operation: same as everyone else

hello, i'm rpm and initially i set some really ambitious goals for this so-called "operation". now it's just a place where i talk shit, or post hand histories for people to help me with.

Hey rpm,

Sounds like some good goals. I feel you on the EV calculations, I am still getting there myself. I would be down to do a sweat session with you, although, I play much lower stakes and probably wouldn't be teaching you anything. But, if you want feel free to send me a message.

Good luck!

okay today i'm doing preflop theory as it seems i could save myself a lot of rancid postflop spots if i played better pre. i'll be checking out muzz's 3betting and FE thread and whatever else i can find. if i learn anything i'll post it here.

HUD wont come up in HEM but i'm pretty sure this guy was something like 25/7 over 40ish hands. it was played on PS not party, dont know why it converted as such. only read is that he limped AQo in CO with one limper before him in a previous hand. flop for me is standard, its terrible for low-mid pairs and SCs so i get folds a fair bit. i also have a gutterball, an overcard, and a backdoor flush draw. turn is gin and i proceed to bet close to pot to charge draws and build the pot vs two pairs and pair+OESD hands. how do you guys react to this river card? his passive line makes me think he has flush draws a heap of the time, but he also probably has a lot of two pair hands, and i hold the blocker to the nut flush. its the stack sizes that baffled me in this one really. if i bet half pot and he shoves i am getting a ridiculously good price.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($5.39)
UTG+1 ($1.25)
MP1 ($3.44)
MP2 ($4.94)
CO ($12.86)
Button ($5.71)
Hero (SB) ($5.14)
BB ($1.03)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, A
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.02, 1 fold, CO calls $0.02, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.11, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.10, CO calls $0.10
Flop: ($0.38) J, 8, K (3 players)
Hero bets $0.22, MP1 calls $0.22, 1 fold
Turn: ($0.82) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.68, MP1 calls $0.68
River: ($2.18) 6 (2 players)
Hero?

UTG seemed taggy over a very small sample. something like 18/8. preflop call is questionable but the BB is an utter tard over a small sample so i came in. due to combinatorics i am actually a big favourite if
UTG's range is JJ+,AK - JJ(3), QQ (1), KK(6), AA (1), AK (12). my equity is even better when BB has like all broadways and all aces and rarely folds any of it. i lead the turn because there are now two flush draws, and the drooler doesn't fold anything. i dont particularly like it when the tighter guy shoves, but if he is doing this with AK its an easy call, which i guess he is.


Board: Qh Ac Jc 8h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.956% 39.43% 00.53% 21297 284.00 { AdQc }
Hand 1: 36.365% 35.47% 00.90% 19157 484.50 { AA, QQ-JJ, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 23.679% 22.26% 01.42% 12021 768.50 { TT+, A4s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A6o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

Thoughts on my reasoning/the play of the hand?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP1 ($5.66)
MP2 ($2.01)
CO ($5)
Button ($2)
Hero (SB) ($5)
BB ($3.03)
UTG ($1.97)
UTG+1 ($5.01)
Preflop: Hero is SB with A, Q
UTG bets $0.08, 5 folds, Hero calls $0.07, BB calls $0.06
Flop: ($0.24) Q, A, J (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets $0.16, Hero calls $0.16, BB calls $0.16
Turn: ($0.72) 8 (3 players)
Hero bets $0.60, BB calls $0.60, UTG raises $1.73 (All-In), Hero calls $1.13, BB calls $1.13
River: ($5.91) 10 (3 players, 1 all-in)
Hero checks, BB checks
Total pot: $5.91

preflop is marginal, I like the rest. I'm not a huge fan of cc/donk but in this case it seems like the best option because their calling range should be a lot wider than their betting range. You could just go ahead and donk the flop, unless you expect utg to cb-bluff there.

to be honest i just checked through habit. i didnt really consider the merit of leading. i realise this is bad, and i'm starting to learn to be able to make multi-street plans aimed at exploiting what i know of my opponents tendencies. after i checked and villain cbet i smoothed because i felt keeping the drooler in the pot was better than checkraising, which could potentially get the fish off a weak ace he was otherwise not folding, and also bloat a pot i can't really stack off in should UTG jam.

up 1850bb over first 2kish hands of operation at 2nl. thanks holdem heater. i'd post the graph but i dont know how and the link in the BC to the how to post graphs thread doesnt work. decided i'm going to play minimum of 20k hands at 2nl before i move up, even if my heater continues and im up 3000bb or whatever. i'm finding myself thinking a lot clearer about ranges and lines at 2nl when i am playing against terrible players who probably arent thinking the same thoughts about me. probably just a confidence thing.

finishing up another 2nl heater-ride tonight. down to playing one table where i'm 400 effective deep to the immediate left of a 73/68 spazz. just posting some of the hands that stood out from tonights session so as to keep this operation thread remotely alive, and to remind myself that running good doesnt mean i can start to loosen up or play any different to the best i can in a given situation based on my current level of understanding of poker (i noticed myself opening A8s-type hands in EP "for the image" or for "metagame" when this is quite simply a -EV play vs these guys with my current postflop skills etc etc)

my HUD stats werent aligned for this one, villain was actually 14/10 over a 60ish sample, but my HUD lead me to believe he was 8/4 over 200+. anyway i call because 2nl lets us buy in 250 deep and my misguided read was that this was exclusively KK and AA. i'm checkraising this flop 100% because i never expect him to have 99. and i expect him to bet all overpairs with or without a spade, with 1/2 of them containing a spade and never folding. so yep i ran good and dodged 11 cards twice (he had AsAx)

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($0.78)
UTG ($3)
Hero (UTG+1) ($5.19)
MP1 ($0.97)
MP2 ($2.07)
MP3 ($5)
CO ($4.66)
Button ($0.97)
SB ($0.95)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 8, 8
UTG (poster) checks, Hero bets $0.08, MP1 calls $0.08, 1 fold, MP3 raises $0.26, 5 folds, Hero calls $0.18, 1 fold
Flop: ($0.65) 9, 8, 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $0.42, Hero raises $1.40, MP3 raises $4.32 (All-In), Hero calls $3.34
Turn: ($10.13) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($10.13) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $10.13

villain here was 40/5 over 100. i was pretty lost here and wasn't really forming ranges during the play of the hand, but villain was terrible so i felt he was calling with any 8,T,9,Q for one pairs and gutters or two diamonds, as well as the obvious Jx and straights. i gin the river, he calls and shows Jc4c. i really have no idea what to think about how i played this hand because villain was terrible and took such a ridiculous line which threw me off. i guess i can't really not raise the turn on a wet board vs such a bad opponent.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($4.66)
UTG ($6.01)
UTG+1 ($2.39)
MP1 ($3.83)
Hero (MP2) ($5.53)
CO ($2)
Button ($1.05)
SB ($2.89)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, K
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.02, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.10, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.08
Flop: ($0.23) J, J, 8 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.14, Hero raises to $0.48, UTG+1 calls $0.34
Turn: ($1.19) 10 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.02, Hero raises to $0.96, UTG+1 calls $0.94
River: ($3.11) K (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.02, Hero raises to $1.10, UTG+1 calls $0.83 (All-In)
Total pot: $4.81 | Rake: $0.20

this one is against the 72/66 (his stats may have changed slightly but you know the guy) i mentioned in my first post in here tonight. his aggression frequencies are as follows:
flop: 87%
turn: 72%
river: 63%

he cbets 95% of flops, and cbets 82% of turns.

because this guy was a fish who i had position on, i paid him a decent amount of attention throughout the night. he typically minraises pre (yep, 67% of the time), he compulsively bets 5 or 10bb on PFR'd flops (seems if pot is more than 10bb he bets 10bb, if not, 5). i have seen him barrel three streets with bottom pair, and he has been caught bluffing river cards two or three times. i call the flop because i'm probably marginally ahead of his range, and if i improve he is likely to keep barreling. plus he overvalues one pair hands, so if i do bink the turn, he has a real hard time folding Jx. river call was pretty easy call based on how aggro he is i think, his barreling frequencies and general aggression make flushes or full houses a pretty miniscule part of his range. he showed up with Adtx here.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($2)
UTG ($2.21)
UTG+1 ($3.21)
MP1 ($4.13)
MP2 ($2.94)
CO ($17.20)
Hero (Button) ($5.59)
SB ($4.79)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 4, 3
4 folds, CO bets $0.04, Hero calls $0.04, SB calls $0.03, 1 fold
Flop: ($0.14) 4, J, 8 (3 players)
1 fold, CO bets $0.10, Hero calls $0.10
Turn: ($0.34) 4 (2 players)
CO bets $0.20, Hero raises to $0.66, CO calls $0.46
River: ($1.66) 8 (2 players)
CO bets $1.60, Hero calls $1.60
Total pot: $4.86 | Rake: $0.20

that's all for tonight. i'm now up 2500 bb over 2.6k hands. i havent been playing particularly well, and i'm not going to pretend i have, i have just ran good. hopefully by studying regularly and posting in here i can ignore the short-term results (good and bad) and continue to improve my poker game. also sorry for posting results if anyone cares. the hands arent really that interesting for analyis, more intended to keep me active in updating this thing, and making sure i stay on track and dont become complacent because i run good over short samples sometimes. oh yeah i also dropped like 300bb at 2plo because i rivered the nut flush on an 82384 board against a button preflop raiser and couldnt really think of many full houses in his range because he opened pre and most of the 8xxx rundowns dont reach down to 4. i have to learn to valuebet/fold rivers more in that game. but honestly, who opens A83T rainbow? goodnight

neglected thread update
been fart oo busy with school for much poker. so i dont mind neglecting the thread/being slack on my poker goals for the time being. i'm up about 5000bb over 8k hands since i started this, and i'm playing 5nl even though i said i would play 20k hands at 2nl before i moved up. being very table selective when im playing (its not hard at 5nl) and spending heaps of time in the BC when i should be studying/writing essays. i also lost to surviva in the feeshes HU tourney and realised how different and more intense a game HU is. til next time

ok this month is about volume. my last assignment is due in about a week so i should have a lot more time on my hands. i'm aiming for 500 hands per day, which = roughly 15000 hands by the end of the month. with a bit of luck i hope to be at 10nl by the end of this month (i'm about 3-400 bb away). oh yeah and at least one hour of study per day.

