Operation: Ben learns poker and builds a roll

Looks like only 1 table once. I've got 43 hands on him. He managed to lose $35 in those 43 hands, but none of it to me. Looking at his 4 hands over 20BB two I dont like (1 win, 1 loss), ones fairly meh (loss) and the other I quite liked (loss).

If you (or he) are interested I could PM you the hands with thoughts.

TEN PAGES WTF

Does goat have op thread envy?

I'm still learning and building my roll!

Originally Posted by bjsaust

Looks like only 1 table once. I've got 43 hands on him. He managed to lose $35 in those 43 hands, but none of it to me. Looking at his 4 hands over 20BB two I dont like (1 win, 1 loss), ones fairly meh (loss) and the other I quite liked (loss).

If you (or he) are interested I could PM you the hands with thoughts.

sure, send them to my inbox or i could give you my email and we can talk anytime. kind of curious what he did in those hands, he seems like a decent (at least profitable) player, but doesnt discuss many of his played hands with me.... so would like to know haha

FWIW, I am really impressed by your work ethic, Ben, digging out hands to review after every session. It's one of my weaknesses. I don't get to play a ton, so when I do have time at the computer (where HEM is), I wanna GAMBOOL. Anyway, I've only done two serious reviews this month, but I'm going to try to take a page from your book and look at HH's 4 - 5 times by the end of the month and post them in my op thread.

VNH's - 10 pages worth.

Originally Posted by Robb

FWIW, I am really impressed by your work ethic, Ben, digging out hands to review after every session. It's one of my weaknesses. I don't get to play a ton, so when I do have time at the computer (where HEM is), I wanna GAMBOOL. Anyway, I've only done two serious reviews this month, but I'm going to try to take a page from your book and look at HH's 4 - 5 times by the end of the month and post them in my op thread.

VNH's - 10 pages worth.

Good post, Robb. I feel the same way.

I think we need to make a prop bet involving me posting HH with a shitload of MY thoughts on each street. I finally started going over past HH mentally while in bed falling asleep but I think that doesn't work too well. Plus it's great hearing others' thoughts.

Originally Posted by kmind

Originally Posted by Robb

FWIW, I am really impressed by your work ethic, Ben, digging out hands to review after every session. It's one of my weaknesses. I don't get to play a ton, so when I do have time at the computer (where HEM is), I wanna GAMBOOL. Anyway, I've only done two serious reviews this month, but I'm going to try to take a page from your book and look at HH's 4 - 5 times by the end of the month and post them in my op thread.

VNH's - 10 pages worth.

Good post, Robb. I feel the same way.

I think we need to make a prop bet involving me posting HH with a shitload of MY thoughts on each street. I finally started going over past HH mentally while in bed falling asleep but I think that doesn't work too well. Plus it's great hearing others' thoughts.

Maybe March? Sorry, kmind, but I've been really busy and haven't played much lately, like 3 hours total since last Friday. So I might need to wait on a prop bet until I can play some hands to analyze!

I was going to dismiss you guys, because on one hand its really not a big deal as far as effort (work ethic), but it is a big deal to my game. I mean, if I play an hour long session I'd be lucky to spend 10 mins reviewing hands afterwards, so its something everyone can fit in, but it definately has become a habit and one I'd recommend to everyone. Its not like I get super deep, I just browse through my biggest wins/losses, any hands I remember as being interesting, and a few random ones that catch my interest looking through and consider them in peace rather than in the heat of the moment. Often things I consider standard at the time I change my mind later. Its also a good chance to convert the hands and ask someone about them while they're relatively fresh. Pretty much every poker player on my contact list has been called on for that at some point .

Just played a weird session. Started off running hot but not really getting paid, then hit a bad streak of coolers and beats. Worst one was 3-bet flop v's a drooler where I got it in on the flop v's a gutshot and he hit. TPGK v's FD that I value towned myself on when he hit runner runner trips, stuff like that. Managed to run down 3 buyins, then build back up to only one buyin down, then lost a bit more on the end to finish $80 down. Kmind sweated me for the first time, which was interesting. He seemed to feel I played fine just ran bad for a while there. I mean, if the guy hadnt hit his gutshot I'd have finished up $20 so I cant be too dissappointed. In fact, just checked my equity hands (hands where I got all in before river) and the worst I got ai with was as 50% every single other one I was favorite, but lost a 63 and a 70% hands (QQ < AQ summed up how I was running for a while there).

Managed to largely avoid tilt. I did get ai pre with TT v's a 60BB stack which is a bit borderline, but I'd just seen him stack off with 44 v's a shorty, and neither folding nor calling seemed like great options (he had 66 so I was right this time). Think I started openning a little wider in EP than usual and calling a little more out of the blinds, so definately didnt totally avoid it, but largely and got it back under control.

What was interesting was that it seemed to both of us that I was playing fairly laggy, yet my stats at the end were 17/14 (10% 3-bet though). I was doing a heap of isolating, but I think the fact I played so tight in EP and the blinds affects my stats a bit. So I wont get too concerned if my numbers look low sometimes, as long as its working.

Ben - yeah definitely think you played fine for the most part. I wish I could have been more talkative, I think the lag made it a tad difficult to give my thoughts since you were always ahead in hands. Next time for sure I will give more thoughts on stuff. I really thought I did a shitty job but I mean most spots were pretty standard in my eyes and you played basically how I would have, just ran bad.

God, I feel kinda sick. Just lost almost 3 buyins to be break even for the month again. Some of it tilty, but damn...

- 2P v's maniac bet monkey who hits runner runner boat
- TP v's maniac bet monkey who hits set on river
- Overpair v's maniac who hits set on river
- AA < T8o ai pf
- KK < AA v's guy with 30% 3-bet.

