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Originally Posted by Vinland
Congrats on moving up to 200nl.
I wanted to respond to your comments you left in my op so I tried to put them in red (we'll see if it works).
Are you still playing 2 to 4 tables? How do you select tables? What are your VPIP/PFR stats? How many notes do you take? How big is your notes file? If you are hardly ever calling down with the worst hand, you're folding too much plus you're not giving yourself a chance to determine the outcome and take notes. I'm not giving you a license to spew, but you should be putting your opponent on a range of hands and along the way, your opponent will make bets with good made hands, marginal made hands, draws, missed draws, and air. It's your job to assign that range and then assess your equity compared to that range. Don't get caught up in thinking "I have the best hand or they have the best hand". Determine how good or bad you are for that situation and try to make the best play KNOWING the actual result of that hand may not be the outcome you're looking for. Right or wrong, reflect the hand and make sure you are on the right path. Just because you win doesn't mean it was right. Just because you lose doesn't mean it was wrong. Not to mention, you'll want to be evaluating your own image and how your perceived range fits into that so you can make good value bets and bluffs when needed.
I still play 2-4 tables of FR. Usually 3 so that I can pay attention well. I select tables by trying to find them with VPIP>23% and with an ave pot of >$1. If I notice it drop uner 20% or the ave pot decreases, I leave.
I do take notes. I try to include things like what type of hands they raise in what position and what their raises post flop mean and try to take note of the size of the raises etc. I'll take note on their tendencies to donkbet and whatever else I think will help me play against them.
My stats are about 13/11/3. I steal about 30% of the time in the late positions.
I have called down with the worst hand at times but I don't see a lot of showdowns (about 20%) and win about 55% of them. Its the large pots that go to showdown that I seem to lose and I often fold on the turn when I get reraised in a large pot but the board makes it likely that I am well behind.
I sometimes make my decisions based on "I think I am ahead" or "I think they are ahead" and forget to look at equity. However it seems like when I do make the call based on a range, its in a smallish pot against a 20/5/1 type villain who doesnt often bet the river unless they are confident so I make the call simply to get some kind of a read. I had the good pot odds, but it was pretty obvious given the players stats and tendencies that I was behind and sure enough, I am. These little ones tend to add up.
From what I remember about $10NL, it was a bit nitty and not always easy to extract money, but it was still very beatable, widely profitable with PLENTY of fish. So, my gut reaction is that you're not table selecting or you're missing out on some very key concepts. In every hand, if you're sure you have the best hand, ask yourself, "how do I get the MOST $ for THIS situation LONG term based on villain's range and tendencies to act with that range?". If a $2 river bet gets called a 100% of the time but a $7 bet gets called 40% of the time, you should bet $7. If you think you're behind or drawing or could have a dominated hand, you need to take lines that will minimize your losses, too. Folding is often the right option for this, but knowing stack sizes, pot odds, and opponent tendencies are key, too. Do you have any fold equity? How much do you need? Some of these concepts may not even apply to most $10NL games, but you need a solid foundation and the ability to use different tools in your toolbox.
I dont know how I would table select better. The tables are quite full when I start playing and I do go on waiting lists for the juicy tables with high ave pot. I just don't seem to do much on them. I would think that I'm missing out on concepts instead of table problems. I just don't know what I'm missing out on that allowed me to crush 5nl but so far get destroyed at 10nl.
I cbet a lot. Prob too much esp at 5nl. At 5nl however, if I cbet with missed overs and was called, I knew I could check the last two streets and usually see a cheap showdown because they didnt often bet the turn after I cbet the flop and then checked the turn. A typical hand in 10nl has me raising pre, I miss the flop, I cbet, get called and c/f turn b/c they are almost always playing back at me after I check the turn. Of course this doenst hapen in every hand but its hands like these that just trickle the money out of my BR. I cant double barrel every hand. I try to make my cbets vilain dependant. If the board is very dry I will play it different vs a 25/5/1 station vs a 5/2/2 nit.
If you haven't already, I would highly recommend reading Miller, Mehta, Flynn's "Professional No Limit" and Sklansky's "Theory of Poker". In fact, if you haven't read them twice, I would highly recommend that, too. Those books were instrumental to me starting out and if you really understand and are correctly applying those concepts, I think you'll be beating $10NL quite handily.
I have read Sklansky/Miller NLHE Theory and Practice as well as Harrignton on cash vol 1. I havent done Theory of Poker yet but plan to.
Also, are you using proper Bankroll Management? You should have made 30 buy-ins @ $5NL or $150 before you moved to $10NL and you should have had 30 buy-ins total in your bankroll @ $10NL or $300 when you moved up and should not drop down until you hit 20 buy-ins or $200. If you hit 20 buy-ins, that means you have LOST 10 buy-ins. I've played 6 levels of stakes from $2NL to $100NL and the largest buy-in downswing I've hit thus far around 5 playing from 1 to 6 tables. So, my point is that you need to give yourself a full chance to play the stake and LEARN the stake and if you lose the full 10 buy-ins, it's HIGHLY likely at that point that you're not getting coolered or having bad luck - you're not playing winning poker. That's yet another virtue of Bankroll Management - when used properly, it is one of the best indicators of assessing your skill. Losing players can rarely win 30 buy-ins at a stake. And winning players who don't massive multi-table (and anyone trying to move up SHOULD NOT BE PLAYING TOO MANY TABLES) rarely go on 10 buy-in downswings.
