OPERATION: MONIES

I'm finding my floats and cbets don't work nearly as high a % of the time at $200......

Nice work on the BR btw.....

i definitely finding nits for example will always float one street with a PP like say 44 on T62 board both IP and OOP. So if the board comes an over or pairs the board ill fire again. this seems to work when we are IP since he calling preflop range is alot tighter when he is oop.

seems nowadays everyone loves to float but when they do i think they dont know whether they shud SD or not. say a player floats a 48Tfd flop and then bets when i check to them on a blank turn, ill prob c/r them on turn. ofc if i had a good hand id prob bet turn but they dont have a hand that can face alto of heat form a c/r

just had my biggest losing day in a long long time. the euro currency tables looked very soft on primas €200nl but it wasnt to be. Lost $543

Sucks man. I guess its just over 2 buyins which doesnt sound as bad, but put in $ terms it hurts.

BUMP, well i cant have my super cool blog fall off page one now can I!!!

Well im back after roughly 5-6 weeks off and feeling energised. Ive played 3 sessions thus far, +82, -123, +400. First 2 seshs were 100nl and last one had a mix of $200nl and €100nl (converts to about $130). Im feeling very confident, anyone who is looking at moving to 200nl should check out the last 3 DC vids in the Micro NL Part Duex series from WiltonTilt. Really great episode that will answer all your fears at 200nl.

Hand 1: Opp is 41/10, limp calls alot and calls alot pre in general. Whats your line on river? I think its an easy bet right of around 38-48. If opp was to shove are we folding?

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG joaengm ($152.04)
UTG+1 andrewjohns ($125.02)
CO kopitee ($151.74)
BTN MEGASTEAM ($403.16)
SB nysos ($112.23)
BB Hero ($109.00)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is BB
1 fold, andrewjohns raises to $2, kopitee calls $2, MEGASTEAM calls $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($8.50, 4 players)
Hero checks, andrewjohns checks, kopitee bets $8, 1 fold, Hero calls $8, andrewjohns folds

Turn: ($24.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $16, kopitee calls $16

River: ($56.50, 2 players)
Hero ($83)?

Hand 2: Is this a straight up cb spot?? If we check what should our line be.
Oh opp is tagish but steals 47% overall and same from CO. his call 3bet stat is very small and he hasnt been tested much ever it seems.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Mr-T ($153.76)
UTG+1 Semi-bluff ($158.39)
CO nysos ($101.78)
BTN Hero ($126.16)
SB froskelaar ($125.90)
BB claypole ($96.00)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is BTN
2 folds, nysos raises to $4, Hero raises to $14, 2 folds, nysos calls $10

Flop: ($29.50, 2 players)
nysos checks, Hero ($112.16)?

hand 3: 25/21/29%/500. 3bets 8% and only from blinds bar one time on btn vs me. So when he doesnt 3bet me and opts to c/r this flop isnt he full of shit since he almost never hits this flop?

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG pching18 ($544.18)
CO Silkepigen ($188.60)
BTN Hero ($254.45)
SB Josephool ($267.65)
BB Challe50 ($191.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is BTN
2 folds, Hero raises to $6, Josephool calls $5, 1 fold

Flop: ($14, 2 players)
Josephool checks, Hero bets $10, Josephool raises to $26, $16 to Hero ($238.45)?

thx

I feel kinda good that you had a break too. Nice start back .

Hand 2 I probably bet/3-bet we have such a good hand here.

Others confuse me. I want to bet/call hand 1 since only the A and Q beat us, but I dont think he calls with much does he?

played some more today for +236. won a buyin at 200nl, overall for the year im BE at 200nl yay but ive only played about 4k hands . surprised its so low but i dont get many in per month anyway.

BJ: I think you shoudl rethink hand 2, just bcoz we have a NFD doesnt mean we wanna get it in on flop. what range of hands are raising us on flop.

ive posted the J8s ahnd and its a fold which i did do.

53s hand was a raise to about 58 or so and won, basically since opp 3bets 8% form that position he cant have many Kx holdings.

