Operation One Million dollars!!!!

Irish that last hand, did you have a read on SB? Else I hate the flop semibluff, I cant imagine having any folding equity in this reraised pot. Results are hilarious though

Honestly I dont know wtf I was doing. I played the hand really bad and just got lucky.

Made another $1200 at 100NL today. It's so easy it really is. I think if I had just played 100NL all summer I would have made way more then I did at 200 and 400NL. I've played 28k 100NL hands now and I'm running at 4.5ptBB/100 and I know I can do better then that.

I think the plan now is to get back to 200NL asap (like 6000 hands a day asap) and then make sure I have a really solid game together before I try 400NL again.

br IS $4900

OMG OMG Split POT!!!!


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($100)
Button ($240.20)
SB ($69.50)
BB ($24.61)
UTG ($133.78)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, K. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $1, Hero raises to $5, 3 folds, UTG calls $4.

Flop: ($11.50) 6, 4, K (2 players)
UTG bets $5, Hero raises to $16, UTG calls $11.

Turn: ($43.50) 8 (2 players)
UTG bets $20, Hero calls $20.

River: ($83.50) T (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero calls $59 (All-In), UTG calls $59.

Final Pot: $201.50

what?

oh ya shit I forgot the results!

He showed down 5 5

OMFG now see this is why we should boycot the Gauntet!! Gauntlet is so xx$*&&%$£^ RIGGEDDD!!!!!!!!938482


PokerStars Game #6113242440: Tournament #30964425, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2006/08/30 - 22:19:10 (ET)
Table '30964425 3' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: tonyj444 (770 in chips)
Seat 2: Sighman23 (1335 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 3: swiggidy (1245 in chips)
Seat 4: KA234 (1350 in chips)
Seat 5: mike4066 (1170 in chips)
Seat 6: givememyleg (2460 in chips)
Seat 7: Wedge7 (1350 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 8: takesix (3200 in chips)
Seat 9: Triptanes (1730 in chips)
mike4066: posts small blind 15
givememyleg: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KA234 [Ah Ad]
Wedge7: folds
tonyj444 said, "dus it require the use of technomelogical hoo-hah?"
swiggidy said, "too late"
takesix: folds
Triptanes: folds
tonyj444 said, "or is it easy 2 set up?"
KA234 said, "I have rockets"
tonyj444: raises 90 to 120
Sighman23: folds
swiggidy: folds
swiggidy said, "FTR chat"
swiggidy said, "?"
KA234: raises 240 to 360
mike4066: folds
givememyleg: folds
tonyj444: calls 240
*** FLOP *** [8h 6d 7s]
tonyj444: checks
KA234: bets 990 and is all-in
tonyj444: calls 410 and is all-in
tonyj444 said, "lol"
*** TURN *** [8h 6d 7s] [4d]
*** RIVER *** [8h 6d 7s 4d] [2d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
tonyj444: shows [8d Td] (a flush, Ten high)
KA234: shows [Ah Ad] (a pair of Aces)
mike4066 said, "haha"
takesix said, "roflcopter"
KA234 said, "rigged"
tonyj444 collected 1585 from pot
mike4066 said, "wow"
swiggidy said, "llamalicious"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1585 | Rake 0
Board [8h 6d 7s 4d 2d]
Seat 1: tonyj444 showed [8d Td] and won (1585) with a flush, Ten high
Seat 2: Sighman23 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: swiggidy folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: KA234 (button) showed [Ah Ad] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 5: mike4066 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: givememyleg (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: Wedge7 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: takesix folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Triptanes folded before Flop (didn't bet)


PokerStars Game #6113630503: Tournament #30964425, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2006/08/30 - 22:44:57 (ET)
Table '30964425 3' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: tonyj444 (4245 in chips)
Seat 3: swiggidy (835 in chips)
Seat 4: KA234 (1560 in chips)
Seat 5: mike4066 (1830 in chips)
Seat 6: givememyleg (785 in chips)
Seat 8: takesix (2885 in chips)
mike4066: posts small blind 25
givememyleg: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to KA234 [Kh Qs]
givememyleg said, "YEAH YEAH"
takesix: folds
tonyj444: folds
swiggidy: raises 100 to 150
KA234: raises 300 to 450
mike4066: folds
givememyleg: folds
swiggidy: calls 300
*** FLOP *** [2h Kc Qd]
swiggidy: bets 385 and is all-in
KA234: calls 385
KA234 said, "omg"
*** TURN *** [2h Kc Qd] [Ac]
takesix said, "lol."
*** RIVER *** [2h Kc Qd Ac] [4s]
takesix said, "LEE"
KA234 said, "noooooo"
*** SHOW DOWN ***
swiggidy: shows [Jc Tc] (a straight, Ten to Ace)
KA234: shows [Kh Qs] (two pair, Kings and Queens)
mike4066 said, "lol"
swiggidy collected 1745 from pot
mike4066 said, "glad i mucked AJ"
KA234 said, "Lee you xxxxxxxxxxx"
givememyleg said, "WTF ALL OF THESE DONKS"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1745 | Rake 0
Board [2h Kc Qd Ac 4s]
Seat 1: tonyj444 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: swiggidy showed [Jc Tc] and won (1745) with a straight, Ten to Ace
Seat 4: KA234 (button) showed [Kh Qs] and lost with two pair, Kings and Queens
Seat 5: mike4066 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: givememyleg (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: takesix folded before Flop (didn't bet)

I NEED UPDATES THX!