april:

just curious why u felt the need to start at the bottom again if u cashed out from playing 50NL. 10NL should be ez game if you were already rolled for it. You seem like a smart fella, just curious why start so low?

i wanted to grind an online roll from scratch mostly for disciplinary reasons. previously i'd just deposited money which i have from live winnings and splashed about at anywhere from 10-50nl. pretty much became a degenerate who thought he was a winning player and decided that it was time to stop being a slug and start studying and grind a bankroll. i figured if i was as good at poker as my ego seemed to think i was, it wouldn't take me too long to get back to 25-50nl.

fair enough. understandable. and GLGL!!

i've recently neglected this thread, and simultaneously the goals i have set within it. i have been a GS member for ages, and i typically just downloaded the videos to my harddrive and pretended to myself that that alone constitutes an improvement at poker. i plan to watch and take notes/post on 1 GS video per day until i have devoured all the 10nl content, and the how to master FR series, then re-evaluate. getting up every day at 7 is a little ambitious given my recent sleeping patterns so i'll compromise and make it 9. poker recently has been swingy and, at times, spewy which i think is a result of too-long sessions, too many tables at times, and not studying enough. in short, i have exams soon and need to study like a motherfucker, while keeping sane, and improving at music/poker. here's the short-term plan:
per day:
3 hours poker (50/50 ratio of play:study)
at least 6 hours uni study
at least 1 hour playing music


i realise no-one cares, but hopefully i feel some sort of obligation to do this shit, or an increase in willpower, as a result of posting it here for any internet user to see. evidently just knowing the means and desiring the ends isn't enough to get me out of bed of a morning. seeya

Let's see your wierdest PLO hand from your next session, just for kicks.

havent been playing much PLO lately, unfortunately. havent even been playing much holdem either and that's by far my better game.

thoughts on this one?
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...bu-180562.html

this time vs a fish
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...sh-180577.html

30k hand update. currently playing 25nl and deepstacked 10nl.

http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/5716/30kg.jpg

the downswing in the graph was pretty much all one monkey tilt session i could have done without. other than that i've been happy with most of my play. just finished exams for the semester so i intend to put in a lot of volume and study time while i dont have much on for uni. catch

So little volume I guess loads of study tho...wp

did some thinking today for a bit of a change. and i realised that the reason i thrash around like a drowning child trying to stay afloat in micro games and dont crush 100nl for 8bb/100 has nothing to do with volume. it's because i suck at poker. playing more tables or for more hours isn't going to fix this. from now until further notice i play 2 tables at a time and refine my poker thought process, pay more attention to who i'm playing against, and learn to crush them accordingly. also, it seems that when im at my spewiest is when i am not thinking poker hands through logically, i get myself in ridiculous spots with no equity against unknowns, and no idea about their ranges, so i decide the only way to win is to fire the potsized barrel on the river so they have to fold. then they call and show me top pair with an eight kicker. i tilt and spew a few more buyins before deciding to quit for the night and play the level below next session. i'm hoping that playing less tables and more attention will alleviate this spew. i'll report back into this thread (population: 01) at least weekly with how this new approach seems to be going.

summary: quality not quantity is what i'm after for the time being

GL w/the new plan. This may not apply to you, but you should be careful of subtle tilt creeping in from playing only two tables. You may get irritated from waiting so long between actions. Most players are multi-tabling, so playing two tables can be very slow. Tilt is insideous in some cases (developing so gradually as to be well established before becoming apparent) and it's source is hard to identify. I'm working on my mindset as well.

yeah i'm wary of that man, definitely fallen victim to it in the past. hopefully if i am constantly on the alert for boredom tilt i either wont get it, or i will detect it the moment it starts creeping in and react accordingly.

i think it's time for some longer term focus here, my work ethic in poker has been very sporadic thus far due to differing levels of "irl" commitments and poor organisation/motivation on my behalf. because of this inconsistency i think my progress is suffering. until further notice (ie uni takes from me 99% of my time again) i will:

- work on 2-tabling for 2 hours (total) per day, with the pokerstove hand chart up thanks to having so much free screen space which will help me visualise the range i put my opponents on at every street
- post a hand from every session in here, and if it's an interesting enough one, in the BC as well.
- two hours poker study per day (forum hand analysis, grinderschool videos, coaching sessions etc)

here's a hand from session one (1 hour) which had me kind of uncomfortable. i think it confused me because his range is so much wider than most people's that it threw me off.

villain is 40/6/1.3 (3bet) over 238, he folds to cbets 53%and he raises flop cbets 11% (out of 19). these are all the stats i understand well enough to consider relevant to the play of this hand, let me know if anyone wants more info, so long as you tell me why it's relevant. ok. obviously he's passive and fishy. i have the following notes on him:
- open limp/call 22 in CO (too passive, doesn't ATS or take initiative)
- limp 26s on BU, call flop lead w/gutter (same as above, calls too light with draws)
- likes to limp/call all kinds of suited shit (basically an inference i made from the above notes so i dont end up with 1000 "L/C XXs" notes on him)


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($16.27)
SB ($10.75)
BB ($55.95)
UTG ($32.25)
UTG+1 ($25.27)
Hero (MP1) ($27.90)
MP2 ($25)
CO ($6.61)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, J
2 folds, Hero bets $0.40, 2 folds, Button calls $0.40, 2 folds
Flop: ($1.11) 4, 5, 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, Button raises to $1.80, Hero calls $1
Turn: ($4.71) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $2.70, Hero calls $2.70
River: ($10.11) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks
Total pot: $10.11 | Rake: $0.49

now, some ranges:
preflop
Me:
this is close to the bottom of my opening range here, i'd say my range is something like 22+,ATs+,AJo+,KJs+,KQo+,QJs,JTs

Villain:
his range is far too wide to spell out with any degree of precision or accuracy but i'll use this one for the sake of analysis:
22+,A2s+,A6o+,K2s+,K9o+,Q4s+,Q8o+,J5s+,J8o+,T6s+,T 7o+ and suited connectors 32s-98s, and offsuit connectors 32o-98o.

This comes to 46% of holdings according to pokerstove which may be too wide, but its probably better to play it safe with range estimates than exclude a hand from his range which actually may be in it. Should i be looking up his "Call Open" stat here instead of VPIP? never really put much thought to using that one because i don't have large enough samples on many players because i'm a volume fish. anyway, to continue the story

flop
Me (bet):
i'm betting probably any pair, set, or draw here, because villain's range is so wide and i'm looking to take it down with my middlish pairs, and get value with sets, high pairs, and flush draws (because he has so many worse ones).

Villain:
this is where his ranges get tricky for me. i assume that, being so passive, he probably doesn't raise TOO many non-"made" hands like naked flush draws. although he's a bad player and could well be raising any pair "to see where he's at" (oh by the way, his preflop 3bet is really small, 1%), so i'll say his range is:
22+, 23s,34s,45s

Me (call):
not that i was able to think ranges through nearly this clearly while the hand was played, i probably call the raise with a fair chunk of my betting range, definitely 22-55,88+ and all flush draws

turn
Me:
Bet with intentions of calling a raise/shove: all sets and KK+ (because he doesn't 3bet hands like JJ-QQ pre which he probably stacks off with on the turn)

Bet/fold (probably): 88,99,JJ,QQ. betting for value against one pairs/draws/combo hands (if he has them, i didn't know), fold because he seems passive so his range if he takes an aggressive line (esp. on the turn) is probably sets, straights, and big overpairs

Check: all flush draws because i think i have very minimal fold equity, i'm OOP, and i don't know enough about blocker bets to attempt one here. also, i expect villain to size his bet badly, so i can draw profitably against his nut hands

Villain:
Probably doesn't bet flush draws or 1pair/OESDs here because he's typically passive and he wants to hit. i'll say his betting range is:
A3s,22,44,55,TT,JJ+,45s,45o against which i have 19% equity, with pot odds of 2.7(ish):1 (27%). so i check/call because i think he sighs and calls 1/2-3/4 pot lead on any heart river with the turn range i gave him.

River:
easy check for me, i have a pretty hard time repping a three, and he probably doesn't fold even if i manage to. his range is strong, mine is weak = easy check. villain checked behind and showed 45s

notes for improvement:

during the actual play of the hand my estimates as to villain's range were far less precise than this because its hard to enumerate every hand in a villains range when it's so wide (compared to if he 3bets me preflop, in which case he has 30 combinations maximum), and so i wasn't able to calculate my equity with any accuracy. he may well have some flush draw combinations in his flop raising range, i dont know. that's why i'm posting.

also my mind clouded over facing the turn bet, i knew i was getting between 2:1 and 3:1, which i knew meant between 33 and 25% equity, but i wasn't sure where it fell between there, and so i didn't calculate how much extraction was required to breakeven on the river.


i've tried to go into as much detail as possible here about my thought process during this hand so if anyone reads it, please let me know anything you'd have thought/done differently regarding ranges, lines, HEM stats to use to guide the play of the hand etc.