I just think he bluffs a lot there. I'm not normally a bet/3-bet guy, but in this case I think we have a lot of fold equity v's his c/r range. Especially since a lot of "regs" will c/r semi-bluff their weaker draws here.

J8s you c/f or you b/f?

J8s is a bet fold yeah for about 25 or so. something small trying to get value from weak spade.

Anyway played a few sessions yday, it was a good and bad day. I dropped 2.5 buyins in the first session and had tilted it all off, i had some fuck it retard moments and if i hadnt of done it id be break even. THis doesnt happen often to me anymore, it comes when im abit tiredish and am not thinking analyically about each hand etc etc. Lately ive been very good at focusing and I dont wanna lose it.

So after that session i felt like shit and played Fable II. Actually Ive completed the game and totally disappointed by it, really good game but over way to early. WHo actually wants to play on in a game where you have finished the main story?

lol so i started another session late on and stuck to just 100nl (early sesh had a mix of 200nl and 100nl,lost all at 100nl). Got myself unstuck for profit of $20! Yay! Played really well and didnt have any fuck it moments, when i play this way I can crush the game imo.

Will have a session 2nite and hope theres some good tables at 200nl.

Bah dropped $500 tonight playing v bad poker. when u know your beat but continue in the hand. basically cost me tons. BR now at $5.7k

Ok Ive been doing alot of thinking about poker and my own opinion on my poker ability. Basically as with all poker player imo we are think we are greater than what we actually are. I think im a good player but seriously what am I basing my opinions on? Im a 4bb+ winner at 100nl, eh sample size? Def less than 100k lifetime.

So anyway this thread as derailed tons since i started it and in the beginning I was doing somewhat detailed analysis and since its become shite imo. I wanted to create something with alot of poker content but it never happened. I wanted to post poker content basically just for me since I would be the one doing all the work and improving myself since making a detailed post and just reading the post are 2 different things.

So lets get this thread back on track,

Ive chosen to provide some detail on a hand Ive seen on 2+2.

Qoute:
''Here is a hand from 200NL on Onbet.
Villian is 22/19/4.7. No other reads on him.

I don't like how I played this hand. I think a smooth call or a fold pre flop would have been better than a 3-bet, wouldn't it? If I were in position I would definately just have called his raise.

But how do I continue this hand as played? B/f the flop or c/c?

Party Poker $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

nok12 (SB): $446.45
Hero (BB): $200.00
fcn44gc (CO): $309.90
LUCKY_MORRON (BTN): $192.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with
fcn44gc raises to $7, 2 folds, Hero raises to $26, fcn44gc calls $19

Flop: ($53.00) (2 players)
Hero bets $38.00, fcn44gc raises to $283.90, Hero ???''

Ok lets first see what our equity needs to be to be breakeven on a call ;

EV= (our equity)*(total pot) - cost of our call

0=X*(200+200+1) - 135

0=401X - 135
401x=-135
x=33.6%

Now we figure a range for villian, time for some pokerstove fun. Here we should create a range of hands which basically give us a breakeven EV call then decide if our villian would have these holdings.

We are 30.7% vs this range
TT+,44,AdKd,AdQd,AJs,A4s,KJs+,QJs,JTs,98s,AJo,KJo+ ,QJo,JTo

Basically Ive made a range for villian that will shove flops imo. Now lets mess around some;

Say opp will 4bet AA,KK,QQ 50% of time and folds KJo,QJo,JTo preflop;
AcAd,AhAs,KcKd,KcKs,KdKs,KhKs,QcQs,QdQs,QhQs,JJ-TT,44,AdKd,AdQd,AJs,A4s,KJs+,QJs,JTs,98s,AJo,KQo,J To
We are 34.78% to win

Ok so lets check our EV on a call here now

EV= .3478*401 - 135

EV=+$4.47

So its close based on my range so if we think opp has a tighter range its a fold. If opp is a loose player then its call and we ride the variance train

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

I don't like how I played this hand. I think a smooth call or a fold pre flop would have been better than a 3-bet, wouldn't it? If I were in position I would definately just have called his raise.