I need a new pp sn k thx

Been playing 200NL again for the last while. Made like 5k since about 2 weeks ago when I cut my bankroll down to 3k. I've also been experimenting with playing fewer tables and some other stuff. Things are going pretty well again.

Br = $8000

Irisheyes is back bitches!!


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

Button ($214.01)
Hero ($351.60)
BB ($276.30)
UTG ($382.03)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, 7. Hero posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls $2, 1 fold, Hero (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($6) 6, 7, J (3 players)
Hero bets $6, BB folds, UTG raises to $15, Hero raises to $62, UTG calls $47.

Turn: ($130) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $88, UTG raises to $200, Hero raises All-in $199.6, UTG calls $87.60.

River: ($703.20) 8 (2 players)

Final Pot: $703.20

Results below:
Hero has Ah 7h (flush, ace high).
UTG has 9h 8h (flush, jack high).
Outcome: Hero wins $703.20.

How to lose a 7 buyin pot in 3 easy steps:

(Please pay special attention to my expert call on the flop)


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP ($92.48)
CO ($86.45)
Button ($26.81)
Hero ($88.67)
BB ($10.22)
UTG ($67.77)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, A. Hero posts a blind of $0.10.
UTG raises to $0.5, MP calls $0.50, CO raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero (poster) calls $2.90, BB is All-in $9.97, 1 fold, MP folds, CO calls $7.22, Hero calls $7.22.

Flop: ($21.69) 6, J, 4 (3 players)
Hero bets $20, CO raises AI $76.23, Hero calls $56.23.

Turn: ($181.12) 3 (3 players)

River: ($181.12) K (3 players)

Final Pot: $181.12

Results below:
CO has 8h 7h (flush, king high).
Hero has Jh As (one pair, jacks).
BB has Qc Ac (high card, ace).
Outcome: CO wins $181.12.

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

How to lose a 7 buyin pot in 3 easy steps:

(Please pay special attention to my expert call on the flop)


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP ($92.48)
CO ($86.45)
Button ($26.81)
Hero ($88.67)
BB ($10.22)
UTG ($67.77)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, A. Hero posts a blind of $0.10.
UTG raises to $0.5, MP calls $0.50, CO raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero (poster) calls $2.90, BB is All-in $9.97, 1 fold, MP folds, CO calls $7.22, Hero calls $7.22.

Flop: ($21.69) 6, J, 4 (3 players)
Hero bets $20, CO raises AI $76.23, Hero calls $56.23.

Turn: ($181.12) 3 (3 players)

River: ($181.12) K (3 players)

Final Pot: $181.12

Results below:
CO has 8h 7h (flush, king high).
Hero has Jh As (one pair, jacks).
BB has Qc Ac (high card, ace).
Outcome: CO wins $181.12.

WHERE DID I GO WRONG?!!!?!

YAHOO!!!!!!!!!!! I won $1k on the Steelers last night, pretty happy with that. Between that and last months rakeback which should get applied soon I get a nice bankroll boost bringing me to just over $9000 I think. I've actually made $6k in the last 2 weeks whick is such a turnaround. It's weird how variance works. I just checked PT and realised that August was my first ever losing month since I started playing. I was down a total of 3k for that month. You know if you had told me two months ago that it was possible to have a losing month, frankly I would have laughed. Just goes to show how naive I was at the start of the summer.

I've encountered a little bit of variance at 200NL over the last day or so, it's nothing to be worrid about yet I just need to concentrate a bit better. Honestly I cant wait till my bankroll gets back to the 12k mark so I can start playing 400NL again. I feel like my game has improved alot since I decided that I needed to drop down and I'm looking forward to the challenge of higher stakes again. Hopefully I can run hot for a while and get back up there.

True story. 97s - $200.

Let me get this right - Irish plays 4% FEWER hands pre-flop at 6max than at FR? That must have been some bad run of cards...

Originally Posted by biondino

Let me get this right - Irish plays 4% FEWER hands pre-flop at 6max than at FR? That must have been some bad run of cards...

Nah they're both 6max stats it just doesn't say 6max for some reason.

Yeah some of those were datamined so they didn't import as 6 max hands for some reason.

You nitty luckboxx you

***** Hand History for Game 5132332823 *****
$200 NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, September 09, 00:53:04 ET 2006
Table Monster #1293947 (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 3: TU95BEAR ( $324.28 )
Seat 4: mtanc ( $191.05 )
Seat 6: johnny2912 ( $198 )
Seat 1: trasklake__ ( $115.30 )
Seat 5: SirAmberBock ( $74.20 )
Seat 2: lolYouFoldEZ ( $193 )
mtanc posts small blind [$1].
SirAmberBock is sitting out.
johnny2912 posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to johnny2912 [ 7s 7c ]
SirAmberBock has left the table.
trasklake__ folds.
lolYouFoldEZ raises [$8].
TU95BEAR folds.
mtanc folds.
johnny2912 calls [$6].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Js, 6h, Jc ]
johnny2912 bets [$11].
lolYouFoldEZ raises [$34].
johnny2912 folds.
lolYouFoldEZ shows [ Jd, Jh ] four of a kind, jacks.
The time at which hand ended:Sep 09 2006 00:54 ET
lolYouFoldEZ wins $59.55 from the main pot with four of a kind, jacks.
trasklake__ has left the table.[/b]

johnny how do you think I should have played that? I was thinking that you would think that I was bluff raising bacause you were trying to steal the pot. I thought you would shut down if I caled.