Add on two hands v's bluff monkeys where I had TPGK and they hit flushes. I probably should have folded one or both of them, but they bluff so often its hard to. Probably tilt induced calls though, which really cost.


No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($50)
Hero (Button) ($78.75)
SB ($32.40)
BB ($11)
UTG ($86.90)
MP ($45.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, A
UTG raises $1.75, 2 folds, Hero raises $6, 2 folds, UTG calls $4.25

Flop: ($12.75) 9, 3, 9 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($12.75) A (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $7, UTG raises $33.75, Hero calls $26.75

River: ($80.25) 4 (2 players)
UTG bets $47.15 (All-In), Hero calls $39 (All-In)

Total pot: $158.25


Guy is 56/30/5 with 100% raise c-bet over 50 hands. So small sample. Being 150 bbs deep I really think I should have folded turn, but I thought theres a good chance he's bluffing/semi-bluffing/worse A. I'll think about it some more later I guess, but fairly sure its bad.

I still think thats bad. Hard not to be results oriented, but I'm fairly sure it is.

I'm away for a few days. I normally try to play a bit in my hotel room while travelling, but remembered I cancelled my dial-up acct, so wont be on for a while.

Something I've been thinking of. As mentioned a few times, I'll often show a hand to one of the better players and get their thoughts. At the time I think "wow, that makes sence". Now I'm not saying I forget what they say, but I probably dont reinforce it either. I'm thinking what I really should do after such conversations is to actually document the hand and summarise the conversation. Whether I do it here, in a word doc on my PC, or just plain in a notebook or something. I think that might really help.

How much was the guy stealing in the last hand?

From what I could figure he was raising pretty much all bets postflop where he called preflop, however I only had 50 hands total on him. I dunno, if he'd had a worse A or a FD I probably pat myself on the back as a genius, but losing 150 BBs like this just seems stupid (QJs).

Like I say, no internet in my room last night so watched some old vids I'd downloaded and never watched and just thought poker for a bit. I watched the RL NL Grinder eps 3, and there was some really good discussion. I realised afterwards, that if I'm going to benefit from watching stuff like that, I really need to "study" it. Like I was saying before about recording my conversations, I need to take the interesting parts of the videos and record them also. I have a fairly good brain, but I cant rely on it remembering every little spot that I've seen talked about once. This lead me down another side path. One reason I've been unkeen to take on any coaching, is that I dont feel I'd take full benefit from it. Maybe a video review kind of thing I could watch multiple times, but in general I'm sure guys like ISF and Zook could give me a lot of great info in a couple hrs of coaching, but I'm not sure I'll remember it all enough to benefit from it properly. I'm thinking if I can get into the habit of recording and reviewing discussions/vids/etc, then I can more confidently get some coaching and know I'll record the good stuff and study it later to make sure it sinks in. I'm leaning towards doing that once I'm comfortably at 100nl (say around $3k roll).

Another thought going back to a conversation with Griffey (and a great example of why I need to record this stuff because I cant remember the exact circumstances), I think we were talking about spots where I was delay c-betting medium strength hands because I felt our opponent folds a lot and only calls with better. Now if his calling range is largely reduced to a tight range of nut/near nut hands, I should be bluffing that spot like a monkey. Now the general concept applies, if there are spots where I dont think theres much value betting, then I should be bluffing those spots a LOT. I think I need to start looking for those kinds of spots and taking advantage of them.

One last thought, I pretty much never c/r. Maybe occassionally on the flop if I have a set and think they'll c-bet almost 100% and probably call, but I dont think I've ever, ever c/r'd a river. I think I lose a lot of value in that spot. It was one talked about in the video I watched. You check turn for deception or a c/r opportunity, but then when they dont bet turn like you expect you throw out a desperation value bet on the river instead of following on your plan and letting him bluff his draws.

Plenty to think about. Definately time to start getting serious about all this again though.

Watched another two vids last night. Some good notes on one, nothing much on the other. I seem to find minimal benefit from ones where people actually just play. Maybe its because they dont get a lot of time to discuss points.

Quick note I hadnt mentioned. When I came back I talked about either playing all or a lot of FR. That didnt last long at all. I'm fully playing 6-max again now. Would like to play a few donkaments from time to time, but every time I check Everest only has like 5 people registered .

First off congratulations on keeping this operation going to 10 pages. Good shit!

Originally Posted by bjsaust

Watched another two vids last night.

I always see people speaking about viewing videos. Who makes these videos and where are you watching them?

Originally Posted by bjsaust

Guy is 56/30/5 with 100% raise c-bet over 50 hands. So small sample. Being 150 bbs deep I really think I should have folded turn, but I thought theres a good chance he's bluffing/semi-bluffing/worse A. I'll think about it some more later I guess, but fairly sure its bad.

I don't hate it. I feel like, even though you only have 50 hands on this player that you almost feel obligated to call because of his constand aggression and looseness. I would have done the same thing. But that doesn't make it right, lol. I'm guessing he had AK or 33. Leaning more on the 33 side because I feel he would be more likely to check his set on that flop (betting when he doesn't have it, checking when he does).

Well there are some on here, but I bought a 6-month subscription to DuecesCracked a while back, so I'm watching videos from there. They have a download option so rather than downloading and watching regularly I tend to forget about it for a while then go back and queue a bunch up in my download manager to watch later. Generally I'll download the first episode of an interesting looking series and if it seems good I'll get the rest.

Guy in that hand had QJs for a turned flush. I dont normally 3-bet AQ, but with his stats I figured I was definately ahead of his range and he'd call with worse.

