koolmoe,

i tell you markov models/chains make my brain hurt, and what do you do. YOU TALK ABOUT MARKOV STUFF!

thanks for the insights, i appreciate it.

i'm thinking a simple confidence interval/SD approach (as you discussed) with a large sample size of 10000 or more may be the best way to look at winning rate when talking about no limit holdem.

soooooo many variables...