Call, value bet river seems best vs. my obvious PP. And ~1/12 of the time I hit my 2-outer and you'll take my stack.

Things are still going well at 200NL these days. I just finished off a short $800 session. Bankroll is back around the 10.5k mark right at this moment, nearly over 12k if I include money party owes me and this monts rb.

I'll be back taking shots at 4 tabling 400NL when I hit 12k. I really want to get up there and try hard to improve as a player untill I can beat 400NL soundly.

Only have 11 days left in my summer hollidays. I post a fuller report in like a week but operation 75k will continue untill I reach that mark! (Incase you were all really worried that this thread would stop!)

This is ny 200NL graph to date:



If you've ever seen a Coco_Bill graph you will see that I have HUGE variance problems. To this day I fail to understand why. I also have HUGE winrate problems which I fail to understand.

Tried to move back to 400NL today and got pwned for about $2000. I was really hoping that my transition would go smoothly but it looks like it is not to be. Ah well, back to 200NL to regenerate.

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

Tried to move back to 400NL today and got pwned for about $2000. I was really hoping that my transition would go smoothly but it looks like it is not to be. Ah well, back to 200NL to regenerate.

Heres the current stats for party poker on # of players playing each level per pokersitescout.com:
NL Hold'em USD 1/2 10max PartyPoker 36tables 354 players
NL Hold'em USD 1/2 6max PartyPoker 118tables 652 players

NL Hold'em USD 2/4 6max PartyPoker 61tables 345players
NL Hold'em USD 2/4 10max PartyPoker 19tables 185players

I was surprised to see that there were way more players playing 6max! It seems if you want to play up there productively you probably should play 6max. There are twice as many people at 1/2 as 2/4.. im assuming its exponentially harder to play at that level.

What are your goals irish eyes?? do you want to make a certain $/hr or are you looking to be able to break-even at $2k eventually?? I dont see why 2006max cant be your home indefinitely.

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

Tried to move back to 400NL today and got pwned for about $2000. I was really hoping that my transition would go smoothly but it looks like it is not to be. Ah well, back to 200NL to regenerate.

i watched you for half an hour. (and no, my party sn is a secret)

Originally Posted by TerryToma

What are your goals irish eyes?? do you want to make a certain $/hr or are you looking to be able to break-even at $2k eventually?? I dont see why 2006max cant be your home indefinitely.

I already do play 6max and have been ever since I started this operation. There's only ever a few FR tables available and FR is boring anyway.

My goal in this game is basically to push as high as I can. Hopefully to 2kNL and beyond. I realise that there are skill limitations that will arise but I'm still going to keep trying. With enough effort I don't see whay I should stagnate anywhere.

At the moment my feelings are that the money isn't all that important. Sure I like money and even at 200NL the money is good but what realy interests me there days is the challenge. I want to keep pushing myself and moving up and getting better.

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

Tried to move back to 400NL today and got pwned for about $2000. I was really hoping that my transition would go smoothly but it looks like it is not to be. Ah well, back to 200NL to regenerate.

i watched you for half an hour. (and no, my party sn is a secret)

Ah go on! You know I'll just give you more action if you tell me. I always get like "I bet he's just trying to run a crazy bluff on me so he can post it... I call".

Funny hand from today:

***** Hand History for Game 5203943735 *****
$200 NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, September 19, 12:32:35 ET 2006
Table Monster #1290232 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 4: BillyP222 ( $43 )
Seat 6: chabiuk ( $166.15 )
Seat 1: lolYouFoldEZ ( $212.30 )
Seat 5: loile ( $60.30 )
Seat 2: Bigguy44139 ( $86.80 )
Seat 3: Kasvis ( $64 )
BillyP222 posts small blind [$1].
loile posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to lolYouFoldEZ [ Js Jc ]
chabiuk folds.
lolYouFoldEZ raises [$8].
Bigguy44139 calls [$8].
Kasvis folds.
BillyP222 calls [$7].
loile is all-In [$58.30]
lolYouFoldEZ is all-In [$204.30]
Bigguy44139 is all-In [$78.80]
BillyP222 is all-In [$35]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3s, Th, 8h ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Qh ]
** Dealing River ** [ 4c ]
lolYouFoldEZ shows [ Js, Jc ] a pair of jacks.
Bigguy44139 doesn't show [ Ah, Kd ] high card ace.
BillyP222 doesn't show [ Ts, Kh ] a pair of tens.
loile doesn't show [ Ad, Kc ] high card ace.
lolYouFoldEZ wins $125.50 from side pot #3 with a pair of jacks.
lolYouFoldEZ wins $53 from side pot #2 with a pair of jacks.
lolYouFoldEZ wins $51.90 from side pot #1 with a pair of jacks.
lolYouFoldEZ wins $168.50 from the main pot with a pair of jacks.