Back home, played a bit today. Been thinking about trying to bluff a bit more, looking for spots. Tried a few today, thought I'd post and see what you think...


Hand 1

This guy is tightish around 20/18 but 3-bet of around 25-30% (smallish sample). Planning to c/r a lot of flops, gutshot + Backdoor FD seemed good. Not a great deal of equity but some and I think he folds a lot anyway. Didnt do it intentially, but we ended up on turn with a PSB behind (him) and I picked up the FD so just stuck it in.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($60.90)
Hero (MP) ($95.95)
Button ($56.85)
SB ($37.43)
BB ($50)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9, 8
1 fold, Hero raises $1.75, Button raises $3, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.25

Flop: ($6.75) 10, 6, 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $6.75, Hero raises $15, Button calls $8.25

Turn: ($36.75) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $77.95 (All-In)



Hand 2

This guys is one of those bad tags who gets too aggressive in the wrong spots. Steals a very large percentage 6 handed and I figure 3-handed he's close to ATC here and he c-bets like 90%. Plan to take a lot away postflop. Flop didnt seem like a good place, so I choose to float. Turn seemed like a good spot, I can easy enough have a FD in my range on flop and even a Q floating. Rivers a bit more tricky, since now the FD is more in his range, but I guess I could easily be semi-bluffing it on turn. I obviously have no chance of winning at showdown so figure a b/f is good here?


No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (3 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($62.20)
Button ($56.85)
SB ($125.07)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4, 3
1 fold, SB raises $1.25, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($3) 9, 9, 5 (2 players)
SB bets $2, Hero calls $2

Turn: ($7) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4, SB calls $4

River: ($15) 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $10



Hand 3

I liked the way I played this one. BB is mega-fish and irrelevant beyond taking his money. UTG is about 16/7 or something. At first I thought I'd check behind turn, but figured his range was more draws than pairs. River is a bit tough out of position. Betting cant be good v's his calling range, so c/c would be standard but pot has grown enough to make that uncomfortable. He's fairly passive postflop so I figure I need to check anyway and I'll evaluate if need be (ok, not the best plan).

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($44.70)
BB ($5)
UTG ($56.85)
Button ($141.57)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, 10
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises $1.75, BB calls $1.50, UTG calls $1.50

Flop: ($6) J, 10, 5 (3 players)
Hero bets $3, BB calls $3 (All-In), UTG calls $3

Turn: ($15) 8 (3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero bets $8, UTG calls $8

River: ($31) 6 (3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero checks, UTG checks

Total pot: $31

Results:
Hero had K, 10 (one pair, tens).
BB had 7, Q (high card, Queen).
UTG had Q, K (high card, King).
Outcome: Hero won $29.45



Hand 4

One last one, although I have one to post in strangest hands in tales of poker. I liked the way I played this too. Villain is a TAG bordering on LAG, something like 30/25. Weirdly aggressive in spots. Something like 12% 3-bet over largish sample (around 19% from the blinds) and just picks strange spots like this to get aggro. Flop I figure his range is draws or 2P+ hands. When he checks turn I figure he's more likely drawing than a monster looking for a double c/r (possibly a weaker A that plays weird and now decides to pot control). River I figure I've overtaken his weaker 2P hands and really doubt he has a set after turn so try to get some value from his weaker Aces or 2P hands. Not sure about bet sizing on river, thoughts?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($49.75)
SB ($48.25)
BB ($70.80)
UTG ($49.25)
MP ($131.82)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A
2 folds, Hero raises $1.50, SB calls $1.25, BB calls $1

Flop: ($4.50) J, A, 2 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $3.50, 1 fold, BB raises $7, Hero calls $3.50

Turn: ($18.50) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10, BB calls $10

River: ($38.50) K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $18, 1 fold

Total pot: $38.50

Results:
Hero didn't show K, A (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $54.60



Overall I didnt feel great playing. Fairly late night last night. Sucked out on one guy I thought was isolating wide but he had KK and my 66 I c/c to river with hit a gutshot and I shoved it in and he called. Some really weird play. Only got on 4 tables and one of them was FR, really quiet . Stacked another guy with AA v's bottom pair, but I'll post that one in tales of poker.

You need to work on bet sizing imo. Your missing so much value, sessions where you win $40 you should of won $70.

I will be contacting you soon!

lol

Thanks almost purely to Da GOAT I just had my 3rd most profitable session ever, by far my most profitable session at 50nl, and 2nd most profitable in $/hr session behind a 100nl session. $227 in 247 hands over 30 minutes .

Ok, so maybe it wasnt totally due to DG, but I was definately betting larger in a lot of spots and getting the calls I wanted. I think this helped my medium pot hands end up nicely larger to help add up. I should post some examples, but I'm a bit too excited just now.

I ran a bit above EV, which is a topic I want to talk about, but maybe later. For now I'll just be happy . Heres one semi-interesting hand, thoughts about river c/r shove?
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($49.20)
Button ($72.75)
Hero (SB) ($54.95)
BB ($49)
UTG ($23.95)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, 8
2 folds, Button bets $1.75, Hero calls $1.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($4) 8, A, 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($4) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $3, Hero calls $3

River: ($10) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $7, Hero raises $50.20 (All-In)

Is there a value amount he'll call that he wont call the shove with? More to the point, enough of them to make a smaller amount higher EV?

I doubt it. If he has a boat, a flush, or a straight it's likely he calls the shove. An ace might call a minraise.

I'm off to examine my betsizing.

Yeah, me too, if bet-sizing earns like that, I'm in!!

