Operation: Beat 10NL and actually update my operation

Ever since I moved up to 10nl, I have been really swingy and overall I feel like I am not playing my best. This could be for a number of different reasons, but I think I have identified some leaks that I need to work on, as well as some non playing issues.

My goal is to run at 5ptBB/100 until I reach 25NL at a bankroll of 750. To do that I believe I have to do the following (in order of perceived importance):

1. Stop cbetting so much. At 5nl, my cbet % was really high because people would fold so much it was insanely profitable. Now, I can't just cbet like a monkey so much and its a huge leak.

2. Stop calling so much when I know I am beat/stop two barrelling when its obvious the person hit . This is just retarded.

3. When I have a solid session, stop for the day. This seems counter-intuitive but for my own reasons, I need to get in a groove in order to play well for a long legnth of time. Establishing good habits will lead to better results.

4. Stop 3-betting so much/calling 3bets so much.

5. Relax. Let the money flow my way instead of trying to force things to happen.

6. Analyze my game more and study.

Lets see if I can actually do it!

Wish you all the best mate. I have a few of the same problems as you have in regards to forcing things and getting in the groove, so it will be interesting to see how you get on in tackling these problems. So I'm sure I will be checking in on your progress . Anyway good luck....

GL man, keep that head on straight. It's one of the toughest things to do sometimes that's for sure.

No. 4 is vitally important. It's a rare 10NL player that isn't 3betting you w/KK+.

Good luck, and I'll see you at 25NL in no time!

I'm just not playing well/running well/doing things well. I need to add another item to the list; I'm having some problems with tilt. Luckily, I've been catching myself before it happens too badly; my bankroll is too important to be pissed away.

I think I need to take a couples days away from the table and get my head straight. More to come.

On a side note, I think I may stop posting in the BC for a while and just focus on my operation.

Good luck with your mission. As far as your immediate "Poker Health" goes I overheard/read spoonitnow talking in IRC to another reg. Spoon said what he does when he has a bad run is take 3 days off. Day 1 of the 3 he does nothing to do with poker and then days 2 & 3 he studies and reviews his games. Then he's back to work after that. This seemed like good sound advice IMO.
At anyrate I'm sure you'll do fine!

The break helped a lot. It helped to clear my head, and I am more motivated to play.

I am still only playing shorter sessions to try and "manufacture" a winning streak (taking that from bjsaust). So far it has been working well, and I am only playing when I am in a good frame of mind.

As I have been playing and struggling/running bad/being a spewtard at 10nl, I had a moment where I was taking a walk after some really bad beats, thinking about what my goals are for my play, and why some of my expectations are either unreasonable or hindering my growth as a player.

Right now, I am 22 years old. The player base at FTR seems to be on the younger side, and I see a lot of people in both IRC and on FTR that are much younger than me who are making serious money at the upper levels. Everytime I think about this, I start to feel a little down on myself about how I am only up to 10nl at this point. I start thinking "Hey, what if I had started playing my freshman year in college, I could be making a killing and have already paid off my student loans".

The fact of the matter is, I didn't start playing poker until last June, and I didn't start playing cash until December. From that point, I've gone from 2nl -> 5nl -> 10nl 6max in about 3 months. Thats pretty good. Even if I spend 6 months at 10nl, 25nl, 50nl, 100nl, etc, I am going to be at 200nl by the time I am 24 or 25.

The fact that I could be making around $20-40/hr at 200nl (assuming 5pt BB/100 where I play around 200 hands/hr) as a part time source of income when I am only 25 is so incredibly motivating, its almost stupid to get so upset about running bad right now.

Maybe it takes me till I am 30 to get to 1000nl. Thats almost 9 years of playing poker. But at 30 years old, I could be making $100+/hr sitting in my underwear instead of some stuffy office.

My dream is be able to travel the world with my girlfriend, spending a month or two in a different location and playing poker wherever there is an internet location. I want to be able to save for my children's college educations, pay off my house, and save for retirement all at the same time. I want to buy a Ferrari some day.

To a normal person, on a regular income, all of this isn't possible. But maybe with poker and a regular job for a while, its possible. I could be watching my dreams turn into reality, but instead I am getting down on myself and whining about how I am running bad and my game is stuck in neutral.

Maybe this is egotistical or delusional, but I know that I can do it. I know that I can eventually beat the higher stakes; I can't explain why, its just one of those things that I feel as though I can accomplish.

