Since he cant browse the net from work I showed DaGoat the above hand and talked through my reasons. He really didnt like it. He thinks I turned AJ into a bluff playing it this way, and would have done a much better job just leading turn and river into the same range. Basically that I'm wrong about having many draws in my range, and that I was lucky MP was a fish.

Ahh well, at least it demonstrates how I'm thinking, and that I'm trying to pull moves based on both my ranges as well as my opponents. Just gotta keep working on exactly what I'm representing I guess .


I'm fairly comfortable now, but still a little nervous about the money. I still tend to think in terms of 50nl monies. If I'm up $25 thats half a buyin. A pfr followed by a cbet where I fold, that $10 seems like a fair bit to the return of my session. I dont think I'm letting it affect me though, in fact my 3-bet% is higher at 100nl than at 50nl. Probably as a result of less fish and more regs so gotta keep the cashflow coming with some aggressive play.

Stacking off without the nuts still has me nervous though. Even though I was really confident what this guy had (moreso when he took ages to call my shove) its probably the most nervous I've been in a hand of poker for a while, even though its a pretty straightfoward standard spot:

Villain is a fairly straightfoward TAG, he has some bluff squeezes in his range here, and obv can have AA or KK. I dont expect to see TT or JJ but AK is very likely.

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($176.60)
Hero (UTG) ($101.50)
MP ($182.35)
CO ($98.50)
Button ($67)
SB ($99)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, Q
Hero bets $3.50, 1 fold, CO calls $3.50, Button calls $3.50, 1 fold, BB raises $17, Hero raises $98 (All-In), 2 folds, BB calls $83.50

Flop: ($210.50) 3, 4, 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($210.50) 8 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($210.50) 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $210.50

Results:
BB had K, A (one pair, fours).
Hero had Q, Q (two pair, Queens and fours).
Outcome: Hero won $207.50


I wonder about his play, and how we should play if we were in his position. The squeeze is obviously fine, but I'm not sure about the call. I guess we need to run numbers, but against a TAG raising UTG and shoving over your squeeze, you're looking at a pretty tight range. AKs is behind a lot, and flipping or splitting with the rest I'd think. Pot odds v's equity I guess. Lets see:

Possible range:

Hand 0: 42.806% 27.76% 15.05% 51337164 27822786.00 { AKs }
Hand 1: 57.194% 42.15% 15.05% 77946096 27822786.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

Real range:
Hand 0: 41.904% 22.62% 19.28% 32535636 27736416.00 { AKs }
Hand 1: 58.096% 38.81% 19.28% 55825068 27736416.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }


He has to call 83 to win 127 (39%) which makes it a call.

Very Tight range:

Hand 0: 23.123% 22.60% 00.52% 9288900 213750.00 { AKs }
Hand 1: 76.877% 76.36% 00.52% 31378896 213750.00 { KK+ }

That becomes an easy fold

Hand 0: 32.082% 17.45% 14.63% 10759572 9016902.00 { AKs }
Hand 1: 67.918% 53.29% 14.63% 32849568 9016902.00 { KK+, AKs }

Fold.

Hand 0: 37.669% 28.81% 08.86% 29594292 9105960.00 { AKs }
Hand 1: 62.331% 53.47% 08.86% 54932028 9105960.00 { QQ+, AKs }

Close fold.

Hand 0: 34.586% 34.22% 00.37% 28123620 302808.00 { AKs }
Hand 1: 65.414% 65.05% 00.37% 53461356 302808.00 { QQ+ }

Fold.

Interesting, the big determining factor seems to be if I include AKo in the UTG range. QQ matters, but not as much.

[edit]I had my pot odds wrong, fixed that and conclusions v's ranges.