I moved to 10nl with 25 BI's. I told myself to drop down if I ever went below 20 BI's. I'm one away now....
I was up a little but have been on a continuous 8 BI slide.
I hate to generalize but it seems like my bread and butter hands at 5nl (TPTK, TPGK) that usually got me a call on the flop and turn now dont even get a flop call. If they do, I am usually behind or against draws (which is fine).
A typical problem for me: Raise pre to say 50 cents, get a call, hit TP, bet flop and they fold. I win about 65 cents.
Next hand, raise 50 cents pre, get a call, hit nothing, cbet 80 cents, get a call. Figure in my head that the board makes it likely that his range hit better than mine so I check turn and villain bets at me and I fold usually. I've now lost $1.30. See what I mean? I win more pots than I lose but I lose more than I win, leading to a slow bleeding process....thats where I am at...and I don't know how to get out of it yet.
Any how, thanks for listening and for your help. Its always appreciated.
Hey, Vinland, I'm going to answer you here because I think this is more appropriate than my quest to see "How High Can You Get?".
I think it's good you're playing a low number of tables, table selecting, and paying attention and taking notes. However, your stats seems a little on the nitty side to me. If you are doing all those things, I think you should be looking for more spots to get involved. With those stats, I suspect you are largely waiting for premium hands and trying to cash in, which isn't bad by itself, but even fish are going to catch on after a while that whenever you wake up and get involved, you probably have something good. So, my first thought is that you need to look for more opportunities to get involved. Maybe try to limp more in middle to late position with suited connectors and aces - in late position, consider RAISING with those hands from time to time to keep things mixed up. You want to try to portray an image as someone who is playing a reasonable number of hands and not just nut peddling and with 13/11 @ $10NL 2 to 4 tables, that's largely what it looks like you're doing. Don't turn into a lagtard over night, but look to open up and get involved - that's the beauty of playing a low number of tables.
20% showdown seems pretty low to me. I suspect you need to try to take pot control lines to get to SD more often or perhaps checking earlier on boards where you're way ahead or way behind like if you have QQ on a JJ2 board. If you check the flop in position against most reasonable opponents, if you are ahead, you're more apt to get more money. If you're behind, you're more apt to lose less money compared to c-betting. I get the impression that you're either pushing people out of pots or getting pushed out yourself. So, recognize when YOU want the pot to get big and find ways to do that and keep them in the pot. Recognize when you have a hand that you don't really want to get big and use position to help you control the flow that way.
Read Sklanky's book ASAP and read Miller's book AGAIN. Don't move up to any level again unless you have 30 full buy-ins. You either aren't giving yourself a full 10 buy-in shot OR you are giving yourself a full 10 buy-in shot and risking having yourself barely rolled for the last stake. You're also not giving yourself a solid EMOTIONAL shot at the level when you move up under-rolled.
As for table selection, I would advise against wait-lists. Usually when you get on the table, the dynamics of what existed when you wanted to get on have disappeared and it's just another table. Sometimes, just one maniac or fish will completely dictate the table flow and when that player busts, it's no good. Instead, start your own tables. Get used to playing heads-up and 6max with full ring players. It will be an adjustment, but it's a necessary skill to have if you want to have a table selection edge because those are your only two choices: join a good table or start your own and hope it becomes a good table. KEEP A FISH LIST and look for tables with one or more of those fish. That's the only time you can consider wait-lists and if you get there and the fish is gone, don't join the table. You always want to be on the fish's left. That should always be your first priority in seat selection, too.
For the example you gave about the cbets, it's hard to exactly say what the problem there is. I doubt they are ALWAYS folding when you have the best hand TPTK and ALWAYS calling when you miss, BUT if you always play your hands in such as way that you fire 2 barrels when you hit and just 1 when you miss, that's pretty exploitable. If you're not putting your opponents on good ranges, you are probably be betting sometimes when you should be checking and you should also be double barreling sometimes even when you miss. That's why ranges and position is so important because it give you the leverage to make the best play so that you can win maximum value with the best hand and take pots away with air. When is the last time you showed down a bluff because you were called? Just like if you are never showing down with the worst hand, then you are folding too much, so too you are not bluffing enough if you're never caught bluffing. Again, don't just go willy nilly bluffing, but look for spots with certain villains in terms of their range, board texture, AND YOUR IMAGE, to take pots away WITHOUT the best hand or even a good hand.
I just feel like there's a lot of spots you're missing. Consider making a video of yourself playing with audio behind your thought process for each decision and post it.
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