Operation: 'A' game

99 hand - I'd have to run the math. I'm 'pretty sure we need him to be 4bet bluffing a TON to be jamming approaching 150bbs deep, with this particular hand. I'd have to check though.

On the flop, he's betting his entire air range no? (ie: hands like he showed up with)

Yah I agree with A7... spaz fish will shove there repping.

thanks for the thoughts!

Been doing the math for the last 99 hand example. I think this is a reasonable short cut to figuring out how often we need a fold.

If I assume that 99 will have around 33% vs his calling range to a shove, then he has on avg 67%.

The difference between our equity is 34%.

Percentage we need a fold =

[(difference between our equity)*(effective stacks)- (amount lost if we fold)] / [(difference between our equity)*(effective stacks) + (amount of his 4bet)]

In this case:

=[(.34)*($572)-($32)]/[(.34)*($572) + ($80)]
=59.1%

We need him to 4bet fold 59.1% in the above example to shove 99. That seems pretty high to me, though I suppose its possible.

not sure if that short cut to an equation is helpful. Seems easier to me than writing it all out. In that equation, 'amount lost if we fold', includes the amount we 3betted and will be folding as well as any dead money. So in this example I should probably also add the $4 blinds (so $36 instead of $32 for accuracy)

Well I've seen quite many things in my poker days. I've had horrible EV run bads that I never thought would end. But I can honestly say that I've never experienced what I"ve experienced today and yesterday. I've never seen such a series of horrible card run-outs after horrible card run-outs. Kind of speechless.

These first three hands were all against the same villain on diff tables in a matter of like 150 seconds.

Hand 1
$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($386)
CO ($502.50)
BTN ($961.80)
SB ($396)
griffey24 (BB) ($412)

Pre-Flop: ($6, 5 players) griffey24 is BB
2 folds, BTN raises to $8, SB raises to $32, griffey24 raises to $80, BTN goes all-in $961.80, SB folds, griffey24 calls $332

Flop: ($1,405.80, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($1,405.80, 2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($1,405.80, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $1,405.80
griffey24 shows

BTN shows


griffey24 wins $853 (net +$441)

BTN collects $549.80 (net -$412)
SB lost $32


Hand 2
$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
CO ($496.50)
BTN ($549.80)
SB ($396)
griffey24 (BB) ($863)

Pre-Flop: ($6, 4 players) griffey24 is BB
1 fold, BTN raises to $8, 1 fold, griffey24 raises to $35, BTN calls $27

Flop: ($72, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $60, BTN calls $60

Turn: ($192, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $140, BTN calls $140

River: ($472, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $628, BTN calls $314.80

Final Pot: $1,414.80
griffey24 shows

BTN shows


BTN wins $1,099.60 (net +$549.80)

griffey24 collects $313.20 (net -$549.80)


Hand 3
-immediately after these other two, he probably thinks I'm steaming after the AQ<A7 and its gin with aces mad overbet time.. oh wait

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
griffey24 (CO) ($495.50)
BTN ($1,160.95)
SB ($720.80)
BB ($138.30)

Pre-Flop: ($6, 4 players) griffey24 is CO
griffey24 raises to $12, BTN calls $12, 2 folds

Flop: ($30, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $40, BTN calls $40

Turn: ($110, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $175, BTN calls $175

River: ($460, 2 players)
griffey24 bets $268.50, BTN calls $268.50

Final Pot: $997
griffey24 shows

BTN shows


BTN wins $995 (net +$499.50)

griffey24 lost $495.50


Yada yada yada.. down like $4.2k today.. can't win this month at all, that's for sure.

I actively went into yesterdays session with the mindset of: at every decision ask yourself "what would a nit do?".

Somehow that went out the window in pretty much the first hand.

So that's the goal for the session later today. What would a nit do?

FOLD.

That's what. Then he'd fold again. Fold. Fold. Fold. Fold.

People who don't fold tell themselves that they are allowing themselves to be exploited. At least thats what I tell myself. Though, I'm pretty sure when I don't fold and repeatedly stack off I'm being exploited way worse by paying off, than I would have by just folding.

Especially when I'm in this mega run bad, and every hand is hitting, thats even more reason to fold. I should just assume their hand hit and fold. Not assume their hand hit, and call just to verify.

FOLD.

Wish there was a way to enforce this. I swear I should just pay someone $25 to sweat every session I play and just watch for straight forward folds and just tell me to fold.

Maybe I might actually implement this. Any takers? (For real - I might try this at least once). I don't think its as easy as it sounds. Watching 8 tables at once is tough, especially if you aren't playing in them .

Originally Posted by griffey24

What would a nit do?

FOLD.

That's what. Then he'd fold again. Fold. Fold. Fold. Fold.

Wish there was a way to enforce this. I swear I should just pay someone $25 to sweat every session I play and just watch for straight forward folds and just tell me to fold.

Maybe I might actually implement this. Any takers? (For real - I might try this at least once). I don't think its as easy as it sounds. Watching 8 tables at once is tough, especially if you aren't playing in them .

i'm a nit. Would do it for free though, might help my redline

I'm trying to keep my cool right now, but its getting progressively harder and harder.

Every session is just 'wow'. Getting EV bombed, and on top of that getting sucked out even worse before getting all-in. About $8k under EV for the month, at mostly 2/4. On a $20k downswing right now, also at mostly 2/4.

My big hands are getting killed pretty hard. I've had AA 154 times this month, and my won at SD is 52.6%. I'm not sure what is avg, but that seems remarkably low. I've had KK 147 times and a won at SD of about 52%. Anyone know what is standard here?

This is the first time in a VERY long time where I've felt mostly helpless, or that it's out of my control. Often my big losing streaks have been playing wow bad, but this is like 70-80% uncontrollable and 20-30% playing bad.

Anyways... not really sure what to do at the moment. Maybe I'll take a bit of a break, though likely I'll be back at it tomorrow!

It's a miracle... just booked a winning session!

Decided to drop down to mostly 1/2 and a bit of 2/4 (instead of 2/4 and 3/6 which I have been doing lately). Booked a solid +$1.6k.. it's about time!

It's really quite unbelievable how much softer 1/2 is than 2/4+ on betfair. It's not necessarily the regs, though the regs are soft, but there are just a ton of 50-60bb stack whales on a lot of tables. While there doesn't seem to be these whales at all at 2/4.

Feels nice to book a win after so long. Will probably stick it at 1/2 and 2/4 split for a couple more wins and then get back at it.