Ok, time to really show my incompetence - isn't our line looking a lot like the flush draw that made a flush? Would we bet a flush bigger on the turn? I'm not denying that he might stay in with some KQ/AK type hands thinking that we can't have a flush every time so I guess I'm ok with the whole thing. Ah, I see now why this is good. It's good because he basically cannot have a flush because the Kh and Qh blocks the majority of the suited hands in his UTG opening range.Originally Posted by Muzzard
So a semi-solid range for villain (to call a flop raise and turn bet) is around AK (12 combos), KQ (9 combos), AhJh (1), JhTh (1), Th9h/9h8h (1 combo between them). We're not strongly advertising that we made a flush so I guess we're priced in to call a shove. He only has to shove 5% of the time with AK or KQ (21/20 = 1.05 combos with 3 combos flushes means we have to call 1/2 PSB and this would be less - $19 to win $90ish). Even if we discount AK/KQ because of the play earlier in the hand they don't have to be turned into bluffs (or value shoves) very often for us to have to call the river.
I guess I should really count in the 6 combos of KK and QQ also though along with the flush combos. Quick number jumping in my head suggests he'll need to turn AK/KQ into bluffs 10% or more of the time he has them but it's all getting rather speculative. I think at this point some of those hand combos need to be discounted. Would he re-raise KK/QQ or raise them on turn? If he doesn't raise them on flop or turn, would he ever raise them on river? All told he's probably most likely to shove on the occassional AK along with the nut flushes and call KK/QQ/KQ which means we probably have to call the shove.
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