You have notes that this guy is a calling station and passive. When I look at stats similar to those, I tell myself to be careful if villian starts getting agressive. The flop raise is a good warning. I would c/f the Turn.

true, but taking into consideration implied odds: if his range is exclusively sets and KK+ (ie i only ever have live flush draw outs) then i have 18% equity, i am roughly 4.5:1 against hitting, and i am receiving 2.7:1 pot odds, meaning i have to extract 1.8x the turn betsize (1.8 x 2.7 = 4.86) on the river, when the pot will be $10.11. villain has roughly $10 left in his stack, and his range appears pretty strong at this point in time, so i doubted (actually not so much now, perhaps he could find a fold because my line is pretty transparent) he would fold to $5-6 on any heart river.

that said, i didn't consider what my river line/sizing was going to be when i hit <-- leak

here's one which tilted me like a motherfucker. villain is 17/15 with 10.8 3bet over my 200ish sample (22% from 9 in SB, 13% from 8 in BB). when he calls the flop i felt his range was like TT+, i wanted to bet the turn but i couldnt bet small enough to leave a credible river shove, which may have been needed. anyway i abort the mission and this guy shows me 66. gah.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP2 ($13.20)
MP3 ($69.75)
CO ($25.73)
Hero (Button) ($24.14)
SB ($30.31)
BB ($10)
UTG ($11.17)
UTG+1 ($55.77)
MP1 ($18.62)
Preflop: Hero is Button with K, 10
6 folds, Hero bets $0.30, SB raises to $0.90, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.80, SB calls $1.90
Flop: ($5.88) 2, 2, 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.60, SB calls $3.60
Turn: ($13.08) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
River: ($13.08) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Total pot: $13.08 | Rake: $0.63

Disclaimer: I don't think I know enough about poker to give advice, but it does help me think about the game and I also learn from other responses.

First of all, I don't know why this tilted you.

What was his 'fold to steal' stat? As played, I can see calling the 3-bet, but no way do I raise that. I want to see a flop before I put mo money in. When he calls your raise, you have to think about slowing down.

As far as the C-bet goes, my understanding is that this is a horribad board to cbet, since it's all low cards and any overpair is unlikely to fold. If you had a made hand, it would be great to call or raise for the above reasons.

Hopefullly, you would have folded to any further bets, but you didn't have to make that decision. You really didn't have much of a hand, imo.

I know you're thinking that you could have fired another barrel and gotten him to fold. Yea, it's very possible, but I would have preffered a less aggressive line.

Are you over-thinking these hands? At 10NL, just hang around and bet for value. Yea, you can float and take down a lot of pots, which I love to do, but just temper the aggression a little bit without a made hand.

*See disclaimer above.

i should have put a disclaimer on the post saying *i don't recommend doing this". and i do believe i played it badly. basically i thought he was 3betting a heap of shit out of the blinds which cant ("shouldn't") stand up to a 4bet, which for 99% of regs at 10nl indicates a range of KK+. i still stand by my claim that 3bet/calling 66 out of the blinds is mega spew, and c/c calling bets on ANY board postflop where you dont have a set with 66 OOP in a 4bet pot is spew at 10nl. what i didnt factor in is that i cant expect a 10nl player who hasnt shown me over a decent sample that he doesn't spew, not to spew.


FPS tilt imo. thanks for commenting

KhJh - You played this well imoand I like every street. Don't fold the turn you have likely pretty awesome implied odds here especially with these stack sizes and can expect to win a fairly huge pot quite frequently on the river and get him to call a massive over sized value bet on h rivers with his 2 pair or w/e. Don't raise the flop since he prolly isn't light here often and has at leats an overpair that he isn't folding. It's no fun getting it in this deep with jus 45% equity max and often less when we can maximise our EV vs his range by calling hammering the pot vs his stationy range of hands he ain't ever folding when we make our nizzles. As for your river line just donking huge is likely gonna be best since he'll check back shit like 88 JJ and crap 2 pair a ton being so passive. I'd Jam the rest in on any heart river for sure.

KTo - Don't flat this 3 bet, your bhand can be totally dominated fairly often depending what sorta shit he 3 bets from the sb (i.e lots of broadways as his bluff range = bad) 4 betting can defo be an option here id he's 3 betting like a monkley from the blinds and it appears he is. We block a few of the combos he doesn't fold to a 4 bet like TT AK KK so this is a decent spot to 4 bet him. There is however, no need to 4 bet this big. We can make it like 2.4x or soand expect to fold out the same amount of his range provided he isn't a tard that flats shit like 66 to 4 bets (we obv didn't know he was at the time so w/e) If we do know he likes to flat 4 bets with a ton of his 3 betting range then we just aren't 4 betting as a bluff but wider for value (AQ AJ 99 TT JJ) etc.

Okay so as played on the flop I don't hate firing one here expecting to fold out any AQ AK or other non paired nonsense he decided to flat the 4 bet with. I defo would not barrel the turn or river once called since I expect his range to be mostly stuff like 99 TT JJ QQ+ and doubt he's ever folding it. Wanting to barrel the turn and river is pretty suicidal here and I think you're maybe just being a bit results orientated. Both of these hands are played fairly well imo and should give you info to take good notes on these villains since what they show down in both these spots will help you out a ton vs them in the future in villain #2s case, we aint gonna 4 bet him as a bluff, but town him preflop with a wider value range etc.

just had a +12BI session at 10nl. here's one i'll post because it's the first time i've ever done this, and hopefully last time i ever will. villain is 12/6/0.9 (3bet). he never has QQ or AK here imo.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (Button) ($32.62)
SB ($19.59)
BB ($21.61)
UTG ($34.62)
UTG+1 ($24.06)
MP1 ($10.58)
MP2 ($34.89)
CO ($23.56)
Preflop: Hero is Button with K, K
UTG bets $0.40, 3 folds, CO calls $0.40, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, UTG raises to $6.50, 2 folds
Total pot: $3.71 | Rake: $0

villain here is 21/2 fish over small sample. only note is that he open limped A6o in the CO. a quick look at his VPIP and PFR make it pretty obvious he likes to do that kind of shit anyway. basically i check the river because im deep with the nuts vs a fish whose range is mostly very strong (Qx) or very weak (missed flush draws). granted he has some middle pairs some of the time, but i'm more interested in the Qx part of his range. anyway i check it to him because he bets his nut hands 100% (Qx) and may bet flush draws some % (which is greater than the frequncy with which he calls a bet with them) with intentions of check/overbet jamming in order to:
A - get called by Qx
B- get a bet from missed draws i wouldnt have otherwise (ie if i lead the river)
C- take a weird river line/sizing and hopefully fuck with him enough so that he doesn't realise i only ever have 3x here. make him make an impulsey kind of call with a Q. i figured the overbet jam didnt have to get called much less frequently than a more "in line" C/3x raise to be more profitable. anyway, he called and showed KQo

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (BB) ($25)
UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($10.78)
MP1 ($34.33)
MP2 ($25)
MP3 ($31.72)
CO ($11.56)
Button ($35.60)
SB ($9.88)
Preflop: Hero is BB with A, 3
4 folds, MP3 calls $0.10, CO calls $0.10, 2 folds, Hero checks
Flop: ($0.53) 3, 3, Q (3 players)
Hero bets $0.50, MP3 calls $0.50, 1 fold
Turn: ($1.53) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.40, MP3 calls $1.40
River: ($4.33) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $2.20, Hero raises to $22.98 (All-In), MP3 calls $20.78
Total pot: $50.29 | Rake: $2

same villain as above but far earlier in the sample. this is a hand i'm posting because i fucked up badly. my first mistake was:

1) i stopped thinking about ranges and tendencies

which manifested itself by making me:

2) react to a poorly sized value bet by attempting to bluff a very passive fish who lead the river. even worse i knew he likes to limp/call Ax hands, and i knew (should have) he had enough of a hand to call the cbet. he's passive and he's betting. what does that indicate? weak range? think not. anyway. here's to hopefully thinking ranges through better in the future by posting this.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (Button) ($25)
SB ($14.45)
BB ($23.94)
UTG ($23.72)
UTG+1 ($23.54)
MP1 ($7.97)
MP2 ($36.06)
CO ($25)
Preflop: Hero is Button with K, 10
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, MP1 calls $0.10, 2 folds, Hero bets $0.70, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.60, 1 fold
Flop: ($1.81) 5, 9, 5 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.10, UTG+1 calls $1.10
Turn: ($4.01) Q (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks
River: ($4.01) A (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.50, Hero raises to $2.30, UTG+1 calls $1.80
Total pot: $8.61 | Rake: $0.42

and yes my raise size gave him ridiculous pot odds, not that bigger was any better against this guy's range (the less the better, all the way down to not bluffing at all, which is optimal). i pretty much saw his shitty sizing and went "ahha he's weak! shouldn't need to raise much to get him to fold!"

lately i have been considering preflop tendencies with the idea in mind that if i can form good ABCD ranges preflop, the margin for postflop error is less because the street before it was played well. it seems that every error on a previous street becomes compounded on a later one because the later the street, the bigger the pot, and the bigger betsizes can obviously be expected to be. obvious example is cbetting 100% of your range on 100% of boards, ie your flop range does not even break down into ABCD on flops which you raised pre. it's clear why having such a weak range is going to cause lots of margin for error on turn cards. especially if opponents are aware enough to exploit it. anyway, i have decided to do some preflop ABCD exercises against the regs at my stakes for the sake of improvement. i have 2k hands on this guy, he's a not so good reg that plays exclusively 250bb deep tables and is a goldstar (at 10nl that's a decent amount of monthly volume imo). relevant stats are as follows:

villain is 26/10/2.2 (3bet)
PREFLOP
PFR by position is
EP 10%
MP 13%
CO 13%
BU 14%
SB 5%
BB 3%

fold to 3bet 7% (14)
hasn't 4bet

ATS by position
CO 31% (68)
BU 43% (53)
SB 27% (26)