Agreed. The chance of me having a boat are fairly unlikely, so I think most flushes and all boats will call and the rest probably fold to a smallish raise anyway unless its like a min-raise, and I think my EV of shoving is a fair bit higher.


Ok, I want to try to put some thoughts together on EV. Every time I hear people complaining about running below EV I tend to feel a bit guilty. See, I tend to run above EV so far. Not always, I've had my bad spells, but over all hands in my DB I'm running significantly ahead, over this year I'm a couple buyins ahead, and I was well ahead erlier this month, although right now I'm about break even only slightly ahead.

Heres the thing, some people do just run horrid. I think I saw irisheyes at $20k below EV at one point, you see people running 20 buyins behind over large samples, stuff like that. Thats really running below EV. Kmind tells me he lost 9 flips in a row, if they were proper flips (around 45-55% equity imo) then thats running bad. In my personal experience though, EV isnt that simple. I tend to run above EV when I get my money in good, and below EV when I get my money in bad. Basically because my good hands hold and my bad hands dont improve. Lets take a basic example:

Playing 100nl I get dealt AA three times in a row and get ai pre v's smaller PPs each time. I'm 80% to win each hand and I hold up each time. My EV is actually $240, but in fact I've won $300, so I'm now running $60 ahead of EV. LIkewise if I had JJ in each of those 3 hands and got it in v's bigger PPs each time and lost then I've lost $300 but my EV is only -$240, so I'm running behind EV.

So what I tend to do, is look at my equity hands. In my HEM sessions tab I just sort by Equity % and review them. In reality, I'm more concerned about how often I got my money in good v's bad. There are exceptions of course, but if I have more Equity %'s above 50 than below I'm happy, however my EV went. Around that 40-60% mark I dont care a lot since I'll almost always have had odds to make it correct anyway. If I have a lot more red than green lines in that area though, then I figure I've run bad, and if more than 1 or 2 in the > 60 or < 40 where I ran against probability then I either ran good or bad also.

So EV is an interesting stat, and I think the bigger the sample, and the larger the deviation the more meaningful it is in a 'run bad' or 'run good' kind of way, however I think its also important to be concious of whether you're below EV because you keep getting your money in good and losing, or whether you're getting your money in bad a lot and not improving as much as you should. That sucks, but perhaps you should avoid getting your money in bad so much if thats the case.

Something to think about anyway.

lol nice run dude

Reviewed the hands, only one for the session for a full stack (and that was bluff catching basically). Just heaps of middle sized pots, combined with very few losing hands beyond 10bbs. Thats where bet sizing helped. So obviously ran hot as hell, but not in a "flop monsters, stack off" way, but more in that every time I thought someone was bluffing they were, combined with I think folding losing hands early. That and chasers rarely getting there,

7 buyins up over last 700 hands or so.

Great run, keep it up... and maybe update your graphic :P

About the +EV, -EV thing:
Luck doesn't even out, it averages out. If you run 10 buyins below EV for 10k hands (and don't commit sepuku) then your expected to be 10 buyins below EV after 100k hands. The only difference is that 10 buyins over 100k hands is hardly worthy of sepuku.

Usually these long runs of running below EV contain one or two really bad spots, then everything else is pretty neutral.

another good run??

good job

All part of the same run . I plan to update the graphic when I actually get above $2k, but its darned close now.

Isnt it funny how our mind works differently depending on how we're running. When you're running bad you're happy with a +$2 session. Anything in the green is a win. When you're running hot you want big wins. I was $110 short of my normal moveup point for 100nl (even if I make it earlier I'm deferring to March due to my prop bet with kmind). Its the weekend, sure its pretty late, but dammit I should have another big winning session because...well because I've had a couple and I want another one!! Tables are bad, surrounded by TAGs and regs, some of whom give me some troubles (or at least lets say some I havnt gotten the better of yet). Few fishies, poor position on the ones that are there. I really should just cancel the session, but someone somewhere said sometimes you should play v's the regs to improve your game, and dammit I want a big winning session and its Sunday arvo for me so I might not get another chance today (thats called justification, not good reasoning)!!

Anyway, I play fairly well, run very well, suckout huge in one pot (played fine but one huge suckout when I 4-bet KK to the guy who 3-bets me 20% and he flats in SB leaving PSB behind and flop a monotone flop with me having the K high FD so just stick it in and he calls with AA with the NFD and I hit my 2 outer and dodge the flush). A few loosish calls, but I need to review yet to see if there was anything too bad. To get to the point I win $85 on bad tables and walk away wishing I'd got the extra $25 even though I had crushing results in a session I shouldnt have.

You know, back in march I was trying to move up from 25nl to 50nl on stars. I was running hot and was $40 from my goal of $1500. I had played like 6 hours that day, which is way more than I normally do. I was really tired, but it was early yet, and late at night the games get better right?

I proceeded to play 2 hours and lose ~7 buyins, then go on a 3 day losing streak. It just seems to me that we all get way too caught up in results.

Yeah. I wonder if its like that for the high stakes guys. Do you get to a point where thats not the case?

On a related note, I get way too affected emotionally by my results. I really need to work on that. I'm on top of the world after a good session, and in the dumps after a bad one. A few days ago I lost like 6 buyins in a day (over 2 sessions) to drop me to break even for the month and was nearly ready to quit poker...because I was break even over 4.5k hands. Ridiculous, but a day like that really kicks me in the guts. Now I've had a few good days and I'm planning my inevitable triumphs and BR achievements. Its just silly, but it happens. Really messes with my moods in the rest of my life which is a real problem. Its inevitable that it will have some effect, we should feel good after a winning session, and probably cant help feeling even a little bad after a bad one, but not the extremes I do. Talking to others its fairly common I think.

wto be in a mood depends on how i lose. i can be fine losing 3 BIs if i just lose flips or variance fucked but im in a mood if i make a mistake esp if i knew i was making one.