But I won't get there without keeping my eye on my ultimate goals. Until I just relax and think about the long term and making sure each of my decisions is as +EV as possible, I am going to be stuck in the same cycle.

Poker isn't going anywhere; I have time to accomplish my goals and to get where I want to be. All I have to do is to do the best I can to improve.

Wow quite powerful stuff man lol. I know exactly what your saying as well. I guess poker offers you the same hopes as you may have had as a kid with the whole pro football/baseball/basketball etc. dream but the difference is in poker that it all seems much more tangible, as you hear so many success stories wherever you go for your poker fix. If the motivation to learn and succeed is there along with a cool head and drop of talent then there is no reason any of us on this site can't get where we want to. I'm beginning to think that joining this site is going to be very lucrative for me with all the fantastic advice!! Good luck on your quest dude.

Originally Posted by mieczkowusc

1. Stop cbetting so much. At 5nl, my cbet % was really high because people would fold so much it was insanely profitable. Now, I can't just cbet like a monkey so much and its a huge leak.

2. Stop calling so much when I know I am beat/stop two barrelling when its obvious the person hit . This is just retarded.

3. When I have a solid session, stop for the day. This seems counter-intuitive but for my own reasons, I need to get in a groove in order to play well for a long legnth of time. Establishing good habits will lead to better results.

4. Stop 3-betting so much/calling 3bets so much.

5. Relax. Let the money flow my way instead of trying to force things to happen.

6. Analyze my game more and study.

1. Complete. My cbet percentage is now down to right around 70-75% which I believe is a good number. This has allowed me to avoid getting check-raised off a hand that has decent equity and to delay my cbet till the turn.

2. Complete, but I over-corrected. I have folded the best hands a few times recently, but I feel as though this is an adjustment I needed to make.

3. I have tried to do this, but it never ends up working out, because I constantly want to play more. I have changed my goal to only end my session when the fish I have identified are no longer available for me to extract money out of. If I have 2BI losing session, I am done until I feel as though I can play without going on tilt.

4. I still need to call fewer 3 bets, but I have gotten better about this. My 3bet percentage is slightly lower, and that comes more from 3betting in position and avoiding 3betting out of the blinds unless I have a decent hand.

5. This has gone hand in hand with better table selection. Conventional table selection says that you should be looking for full stacks, which is usually correct. However, at 10nl I have found that most of the people who buy in for full stacks are pretty nitty and somewhat aggressive, which are not the people that I am looking to play against.

I have found (atleast for me) the tables with only 1 or no large stacks and 65-80BB stacks are the fishiest. Therefore, I will tend to try to get position on the 65-80BB stacks, even if it means that a large stack is on my left.

I was breakeven for most of my initial 10k hands at 10nl, until the past 1k hands or so. I was down nearly 11BI in EV as well, until I went on a massive heater. I also cleared my initial deposit bonus so over the course of the last week, so my bankroll has jumped from $270 up to $430 quite quickly. I am still down around 6BI in EV.

I'll post some stats and graphs when I get access to a mouse. The boot camp drivers that allow my trackpad to right click by using two fingers causes the BSOD and I left my mouse at work.

no hands to post?

Originally Posted by mieczkowusc

The fact of the matter is, I didn't start playing poker until last June, and I didn't start playing cash until December. From that point, I've gone from 2nl -> 5nl -> 10nl 6max in about 3 months. Thats pretty good. Even if I spend 6 months at 10nl, 25nl, 50nl, 100nl, etc, I am going to be at 200nl by the time I am 24 or 25. ... Maybe this is egotistical or delusional, but I know that I can do it. I know that I can eventually beat the higher stakes; I can't explain why, its just one of those things that I feel as though I can accomplish.

I admire your confidence and goals. I think many people don't go as far as they could because they don't push themselves and settle for mediocrity. I hope you go as far as you can and as far as you want. But, to play devil's advocate, consider the possibility that you come up short for some reason. Could you be happy playing @ just $10NL or $100NL or even $5NL? Hopefully so. While most people DO fall short because of lack of focus, drive, or effort, people can also max out through simple economics. No matter how talented you are, there is a fixed number, less than half, of players who can succeed at poker at any level and those numbers drop drastically as you step up each rung on the ladder.

Definitely set the bar high and do everything to reach your goals, but be careful about having expectations. Remember the pie is large, but the size of the pie is fixed and everyone is trying to take a bite. Few will be well fed, some will be satisfied, but most will go hungry.