For me:
- I'll call if villain doesn't fold a lot to 3bets, c-bet a ton and gives up on the turn quite often.
- I'll 3bet If he folds a lot to 3bets.
- I'll fold if doesn't fold a lot to 3bets, does not c-bet more then 66% and continues on turn around 40-50%

As for the flop, I think villain played it well. In this situation we will always be questioning ourselves wether to call/fold ...
By the stats this seems to be the player who can calls 3bet with AA/KK, as well as push the flop with it or FD + gutshot/SD.

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

Say opp will 4bet AA,KK,QQ 50% of time and folds KJo,QJo,JTo preflop;
AcAd,AhAs,KcKd,KcKs,KdKs,KhKs,QcQs,QdQs,QhQs,JJ-TT,44,AdKd,AdQd,AJs,A4s,KJs+,QJs,JTs,98s,AJo,KQo,J To
We are 34.78% to win

Ok so lets check our EV on a call here now

EV= .3478*401 - 135

EV=+$4.47

So its close based on my range so if we think opp has a tighter range its a fold. If opp is a loose player then its call and we ride the variance train

Without history, I think you need to discount hands like KJ/AJ/QJ for a 24/19 player.
Plus instead of A4s, I think you mean Ad4d.
So, what I'm saying is that, I believe we have less equity then what you have estimated.

Sorry yes i meant to only add in A4dd. Stove fecking reset itself a few times where i had to redo ranges so i must of missed that one. Also if you want to discount KJ/AJ/QJ then our equity is STRONGER since we are vs Nuts and draws.

New equity with Ad4d is 32.8%

If we take out AJo too we have 35% equity. btw why are you taking out AJ from opp range? seems fine to me.

Basically it slightly +EV to call. If opp is tighter then its a fold.

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

Sorry yes i meant to only add in A4dd. Stove fecking reset itself a few times where i had to redo ranges so i must of missed that one. Also if you want to discount KJ/AJ/QJ then our equity is STRONGER since we are vs Nuts and draws.

Yup, you are right here, my bad!

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

If we take out AJo too we have 35% equity. btw why are you taking out AJ from opp range? seems fine to me.

Basically, I don't think that a 24/19 player (without history) would take that line ... I believe he would prefer either a very strong hand of a combo (FD + gutshot/straight).

i see wot your saying but alot of ppl would felt AJ on flop imo given the draws out there.

I think he can have AKo/AQo a lot in that hand as long as he feels he has some fold equity on the flop.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

I think he can have AKo/AQo a lot in that hand as long as he feels he has some fold equity on the flop.

i think he COULD def have them hands in his range but i think its unlikely unless we have some examples of him actually making these plays. tbh id consider it a bad play on a board like this since we arent 100% cb'ing this type of board.

NOTE NOT FINISHED YET, BACK IN AN HOUR


Ok quick summary of my poker play. I seemed to of focused alot better this week. I dropped about $800 last week, half at 200nl and half at 100nl. This week Ive gotten at least $600 back so plus RB overall im back to the same level. When im focused I find the game alot easier to play and I feel I can put opp on narrow ranges while when im unfocused I just dont concentrate at all on ranges and have some fuck it moments.

So my bankroll is okayish for 200nl at about 30BIs. Tonight Im making a 200nl video to use for tomorrows lesson im having with a coach.

Ok now onto today content, heres a hand Ive picked from 2+2 again and I think its a pretty common spot but people dont know the numbers thus making bad plays.

Reads: Villain is 16/12 over 141 hands (pretty sure they play looser than this though). I know they're a winning player at 2/4 and seem pretty aggro. I've seen him bluff shove K5s from UTG Vs a BTN squeeze. Not too sure on their post flop tendencies.55

UTG: $201.75
Hero (CO): $200.00
BTN: $527
SB: $740.60
BB: $200.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is CO with
1 fold, Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, BB calls $4

Flop: ($13.00) (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $11, BB raises to $33, Hero.......