Things are still going ok. Kinda stagnant but thats just because of a bunch of beats I been getting recently. Nothing to worry about. One more day till I go on holidays. I have to go and sit around the stupid passport office all day tomorrow because I left my passport lying in a puddle of beer at a party a while ago. It's gonna be a shit day. I'll try and fit a post in before I go on hollidays.

BR is like 11k or something I'm not sure.

There are two things I absolutely hate in this world.

1. Irisheyes.
2. People who fail to update their blogs.

Good job, you've really earned my hatred.

Yeah Im in Croatia on holidays with 8 of my friendas having the absolute time of my life. Screw. you.

Find my parents plz.

Triptanes fact:Born in Coratia, then adopted and shipped over to USA

I guess this is it.. my summer officially ends in about 2 days and I don't think I'll get to play much poker between now and then so this may as well be my conclusion post. It's been a rough ride full of elation and disappointment, struggles and victories. My total profit for the last 3 and a half months comes to roughly $18,500. That’s including rakeback and a successful sports bet promotion. Taking into account the fact that I've been on holidays for the last 2 weeks it's reasonable to assume that I made 18.5k in 3 months.

The journey was way tougher then I ever expected. To think now how naive I was when I called this post "Operation 75k" three and a half months ago. I actually really believed that I could make that amount of money it that time frame. I was sitting around doing calculations and coming up with wild expected earn numbers like $100k. Numbers which look crazy now but which seemed within my grasp at the time. It seems my estimations were way off the mark. I think there are two reasons for this:

1) I'm just not as good a player as I thought I was. Not by a long shot. All my estimations before I actually started playing were based on the assumption that I could make 3-4ptBB/100 at the stakes I played. Over my 240,000 hands I actually averaged something like 1.2ptBB/100. I still struggle to figure out why because I’m having so much trouble identifying my leaks. Every 200NL post I see I can put a good line to pretty easily and explain it and I feel that I don't make huge mistakes when I play but still I have trouble pushing my winrate up to the numbers of my respected peers.

2) I vastly underestimated how huge and drawn out the swings of online poker can be. If you look at the centre of my graph you'll see a $9000 downswing in what was roughly 8 days play. Also if you look on a wider spectrum both sides of that peak you'll see that I can justify saying that I had a 170,000 hand breakeven stretch. I just wasn't mentally prepared for swings like this. I had periods when I ran bad, started playing bad, semi-tilted and basically got caught in catch 22 situations of losing money without even really realising. It takes a severely disciplined mind to be able to push through these stressful situations and I just wasn't really ready for it. I believe I an definitely capable of such mental control and I have used it over this summer but I feel I need to be tougher still. I also think I ran shit for 240k hands but I cant justify that statement.

Of course lost of good has come from my experience. My game, mentality and maturity has improved a huge amount in the last 3 months. I feel that I am a far better player now than I ever was before. I've learned more concepts and have a far bigger arsenal of tricks and strategies. Just plain experience has taken my game to a higher state too. You cant fail to learn something new over a quarter of a million hands. I'm far more modest about my game now. I think I really needed a few kicks in the teeth to get the idea of 'pro poker is so easy' out of my head. It's not easy, it's actually one of the most stressful and mentally tough projects I've ever undertaken.

As a word of advice, I'm worried about all the 'I'm going pro' posts I'm seeing around at the moment. I think these people are taking a leap of faith without even coming close to understanding the weight of the responsibility they are taking on. When I took on this task at the start of this summer I scoffed at the idea of a losing month. I was too good to have a losing month. But it happened and it shocked me more then I could have ever thought. Why couldn't a good player have a losing year? I think a lot of people who think they are prepared are in for a fright. If you won’t to do it then please do, for the sake of no regrets, but be careful.

In conclusion. Operation 75k will continue. I will hit that $75,000 mark eventually. I plan to continue improving as a player and working my way up the stakes until I get to the top, wherever that may be. I've made enough money to relax for this college year, play a bit of poker and concentrate on getting a good result in the final year of my Mechanical engineering degree. I still plan to go totally pro after that point, despite the trials of my experience, the tribulations are too alluring and the money is too good. It's been a blast thus far, long may it continue.



Finally I want to take a moment to thank all the people who have contributed to this thread to this point. The people who left comments, the people who supported me when I was struggling and congratulated me when I was winning, even the lurkers who read this thread without me even knowing. Thank you, it helps.

Pokertracker screenshot of all the hands I played this summer:




Graph of the whole summer:

Special shoutout to Trip for his excelent rb services and AIM conversational skilz. Also to aislephise for going through bad beat hands with me and general chats. Also to boindino and pelion and some others I cant remember at this moment.

Nice work.

@ $25k of rake paid over the summer.

nice stats irish

Sup man?

