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 Originally Posted by kettleofish
Originally Posted by Knytestorme
With hand 3, if we're putting villain on 44-TT 95% of the time then what percentage of the time are we ahead of them and what percentage are we behind to a set and does the difference make pushing in this situation +EV?
I need to get better at thinking back over the hand and recognizing standard lines, makes this hand so much easier to play....what likely hand is villain calling a pfr with and then min-raising my raise on that flop with? Simple answer is pp that has hit a set rather than AA. I think I could find a fold there to my raise and was actually considering it but decided against it for some reason, think it might have been some reverse tilt tbh.
Your second para here kinda answers your question in the first  A nit taking that flop line skews his range to basically just sets so shoving is never EV (except for when you are going to spike a K on the river).
This was the point I was hoping to get to so thank you
If we assume at this level that a cold-call of a pfr followed by a min-raise during the hand is always a pp that has hit a set then at what point do we become easily exploitable?
Do we just call the min-raise and then try to get to showdown cheaply after that and not put any more money in the pot if opp leads into us? Do we just fold to the min-raise?
I just can't see how we can't start to be exploited by other thinking players at the table if we start giving up to cold-call/min-raise line too often so how do we balance it out to not get stacked when opponent is telling us we're beat by using a standard line with getting the money in when they do the same and we're ahead?
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