Ok so lets figure the EV of shoving. Note X is the % of FE we need to breakeven.

EV=(EV(fold))*X + (EV(call))*(1-X)

Step1
EV(fold) - When he folds to our shove.

EV(fold)=$57
since thats whats in the pot times the 100% we win since he does fold.

EV(call)=(our equity)*(total pot) - cost of shove

X*(200+200+1) - 183

Ok now lets figure out our equity vs his range that calls a flop shove. Lets assume some basic hand ranges, opp would 3bet JJ+,AQ+ preflop and not call preflop with unsuited connectors.

9c9h,9d9h,9h9s,8c8h,8d8h,8h8s,77,55-44,AhJh,AhTh,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh
vs above we are 46% to win

if we take out 99 and 88 hands which will probably fold to a shove in fairness
77,55-44,AhJh,AhTh,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh
we are 25% to win.

So plugging that into our calc
EV(call)=0.25*(401) - 183
= -$82.75

Now we plug for the figures we found above
EV=(EV(fold))*X + (EV(call))*(1-X)

=($57)*X+(-$82.75)*(1-X)

=57x-82.75+82.75x

=139.75x-82.75

82.75=139.75X

x= 82.75/139.75

x = 59.2%

So we need 59.2% fold equity to make this play neutral EV.

So will he fold 59.2% of the time????

Basically we need to come up with a range of hands our opp will CR flop ~ stack off and hands he will CR flop and fold.

Hands he will CR flop;
77,55-44,AhJh,AhTh,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,AcJh,AdJh,AhJc,AhJd,Ah Js,AsJh,AcTh,AdTc,AdTh,AhTc,AhTd,AhTs,AsTh,KcQh,Kd Qh,KhQc,KhQd,KhQs,KsQh,KcJd,KcJh,KdJh,KhJc,KhJd,Kh Js,KsJh
This reps 3.7% of hands

Hands he will stack off with as stated before was;
77,55-44,AhJh,AhTh,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh
These rep 1.7% of hands

Thus opp will continue with (1.7/3.7) = 46% of hands, therefore he folds 54% of hands.

Since we need him to fold 59.2% of hands to make this +EV and are only going to get him to actually fold 54% then this hands is not a good one to shove.

So our play is to either call or fold flop, imo we should call depending on how aggro opp is and if he will barrel his whole flop CRing range on a non flush card.

Alot of the time its is simply prudent to fold in this spot vs an unknown. Also I havent taken into account the times Ahxh hands will call a shove on flop thinking they are flipping when they arent, which then makes opp fold % even less.

Are you sure that this villain will not flat JJ+ from BB?
I think you have to include maybe 25-50% of those hands in his range.

Btw any comments on this is appreciated since Ive not done a huge amount of these and this was abit long so may have errors.

Jimmy - I would agree that we could include a proportion of JJ hands but overall it will still make this play a fold>call>shove. A tag will still 3bet these tho if the reads the hero gave are correct.

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

Hands he will CR flop;
77,55-44,AhJh,AhTh,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,AcJh,AdJh,AhJc,AhJd,Ah Js,AsJh,AcTh,AdTc,AdTh,AhTc,AhTd,AhTs,AsTh,KcQh,Kd Qh,KhQc,KhQd,KhQs,KsQh,KcJd,KcJh,KdJh,KhJc,KhJd,Kh Js,KsJh
This reps 3.7% of hands

I don't think we can count on too many hands like KhJx (maybe not even KhQx) as I don't think villain would call a raise from BB with it.
Which means that they would represent < 3.7% hands, so:

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

Thus opp will continue with (1.7/3.7) = 46% of hands, therefore he folds 54% of hands.

this number would be higher and villain folds less then 54%, so this is a fold vs this villain.

exactly, see the point imo in doing these is to take away your opinion of his ranges and look at the math. usually theres just a few holdings we may disagree on but its easy to tweak the math thru logic ie wot u have just done mostly based on math.