Having played with you a fair amount as well as seeing a lot of your HH's / posts it's obvious you're a very good solid player. It's hard to say why exactly you struggled as much as you did in terms of upping your winrate. Perhaps your game selection was poor, which many people fall in that category. You can boost your winrate dramatically by practicing good table selection. A lot of little things among your postflop play maybe need to be tweaked as well. Who knows, you might be making too many hero calls or paying off too much. It's really hard to say. You do have great work ethic and dedication and I really think you have a very bright future. While you fell short of your goal you accomplished a lot and gained a lot of experience and became a much better player. You have quite a bit to be proud of and a lot to look forward to. I love your blog personally and <3 frequent updates, so don't dissapoint me.

Have fun on Party without me.

Been moving up to college and other shit over the last while, no time to play poker. Actually I don't even have a computer at the moment. I'll update again when something happens PLEASE don't hit me Carrick!!!!??

Played my first session in a long while today since I'm home for the weekend and I have my computer back. Did ok, made a bit of cash. Not sure exactly how much because my stupid PT is being tempermental but about $800. Got $1.3k rb and $730 off party too so all in all it was a profitable day.

Party is sooo soft now that all the American regs are gone. Looks like this new law is actually the best thing ever! Sucks to be american!

BR is like 11k now. Hopefully I can run good for another while and have a smooth transition back up to 400NL.

YAY finally I can write something in this thing again. PLayed a couple of hands over the last couple of days since I bought my own internet connection which I had to get because my college firewall is a big bully!

Played some 400NL today for some reason. Not sure if it was a good idea cos I only have like 25 buyins for it but it worked out ok. Only lost like $400 and I felt like I played well.

I think the 400NL is alot softer now that all the regs are gone so I think I might be staying there if I can keep the variance down. I'm just sick of the grind at 200NL and the fact that Party is being a retard and limiting me to 6 tables has hurt my hourly rate at 200NL. So I'm gonna play some 400NL and try and get better at poker. See how it goes.

I wanted to post a hand but my PT is being a bitch.

Hey Irisheyes, that was a great read. Saw a link from boards and have been reading it on and off all day!

Finally got to the end, and as much as I was hoping that you'd by some miracle hit your 75k, I'm still glad that you came out of it the wiser man. I think if you take a step back and look at what you accomplished you would be quite happy.

I'm building a BR myself at the moment, and I hope to make my goal 75k like you did one day soon.

Well done, thanks for the read.
Peeko

Originally Posted by peeko

Hey Irisheyes, that was a great read. Saw a link from boards and have been reading it on and off all day!

Finally got to the end, and as much as I was hoping that you'd by some miracle hit your 75k, I'm still glad that you came out of it the wiser man. I think if you take a step back and look at what you accomplished you would be quite happy.

I'm building a BR myself at the moment, and I hope to make my goal 75k like you did one day soon.

Well done, thanks for the read.
Peeko

Thanks amillion for reading Peeko. It's good to see a familliar name from boards coming over to FTR. You should stick around, this is a great site with friendly people and good advice. Contact me on MSN if you want.

So I was up at 4am last night (as you do) and I decided I'd try and do my first EV calculation ever. I explain what I'm doing as I go along and why I'm doing it.

If you would like to discuss any part of this analysis (aka show me where I went wrong) please feel free to do so in this thread. I'd especially like criticism of the various assumptions I make later on in the calculations. Also much thanks to arkana for helping me to get some of the figures right.

The Situation

The situation it relates to is calculating the EV of floating with gutshot draws.

Say this is 100NL 6max with effective stacks of $100.

Opponent in UTG+1 raises to $4.
We call OTB with 6 7 .
Blinds fold.

Pot: $9.50
Flop: J 3 4

Opponent bets $7.
Our decision wheather or not to call $7 into a $16.50 pot with a gutshot.

How do we go about calculating the EV of this call?

To be able to tell what we should do, we need to look at what could happen on the turn if we decide to call. There is one major factor which will influence the action on the turn, that is wheather or not we hit our gutshot.

We have 4 outs to hit our GS which means that out chances of hitting are roughly 8%. Lets start creating our equation.

EV = (chance we miss our GS)(turn action 1) + (chance we hit our GS)(turn action 2)
EV = (0.92)(turn action 1) + (0.08)(turn action 2)

Now we must examine the various actions that could occur on the turn card. Our opponent has four options available to him on the turn:

1) He can lead out,
2) He can check with the intention of folding,
3) He can check with the intention of raising,
4) He can check with the intention of calling.

I'm going to make some assumptions now in order to simplify the equation a bit.

1) I'm assuming that when we get checkraised we are blown off our hand, in a pot odds sense.
2) Everytime our opponent checks the turn, we bet $16 in attempt to take the pot.
3) When we get check/called we have no chance of improving on the river.
4) If we make our straight on the turn, we can only win the money in the pot plus the initial lead bet, call or check/raise. In other words, if we get check/called on the turn, we cannot amke any more money on the river.

