Operation ????

Ok my goal this year was to win $10k.

Goal accomplished as of last night.

I realize that some of that might just be from running good. But I also feel like my game has taken off these past couple of months and as long as I can avoid that ugly tilt monkey I don't see why I should suddenly start losing.

So... To all the FTR'ers who have read my posts. What, realistically do you all think is a goal for me to hit?

I picked 30k b/c there were only 2 options. I think you should shoot for 50k.

I believe 50k is very doable for you, providing you put sufficient hours in on the LHE tables, and not spending all of your earnings from ring on the rebuys.

Sorry about the first post. Got disconnected as I was adding more options.

10K/3 months
20K/6 months
30k/9 months
40k/12 months

~or~

Jan 1-Mar 19 = 78 days
10K/78 = 128.2
128.2 X 365 =46,795

~50K

You ARE running good (well, that's the impression I get from your blog) so you need to assume you're not going to be able to keep this up. You also have to face the fact that you'll almost certainly have a lasting downswing at some point too. So give yourself a modest target - hell, you can always upgrade it if you make it early, but a difficult target is more likely to stress you out and could even lead to tilt in itself.

In my experience, the worst pattern of thinking is this:

"cool, I made 20BB/100 for the last 5,000 hands - so I'm going to make my target twice as big as it was before [i.e. the target I created after careful consideration of my expectations]."

"But... shit! 3,000 more hands and I'm $2,000 down! I should be closer to Shiny New Big Target but I'm further away! Oh no! I know, I'll play more hands and play more aggressively and then I'll win the $$$ for sure."

"Oh no! Why did I ever deserrt the style that did so well for me before! 10,000 hands done and not only have I not hit my target, I have LESS than I did before! My confidence is shot - I'm giving up "

(yes, exactly this happened to me last year, and though I'm not even close to being in your league, it was a debastating experience that was extremely hard to take)

If I were you, I would try to come up with a ROI number and go from there. I am no expert, but I hear that 200% or so is maintainable long term. I am sure you keep good records, so just add up all of the buy-ins for the past year, figure your ROI and project that to the next year.

That would probably be the most accurate way of figuring out what is realistic. You will have to tweak it since you are playing bigger buying tourneys now though.

can I vote for set goals during downswing, not upswing. It's early in the year. Biondino is on it.

Originally Posted by Renton

If I were you, I would try to come up with a ROI number and go from there. I am no expert, but I hear that 200% or so is maintainable long term. I am sure you keep good records, so just add up all of the buy-ins for the past year, figure your ROI and project that to the next year.

That would probably be the most accurate way of figuring out what is realistic. You will have to tweak it since you are playing bigger buying tourneys now though.

200% is unrealistic I think.

I believe people like Bax are just over 100%.

70% is a g00t goal for me.

I have been very bad lately about keeping records. It is one of my many leaks.

ok then its simple. Just figure out how much buy in you spend a week, multiply it by 70% and multiply that by how many weeks are left in the year.

There's your number.

I just don't feel it. Is it more fun to make 30k because it was your 'goal'? Are you going to stop there? Of course not. Seems much more logical to set a goal of investing XYZ, playing your best poker and letting the numbers handle themselves. You're inventing new ways to feel bad about losing, and also setting the expectation you'll never have a downswing. Bax's $$ chart doesn't go straight up, I would bet my BR on it.

Keeping records is a much better goal.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=31388

EDIT, check out Scuba thought's here.