POSTFLOP
cbets 63%
folds to cbet 44%
raise cbet 9%

checkraise 6%
donk 3%

aggression frequencies are
flop 24%
turn 29%
river 21%

cbets 52% of turns (29)
folds to 22% of turn cbets (37)

i also have the following notes on him:
- limp/calls suited aces any position
- C/C flop and turn w/top pair no kicker vs preflop aggressor
- B/C turn w/top pair top kicker on wet board, bloated pot (this was AJ on Jxxx, ie loses to overpairs)
- call overbet on turn w/2nd nut flush draw + 2 overs (this wasn't against me so maybe he had a read on the particular villain, but spew imo nonetheless)

ok so now i plan to run some different scenarios of playing against this guy preflop. 2 people limp to him in the CO, and he opens for 6x. i'm on the BU. the blinds are both 0/0 over an infinite sample and we'll say the limpers are like 26/14ish because those are common at the deepstack tables. what's my range?

first, what's his range? well, despite his ATS being 30% over a decent sample from this position, as best i know ATS is only when he OPENS, ie has been folded to, in this scenario he is raising after two guys who aren't superfish have limped to him. i'm more inclined to look up his PFR% by position for this one, which is 13%. which 13%? well, this guy likes to see flops, especially with "drawing" hands that have big hand potential like Axs, Kxs and suited connectors (hence his 26% VPIP) i doubt he is isoing this range - i imagine his iso range is mostly for value - strong broadway hands and mid-high pairs. at this stage i'll guess 66+,ATs+,ATo+,KJs+,KJo+QTs+,QJo+,JTs. this comes to 13.1% in stove.

now to me. my ranges (i think) should breakdown as follows:
Range A - profitable to 3bet for value vs this guy's 3bet calling range (he hasn't 4bet once over 2k hands)
Range B - profitable to smooth call vs this guy's opening range
Range C - hands which aren't strong enough to call, but have value as 3bet bluffs (preferably ones which weaken the strength of his calling range, ie have blockers to it)
Range D - the rest which i fold because it sucks to call or 3bet it.

i'm not even sure it's a good idea to have many sub-calling range hands in my 3bet range as bluffs because he rarely folds to 3bets, and hasn't historically folded to many flop OR TURN cbets, so i want my range to be stronger to exploit his check/call-iness on postflop streets. so i should perhaps 3bet wider for value, and less as a bluff, to exploit his low fold to 3bet/cbet/turncbet. anyway that's all for now. i'm starting to lapse in concentration so i'll leave it at that and come back to forming my ranges later.

i think this kind of shit is better posted in the BC. if anyone is interested in this discussion. go there.

spoon suggested i post up 5 example hands where i was value betting and determine what i think my opponents calling range is on each street i value bet in order to get a feel and understanding for value betting. we also discussed choosing how many/which streets we should value bet and how board textures and opponents tendencies influence this. i decided i'll post them here. i'm not saying "check out how optimal i played these hands man", i feel i played bad in at least a few of them. these are just hands in which i felt i would like to go into more analysis of my value betting tendencies than i am currently able to at the tables.

Hand 1
villain is 33/14 over 21. preflop iso may be light, but was aimed at 84/2 fish in BB who was C/C'ing down almost any piece, but miraculously folded on this occasion. and i'm pretty sure the CO was a real nit too. flop cbet was probably marginal/bad but i'm posting this for the turn and river decisions.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($28.26)
SB ($18.14)
BB ($10.37)
UTG ($23.78)
MP1 ($17.12)
Hero (MP2) ($28.33)
CO ($37.27)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 7, A
2 folds, Hero bets $0.50, 1 fold, Button calls $0.50, 1 fold, BB calls $0.40
Flop: ($1.69) 4, 6, 2 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.10, Button calls $1.10, 1 fold
Turn: ($3.89) A (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks
River: ($3.89) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.60, 1 fold
Total pot: $3.89 | Rake: $0.19

Preflop:
little info on this dude, though he doesn't seem an utter whale. he's definitely calling all pairs, and likely 3betting QQ+. i imagine he'd be calling most suited aces, all suited broadways, A9o+, KJo+, QTo+,JTo would be in there i imagine, and i've been finding so many villains lately at 10nl who call with any old suited shit, so i'll give him 43s-T9s, 64s-Q9s,J7s,Q8s

Range 22-QQ, A2s+,A9o+,KJo+,KTs+,QTo+,Q8s+JTo,J7s+,43s-T9s, 64s-Q9s,J7s,Q8s

Flop
i imagine he'd be calling my cbet with 22-QQ, 43s-87s, 64s-86s, he's quite possibly raising his sets, straights, and two pairs, but without knowing anything about the guy i think they can only be discounted and not compltely excluded. he may also have some floats or other weird shit in there but barring such reads i'll stick with the above range.

Turn
at the time, i felt like the ace was a scare card for a shitload of his range, and so i decided to check it with intentions of betting and having him call wider on the river (the weaker his calling range is, the higher the EV of the value bet obviously). obviously 77-JJ is now dead to two outs, but the board texture and villains range is such that it may have been better to just bet this turn because he is calling with a lot of 1 pair/gutter or other drawy type hands so i:
A- get value from them obviously
B- protect my hand and allow him to make a FTOP mistake because his implied odds aren't high enough to make it call with say:


Board: 4h 6d 2c Ac
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 79.545% 79.55% 00.00% 35 0.00 { Ad7s }
Hand 1: 20.455% 20.45% 00.00% 9 0.00 { 6h5h }

because all the river cards which give him the best hand create a pretty scary board, and so he won't be getting much value.

at the time i didnt consider near as many suited connectors in his preflop range so it seemed like he either had a set which had me crushed, or a middle pair (77-JJ) which was dead to two outs and probably folded because of da ace, but i might be able to get some value from on the river
River
i decide to try to get one street of value here, as planned, hoping that my turn check threw him off and he might look me up with hands like 77,88,99,JJ or perhaps even some of the weaker hands that missed like 65,76,86. i feel like he very rarely checks back anything stronger than one pair on the turn, so those hands can be substantially discounted or perhaps even eliminated from his river calling range, because it's rare he even has them given how the hand played. anyway i attempt to vbet the river and he folds a range of which i think was made up of mostly 77-99 and one pair/gutterball hands, or 75 or something.


Board: 4h 6d 2c Ac Ts
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 92.105% 92.11% 00.00% 35 0.00 { Ad7s }
Hand 1: 07.895% 07.89% 00.00% 3 0.00 { JJ-77, 86s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s }

he's not going to be calling me that light all of the time, and he may be weird and somehow show up with > two pair here, but it would take a decent amount of combos of hands two pair or better that he checked back on the turn for me to have less than 50% equity against this calling range i think. even if he only calls with one possible combination each of the hands i beat in the above calling range:


Board: 4h 6d 2c Ac Ts
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 72.727% 72.73% 00.00% 8 0.00 { Ad7s }
Hand 1: 27.273% 27.27% 00.00% 3 0.00 { JhJs, TT, 9h9s, 8h8s, 7h7s, 8c6c, 7c6c, 6c5c, 5c4c, 4c3c }

if he decided to check back 64s on the turn (unlikely imo):

Board: 4h 6d 2c Ac Ts
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.538% 61.54% 00.00% 8 0.00 { Ad7s }
Hand 1: 38.462% 38.46% 00.00% 5 0.00 { JhJs, TT, 9h9s, 8h8s, 7h7s, 8c6c, 7c6c, 6c5c, 64s, 5c4c, 4c3c }


in summary, once i made top pair, i felt i had better equity versus villain's calling range on the river than i did on the turn, because checking with initiative when an ace falls is often interpreted as weakness/fear/whatever. if he's the kind of player who calls a turn bet with 77-99, i imagine he'd be the kind of guy to talk himself into calling with those hands a lot of rivers anyway. it may have been better, if i thought i could get only one street of value versus his calling range, to bet the turn because the draws still have equity on the turn, and some river cards may tighten his calling range (as the T which fell may well have done). i'm not saying i played, or thought about this hand well, i'm just saying that this is how i thought about it and played it. i'll post another shortly.

Hand 2
villain is 14/8/0 over 77. no other significant reads.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP1 ($9.54)
Hero (MP2) ($36.03)
CO ($11.13)
Button ($16.69)
SB ($25.52)
BB ($36.76)
UTG ($31.07)
UTG+1 ($25.90)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, K
UTG bets $0.30, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.10, 4 folds, UTG calls $0.80
Flop: ($2.51) 6, 6, A (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($2.51) 5 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
River: ($2.51) 7 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.70, UTG calls $1.70
Total pot: $5.91 | Rake: $0.28

Preflop
i suspect he is opening and then calling my 3bet with a range of 77+,AK,AQs. obviously there are a heap of worse hands in that preflop range and i am 3betting for value.

Flop
first up. i made the assumption that villain seems straightforward enough that i am only ever going to get one street of value with that ace on the board. if i was to go for two streets, i would be targetting JJ-QQ, and i think bet flop, check turn, bet river is the best line to take because flop cbets can quite often be FOS and so can river bets IP when checked to over 3 streets. however i decide that i rarely am good when i attempt to get two streets of value from villain's calling range, and so i check here because i want to induce some value on later streets from hands which may not call a flop cbet, hands like 77-QQ. i'm starting to think it was perhaps better to cbet this flop, because he has few aces in his range (3 of AQs and 6 of AK off the top of my head), and if he calls a flop cbet here with JJ and QQ (12 combos), it is a +EV bet for me (obviously the more middle pairs he calls with the higher the EV of the flop bet is):


Board: Ah 6c 6d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.582% 54.36% 00.22% 11301 46.50 { KcKh }
Hand 1: 45.418% 45.19% 00.22% 9396 46.50 { QQ-JJ, AQs+, AKo }

i also lose some action from mid pairs the times the turn brings another overcard to theirr pocket pair, so betting flop was probably best here unless i have a read saying that he folds all non-set pocket pairs to 3bettors on overcard boards or something. betting KK on this flop also adds value on these flops to any Ax i may be 3betting, which is quite likely irrelevant versus this particular guy but worth noting anyway.