Originally Posted by Jason

I admire your confidence and goals. I think many people don't go as far as they could because they don't push themselves and settle for mediocrity. I hope you go as far as you can and as far as you want. But, to play devil's advocate, consider the possibility that you come up short for some reason. Could you be happy playing @ just $10NL or $100NL or even $5NL? Hopefully so. While most people DO fall short because of lack of focus, drive, or effort, people can also max out through simple economics. No matter how talented you are, there is a fixed number, less than half, of players who can succeed at poker at any level and those numbers drop drastically as you step up each rung on the ladder.

Definitely set the bar high and do everything to reach your goals, but be careful about having expectations. Remember the pie is large, but the size of the pie is fixed and everyone is trying to take a bite. Few will be well fed, some will be satisfied, but most will go hungry.

The simple economics are not so simple however. You assume that the poker economy is a fixed (read: shrinking because of rake) pool, however, there are new players that make deposits every day, and as long as there are enough players coming in to supplant the people that go broke, the money pool will increase.

And to play devils advocate to you, its possible for more than half of the poker population to win. Imagine you have 5 regulars and one fish sitting at a 6max tables. Assuming that the regulars know one another and are really only passing blinds around while isolating the fish, all 5 of the regulars can have a win-rate because of one fish. It won't be as high, and obviously this is a more theoretical situation that what happens in real life, but it is possible.

Personally, I don't know whether the pool is getting bigger or smaller; all that I have control over is my actions and my learning process.

To answer your question, would I be happy if I could only beat 10NL? No, but if after a long period of time it was obvious that I could never beat 25nl or higher, I would probably be content with being a solid winning player at 10nl. To compensate, I would begin to add more tables and although I wouldn't be making as much as someone else, it would still be a source of income from something I enjoy.

Am I confident I could beat 1knl or higher for a respectable win-rate? Absolutely not, and there is no way to tell until I get up to that level. However, I believe that I have the intelligence and focus to learn and expand my knowledge of the game to a very high level.

There is a great story about Arnold Palmer (or another famous golfer, the name isn't important) about having confidence in yourself and the ability to improve.

During a conference after winning a tournament, one of the reportered asked Palmer about a pivotal 3 foot putt on one of the last holes to take the lead. "How do you calm yourself down when there is so much at stake on a single putt?"

Palmer replied "I've never missed a 3 foot putt in my life, so wasn't even thinking about it."

The reporter was confused and replied "Yes you have. You missed a 3 foot putt in the last tournament on the 15th hole. Its on video tape."

Palmer insisted "As far as I can remember, I've never missed a 3 foot putt."

Later on, another pro explained to the reporter that obviously Palmer knew he had missed short putts before. However, when Palmer steps up to another putt, he isn't thinking about the putts he missed, he is focused on what he has to accomplish. He has made so many short putts in his life, that this one is the same as any other.

Its an impossible goal to think that you are never going to miss a putt, or make a mistake, or make a bad read. However, when you have experience on your side, you have the ability and confidence to make decisions without regard to your previous mistakes. Learning from your mistakes is important, but allowing them to affect your play is another thing.

If I didn't believe in myself to learn, grow, and succeed at any level, then (to me) there wouldn't be a point in playing. Its just my personality; I am never going to set arbitrary limits on the extent my own abilities.

This doesn't mean that I don't have a concrete understanding of what I need to improve upon. This also doesn't mean that I think that I am a much better player than I am, because I know that I have a very long way to go before I could think I am a decent player.

All it means, is that my energy is more focused on improving and growing my bankroll than it is on worry about when I am going to max out my skill level. I don't have expectations; I have goals.

Originally Posted by speedcake

no hands to post?

No real hands that I had a hard time with. Most of them were clear mistakes, coolers, or some nice pots that I flopped well in. I play a lot of boring poker, taking down pots with cbets, value betting, etc.