That plays into it, but even if I feel I played perfect and had a bad session I'm shitty for hours afterwards.

I think almost everyone around here has poker affecting their emotions. I always hate myself for letting the game affect my mood for the day, I can´t get to sleep after really bad sessions and am usually very happy and in good mood after winning several buy ins. Then again, Im not a very emotional personality and somehow enjoy poker inducing feeling good or bad, where I am just rational and emotionally detached in my every day life. Its interesting, how it´s not primarily about the money, but on losing a competition itself. I get the same emotional swings, when I´m doing well or bad in any other competition.

What XTR said. I'm like you, Ben, except I stay pretty happy with small winning sessions when I'm runnin' hot. I think of it as a hot streak plateauing for a moment. But yeah, when I lose a couple sessions in a row it really ruins a whole day.

Oh dont get me wrong, I dont get upset by small wins when I'm running hot. More a comment on my expectations. I expect to win big when I'm running hot.

Good posts, Ben. A lot of the stuff you mention hits home and it feels good to relate.

Originally Posted by kmind

Good posts, Ben. A lot of the stuff you mention hits home and it feels good to relate.

^^^this

Originally Posted by bjsaust

Ok, I want to try to put some thoughts together on EV. Every time I hear people complaining about running below EV I tend to feel a bit guilty. See, I tend to run above EV so far.

...

I tend to run above EV when I get my money in good, and below EV when I get my money in bad. Basically because my good hands hold and my bad hands dont improve.

I've been thinking about the post I'm quoting from a lot. The EV BB stat just seriously tilts me. So I liked this post for a completely different perspective. I was looking at being +EV as having gotten "lucky" winnings, not just as the natural result of getting my money in good quite a bit.

Originally Posted by bjsaust

Perhaps you should avoid getting your money in bad so much if that's the case.

Something to think about anyway.

I liked the idea of reviewing the EV Diff hands, finding out when we got in ahead and lost, and how we got it all-in way behind.

I will just say one thing - there are times when I kinda like the EV stat, like today, up 1.5 BI over 1k hands in two sessions, running about 2 ptBB/100 below EV. But I know I got sucked out on a couple of times and coolered once. So I think of the EV stat as just reminding me about variance.

Anyway, sorry to jack up your thread with rambling. But I have been thinking a lot about your post. Gotta stop letting that stat get in my head so much

Weird confession after me just talking about how I usually expect to win big after running hot, however today I've been too scared to play. I've run so well and won so much I dont want to lose it, and since I'm a little tired I'm too nervous to even open up some tables .

Hah...the exact same thing happens to me when im running good. Im so afraid of the heater ending to the point where im to scared to play. Once I load up the tables i forget about it all though, and just play pokaz.

Bleh, maybe its not such a bad idea to not play when I'm not feeling great.

Down 2.5 buyins today, and that included winning 2 buyins in a single hand. Ran horribly, but some bad play too. Had a terrible fish on my right on one table who I gave about 3 buyins to. He shoves with 99 I call with AA and he hits. He calls flop with 22 on 996 flop and hits a 2 on turn. Hits a boat when I hit a straight, and so on. Other than that, just some bad calls, and negative variance combined. KK v's AA against a 40/40 drooler. 78 v's 86 on 824 v's drooler who shoves and he hits runner runner flush. Dammit all.

Cleared some bonus so roll is $1900 even though that doesnt count in prop bet.

Got a head cold, ankles still not right, havnt been sleeping well. I think I need to recover a bit

Originally Posted by bjsaust

Got a head cold, ankles still not right, havnt been sleeping well.

????????????????????????

I don't understand...you said you played poker and then you said you had this stuff. You should only have one at a time if you know what I mean.

STOP PLAYING WHEN THOSE CONDITIONS OCCUR.

Yeah, I know, and I should have known. Its this damned dilemma between not playing much and not wanting to play when things arent right. That said when things have been right I've crushed and when they havnt I've lost.

I think the answers right there

It's a great time to play .01/.02 PLO IMO.

Maybe something like thats the answer. A $2 donkament or something.

Did it again last night. I swear I'm not playing again till I'm healthy.

Originally Posted by bjsaust

Bleh, maybe its not such a bad idea to not play when I'm not feeling great.

Down 2.5 buyins today, and that included winning 2 buyins in a single hand. Ran horribly, but some bad play too. Had a terrible fish on my right on one table who I gave about 3 buyins to. He shoves with 99 I call with AA and he hits. He calls flop with 22 on 996 flop and hits a 2 on turn. Hits a boat when I hit a straight, and so on. Other than that, just some bad calls, and negative variance combined. KK v's AA against a 40/40 drooler. 78 v's 86 on 824 v's drooler who shoves and he hits runner runner flush. Dammit all.

Cleared some bonus so roll is $1900 even though that doesnt count in prop bet.

Got a head cold, ankles still not right, havnt been sleeping well. I think I need to recover a bit

Sounds like we had similar fish beattttt downs. damn fish!

get better!

Thanks. Actually woke up worse today than yesterday, taking the day off work, and going to have to force myself to take it off poker also..

Originally Posted by kmind

Originally Posted by bjsaust

Got a head cold, ankles still not right, havnt been sleeping well.

????????????????????????

I don't understand...you said you played poker and then you said you had this stuff. You should only have one at a time if you know what I mean.

STOP PLAYING WHEN THOSE CONDITIONS OCCUR.

Wow, if I quit when my condition was this good, I would never play. No joke. But we know how bad I've been playing as of late.