Turn
i feel like i really could/should have got a bet in here. if one reason for preferring betting the flop was that there were a few turn cards which kill my value from hands like 77-TT, then not betting when a 5 falls, and allowing another potential action-killer-card to fall on the river, seems pretty bad. again, i was in the mindset that most of his range was made up of pocket pairs which were dead to two outs, so i had strong equity in the hand, and i wanted to deceive these hands into calling a bet by checking and looking weak or some such shit. i prefer betting. if not the flop then definitely the turn for reasons aforementioned.

River
so the river card is another realtively good one and i finally decide to get my street of value. i feel villain is definitely calling me down with all of 77-QQ after i have checked the flop and turn in position, so even if he has checked all of the aces in his range over two streets:


Board: Ah 6c 6d 5s 7s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.304% 65.22% 01.09% 30 0.50 { KcKh }
Hand 1: 33.696% 32.61% 01.09% 15 0.50 { 77+, AQs+, AKo }

value betting is going to be +EV.

Hand 3
another one i feel i fucked up. i am perhaps trying too hard to deceive villains at my stakes by checking, hoping to induce some value on later streets. however most villains at 10nl are only thinking about the two cards whose underside they can see on their screen anyway. so checking often just allows potential action-killer cards to fall. just a thought. anyway villain is 13/0 over 8 here. again no significant reads due to small sample.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($20.66)
Button ($22.18)
SB ($20.12)
BB ($25)
UTG ($17.58)
UTG+1 ($11.55)
Hero (MP1) ($26.01)
MP2 ($46.08)
MP3 ($48.74)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, A
UTG bets $0.30, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1, 4 folds, SB calls $0.95, 2 folds
Flop: ($2.58) 4, J, 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($2.58) 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.10, SB calls $2.10
River: ($6.78) 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.80, SB calls $4.80
Total pot: $16.38 | Rake: $0.80

Preflop
because i have no reads whatsoever and a small sample of stats, i'll assume this guy is of the TAG variety and probably opens and calls all of 22-QQ, 3 combos of KK, 2 of AA (discounted for 4bet factor),AQs+,AKo UTG.

Flop
should have bet it. leaky leaky. all of 55+ is likely calling and some of it doesn't call a turn bet if a higher card comes. i was happy to aim for two streets here, and while it obviously worked out in the end, i think flop and river is best, or perhaps flop and turn. but checking this flop is a bad mistake imo.

Turn
so the turn is friendly to me once again and doesn't kill any action from 55-TT which is the part of villain's range i want to be value betting against. i'd have preferred something like $2.3 or $2.4 here but given i'm a vbet fish perhaps i should just be grateful for the time being that i didn't check it. i think villain is calling me here with all of 55-TT,QQ, as well as AQcc,AQss,AKcc,AQss. i am discounting all full houses because they typically get bet or check/raised on the turn.


Board: 4s Jc 4c 6s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 95.455% 95.45% 00.00% 1260 0.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 04.545% 04.55% 00.00% 60 0.00 { QQ, TT-77, AcKc, AcQc, AcKs, AcQs }

even if he does have full houses and quads still in his range, there are only 7 possible combinations, and even if i give him them all:


Board: 4s Jc 4c 6s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.133% 78.13% 00.00% 1272 0.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 21.867% 21.87% 00.00% 356 0.00 { QQ-66, 44, AcKc, AcQc, AcKs, AcQs }

there's too few of them compared to middle pairs to change the equities dramatically.

River
because i happened to check the flop here, i actually think he will be check/calling with a lot, if not all, of 77-TT and QQ, and either leading or checkraising all his full houses and flushes (under this assumption i'm obviously bet/folding). i think he is very rarely, if ever, bluffing me on this river if he shows any aggression. so i have a clear vbet:


Board: 4s Jc 4c 6s 2c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 81.081% 81.08% 00.00% 30 0.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 18.919% 18.92% 00.00% 7 0.00 { QQ-66, 44, AcKc, AcQc, AcKs, AcQs }

Yeah defo bet the flop, not just because some pairs don't call bets on certain turns, but more importantly because any Jx he has is likely calling 3. Don't aim for 2 streets when there are combos of hands that call 3, especially when he could well be stationy with weaker parts of his range given hes basically unknown to us. Flop and turn are the best streets to bet here even if you were only going for 2 streets, since there's a club draw and like you say overcrads can induce folds from 77-TT etc. Rest of the hand is standard/well played.

Hand 4

villain here is 33/0 over only 3. no reads obviously. i would have gone for three here had the river not completed the flush because before the river card (and probably after as well, but my soon-to-be-done analysis will determine that) it was a great board texture to value town Qx - the turn pairing gives him only 7 combos of sets/FH's, and these can all be discounted because he C/C'd the flop AND the turn. also the Qx hands in his range have a hard time ever making two pair, unless he flopped top two, in which case i expect him to have shown more aggression at some point on the flop or turn (not to mention folding Q8 OOP pre). anyway the river completes the flush and i decide that all his flush draws got there (and i wont pay them off) and the Qx hands MAY not call 3 barrels often enough to outweigh the flush draws. it's quite possible that this was a clear 3-barrel for value spot and i shied away because i sensed the overwhelming results-oriented tilt which would ensue if he check/jammed the river, i'll hopefully know the best course of action in about half an hour.


okerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($25)
SB ($25.34)
BB ($10)
UTG ($25)
UTG+1 ($28.81)
MP1 ($13.26)
MP2 ($10.06)
MP3 ($27.05)
Hero (CO) ($25)
Preflop: Hero is CO with K, K
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $0.20, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, SB calls $0.95, 2 folds
Flop: ($2.48) 6, 8, Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, SB calls $2
Turn: ($6.48) 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5.30, SB calls $5.30
River: ($17.08) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Total pot: $17.08 | Rake: $0.83

Preflop
i suspect he calls 22-JJ,A6s+,A8o+,K8s+,KTo+,Q8s+,QTo+,J9s+,JTo, and suited connectors 43s-T9s

Flop
66,88-JJ,A7cc,A9-AKcc,43cc-65cc,T9s,A8o,A8s,AQs,AQo,KQs,KQo,Q8s+,QTo+

as this range has a lot of draws in it, and the only hands which have me crushed are 66,88,and Q8, i imagine i have a clear value bet here:


Board: 6c 8c Qs
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.524% 70.52% 00.00% 65630 0.00 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 29.476% 29.48% 00.00% 27430 0.00 { JJ-88, 66, AcKc, AQs, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, A8s, Ac7c, KQs, Q8s+, T9s, 6c5c, 5c4c, 4c3c, AQo, A8o, KQo, QTo+


Turn
This is a great turn card for my range, because it weakens his nut range considerably, and cuts half of the equity from the flush draws. i assume that he either leads or check/raises any hand stronger than Q8 here because it would be retarded not to, so i'll remove them. i'm also probably folding T9s except the T9cc which has a gutter/FD. i'll also remove A8,99 and TT.
i bet pretty large here because i want value from Q9+, and i want to reduce his implied odds as much as possible when he has a flush draw.

Board: 6c 8c Qs 6s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 89.676% 89.68% 00.00% 2328 0.00 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 10.324% 10.32% 00.00% 268 0.00 { JJ, AcKc, AQs, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac7c, KQs, Q9s+, Tc9c, 6c5c, 5c4c, 4c3c, AQo, KQo, QTo+ }


River
flush completes and like the fish i am, i shit my pants and don't attempt to value bet. i assume he doesn't C/R bluff this river, and in hindsight i think he is calling me with most, if not all his top pairs so pokerstove tells me i missed a shitload of value here


Board: 6c 8c Qs 6s 4c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.000% 75.00% 00.00% 27 0.00 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 25.000% 25.00% 00.00% 9 0.00 { AcKc, AQs, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac7c, KQs, QJs, Tc9c, 6c5c, 5c4c, 4c3c, AQo, KQo, QJo }


i'll see the minimum amount of Qx combos he has to be calling before value betting is -EV (assuming he never bluff-raises) just for fun.


Board: 6c 8c Qs 6s 4c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.333% 53.33% 00.00% 8 0.00 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 46.667% 46.67% 00.00% 7 0.00 { AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac7c, Tc9c, 6c5c, 4c3c, AcQd, AcQh, AdQc, AhQc, AhQd, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh }

turns out he only needs to be calling with AQ 2/3 of the time or more for value betting to be +EV based on the amount of flush draws i assign in his preflop range. however, once his range is so microscopic, as is the case on this river, the more suited hands he calls with pre, the worse a value bet is. my preflop ranges were just guesses with no substantial reads - he may actually be calling as loose as J2s+,Q2s+,K2s+ etc. in which case i need way more combos i beat to be in his river calling range in order to value bet.

odd that i only ever seem to think i'm value betting when i have an overpair haha. hopefully some of the other HH's i saved aren't when i have the top 2% of my preflop range, just to make it interesting

no such luck.

