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Double Barrel Spot #2
i don't even remember playing this one because i haven't been playing for a while, but villain is 65/8 over a very small sample and after this hand i had a note on him reading something to the effect of "check/minraise top,middle pair on turn". no other relevant stats or reads. i'm thinking in hindsight that versus a fish there are almost no good 2-barrel bluff cards here for a few reasons:
-flop equity is great but chops in half on every non-straight/BD flush draw completing turn card
-villain is quite possibly a station and the board is wet so FE is likely very low. though i beat all naked draws, he can easily have pair/gutter hands or two pairs.
-i have 8 outs to the what i'm happy to consider as the nuts against a fish so i usually want to get there cheap and then value-town when i hit with the draws in my range.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (3 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($25.45)
Hero (Button) ($25.15)
SB ($28.60)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 10 , K
Hero bets $0.75, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50
Flop: ($1.75) 7, 9 , J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25
Turn: ($4.25) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.75, BB raises to $5.50, Hero calls $2.75
River: ($15.25) Q (2 players)
BB bets $6.25, Hero raises to $17.60 (All-In), BB calls $11.35
Total pot: $50.45 | Rake: $1
Preflop
22-QQ, A2s+, A7o+, K6s+, K8o+, Q7s+, Q9o+, J8s+, J8o+, T9s-43s, 86s- T8s
22-QQ (63), A2s-A6s (20), A7+ (94), K6s-K7s (6), K8+ (54), Q7s-Q8s (8), Q9+ (44), J8+ (44), 43s-98s (24), T9s (3), T8s (3), 97s-86s (8)
i calculated those combos differently than i'm used to. seems like a more efficient means of doing it after some practice but they may be out at the moment.
Flop
77-QQ (27), A7 (12), A9 (12), AJ (12), K7s (3), K9 (9), KJ (9), Q7s (3), Q9 (12), QJ (12), J8 (12), J9 (9), JT (9), T9s (2), 98s (3), 78s (3), 76s (3), A8 (16), AT (12), K8 (12), KT (9), Q8s (4), QT (12), 65s (4), T8s (3), 86s (4)
this comes to 236 combos if i counted correctly. while most of them have me "beat" (if the flop were the showdown), i have 8 nuts outs, which gives me roughly 30% equity, plus my pair outs are clean versus some of his range so cbetting is fine by me.
Turn
i'll ignore the fact that he check/minraised me, and analyse the merit of barreling what is essentially king high versus his continuing range.
of that flop range i imagine he ditches all draws with four outs or less (all of which i beat anyway, fwiw) and any one pair hand weaker than jacks UNLESS he has a draw with them.
77 (3), 88 (6), 99 (3), TT (3), JJ (3), QQ (6), A7 (9), A9 (9), AJ (9), KJ (9), QJ (12), J8 (12), J9 (9), JT (9), 78s (3), A8 (12), AT (9), KT (9), QT (12), T8s (3), 86s (4)
this is 154 combinations, so it's 154/236 = 65% of his flop range continues on the turn, and 100-65=35% folds. i'm guessing my betsize was slightly smaller than standard because i was aiming to fold out the one pair hands i cut out of his flop range, because they are correct in calling. i'm risking 2.75 to win 4.25, so i need 2.75/(4.25 + 2.75) = 39% folds. just short of what i needed for the bet to be +EV in a vacuum. however once again i have some equity (as a guess, 20-25%) against his continuing range, so the double barrel isn't as bad as the in-a-vacuum EV calculation seems to indicate. though probably not optimal for the reasons i outlined at the beginning of this post.
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