Last night was fairly bad, this years biggest loss in one session at -$700 . Well Im still abit positive since I recorded it and il have my coaching session tonight and go thru the video. I ran way way below expectation in allin pots. Im still confident in my play though and will get it all back.

Had a session last night for +$169. Mostly 200nl tables, im just sticking it out and trying to break 200nl. Im pretty much breakeven for the month since Ive had some nasty sessions. Played pretty well last night imo.

Ok now for some hand analysis from a hand I actually played;

Opp is a reg ive played 3bet pots with before with nothing out of line fomr what i remember. He 3bets 8% overall and plays about 22/18 game so standardish.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG gluggis ($235.47)
CO joa ($202.10)
BTN Hero ($194.00)
SB Baboota ($290.35)
BB porbeh ($541.71)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is BTN
2 folds, Hero raises to $6, Baboota raises to $19, 1 fold, Hero calls $13

Flop: ($40, 2 players)
Baboota bets $32, Hero raises to $68

Ok so to skip the workings Ive figured (via the dude if im using it right)we need 36.72% FE for 0 EV.

Now lets plug our calc;

EV=(EV(fold))*X + (EV(call))*(1-X)

EV(fold)=$72*100%

EV(call) = our equity*total pot - cost of our bet

If opp calls with KK+,AK,KQo,KJs+ we have 11.416% equity

=.11416*176-68

=-$47.91

Now lets plug into the main equation;

EV=$72*.3672+(-42.91)*(1-.3672)

=26.44-27.153

EV= .71 so basically we have proofed that 36.72% is the FE to be 0 EV.

So now we need to figure how often he is betting this flop with his 3betting range and then how often he will fold to a raise.

This is his bet/calling range imo which if im right is 21 combos of hands
KK+,AKs,KJs+,AKo,KQo

So whats he bet/folding range;
First whats he 8% 3betting range -
99+,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo

And which hands will def bet flop, well pretty much his entire 3betting range may bet (lets ignore the small % he will check QQ)
99+,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo

So how many combs are in his betting range? 73

So he continues only 21/73 = 28.7% thus folding 71%

Lets put everything int th emain equation

EV=(72*.71*)+(-47.91)*(1-.71)

=51.12+(-13.89)

=51.12-13.89

=$37.22

So the EV of making a small raise is $37.22

Amazing and very interesting analysis Goat!
I think villain's c-bet 3bet flop % is important here, but even if he c-bets 70% of his 3bet range, the small raise is provitable for this standard c-bet (on this 3bet flop structure).

The only problem I have is that you consider having 11% equity vs his calling range, this cannot be used like this as we might not even see a river in all the times villain calls as most of the time we would be done with the hand.
What I mean is that the EV(call) should be
0*176-$68 and not .11416*176-68
So which means that villain's folding equity for us to have a BE EV is:

0 = $72.X + (-$68)*(1-X)
0 = 72.X -68 +68.X
140.X = 68
X ~ 50%

Which is still OK, as 70% villain's betting = 51
So he continues only 21/51 = 41% thus folding 59%

Ok fair point but theres alot of the time when opp call and when he does he will almost always check turn too so we do see a river. thus we do still have our 11% equity. Of course there are times when opp will shove flop but since its a dry board they can still slowplay KK and AA thus we have our 11%.

and as you worked out if we had zero equity its still good

Also unlike raised pots we are unlilely to get played back at in reraised pots when we raise dry board.

I like the thoughts on the analysis, though I think some of your ranges are flawed.

This really depends how aggro villain is, but certainly he's b/shipping AA, flush draws, maybe sometimes insiders if he has those. Some people will think you're FOS and ship AQ type hands here and stuff even.

Also you have to think what you're repping, if you've been actively 4betting at all. Cause suddenly you dont have AA/KK/AK in your range that often, so what are you repping by raising? Maybe KQ, but you'd probably flat. Maybe a FD but you might raise more.

Obviously he needs to be a thinking player to figure the above stuff. But if he is, you might get shipped a lot lighter than expected on this type of board.

While I agree with Jimmy's observation I don't agree entirely with the math.