Hand 5

preflop i had my 3bet sized and everything then clicked the button next to it which happened to read "call". main postflop villain here is 16/11/3.5 (3b) and is opening 10% in early position according to my hud.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (BB) ($25.19)
UTG ($25)
UTG+1 ($10.85)
MP1 ($20.84)
MP2 ($33.16)
MP3 ($20.17)
CO ($15.49)
Button ($10.97)
SB ($16.20)
Preflop: Hero is BB with K, K
UTG bets $0.50, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.40
Flop: ($1.73) 7, 5, 10 (3 players)
Hero bets $1.30, UTG calls $1.30, 1 fold
Turn: ($4.33) A (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks
River: ($4.33) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.20, UTG calls $2.20
Total pot: $8.73 | Rake: $0.42

Preflop
without reads on this dude's UTG opening range, i'll assume it's 22+,AJs+,AJo+

Flop
i guess he is calling my lead with all sets, all overpairs, and any hand with the Qh or stronger. he may raise sets, but i've noticed a couple of players with similarish stats flatting sets on mono boards at 10nl lately, assumedly waiting to fill up.


Board: 5h 7h Th
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.470% 40.86% 01.61% 16586 652.50 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 57.530% 55.92% 01.61% 22699 652.50 { AcAh, AdAh, AhAs, KcKh, KdKh, KhKs, QQ-TT, 77, 55, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AcKh, AdKh, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AsKh, AcQh, AdQh, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AsQh, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs }

stove tells me vbetting here is bad, but i felt that after fucking up pre and seeing such a wet flop that i had to protect my hand, and i assumed that villain would let me know when he had the top part of his range so i could hopefully navigate postflop streets ok.

Turn
pretty much shuts me down, not just because "omg it's an over card wtf do i do", but because if i was ever good on the flop, his range is stronger than mine now, and also the hands which i beat in his range (JJ,QQ) are not likely to "bluff me" because this card sucks for them too. i decide that checking is my only option, however i didn't really formulate a plan for the river which is never good.

River
i actually think he's picking off a bet with all of his flop range here, so if checking the turn was good, i think checking the river has to be too. i'll stove that shit.


Board: 5h 7h Th As 2d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.895% 31.58% 01.32% 12 0.50 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 67.105% 65.79% 01.32% 25 0.50 { AcAh, AdAh, AhAs, KcKh, KdKh, KhKs, QQ-TT, 77, 55, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AcKh, AdKh, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AsKh, AcQh, AdQh, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AsQh, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs }

definitely prefer checking here. and check/folding too, seeing as i don't expect him to try to bet JJ-QQ for thin value, and the rest of his range has me crushed.

enough for now. hand 4 took me what felt like 5 hours because i kept messing up villain's range combos in stove and now i can hardly think.

Hand 6

villain here is 39/17/7(3b) fish who has checkraised 8% of 66 flops. while his 3bet is seemingly quite high, most of it seems to have been done out of the blinds versus would-be thieves (he has 3bet 17% from 12 on SB and 25% from 8 on BB versus steal attempts). only relevant note is that he open limped QTs in the CO and min-raised an UTG lead with top pair, ten kicker.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($22.26)
Hero (UTG+1) ($25.47)
MP1 ($18.57)
MP2 ($34.87)
MP3 ($10.74)
CO ($15)
Button ($19.09)
SB ($23.77)
BB ($10.75)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 6, 6
1 fold, Hero bets $0.50, 6 folds, BB calls $0.40
Flop: ($1.33) 6, 8, 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1, BB raises to $2, Hero raises to $5.30, BB raises to $10.23 (All-In), Hero calls $4.93
Turn: ($21.79) K (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($21.79) A (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $21.79 | Rake: $1.08

Preflop:
22-JJ,A8s+,ATo+,KTs+,KJo+,Q9s+,QJo,JTs,

Flop (Check/raising range)
55,77,88,A8s,56s,76s,87s 3 combos each of 99-JJ (due to read that any top pair or overpair seems like the nuts to this person, and he has minraised TPTK vs me before on the flop)

i figured that against villain's nuttest range my EV is pretty neutral (3 sets i beat, 3 i lose to) so i wanted to get as much value as possible from hands like 77,99-JJ, and the pair/straight draw hands. so instead of just 3bet shoving which i might often do here vs a fish, i decide to just put in half our stacks, because i felt he would be more inclined to just 4bet jam the aforementioned strong, but not "nut" range (obviously as well as his "nut" range) than he would be to call an overbet jam with a hand like 89s or 99.

Flop Range(Continuing range to my 3bet)
55-JJ, half of A8s, 56s,67s,87s


Board: 6c 8s 5h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.373% 23.27% 01.10% 8294 392.50 { JJ-55, Ac8c, Ad8d, 87s, 76s, 65s }
Hand 1: 75.627% 74.53% 01.10% 26561 392.50 { 6d6s }


EZ game

Hand 7
opener is 33/15, main villain is 19/7 over 69

he actually surprised me with he showed down here (hint: T9s) but i'll do the range analysis as i did in the hand.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($9.88)
Hero (BB) ($37.39)
UTG ($23.91)
UTG+1 ($30.84)
MP1 ($20.25)
MP2 ($15.12)
MP3 ($17.79)
CO ($21.82)
Button ($10.74)
Preflop: Hero is BB with K, K
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $0.40, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.40, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.80, 1 fold, MP3 calls $1.40
Flop: ($4.23) 6, 5, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.60, MP3 calls $3.60
Turn: ($11.43) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks
River: ($11.43) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $5.50, MP3 calls $5.50
Total pot: $22.43 | Rake: $1.09

Preflop
22-QQ,AJs+,AQo+

Flop
on a dry board in a 3bet pot, the only hands i feel i can really give him here are 55,66,TT-QQ, 3 combos each of 88-99 (cuz i have AK) and perhaps some Ax floats (same reason as he calls 88-99)


Board: 6h 5c Ts
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.439% 68.44% 00.00% 23714 0.00 { KcKh }
Hand 1: 31.561% 31.56% 00.00% 10936 0.00 { QQ-TT, 9d9h, 9d9s, 9h9s, 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, 66-55, AdKd, AsKs, AcKd, AcKs, AdKs, AhKd, AhKs, AsKd }

Turn
while this was a great card for me (removes almost a third of his possible sets - from 9 possible combos on flop to only 7 on the turn), i felt like the only part of his range i got another street from was JJ,QQ. i also felt that the best street for this was the river because
- he mightn't expect me to double barrel AK OOP in 3b pot
- i hold two blockers to the potential action killer cards
- at the time (this logic doesn't appear as sound in hindsight) i thought that an ace falling on the river wasn't so detrimental because he so rarely has one, so i can still value bet. however this doesn't mean he isn't scared by one should it fall on the river. Anyway, based on the above logic i thought it was a good spot to check (probably check/shove now that he has more JJ-QQ than sets) to induce some river value

River
this card kind of peaked me out. i felt like the only hand i could vbet against was JJ (although i was confident i could pretty much rule out 55,66 and TT when he checked back the turn). if his range was exclusively JJ and QQ i can obviously value bet here because he has JJ twice as much. however i opted for a smaller sizing than i perhaps could have bet because i didn't want to bet so much that JJ doesn't call, thus value-towning the shit out of myself. i guess i was bet/folding because if he's clever enough to realise that i am betting for "thin" value and jams accordingly, he should be having level wars with M2M at 200nl. thus i felt i could safely bet for value vs JJ and fold to a raise (which signals a range, as far as i was concerned of exclusively full houses). the equity here is pretty simple as villains continuing range, as i perceive it, holds only 9 combinations:


Board: 6h 5c Ts 5s Qd
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.667% 66.67% 00.00% 6 0.00 { KcKh }
Hand 1: 33.333% 33.33% 00.00% 3 0.00 { QQ-JJ }

he may also decide to hero call here with 88,99 or even AK in which case bet/folding becomes even sweeter.

even though i haven't got my 10 vbet examples posted, i'm moving on to this weeks assignment - analysing 4 cbets, 2 3-bet bluffs, and 4 other bluffs of my choice. i'll start with the cbets.

C-bet #1
i'll start with an easy one.
villain is 22/10/6.3 (3bet) over 196
for some reason i didnt copy down his fold to cbet stat which is kind of retarded but given most of my play is against relatively unknowns i'll assume (like most 10nlers) he folds to 60-70% of cbets and doesn't float habitually.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($9.97)
UTG ($40.46)
UTG+1 ($10.48)
MP1 ($25.38)
MP2 ($9.55)
Hero (CO) ($25)
Button ($27.13)
SB ($9.20)
Preflop: Hero is CO with K, Q
4 folds, Hero bets $0.40, Button calls $0.40, 2 folds
Flop: ($1.11) J, 9, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, Button calls $0.80
Turn: ($2.71) J (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks
River: ($2.71) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.30, Button raises to $8, Hero calls $5.70
Total pot: $18.71 | Rake: $0.92

Preflop
22-JJ,A8s-AQs,AT-AQo,KTs+,KJo,Q9s+,QJo,JTs,JTo, 43s-T9s,75s-T8s

broken down into combinations:

22-JJ (60), A8s-AJs (16), AQs (3), ATo (12), AJo (12), AQo (9), KTs (3), KJs (3), KQs (2), KTo (9), KJo (9), KQo (7), Q9s-QJs (12), QJo (9), JTs (4), JTo (12), 43-T9s (32), 75s-T8s (16)

for a total of 221 combinations.

(edited after i found i had missed the "0" and said 22-JJ has only 6 total combinations)

Flop
i imagine my flop cbet would be profitable against this range in a vacuum, without the equity derived from my gutterball and two overcards (at least one of which has to be a clean pair out against what i'll assume his calling range is). i'll say he calls with all hands stronger than middle pair, all 4+ out draws. calling range:
33 (3), 99 (3), JJ (3), A9s (3), AJs (3), AJo (9), KTs (3), KJs (2), KQs (2), KJo (7), KQo (7), Q9s (2), QTs (3), QJo (6), JTs (3), JTo (9), 98s (3), T9s (3), T8s (4), 97s (3), 87s (4)


this comes to 85 combinations he is calling with. 221-85=136 combos he is folding. 136/221 = 61% percent of his range will be folded. based on my betsizing, i need him to fold 0.8 / 1.91 = 42% of his range to my flop cbet in order for it to be profitable in a vacuum. as he is folding 61% of his range on the flop, my cbet is +EV in a vacuum.

might as well keep analysing just for kicks.