The turn actions when we miss our draw are as follows:

(x)(-$7) <-- y is the % of times the villan leads the turn. We fold, losing our %7 flop investment.
(y)($16.50) <-- this describes the situation when our opponent checks the turn and we win the pot with a bet. x = the percentage of times he checks the turn with the intention of folding.
(z)(-$23) <-- z is the % of times our opponent checks, we bet to try and take the pot and he then raises, forcing us to fold. We lost our $7 flop call and the $16 we bet on the turn to try and take the pot.
(r)(-$23) <-- r is the % of times our opponent check/calls us on the turn. We lose our $7 from the flop and our stab at the pot on the turn. Remember that we can't improve on the river.

turn action 1 = [(x)(-$7) + (y)($16.50) + (z)(-$23) + (r)(-$23)]


Similarly, the turn actions when we hit our draw on the turn are as follows:

(x)($32.5) <-- Here I'm assuming that we will win $32.5 (including what is already in the pot) when we hit and he leads into us with a bet of $16.
(y)($16.50) <-- same as in the turn action 1 situation.
(z)($101.5) <-- This time when he check/raises us, we have the nuts and we win his stack. Note that I'm assuming that he never draws out on us after the money goes in.
(r)($32.5) <-- Here our opponent check calls us when we are ahead. He calls a bet of $16 on the turn and we win that.

turn action 2 = [ (x)($32.5) + (y)($16.50) + (z)($101.5) + (r)($32.5) ]


Now, subbing in to the first equation:

EV = (0.92)[(x)(-$7) + (y)($16.50) + (z)(-$23) + (r)(-$23)] + (0.08)[ (x)($32.5) + (y)($16.50) + (z)($101.5) + (r)($32.5)]

But what does this mean?

At this point we can set about assigning various turn action percentages to the opponent.

Remember:
x = the percentage of times our opponent leads out on the turn.
y = the percentage of times our opponent check/folds the turn.
z = the percentage of times our opponent check/raises on the turn.
r = the percentage of times our opponent check/calls on the turn.
Also: x + y + z + r= 1


Here are some examples:

with x=25%; y=40%; z=5%; r=40% (A passive calling station)
The expected value of the move is -$4.98

with x=25%; y=60%; z=5%; r=10% (A passive weak player)
The expected value of the move is $4.4

with x=25%; y=50%; z=5%; r=20% (A passive, slightly less weak player)
The expected value of the move is $0.77

with x=35%; y=25%; z=15%; r=25% (A tricky, aggressive TAG)
The expected value of the move is -$6.84

Conclusion

The biggest thing I've noticed from playing around with this equation in a spreadsheet is that the opponent tendancy that effects the EV of the move the most is y, the percentage of times he check/folds on the turn. If you can find an opponent who likes to do this, then using this move on him is very profitable.

I think it's also important to notice how unprofitable this move is agains a tricky opponent who has a large range of lines he can use on the turn. If he varies his actions, regardless of his hand, it becomes very difficult for us to play against him.

Things have been pretty well for the last few days. I feel like I've been running pretty reasonably and playing really good. When I was away from poker for a while for a few weeks a while ago I spent alot of time thinking about my game and why I wasn't doing as well as I felt I should be.

Now I feel like I'm playing with more focus. I'm concentrating better and thinking more about what I'm doing as I play. I don't feel like I'm playing on auto-pilot as much. Of course, I'm probably just spouting on about what will turn out to be nothing more then a patch of positive variance. Either way, I feel positive and confident about my game at the moment.

I've been trying out some other sites lately. When party went belly up I played on for a while to see how things panned out. After a bit of time with them, I'd have to say the game has gotten softer since the American ban. All the regs are gone and there's still plenty of fish around and enough tables. Then though they restricted the number of tables I could play to 6 and I decided it was time to look for fresh pastures.

I've been playing a bit on the Boss Media network. It's a really fishy site with shit software and loads of down points like only having 5max and having no PT support. The jury is still out on wheather or not the fishyness makes up for the bad software. I'm still playing at party too and still enjoying it. If they'd just lift the table restriction I'd probably go back in a flash.

Anyway, things are going pretty good. College is keeping me pretty bust but I'm still up around $3000 over the last 3 days. I'm going to do alot of bankroll building before I move back to 400NL though. It seems I downswing everytime I try to move up. I'll try and get to $14,000 before I move up. Depending on how long it takes me.

Br = $10,911

Here's a few hands against a decent LAG who had position on me at a table tonight. I pwned him pretty good at his own game. We were pretty deep at the start too. Hands are in order. All hands are against the same guy.

--------------------------------------------------------------

This was our first significan hand together. I was just starting to cotton on to the fact that he was LAGGY when this hand happened.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG ($662.81)
MP ($358.55)
Button ($282.40)
Hero ($335.10)
BB ($535.90)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K. Hero posts a blind of $1.
3 folds, Hero (poster) raises to $9, BB calls $8.

Flop: ($20) 3, Q, A (2 players)
Hero bets $14, BB raises to $33, Hero calls $19.

Turn: ($86) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $50, Hero calls $50.

River: ($186) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks.

Final Pot: $186

Results in white below:
BB has Th 7h (high card, ace).
Hero has Ah Ks (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Hero wins $186.

--------------------------------------------------------------

He'D run this exact flop line on me about 2 orbits ago in a previous blind battle we had. I folded that first time. This time, me read that he was way too aggro was stronger and I decided to take a stand.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG ($224.41)
MP ($521.46)
CO ($57.03)
Button ($244.25)
Hero ($402.63)
BB ($334.02)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, T. Hero posts a blind of $1.
4 folds, Hero (poster) raises to $7, BB calls $6.