If we are called here I have a hard time seeing us continue in the hand. If we want to be complete we should probably do calculations for the 3 different scenarios here:
1) A comes on turn after the call (we're now ahead of many Kx hands but behind AK)
2) Diamond comes on turn (we now have more equity and may decide to hang around for the non-nut flush)
3) Anything else

That said - on a superficial level it's true to say that 11% may be our hand equity but the value we realistically realize if called is closer to zero. 11% would be the number if and only if we went all in with the flop bets.

If we calculate with 0% chance of winning if called we find the following:
If he folds we win $72.
If he calls we lose $68.
If he folds 68/(68+72) = 48.6% of the time we are breakeven on fold equity alone.

Ok, let's go back to Goat's analysis now with the above in mind. I'm going to make some more gross assumptions to make the math simple.

The entire 3betting range (73 combinations) c-bet this flop 100% of the time (assumption).

Let us further assume that if he continues with his hand he calls (this may also not be true - there could be a 3bet) with the 21 hand combinations listed by Goat.

For the purpose of this analysis let us assume that if an A comes the villain will bet turn with AA, KK, AK (we fold) and check KQs and KJs, folding to a bet. This means if we get an A on the turn (3/47) we lose 15/21 of the time and win 6/21 of the time. For any other card we just lose. I'm going to ignore the flush draw option and say we fold or check down and lose any non-A turn.

EV(flop villain fold): $72 * (73-21)/73 = +$51.29
EV(flop call - A turn - villain fold): $108 * (21/73) * (3/47) * (6/21) = $108 * (3/47) * (6/73) = +$0.57
EV(flop call - A turn - hero fold): -$68 * (21/73) * (3/47) * (15/21) = -$68 * (15/73) * (3/47) = -$0.89
EV(flop call - non-A turn - hero fold): -$68 * (21/73) * (44/47) = -$18.31

EV: $51.29 + $0.57 - $0.89 - $18.31 = +$32.66

Now, let us assume that if the A comes the villain is clever enough to throw away KQs and KJs as above, but we're not - we hit our A and we foolishly end up going all-in on the turn. Of the above only the third EV changes but becomes three lines. Against the AA, KK, AK range we have 0% hand equity with As and Ac and 19.545% equity with Ad.

EV(flop call - As/Ac turn - both all-in hero loses): -$175 * (15/73) * (2/47) = $-1.53
EV(flop call - Ad turn - both all in hero loses): -175 * (15/73) * (1/47) * 0.80455 = -$0.62
EV(flop call - Ad turn - both all in hero wins): +$215 * (15/73) * (1/47) * 0.19545 = +$0.18

EV: $51.29 + $0.57 - $18.31 - $1.53 - $0.62 + 0.18 = $31.58

$1.08 less EV if we foolishly go all-in on any A that we hit.

This is all more example math than anything else - because our assumptions are not really realistic. The minute differences in EV come mainly from me calculating only the extreme example of an A coming on the turn which occurs 6% of the time.

An interesting exercise to do here would be to change the 3/47 number as a chance to hit the A on the turn based on us having decided that our opponent range is AA, KK, AK, KQs, KJs - of these 21 combinations 9 have one Ace and 3 have two Aces. This would mean there is 9/21 chance to have 3/47 chance to hit an ace, 9/21 chance to have 2/46 chance to hit an ace and 3/21 chance to have 1/45 chance to hit an ace. This gives us an ace on the turn 1 time out of 20.3 - slightly more than 2 effective outs because our opponents (known) narrow range counts as discounts. I could do the above maths with this in mind but won't.

Let's play another dream scenario here. This time our opponent does not cbet his entire 3betting range 100% of the time. This time he checks QQ, JJ, TT, 99, AQ, AJ, QJs some of the time. That's 45 combinations out of the 73 in the above computations and ... something struck me as wrong, so I added up combinations a couple of times. The mentioned combinations do come out at 45 - but I note that 73 for the 3betting range is actually 75 hand combinations. I'll ignore the error in the above and correct it in the below. And the bet/calling range should be AA, KK, AK, KQ, KJs - 30 hand combinations.