(note: i decided to double check my work thus far and found some pretty big errors in the preflop and flop range analysis. these most likely carried over to my analysis of later streets, however i can't be bothered proof reading/editing them because the purpose of this exercise is to study cbets)

Turn
when he checks back here i am inclined to discount all Jx hands from his range and all sets. this is important for how the river happened to play out.

River
my lead is obviously for value because my line looks FOS (ie i'm repping a strong range but few strong hands make sense when i check the turn) and is likely to get looked up by any Tx hands which were drawing to a straight, and perhaps some 9x as a result. when he raises i had to tank for a bit - i doubt he's ever bluffing here, but he has taken a very strange line for him to ever have a full house on this river. he definitely has the two straights in his range - of which i have the better one (and blockers to him having the same hand). i'll see how often he has to have checked back Jx or a set on the turn in order for this to be a fold (i'm assuming it's a pretty easy call as is)
i have to call 5.70 more into a total pot of 13, so i'm getting about 2.3:1. translating to roughly 30% equity.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
20 games 0.030 secs 666 games/sec
Board: Jh 9s 3c Jc Th
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.500% 20.00% 22.50% 4 4.50 { KsQh }
Hand 1: 57.500% 35.00% 22.50% 7 4.50 { 99, 33, KQs, J9s, 87s, KQo }

far easier call than i thought at the time. calling becomes even more fun if he has some Jx hands in his range which dont have me beat ie JQ,JK etc.

holy shit this one felt good. especially because he tried the old limp/3bet

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($10)
BB ($20.02)
UTG ($12.45)
UTG+1 ($47.33)
MP1 ($22.78)
MP2 ($39.27)
MP3 ($20.94)
Hero (CO) ($54.33)
Button ($26.43)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 8, 8
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, 3 folds, Hero bets $0.60, 3 folds, UTG+1 raises to $1.50, Hero calls $0.90
Flop: ($3.33) 3, 8, Q (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $3.70, Hero raises to $11, UTG+1 raises to $45.81 (All-In), Hero calls $34.81
Turn: ($94.95) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($94.95) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $94.95 | Rake: $2

Originally Posted by rpm

holy shit this one felt good. especially because he tried the old limp/3bet

I've been experiementing with the old limp/3bet ploy. Usually against habitual raisers with position on 1+ limpers, but who are likely to fold to early position bets.

I think your villian 3bet too small. Would you have called a $2.20-$2.40 3bet? And no, I am not your villian, lol.

i honestly believe you're better off just keeping them in your opening range. as the above hand illustrates, if you're limp/raising exclusively your nut range, you are very susceptible to exploitation because perceptive people can
A - call with extremely good implied odds when deep because your range is clearly so strong
B - know to fold say AK or QQ when you limp/raise UTG, thus costing you a shitload of value from the top of your range, which is where i feel most of the money is at micros (3 streets from tptk/overpairs etc).

i don't mind limp/raising if there's a psycho whale behind you. i remember recently playing a dude who would jam 250bb preflop if it hadn't been raised before him, but if it had been raised prior he typically either flatted or just folded. OOP against someone like this i'm limp/calling any hand that i'm willing to stack off with, which obviously includes KK+. however this table dynamic is a super rare exception to the general rule that limp/3betting your nut range is highly exploitable imo.

as for the hand above. yeah i would probably call up to like $4 preflop here because we are 500ish BB deep and his limp/3bet range is super strong. only making it $1.50 here was terrible on his part because he turns his range relatively face up and gives me the opportunity to call with a super wide range based on my implied odds, knowing that he stacks off super deep on a lot of flops.

Cbet #2
SB is 12/6/0 over 200ish
fold SB to steal = 86% of 7
fold BB to steal = 70% of 10

again i forgot to record his fold to cbet business but i'm pretty sure it's high, like 70-80%, and this kind of high Fold to CB frequency is typical of these 12/6's at my stakes so i'll say he folds to cbet 75%

i didnt record the stats of any of the limpers either. i'm just going to pretend im heads up with the SB for ease of analysis.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($10.38)
BB ($25.84)
UTG ($27.78)
UTG+1 ($11.68)
MP1 ($21.34)
MP2 ($11.52)
CO ($10.32)
Hero (Button) ($25.08)
Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, K
UTG calls $0.10, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.10, 1 fold, CO (poster) checks, Hero bets $0.80, SB calls $0.75, 2 folds, MP1 calls $0.70, 1 fold
Flop: ($2.86) 3, J, 10 (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $1.80, SB calls $1.80, 1 fold
Turn: ($6.46) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
River: ($6.46) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $4, Hero folds
Total pot: $6.46 | Rake: $0.31

Preflop
22-JJ,ATs+,ATo+,KJs+,KQo

22-JJ (60), ATs (4), AJs (4), AQs (3), AKs (3), ATo (12), AJo (12), AQo (9), AKo (9), KJs (3), KQs (2), KQo (7)

total of 128 combinations.

Flop (call)
33 (3), TT (3), JJ (3), ATs (3), AJs (3), AQs (3), AKs (3) ATo (9), AJo (9), AQo (9), AKo (9), KJs (2), KQs (2), KQo (7)

so he's calling with 68 combinations
meaning he's folding 127 - 68 = 59 or
59/127 = 46% of his range

i need him to fold 1.8 / (1.8 + 2.86) = 38% of his range in a vacuum based on my betsizing.
so my cbet is +EV in a vacuum, disregarding that i have 6 nut outs and potentially 14 outs to the best hand on the turn.

Turn
i check here because this card does not improve my perceived range and i don't think he called the flop with any pair hands that fold to another bet on this turn card. i perhaps could have bet here given i have decent equity when called and he might fold SOME hands that beat me ie ATs and the ace-high gutterballs, but my results-oriented instinct said not to bet any air here on this board vs a nitty range, and to take a free card with anywhere between 6 and 14 outs to the best hand.

River
even if he thinks he's bluffing here, with say AcQc, i don't really beat any of his range what so ever so i feel it's an easy fold.

this one took surprisingly less time than typical for me. maybe because villain's range was smaller and easier to deal with, or maybe i've made a million mistakes or missed a couple of steps. maybe i'm actually improving. i'll review later and edit any errors i may find.

i've got a couple more HH's saved for the cbets, but i haven't been really feeling like 3betting light or bluffing much postflop lately because i've been playing fewer tables, and table selecting pretty vigilantly. last night i was sitting to the left of three >250bb deep 50/4ish types for a solid 1.5-2 hours. pity this weeks study topic was the theory/application of bluffing and not "value towning deep-stacked weak/passive/calling stations". i'm not complaining though. report back soon.

Originally Posted by rpm

holy shit this one felt good. especially because he tried the old limp/3bet

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($10)
BB ($20.02)
UTG ($12.45)
UTG+1 ($47.33)
MP1 ($22.78)
MP2 ($39.27)
MP3 ($20.94)
Hero (CO) ($54.33)
Button ($26.43)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 8, 8
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, 3 folds, Hero bets $0.60, 3 folds, UTG+1 raises to $1.50, Hero calls $0.90
Flop: ($3.33) 3, 8, Q (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $3.70, Hero raises to $11, UTG+1 raises to $45.81 (All-In), Hero calls $34.81
Turn: ($94.95) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($94.95) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $94.95 | Rake: $2

nh

Originally Posted by rpm

i've got a couple more HH's saved for the cbets, but i haven't been really feeling like 3betting light or bluffing much postflop lately because i've been playing fewer tables, and table selecting pretty vigilantly. last night i was sitting to the left of three >250bb deep 50/4ish types for a solid 1.5-2 hours. pity this weeks study topic was the theory/application of bluffing and not "value towning deep-stacked weak/passive/calling stations". i'm not complaining though. report back soon.

yeah that was last week ldo

Cbet #3
this one doesn't appear as obvious a Cbet as the first two. it's quite possibly a bad one given i have little equity when called.
our villain here is 52/7 over 33. note on him reads "limp/call broadway card/xs in EP" (i think he limp called Q2s UTG+1 fwiw). has folded to 100% of cbets thus far (probably only 4 at most)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($25)
UTG+1 ($22.24)
MP1 ($6.61)
MP2 ($34.32)
Hero (CO) ($28.47)
Button ($19.17)
SB ($20.15)
BB ($10)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 9, K
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, 2 folds, Hero bets $0.60, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.50
Flop: ($1.51) 6, 5, 10 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.10, 1 fold
Total pot: $1.51 | Rake: $0.07

Preflop
i'm discounting JJ+ and the higher Ax hands because, despite being passive, he has raised preflop over this sample (and if he does limp say AA or KK he's likely to be limp/3betting it)

22-99,A2s-ATs,A7-AJo,K2s+,K9o+,Q2s+,Q9o+,J5s+,J9o+,T6s+,T8o+,32s-98s,42s-97s,

22-88 (42), 99 (3), A2s-A8s (28), A9s (3), ATs (4), A7o (12), A8o (12), A9o (9), ATo-AJo (24), K2s-KQs (30), K9o (5), KTo-KQo (18), Q2s-Q8s (28), Q9o (9), QTo-QJo (24), J5s-J8s (12), J9s (3), JTs (4), J9o (9), JTo (12), T6s-T8s (12), T9s (3), T8o (12), T9o (9), 32-87s (24), 98s (3), 42s-86s, 97s (3)

for a total of 357
that was tedious/probably error-laden

Flop
seeing as i should be aware of how often i need my opponent to fold before i make the bet (or should i be determining how often they fold and then decide my betsize?), i'll find my required fold % before i dissect his range.