Sigh Jyms...you are constantly feeling like shit?

Not the right thread for me to post it but short answer, hell yea. physically, not mentally though.

Sucks. I feel crap in both. Like my brains full of cotton wool.

All I know is that Ben just gave me his cold dammit.

The good news: Played a $2.20 rebuy to waste time and won for $150

The bad news: Got bored and played some other tournies and some ring and lost about $150 at the same time.

God I suck. I'm starting to question me and poker.

Hey Ben, seems like you are forgeting to manage your emotions. If you feel bad you play bad then feel even worse etc etc. I try not to get down on myself. Enough people are happy to do it but i am the only person who wont ever be down on me. Perhaps you post should have read
Won $150 playing a tournie, as usual lost it again but what the hell. I won a tournie!!!!!!!

Yeah, you know it, I know it, and everyone reading this Op knows it. Hell, I wrote about only a couple days ago. Doesnt mean its easy to do though .

I went through a bunch of hands with kmind, and they were all kind of marginal. Not bad, just kept losing in marginal spots. When I run good, I win in those marginal spots. And OMG I'm absolutely sick of spew monkeys hitting sets on the river. They have like 100% bet on all streets so I call them down with TP type hands and they've got something like 33 that hits a 3 on the river. Must have happenned like 10 times in the last couple days. Its where poker messes with your head, if I raised them that wouldnt happen, but theres more EV in letting someone like that barrel away with 2 outs then pushing them out of the pot. It just sucks though. I've also had people hit way too many gutshots on me.

Still, what I think it is, is like Fnord says, everyone plays a couple stinkers every session. When I'm winning those stinkers just mean I dont win quite so much so I dont care much. When I'm losing though, I really curse those plays and let them get into my head.

Do have to try to work on it, just...not too sure how.

Originally Posted by bjsaust

The good news: Played a $2.20 rebuy to waste time and won for $150

The bad news: Got bored and played some other tournies and some ring and lost about $150 at the same time.

God I suck. I'm starting to question me and poker.

Nah you don't suck Ben, sucking is not realising or questioning what's going on. You'll sort this. Just need to carry on with that questioning and searching until you find the answer. Gl!

Positive comment on the tourney: I rocked!!

I only won about 2 hands prior to the FT. KK ai on about the 3rd hand to a gambling shove monkey (ATs), and then JJ ai v's AK v's AK when I had 10bbs left on 2 tables to go I think. A few blind steals along the way but nothing exciting. Anyway, there was one guy that the whole tourney basically centered around. HUD wasnt working, but he must have been about 65/5 and just bet/bluff/call...I'll call him a maniac but mainly I dont think anyone could figure out wtf he was doing, but he kept winning lots of chips. Now I think back I think I won a few medium pots before the FT when he limped in and I picked off bluffs with 2nd pair type hands. I felt I got real good reads on him, came into the FT 4/10 think I dropped to 6/6 by the time 4 were out, then I went on my rush. Kept min-raising PF, this guy would call and I'd outplay him postflop. Pushed him off his weak bluffs when I had air, called him down when I didnt, and folded when he had something. Noone else could read him, benefits of only 1 tabling at the end I guess. Final three I started with 40k chips, another guy had 30k and he had about 120k. By the time we got HU I had the chip lead and hadnt shown down better than TPGK. Then I got lucky to finish him. Had him 160k to 80k ish. Minraise QJs, he minraised back (something he didnt do often). Flop KXX and he just minbet which I read as weak so raised him but he called. Turn a T and he minbet again so I put out almost PSB expecting him to fold but he didnt. River my A and he shoves (just because he's weak wont stop him making terrible bluffs), I call with my straight and he shows JJ. So I read him right as weak but was wrong to expect him to fold something that strong. So lucky on the last hand, but I had him under control and really felt good about how I played it.

Woke up this morning so decided to give this a shot: http://www.everestpoker.com/en/promo/three-of-a-kind

I normally do well at going deep in tournies, so felt I was a good shot at picking up some kind of bonus and who knows, maybe a big one! 4 hands in on one table and I get KK ai v's TT pre and he hits a set. Ahh well, probably no big bonus but maybe the 2 FT one!! Then 30 mins later with 20BBs I get ai AK v KK v AQ pre, ldo AQ wins. Still got one table running but I'm just playing for the win there now.

I did however play about 10 mins of 4 cash tables to fill in time and won about $28 to cover the cost of the buyins plus some extra. OMG the tables rock at this time of the day. Would be a dozen over 40% vpip and 20 or more over 30%. Each table I got on had at least 2 50%+ guys on it. I think I should work on organising my day so I can get up early more often and play.

[edit]Bleh just split KK v TT ai pre again on last tourney with a straight on the board.

Shitty spot, thoughts?


16/14 over 100 hands, 3/3 bet when checked to by PFR IP.

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (UTG) ($90.50)
CO ($117.58)
BTN ($56.45)
SB ($50.00)
BB ($52.70)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 5 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, 1 fold, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($5.75, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets $5, SB folds, Hero raises to $15, CO calls $10

Turn: ($35.75, 2 players)
Hero bets $20, CO raises to $95.75

$53 to hero.

WTF is wit flop cring? Barrel till he raises

Yea, bet that flop 3 way. Given stacks I prolly fold turn without hesitation.

Well, I've made last minute plans to be away for the weekend, so my month is over. Total profit from ring games: $87. I think kmind wins our prop bet pretty easy . Given I was up almost $500 at one point, I'm not too happy with that. Two other sessions before that where I lost 4+ buyins from basically tilt and it becomes pretty obvious where my leaks are. I've really gotta work out this mental side. I should be crushing here...