Flop: ($16) 5, A, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $12 , BB raises to $30, Hero raises to $73 , BB folds.

Final Pot: $128


--------------------------------------------------------------

This was the third or fourth time he'd re-popped me from the blinds.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

BB ($200)
UTG ($549.46)
MP ($254.95)
Hero ($432.63)
SB ($312.40)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, 8. SB posts a blind of $1.
2 folds, Hero raises to $8, SB reraises to $23, 1 fold, Hero raises to $62, SB folds.


--------------------------------------------------------

I wanted to call this but resisted the temptation because he was too short. I'm most proud of this one in a way.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

BB ($439.41)
UTG ($271)
MP ($156)
Hero ($525.63)
SB ($193.55)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, 7. SB posts a blind of $1.
2 folds, Hero raises to $8, SB reraises to $23, 1 fold, Hero folds.

So you think Party is still worth it for non-US ppl?

Yeah i'd like to know the same Q.

Currently play bodog, but only 3 tables at once sucks so if party is still very fishy then ill be looking to move back from bodog. I play 50NL btw

Originally Posted by Genitruc

So you think Party is still worth it for non-US ppl?

It's at least as fishy, if not more so then it used to be. The main difference you'll notice is that all the regular TAGs and 2+2ers are gone, most of them at least.

There's still plenty of tables too. I'm not sure about higher then 400NL but you should be fine.

The only major gripe I have is the 6table restriction. I got a call from my Party VIP representative the other day though and he says he has a list as long as his arm of the names of people complaining about this and they are working to get it abolished.

Did you leave party when they banned americans?

Yeah, i played for about a week after USA players left and the games seemed a lot tigheter, easy to pick up small pots but i'd rather play the 200BB pots myself :P . I might check it out as i'm moving money off bodog and heading to stars, thinking about party/stars 50:50. Thanks bud, gl anyway. Spent half hour earlier reading this thread, you done reaaal goot

I left but based on what you're saying it sounds better than Full Tilt, even without rakeback.

thx for the cue Irish

I've played FT too for a couple of thousand hands, it's way fishier then FT. FT is a nitfest in comparison.

And you can get rakeback pretty easy. pm Triptanes.

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

Originally Posted by Genitruc

So you think Party is still worth it for non-US ppl?

It's at least as fishy, if not more so then it used to be. The main difference you'll notice is that all the regular TAGs and 2+2ers are gone, most of them at least.

There's still plenty of tables too. I'm not sure about higher then 400NL but you should be fine.

The only major gripe I have is the 6table restriction. I got a call from my Party VIP representative the other day though and he says he has a list as long as his arm of the names of people complaining about this and they are working to get it abolished.

Did you leave party when they banned americans?

What's a Party VIP representative and how do I get one?

Wtf, PO doesn't work on party now??

Originally Posted by sandstorm

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

Originally Posted by Genitruc

So you think Party is still worth it for non-US ppl?

It's at least as fishy, if not more so then it used to be. The main difference you'll notice is that all the regular TAGs and 2+2ers are gone, most of them at least.

There's still plenty of tables too. I'm not sure about higher then 400NL but you should be fine.

The only major gripe I have is the 6table restriction. I got a call from my Party VIP representative the other day though and he says he has a list as long as his arm of the names of people complaining about this and they are working to get it abolished.

Did you leave party when they banned americans?

What's a Party VIP representative and how do I get one?

I'm not sure, this guy just rang me on my mobile and told me that thats who he was. I guess it's just something I get because I'm a high volume player.

Originally Posted by ChrisTheFish

Wtf, PO doesn't work on party now??

Yeah they say they'll have a patch out within the next few days. Keep checking the PA website and 2+2 Software forum.

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

Originally Posted by ChrisTheFish

Wtf, PO doesn't work on party now??

Yeah they say they'll have a patch out within the next few days. Keep checking the PA website and 2+2 Software forum.

ok, thanks.

PartyPoker is (at least NL100) softer now after the bill than before.

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

So I was up at 4am last night (as you do) and I decided I'd try and do my first EV calculation ever. I explain what I'm doing as I go along and why I'm doing it.

If you would like to discuss any part of this analysis (aka show me where I went wrong) please feel free to do so in this thread. I'd especially like criticism of the various assumptions I make later on in the calculations. Also much thanks to arkana for helping me to get some of the figures right.

The Situation

The situation it relates to is calculating the EV of floating with gutshot draws.

Say this is 100NL 6max with effective stacks of $100.

Opponent in UTG+1 raises to $4.
We call OTB with 6 7 .
Blinds fold.

Pot: $9.50
Flop: J 3 4

Opponent bets $7.
Our decision wheather or not to call $7 into a $16.50 pot with a gutshot.

How do we go about calculating the EV of this call?

To be able to tell what we should do, we need to look at what could happen on the turn if we decide to call. There is one major factor which will influence the action on the turn, that is wheather or not we hit our gutshot.

We have 4 outs to hit our GS which means that out chances of hitting are roughly 8%. Lets start creating our equation.