Hand combination list/table (one A, K and J accounted for - for KJs which is the only suited hand in the range 3 are possible because the known K and J are both diamonds - if they were different suits 2 would be the number):
AA: 3 combos
KK: 3 combos
QQ: 6 combos
JJ: 3 combos
TT: 6 combos
99: 6 combos
AK: 9 combos
AQ: 12 combos
AJ: 9 combos
KQ: 12 combos
KJs: 3 combos
QJs: 3 combos

It's probably not completely fair to state that the 45 combinations check every time - surely they will sometimes check and sometimes bet. Let's assume that two times out of three they check, and one time out of three they bet - I'll calculate that as if 30 hand combinations check and the 15 of these hand combinations bet along with the 30 hand combinations in AA, KK, AK, KQ, KJs.

Everywhere in the calculations where it used to state 21 it will now state 30. Where it says 15/21 it will now say 15/30 - where it says 6/21 it will say 15/30. Where it says 73 it would be fixed to 75, but since this calculation is based on some checks this calculation will use 45 in that spot as those are the hand combinations that bet - 30 hand combinations check.

And I won't do the "if A on turn" series - just the basic one where we either fold out the villain on the flop or lose the hand 100% of the time.

EV(flop villain fold): $72 * (45-30)/45 = +$24
EV(flop call - hero folds): -$68 * (30/45) = -$42.67

EV: $24 - $42.67 = -$18.67

Same calculation - this time the 45 combinations that can check or bet is the other way around - 2/3 they bet, 1/3 they check - this gives us effective 15 checking hand combinations and 60 betting hand combinations.

EV(flop villain fold): $72 * (60-30)/60 = +$36
EV(flop call - hero folds): -$68 * (30/60) = -$34
EV: $36 - $34 = +$2

I think the basic conclusion here is that if our opponent is wary of wa/wb and pot control and does not simply auto-cbet every chance he gets raising small here is not profitable for flop fold equity alone. He doesn't need a whole lot of caution to make it pretty universally unprofitable to raise small here.
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v true griff. I forgot the board had a flush draw when I was going through the maths lol.

Sure he will ship FDs and prob AA yeah. I doubt im getting any inside draws shoving since there are barely any.

Im assuming this works at lower stakes while at your stakes its way more aggro. also I hadnt 4bet at all at that table

I just feel in a 3bet pot they are less inclined to test my bluff.

Had a tough ole time the past week, dropped $1,000 i think and down to $5.2k BR. Pretty much getting like 6 outered on rivers in big 3bet pots by fish at 200nl which is a total pain when taking shots.

So basically im going to grind back down to 100nl except im going to try 6 tbling instead of usual 4 tbls. Im very confident in my 100nl game so im gonna just try a big grind.

Since im 6 tbling im gonna set a target hands amount for the next month as 20K hands. I approx get in 10K hands a month but ill add tbls and watch less DC videos. Obv theres an arguement of blah blah im not improving but in fairness I lack just getting in the hands which almost everyone else can do that I usually cant.

no maths today

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

Had a tough ole time the past week, dropped $1,000 i think and down to $5.2k BR. Pretty much getting like 6 outered on rivers in big 3bet pots by fish at 200nl which is a total pain when taking shots.

So basically im going to grind back down to 100nl except im going to try 6 tbling instead of usual 4 tbls. Im very confident in my 100nl game so im gonna just try a big grind.

Since im 6 tbling im gonna set a target hands amount for the next month as 20K hands. I approx get in 10K hands a month but ill add tbls and watch less DC videos. Obv theres an arguement of blah blah im not improving but in fairness I lack just getting in the hands which almost everyone else can do that I usually cant.

no maths today

gl with the grind man!

thx griff.


erpel - how did i miss that huge post lol. when im in work 2m ill def look through it. thx for the input.

Last night didnt go well at all. Played only 100nl and in 350 hands dropped 5 buyins. Not cool, poker has been breaking my balls having gone from 6.2k to 4.7k pretty quickly.