Been doing some investigations on my sessions, the six sessions I've played the most hands have all been losing session. Not necessarily the longest sessions, but the most hands. I've been trying to creep up to 8 tables and its just not working. For March I stick to 6. I start doing some stop losses also I think.

$50 bonus, and up about $80 from tournaments I think, so about $200 profit for the month. Not terrible, but I'm $300 off 100nl still and I should be there easily. Not very happy tbh.


As for the KK hand, yeah I dont know guys. That was the end of a session when I was ready to quit after about 450 hands but decided to push through to 500 to get an estimate on how many bonus points I earnt from that many. Good example of where I just seem to lose the plot when not mentally right. The nitty TAG had 23s somehow. WTF!

Went to post graph and stats and my server hosting got switched a month or so back and I just realised my user/pass to my backend doesnt work anymore, so hopefully I can sort that out. The fact I've cancelled the email account I used as my contact email in the meantime might complicate things though...

Anyway, Feb was a weird month. On one hand I wish I'd played more hands (just short of 9k), on the other I wish I'd played less because it was sessions I shouldnt have played but forced myself to that hurt my results so much.

I have problems, spoken about them a bunch lately. Right now I could almost quit poker, but if I'd finished the month on a winning note I'd probably be positive instead. I need to work on my emotions at the table and away. This is something I thought I was on top of a while back. Bah, I'm tired and having trouble organising all my thoughts coherently so just going to list a bunch:

1. No more prop bets for now. I dont want anything affecting my decisions other than whats best for my BR.

2. I dont play well v's decent regs. Not so much bad, but just not that great. Too many fish to do this for now.

3. I dont play well deep. I'll seriously consider leaving tables where I get deep and dont feel like its worth it. I stack off too light.

4. I think I'm going to try to adjust my schedule and get the bulk of my playing done in the mornings when more players (more fish) on, and less in the nit/tag infested afternoons.

5. I may implement a stoploss. I know this doesnt fix problems, but I used to be good at spotting my own tilt, lately not so much.

6. No more than 6 tables at once. I think every session I went above this I lost this month. In fact I did some play in HEM and this month the 5 sessions with the most hands were all losing, and all time the 6 sessions with the most hands played were all losing. Not as close a tie with time, but was definately there with hands.

7. When I play well I crush on Everest. I need to worry less about hands and qualifying for bonus tiers, because those things matter less than the edge I get when I'm playing well.

8. I play well v's fish. I need to make sure I have 1-2 at least per table. If theres only 6 tables running (and sometimes there is), I'm still not going to play on the ones without obvious fish just to have all 6 tables up.

9. Less floating.

10. More cbetting.

11. More 3-betting.

12. Back into my exercise. Thinking I'll get up early, workout, shower, grab brecky and try to get a morning session in (hard Mon-Wed since wife starts work those days this week so I'll be watching son).


So in short, rework my schedule and stick to it. Play when I feel good, not when I dont. Table select. Dont try to force hands in. Address some of my leaks. I should also post a few more hands.

Hmm, short version sounds pretty much like obvious I should do anyway.

get confidence back man, we do a rail if you wanna set a time. msn me

Yeah good luck Ben looking forward to seeing your up March graph in 30 days. btw if you want any temporary/permenant hosting just let me know I can sort you out some free hosting.

Hey man don't fret. I completely understand where you are coming from with your attitude towards poker, it can be really frustrating. But fuck it man we are moving up to midstakes and beyond soon, this time is for real. Hope you watched some Stox videos. Also, I'll IM you later as one of those points seems the opposite of what I have been doing (with success) this month.

OK, heres my graph and stats, let me know if I should shrink the images or something.






Just dumb. I hate it when my graph looks like that. From memory I think the second sharp downswing was just coolers/beats, but the rest all had a fair amount of tilt type stuff going on.

I assume you were talking about c-bet after reading your Op kmind. 43% c-bet and only 43% success. That just seems weird. Two possible explanations:

1 - People dont notice I'm nitty as hell.

2 - A huge part of my game is isolating fish (mainly calling stations) and so I dont c-bet much at them when I flop air and I get called a lot by them when I do c-bet because...well thats the whole point.

Hopefully its the second one. I still figure theres room to increase it though.

3-bet seems a little low but could be sample size, I did do a fair bit of 3-bet bluffing.

vs 3-bet Call% is higher than I'd like, I've been really working on getting that down (used to be like 75%). Maybe just small sample size, or perhaps I lost it a bit towards the end of the month.

I can probably open a little wider on the button and a little tighter in the SB. Maybe a touch wider in the CO also? Stats definately seem nittier than I expected, although when I sit at tables full of tags I tend to tighten up. That could be a mistake (although hopefully not a big one if I start avoiding that situation more).

Feels like I have so much to talk about. Whole areas of my game I need to work on. Maybe I'll submit this for now and add some standalone posts later.

First session of the month down, finished when I was presented with an ideal opportunity to practise quitting instead of risking tilt. Almost an hour into a slightly profitable session (about $30 up I think), and had just split AA v AA on another table:

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($50)
UTG ($5)
MP ($41.80)
CO ($88.21)
Button ($4.25)
SB ($42.65)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, K
UTG bets $2, 1 fold, CO calls $2, 1 fold, SB raises $42.40 (All-In), Hero calls $42.15, UTG calls $3 (All-In), 1 fold

Flop: ($92.30) 2, 8, 4 (3 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: ($92.30) 7 (3 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($92.30) 10 (3 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $92.30

Results:
SB had 6, A (flush, Ace high).
Hero had K, K (one pair, Kings).
UTG had A, K (high card, Ace).
Outcome: SB won $89.30

I feel like I'm updating too often. After this one I promise to slow down.

