Ok, months graph:



Fairly smooth sailing other than the 3 buyins around 2k hands. Interesting how it felt like breakeven poker from about 5k to 7k but in reality that was more like a normal winrate compared to my heater rate. Variance? I ran 7 buyins above EV which obviously helps a lot. A sobering little consideration is that if I had run below EV as much as I ran above EV then I'd have finished the month up only a bit over $600.

If anything I lost more 'big favorite' hands than I won 'big dog' hands (which I'd hope to be the case since I should be getting in as a big favorite more than a big dog), I did however win way more than my share of 40-49% hands which I think is where all the EV comes from. These were generally flips PF and big combo draws on the flop, so cant say I played them bad, just ran good at them. One reason I dont like the aiEV stat, but its there and I have trouble ignoring it.

As for the rest of my results, well I seemed to both hit the nuts a lot, and get paid with them more than usual. Felt like a few times I had people improve to the best hand on the turn but I'd take a free card and improve back past them on the river. That or I'd improve to the nut flush and they'd have the 2nd nut flush or similar situations. I think I played them fine, but the big hands pretty much play themselves.

I do think I did a good job of getting value with my weaker hands though. I seem to be much better at reading ranges, at getting at least one extra street of value from where I used to. Its been amazing how many pots I used to win 10-15bbs on I'm now winning more like 25-40bbs. Doesnt take a genius to work out how quickly that adds up.

Overall I think I did a much better job folding, and that definately plays into my win rate. Bet/Fold is like the best move in poker and yet everyone seems to struggle with the second part. Once you get it down, it just seems like free money. I see people talking about how they never find people who call them down light. Well maybe I'm just on the one site on the internet with people who do, or they're a) not table selecting well enough, or b) not giving these people chances to call down light. I've numerous times got 3 streets of value out of 2nd pair or worse. A lot of it, is learning not to be afraid of what we see as scare cards for us. I plan to do a thread in the BC about that, but thats the real magic of bet/fold and range reading.


Robb asked in the May Graphs thread when I plan to move up. Roll is around $4.6k atm. I plan to move up at $6k. After the last month and a half that doesnt seem far off, but lets face it, its still 14 buyins and I wont run like god forever. I'll get there when I get there. A little nervous about it. I look at the winning 200nl players I know, and they're SO much better than I am. Some of the stuff I want to be good at, I just dont know where to start. I might think about some coaching, but I might also just start by trying to plug into my network of 'better poker playing friends' and see where I can go. I feel like at some stage I need to move past 'value betting fish' as almost my only source of profits.