So abit down regards poker so ive withdrawn $650 to have some fun with since Ive not enjoyed much poker at all lately. Just treat myself since I havent withdrawn at all this year and my 200nl shot hasnt worked out (actually +$9 at 200nl this month). Most of my withdraw will pay for my ipod touch and new jeans but ill have some leftover to maybe get some ps3 games.

So BR is 4K and ill grind 100nl again for awhile, 2008 wasnt the year to break 200nl for me.

The year's not over yet!!

Well I largely took last week off to just take a step back and relax. I put alot of effort into 200nl and it did/didnt work out. for the month I +$9 at 200nl, down 7 BIs at 100nl and up about 5 BIs at 50nl. Overall it doesnt seem a totally horrible month but I was at 6.2K then down to 4.7K.

On saturday though I felt like playing some poker, decided to play 50nl and take it easy. Won 4 BIs then another 3 1/2 BIs on Sunday, I was surprised by the overall passiveness in the 50nl compared to any other stakes. It was fun, I think thats a major problem that grinding at pker has. The fun can be pretty much be non existent if taken way too seriously so I think im just gonna play 100nl and put no pressure on me to move up just yet. If I play any 200nl ill just mix in ONE table, i think i made a mistake adding too many tables instead of making a slow move up like i did at other levels previously.

Yeah, these huge downswings 6max really messes with our head. But I guess these are good for our long term mental state ...

Quick update,

Played 5tbls at 100nl last night for +$200. Luckily since i dropped after withdrawing/downswing to $4k on Friday last week or so, Ive gone and won $375 at 50nl, $200 at 100nl and $600 in last months RB lol. So im back at 5k lol.

Will play some again tonight and mix in some COD5

Played a very short session last night due to my internet connection being total wank. Lost $126, basically allin v aggro opp AK vs his KK. Ran a bluff that worked and another that didnt. Overall im happy with my play.

Connection was too weak to play poker but after awhile I could play COD5 online, such a sick game and Im happy with that purchase.

I like the way you have your page set up and your hand explanations. The one thing i don't understand is that your play doesn't go along with what you say you put him on. If you put him on a range of 22-JJ and that he was a fish, then you must assume that if no face cards come out that you are going to get called. Most online fish see you betting as stone cold aggression and will always let you hang yourself. You ranged the hand right, you made the solid semi-bluff on the flop and turn hoping he may lay down the best hand, but then on the river you just handed away chips. A shared ace will call you and chop, and any pair over the board or that made him a boat or quads he is def. calling which means in the range the only hands you can beat are about 10 percent. That means you have 10 percent positive expected value and 90 percent negative value on a bluff. Sometimes in this game you are forced to swallow your pride and give up a hand, and until you learn that the actions of overplaying AK against a calling station, you are doomed to repeat defeat. So from now on when you post i will come back to criticize you some more and hopefully you will take the positive criticism and use it to win a world series bracelet and then you can thank me and it will be enough. sorry if it bothers you, but i try my hardest to point out the flaws in people's play, because i wish everyone would do it for me
Gl on the felt.

Whats up,

Been quiet lately regards poker, real busy in work. Been mucking around the 50nl games from HU, 6m and FR, been just a bit unfocused and not wanting to lose a bunch.

Anyway Im thinking of playing HU again and I took a shot at 100nl. Won a buyin vs some shortstackers. My roll is exactly 4.8k now again.

Anyone has some real good HU links?? 2+2 HU forum looks crap.

Apologies if this is obvious:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...st-t59625.html

lol yea i obv meant apart from FTR.

**still ill reread it lol**

ty bigred for adding to my winrate!!!

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

lol yea i obv meant apart from FTR.

**still ill reread it lol**

ty bigred for adding to my winrate!!!

I'll take thanks in direct compensation. Say...30% of your 09 profit?

......

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

Let's make it 40%!

Alright!

Heres hoping Ive a breakeven year so, wouldnt want to give you the satisfaction.

More like Da JERK

More like Bigrake!!!