I just had a big chat to Jyms on msn about stuff (well, after talking went to the gym and then showered). I basically feel like I'm having a lot of the same problems he is, just not on the same scale. I know he's been working hard at it, so thought he might have some advice/thoughts. During the chat I realised a bunch of things I thought I'd note down.

Yes my emotions are causing problems, but somethings causing those emotions. I didnt have the problems before this year, so why now? I think:

a) I'm suffering from a feeling of entitlement. I feel I'm so much better than most of my opponents that I take it personally when I lose. I'm entitled to win so therefore I go on tilt trying to win it back.

b) I think I'm suffering from a feeling of desperation. Even though I havnt put timelines on myself, I just feel like if I dont start reaching my monetary goals soon (regular withdrawals) that I'm just wasting my time. Every time I lose a big pot or have a bad session it feels like I'm that much further away from my goals and therefore its that much more likely that I'm just wasting time. In my mind a break even month is as good as failure. Heck, a not very profitable month is.

Those are the main reasons I'm getting so emotionally affected by poker at the moment I think. Its not even that rational. I've already made a decent withdrawal paying back poker and buying my first item. When I get emotionally affected I lose more which puts me even further away from my goals.

One thing we discussed, is how if you keep doing the same thing, you keep getting the same results. Well what I've been doing has gotten me to the 50/100nl type level, but its not showing signs of moving me past there. I need to look at whats required to be a winning 400nl player and do it.

At some point poker moved from being a fun pastime that hopefully would earn a little money, to being part of my financial plan. If I'm going to be serious about it (not fulltime, but serious), then I need to treat it so. I need to come up with a plan to improve and gain the understanding of poker thats required to beat it at the levels I want to beat it at, and then implement it.

I think for me personally, this means planning it into my life. Rather than squeezing it in when I feel like a break or have some spare time, it has to become part of my day like work, workouts, meals, family time, etc. Not just playing, in fact probably more importantly, the study side of it. The flip side of this is I need to let it go when its not poker time. Devote plenty of my time to the rest of my life so it doesnt overwhelm me and I burn out. I'm going to try to cut down on how much time I spend on FTR, study more, and work on my game in a structured way.

Some planning still required there, but actually studying instead of watching (or not watching) videos will be a part of it.

Some interesting notes:

- There were times last month I felt I couldnt concentrate enough to watch a video so played poker instead (WTF!)
- I've never once done a proper equity/range calculation.
- I've never played with ranges/equity in pokerstove beyond a specific hand.

Got a sweat by DaGoat this morning. Lost 2.5 buyins. Was interesting, gives me a feel for how I need to think as I move up, however it also reinforced the fact that I need to play to beat the players I'm playing now. For instance a river bluff shove called by A9 on a 6789X board (not that order but the 4 straight hit on river, plus a 2-flush on turn that hit 3-flush on river) after a big turn raise. Anyone who can think should fold that, but if I'm playing people who cant fold then its not so good. Another almost full stack to a guy who donked pot 3 streets with TPNK on K high somewhat drawy board with JJ. I probably fold turn there, but his opps are quite capable of barrelling 3 streets with their draw that missed. Dont think that second one was too bad. It was the second hand (of 6 at the table) that he'd played and he donked the other one too. Marginal, but ok I think.

I should also mention, I didnt mind the loss too much. I think yesterdays introspection has helped a lot emotionally. Now a session like this morning is all part of the learning process. Not going to suggest I've suddenly conquered my problems, but I feel better atm anyway.

Guess what I just did? Logged onto Everest, loaded some tables, played break even poker for 10 mins then quit!! Yes I'm excited (or at least happy) about that. There were no good tables, the tables I was on I didnt have good position on anyone I wanted it on, so I just quit. Even though I really wanted to win $70 today to get even for the month.

I had one shitty session this week when I broke my new rules and played when the tables werent good, and stubbornly hung in against a bad LAG who had position on me and donated 3 buyins mainly to him. Other than that, the only significant losing session was the sweat session above, and I learnt a fair bit from that. My current process is to wake up early, hit the gym, shower, brecky then play poker in the AM. Good tables, lots of choice, money to be made. Not only am I finding I'm playing well and against the types of players I want to play against, but by getting 1-2 sessions done early, I no longer find myself tired at the end of the day thinking I should play just to get hands in. I'm (usually) able to say no and do something else instead. Getting regular exercise and an early start to the day doesnt hurt either .

Not too dissappointed. Theres over 5 buyins lost from two sessions and yet I only finished 1.5 buyins down for the week. I think my plays been good, I'm generally good at folding. My stats are slightly tight but its working for me so I dont care much. I got 2k hands in, which is about what I'd like. 500 hands for 4 days each. Today I probably wont play much (late night at work last night so woke late today) and its a long weekend here this weekend so I'm gone for the next 3 days.

Emotional issues not gone yet (definately felt tilted after the 3 buyin down session) but better than they were and I'll keep working on them. Positive week overall, just not perfect yet .

I never update so if you're going to slow down I need to start up

a & b) are huge.

a) I'm not sure exactly how I reconciled this. I think I just accepted that I have to play her to move up to learn more, so I should figure out how to win where I am. And really, beating up on bad players at 50NL on a euro site isn't the worst position to be in


b) I would imagine anyone who's not in school goes through that same thought process. I don't have a good answer here.

I keep telling myself poker is long, and if it took another year how big of a deal is that really? It allows me to enjoy the day-to-day a little more (i.e. not feeling bad if I'm skipping a session to go have fun, etc).