EV = (chance we miss our GS)(turn action 1) + (chance we hit our GS)(turn action 2)
EV = (0.92)(turn action 1) + (0.08)(turn action 2)

Now we must examine the various actions that could occur on the turn card. Our opponent has four options available to him on the turn:

1) He can lead out,
2) He can check with the intention of folding,
3) He can check with the intention of raising,
4) He can check with the intention of calling.

I'm going to make some assumptions now in order to simplify the equation a bit.

1) I'm assuming that when we get checkraised we are blown off our hand, in a pot odds sense.
2) Everytime our opponent checks the turn, we bet $16 in attempt to take the pot.
3) When we get check/called we have no chance of improving on the river.
4) If we make our straight on the turn, we can only win the money in the pot plus the initial lead bet, call or check/raise. In other words, if we get check/called on the turn, we cannot amke any more money on the river.

The turn actions when we miss our draw are as follows:

(x)(-$7) <-- y is the % of times the villan leads the turn. We fold, losing our %7 flop investment.
(y)($16.50) <-- this describes the situation when our opponent checks the turn and we win the pot with a bet. x = the percentage of times he checks the turn with the intention of folding.
(z)(-$23) <-- z is the % of times our opponent checks, we bet to try and take the pot and he then raises, forcing us to fold. We lost our $7 flop call and the $16 we bet on the turn to try and take the pot.
(r)(-$23) <-- r is the % of times our opponent check/calls us on the turn. We lose our $7 from the flop and our stab at the pot on the turn. Remember that we can't improve on the river.

turn action 1 = [(x)(-$7) + (y)($16.50) + (z)(-$23) + (r)(-$23)]


Similarly, the turn actions when we hit our draw on the turn are as follows:

(x)($32.5) <-- Here I'm assuming that we will win $32.5 (including what is already in the pot) when we hit and he leads into us with a bet of $16.
(y)($16.50) <-- same as in the turn action 1 situation.
(z)($101.5) <-- This time when he check/raises us, we have the nuts and we win his stack. Note that I'm assuming that he never draws out on us after the money goes in.
(r)($32.5) <-- Here our opponent check calls us when we are ahead. He calls a bet of $16 on the turn and we win that.

turn action 2 = [ (x)($32.5) + (y)($16.50) + (z)($101.5) + (r)($32.5) ]


Now, subbing in to the first equation:

EV = (0.92)[(x)(-$7) + (y)($16.50) + (z)(-$23) + (r)(-$23)] + (0.08)[ (x)($32.5) + (y)($16.50) + (z)($101.5) + (r)($32.5)]

But what does this mean?

At this point we can set about assigning various turn action percentages to the opponent.

Remember:
x = the percentage of times our opponent leads out on the turn.
y = the percentage of times our opponent check/folds the turn.
z = the percentage of times our opponent check/raises on the turn.
r = the percentage of times our opponent check/calls on the turn.
Also: x + y + z + r= 1


Here are some examples:

with x=25%; y=40%; z=5%; r=40% (A passive calling station)
The expected value of the move is -$4.98

with x=25%; y=60%; z=5%; r=10% (A passive weak player)
The expected value of the move is $4.4

with x=25%; y=50%; z=5%; r=20% (A passive, slightly less weak player)
The expected value of the move is $0.77

with x=35%; y=25%; z=15%; r=25% (A tricky, aggressive TAG)
The expected value of the move is -$6.84

Conclusion

The biggest thing I've noticed from playing around with this equation in a spreadsheet is that the opponent tendancy that effects the EV of the move the most is y, the percentage of times he check/folds on the turn. If you can find an opponent who likes to do this, then using this move on him is very profitable.

I think it's also important to notice how unprofitable this move is agains a tricky opponent who has a large range of lines he can use on the turn. If he varies his actions, regardless of his hand, it becomes very difficult for us to play against him.

props on writing this

Is this too tight?


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

SB ($507.35)
BB ($200)
UTG ($181.50)
MP ($279.40)
CO ($399.55)
Hero ($408.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 9. SB posts a blind of $1.
1 fold, MP calls $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $10, 2 folds, MP calls $8.

Flop: ($23) 9, 3, A (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $16, MP calls $16.

Turn: ($55) Q (2 players)
MP bets $10, Hero raises to $52, MP raises to $94, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $201

Results in white below:
No showdown. MP wins $201.

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

Is this too tight?

Seeing that next to your avatar lead my thinking down the wrong track there for a bit...

But what on earth was that about? Either $200NL is a completely different game to $100NL or you had the read of the century.

Or you misclicked.

Or you're a donkey.

that s 2 tight

it looks a lot more like 333 than AAA

Why did you fold? Really? :/

Irish,

You misclick gOOt

horrible fold

Im thinking AQ.

lol I am the king of timing out!!

Originally Posted by ChrisTheFish

Im thinking AQ.

BOOM!!! Pwned Party 400NL for 3k$ in a 5 hour session last night. Moving up there full time for the forseeable future as long as I don't go into nosedive mode again. It's good to be back baby!

BR = $14,700

I running good.

Awesome, keep us posted...

Lol, good job man, variance is funnnn