$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG peeoouu ($5.34)
UTG+1 Hero ($5)
CO phlay ($7.06)
BTN Shpongolese ($5)
SB la_brujaa ($2.52)
BB mickey12111 ($5.19)

villain is 9/2 over 45 hands
Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.20, 2 folds, la_brujaa goes all-in $2.52, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.32

at first when i looked at this hand i thought
my call was pretty bad as his range for 3bet
shoving here would be JJ+,AKs,AKo and im 42 %
to win the hand but after i thought about it
i wondered what my entire range would be for
calling here and it would be KK+,AKs which makes
my range much stronger than his

after thinking about this further i wanted to
find out what range i could profitably call
in this situation.

if villain 3bet shoves JJ+,AKs,AKo then we can
profitably call 99+,AQs+,AKo

i am hesitant to include jj in his range so a
range of QQ+, aks, ako we can profitably
call tt+,aqs+, ako

this is interesting as i didnt think we
could call with a range this relatively wide.

so i want to find out what we could
profitably shove given positions were reversed:

villains assumed utg raising range:
77+,A8s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo

~19% of this range calls our shove, ~81% folds then:

EV = (% villain fold)(current pot) + (% villain calls)(our equity)(bet+pot) - (%villain calls)(his equity)(bet)

0=(.81*.27)+(.19*x*(2.32+.27))-(.19*(1-x)*2.32)


x=23.6%

since ATC has ~25% equity against QQ+,AKs,AKo
we can profitably shove any cards were dealt if
we know he will only call with this range.


assuming my math is correct(BIG assumption)
what does this mean?



well i think that this means

1. against super nitty villains it is profitable to
shove ATC against utg, utg+1 ranges
(obv not every time they open)

2. as an utg opener we have to be willing to
call a wider range to 3bet shoves to avoid
being exploited like this