Here are a few nicer ones however.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($2.35)
Hero (SB) ($22.75)
BB ($16.20)
UTG ($6.10)
MP ($17.15)
CO ($4.35)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 2, 2
2 folds, CO calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.05, BB bets $0.50, CO calls $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.50) Q, 9, 2 (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $1.10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3.50, BB raises to $15.70 (All-In), Hero calls $12.20

Turn: ($32.90) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($32.90) 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $32.90 | Rake: $1.60



PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($11)
Button ($10)
SB ($8.70)
Hero (BB) ($12.60)
UTG ($10.30)
MP ($10.20)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, A
3 folds, Button bets $0.40, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.85) 6, 3, A (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $0.70, Hero calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.25) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1.20, Hero calls $1.20

River: ($4.65) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $3, Button raises to $7.70 (All-In), Hero calls $4.70

Total pot: $20.05 | Rake: $0.95



PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($6.60)
BB ($16.20)
UTG ($10)
Hero (MP) ($18)
Button ($13.10)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J, J
UTG bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, 1 fold, SB calls $0.35, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.30) 3, 10, 7 (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $1, SB calls $1, 1 fold

Turn: ($3.30) 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.30, SB calls $2.30

River: ($7.90) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, SB calls $2.90 (All-In)

Total pot: $13.70 | Rake: $0.65


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($10.65)
Button ($10)
Hero (SB) ($9.75)
BB ($6.95)
UTG ($9.65)
MP ($12.60)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, 10
4 folds, Hero bets $0.40, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.80) 9, 8, 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.60, BB raises to $1.20, Hero raises to $9.35 (All-In), BB calls $5.35 (All-In)

Turn: ($13.90) K (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($13.90) 2 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $13.90 | Rake: $0.65

And just to answer your question, I did win that hand with jack high. I was actually had the villain dominated

Yes, it is possible in some scenarios for more than one player to profit from a single player, but those are isolated cases and eventually the money dries up. From what I've heard, Andy Beal isn't playing poker anymore . Just like AA will consistently beat KK, so too will the economics of poker always work out in the long run. The number of new players coming in and old ones dropping out is constantly changing. But, that doesn't change the fact that the % of winning players is generally always fixed. I don't know if you have a poker analysis tool like Hold 'Em Manager or Poker Tracker, but after you log several thousands of hands, filter your results by all players by profit in one query and all players by break-even or loss in another query. It's pretty easy to do and see what the percentage is. By and large, it's pretty close to 40% of winning players for everyone. And even of the 40% winners, many of those are only small winners who would have to be winning @ very high stakes to put food on the table.

Take this hypothetical example of 12 no limit levels from a $2 ($0.01/$0.02) game all the way up to a $10,000.00 ($50.00/$100.00) game. The total player pool is about 400,000 and if you take 40% success from each level, you only get 10 players to sit down @ the biggest game and only 4 of those will be long term winners, too.

Buy-in -> Small Blind -> Big Blind -> Number of Players -> Number of players who can succeed
$2.00 -> $0.01 -> $0.02 -> 238419 -> 95367
$5.00 -> $0.03 -> $0.05 -> 95367 -> 38147
$10.00 -> $0.05 -> $0.10 -> 38147 -> 15259
$25.00 -> $0.13 -> $0.25 -> 15259 -> 6104
$50.00 -> $0.25 -> $0.50 -> 6104 -> 2441
$100.00 -> $0.50 -> $1.00 -> 2441 -> 977
$200.00 -> $1.00 -> $2.00 -> 977 -> 391
$400.00 -> $2.00 -> $4.00 -> 391 -> 156
$600.00 -> $3.00 -> $6.00 -> 156 -> 63
$1,000.00 -> $5.00 -> $10.00 -> 63 -> 25
$5,000.00 -> $25.00 -> $50.00 -> 25 -> 10
$10,000.00 -> $50.00 -> $100.00 -> 10 -> 4


I don't post it to discourage, but just so you and anyone else with similar aspirations at least has a good idea of what you're up against. Yes, there are definitely players out there who make a living playing poker and win consistently @ high stakes to do it, but it's not just a simple matter of deciding to do it. EVERYONE who plays poker wants to succeed. In my operation, "How High Can You Get?", I have set out to see what are the highest stakes I can play @ profitably, but I specifically did not set a goal of where that would be because I just have no way of knowing. My poker potential is hopefully high, but certainly fixed, as is the poker pie of success. I'd love to play in the nose bleeds and make money, but I can't just will myself to the top. Like anything else, it takes hard work, persistence, talent, and even luck.

If you're setting goals, don't have expectations, and can be content like you said, then you're in a good head space, but if anyone thinks, "Hey, I've got ambition and I'm going to be a professional poker player because I want it and have a good feeling about it", I think it's misguided and may just set-up disappointment. I'm not saying YOU are doing that, but SOME players do.