After saturday's play I spent yesterday just playing Fortza 2 and trying to keep my mind off poker but struggled to do so especially after looking at the pokerev graphs where my sklansky bucks were twice my showdown winnings and 4 times my overall, and my expected vs realized was about 1/2 as well which indicated that I was playing well but just getting unlucky.





Given that the graphs and my hh's in PT didn't indicate I was playing badly I spent today considering my options and what my goals are and came to a few conclusions.

1. I want to get my BR up to at least $8k by end of the year to let me get started on playing $200NL in the new year.
2. I need to start looking at 6-max soon as that seems to be the way everything heads as you get over the $100NL games
3. I am mainly losing big pots where I am getting it all-in when behind or not being able to let go when I can see I'm beat
4. I'm way too nitty at FR
5. I am way too aggressive post-flop

Looking over that list it seems I want to make ~$5.5k in the next 5 months, I need to move to 6-max in a situation where I can use my aggressive nature but limit my losses while I come to grips with learning where I am behind...and that was when it came to me, moving to 6-max LHE for the moment may be the best move for me.

If I get my head around the concept that 1BB/100 is an acceptable winrate at LHE (as opposed to being not so much at NL) and that I will most likely end a nights session up only 10-15BB (4 tabling for 4-5 hours a night for about 1500 hands) as opposed to counting in number of buy-ins then I think that is an acceptable trade-off for limiting my losses on the bad days.

I understand my variance will be a lot higher in LHE but I just think at this stage my game needs me to step back and put myself into situations where my biggest weaknesses (aggression and pushing tiny edges too far) can be tamed and adjusted to turn into strengths in the long-run.

When I run some rakeback estimates for even playing 1500 hands a day of 0.5/1 6-max limit it is showing about $479 per month in rakeback at Vegas/UB or $431 at FullTilt which means over the 5 months I would only need to make ~$3k in the cash games...so $600 per month at 60000 hands per month is a worst case scenario of $1/100 and if I can't manage that playing 0.5/1 LHE then I think my long-term viability at poker would be called into question.

This is also assuming no bonus clearing as well, which I still have full bonuses at UB, Vegas, Doyles, Mansion, Cake and more to go and I think these will become fairly easy to clear at 1/2 and still reasonable at 0.5/1 so I have high hopes that this move will be the right thing to do (hopefully with some moving up in stakes along the way, could see 5/10 being a reasonable goal by Xmas) and then can start taking another look at NLHE in the new year with a hopefuly improved understanding of where I'm at in hands to stop stacking off in bad spots

Feel free to give opinions on if I'm thinking this though correctly or just retarding my growth, everything is welcome