1.10/(1.10+1.51) = 42%

55 (3), 66 (3), 77-88 (12), 99 (3), A2hh-A5hh (4), A6s (3), A7hh-A9hh (3), ATs (3), ATo (9), K2hh-K5hh (4), K6s (2), K7hh-K9hh (3), KTs (2), KJhh-KQhh (2), KTo (7), Q2hh-Q5hh (4), Q6s (3), Q7hh-Q9hh (3), QJhh (1), QTo (9), J5hh (1), J6s (3), J7hh-J9hh (3), JTo (9), T6s (3), T7s-T8s (6), T9s (2), T8o (9), T9o (7), 32-43s (8), 65s (2), 54hh (1), 76s (3), 87s (4), 98s (3) 42s (4), 53hh (1), 64s (3), 75s (3), 86s (3), 97s (4)

so he's calling with 174 combos and folding 357 - 174 = 183
183/357 = 51%

so my cbet was +EV assuming i didnt miscalculate combos or mess up the math too drastically. being as tired as i am, there's a pretty good chance i did make some errors.

i've now played 50k hands since i started this so-called "operation" and i'm up $464 + $90 in stellar bonuses. that includes a couple of 2000bbish downsings which were more the result of tilty/spewy play than variance. however i feel like i am becoming less prone to tilting and spewing the more i learn about the game, which i think i am currently doing at a rapid rate thanks to regular coaching and study sessions. i also cascaded my tables for the first time ever in tonights session, which made it far easier to play more tables than tiling. might start cascading and playing more tables when the games are particularly good. wouldn't want to be at 10 tables full of regs playing like a robot though. night FTR.

Cbet #4

our villain here is 13/7/0 over 74 hands with no fold to cbet sample. because he has stats which indicate he is likely a TAG or nitty kind of a player, i imagine he is decent enough to realise he should be raising anything he's VPIP'ing here and when he limps it's likely with hands that look to pretty not to try to see a flop with ie low pairs or suited connectors.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($14.41)
Button ($25.49)
SB ($25.80)
BB ($20.41)
UTG ($12.87)
UTG+1 ($25.24)
MP1 ($17.41)
Hero (MP2) ($27.48)
MP3 ($27.68)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 10, K
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.60, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.50
Flop: ($1.53) J, 2, 2 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1, 1 fold
Total pot: $1.53 | Rake: $0.07

Preflop
given that this guy seems an ok player (by 10nl standards) over the small sample, i think he is definitely raising at least 77+,AQ+ pre. and when he limp/calls i imagine this range is dominated by things like 22-66, middle suited connectors and maybe some Axs. i'll give him all of it because i know very little about him

22-66, A2s-ATs, 43s-JTs

22-66 (30), A2s-A9s (32), ATs (3), 43s-98s (20), T9s-TJs (6)

total of 93 combinations.

Flop
i feel his limp/calling range connects terribly with this board. and the range he calls is very vulnerable to two barrels if a Q,K or A falls on the turn, all of which are cards which give me fold equity against villain's range AND increase my pot equity (ie i pick up a gutterball at worst). anyway, i need 1/(1+1.53) = 39% folds for my cbet to be +EV in a vacuum. i imagine he is folding far more than 39% of the time based on the range i assigned him. i'll investigate. i think his calling range will be smaller than his folding range so i'll determine that first.

22 (1), 33-66 (24), A2s (2) ATs (3), JTs (2)

total of 30 combinations he calls with

meaning he folds 63 combinations.
63/93 = 67%
therefore it's a no-brainer cbet based on my assumption of my opponents' range.

here's another fun one to
A - perhaps alleviate some tilt when this kind of thing next happens to me
B - celebrate 600 posts
C - bolster my results-oriented ego

opener is an aggro tard. he recently lost a 250bb pot, he plays bad, and is most likely tilted. the flop looks about as good as it can get for me, especially when tard open shoves -his range on the flop is definitely any overpair, and fuck knows what other garbage. tard had JJ. BB super-snap called with 99. i'm pretty sure he's not a reg but, to his credit, he just said "nh" in the chat and manually reloaded within two hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($19.14)
UTG ($27.75)
UTG+1 ($41.96)
MP1 ($10.05)
Hero (MP2) ($25)
MP3 ($9.77)
CO ($7.86)
Button ($9.28)
SB ($26)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, A
UTG bets $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $3.30, 3 folds, SB calls $3.25, BB calls $3.20, UTG calls $2.30
Flop: ($13.38) 9, 2, 2 (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $24.43 (All-In), Hero calls $21.68 (All-In), 1 fold, BB calls $15.82 (All-In)
Turn: ($72.56) 3 (3 players, 3 all-in)
River: ($72.56) A (3 players, 3 all-in)
Total pot: $72.56 | Rake: $2

some real hands with analysis to come after i listen to a lecture. unless i am too tired, which wouldnt be a bad result because i would then be more likely to get to sleep and get out of bed at a reasonable hour in the morning.

CBet #1 - Flop bet size could be smaller. Good analysis.

CBet #2 - This is a great example of a good time to c-bet multiway with tons of equity. Note the free card you get as well.

CBet #3 - Here Villain's flop range is going to be so wide that he's got to be folding enough for it to be +EV or he's calling with a LOT of Ace-high hands which you actually have decent equity against except the times he has you dominated (ie A9). Isolating these guys and lobbing c-bets is a place where there has always been, and will likely always will be, toooons of money in NLHE cash.

CBet #4 - We'll talk about this hand specifically next session.

Also that AA hand is super standard in case you didn't already know that.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Also that AA hand is super standard in case you didn't already know that.

don't worry. i did. there are essentially only 4 combos which beat me on this flop. and calling the aggro's open shove is super duper +EV given he definitely has any pair TT+, plus who knows how many more combos of air that he's spazzing with. coolering coolers ftw

i have now saved all of the HH's and relevant player notes for this week's study. just gotta convert, analyse and post. i'll set saturday morning as my target (not goal, thanks tommy) for getting this done.

3bet #1

villain is 20/14/7 (3bet) over 600. his ATS is 43. obviously his fold to 3bet stat (to a degree) and his c/r flop, fold to cbet etc stats would be helpful but i'm a fish so i dont have them. note to self: record them with the HH's i future. ok.

although Q9s isn't the best hand choice to 3bet "bluff" this guy, i don't think it's terrible because it plays decently postflop and is well disguised etc etc. however there may be a valid argument for not 3betting hands that his calling range can dominate ie AQ KQ etc, but i haven't even determined his calling range yet so i'll hopefully soon find out.

to be honest i think i could have 72o here and show a profit in a vacuum by 3betting pre and cbetting most flops. i also used his fold to cbet stat to guide my decisions here but for some reason didn't copy it into notepad with the HH. i'll arbitrarily say it's 60%.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP1 ($12.49)
MP2 ($25)
MP3 ($14.69)
Hero (CO) ($25.19)
Button ($7.38)
SB ($29.59)
BB ($28.06)
UTG ($25.27)
UTG+1 ($17.19)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 9, Q
3 folds, MP2 bets $0.40, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.40, 4 folds
Total pot: $1.13 | Rake: $0

Preflop
i imagine this guy is opening reasonably wide here, by 10nl standards at least. i'll say
22+, A8s+, A9o+, K9s+, KTo+, Q9s+, QTo+, J8s+, JTo.
he may be more inclined to open say 43s-T9s then some of the more marginal holdings in that range but whatever.

so we have:
22-88 (42), 99 (3), TT-JJ (12), QQ (3), KK+ (12), A8s (4), A9s (3), ATs-AJs (8), AQs (3), AKs (4), A9o (9), ATo-AJo (24), AQo (9), AKo (12), K9s (3), KTs-KJs (8), KQs (3), KTo-KJo (24), KQo (9), Q9s (3), QTs-QJs (6), QTo-QJo (18), J8s (4), J9s (3), JTs (4), JTo (12)

245 combos.

i need him to fold 1.4/(1.4+0.73) = 65%. i should not here that this table has antes which the HH doesn't clearly illustrate unless you count the total pot.

as i mentioned, i'm pretty new to 3bet bluffing so i'm not really sure of what i can expect villain's to be calling 3bets with, especially as we are 250bb deep. however, of this range i'll say he continues with (either call or 4bet):
22+, AJs+, AQo+, KQs, KQo, QJs, JTs

which comes to:
22-88 (42), 99 (3), TT-JJ (12), QQ (3), KK+ (12), AJs (8), AQs (3), AKs (4), AQo (9), AKo (12), KQs (3), KQo (9), QJs (3), JTs (4)

for a total of 127 combos. meaning he folds 245 - 127 = 118 or
118/245= 48% of his opening range. as i need him to fold 65%, my 3bet is not +EV in a preflop vacuum, however this doesn't calculate my postflop equity, or the fact that i can cbet air and get him to fold a lot of low pairs etc etc. i'm not sure if it matters this early in the hand, but i have


Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.417% 61.87% 00.55% 130303950 1155235.50 { 22+, AJs+, KQs, QJs, JTs, AQo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 37.583% 37.03% 00.55% 77998971 1155235.50 { Qs9s }

37% equity against his continuing range, plus i gain pretend money FTOP-wise when i cbet AJ3 and get him to fold 22,44-TT or whatever, which is technically "correct" in calling in sklansky-land.

3bet #2

villain here is 15/11, 60% ATS. again i fucked up and didn't record near enough stats to do a good analysis. but then again i can just make them up for that purpose if needs be.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG+1 ($25)
MP1 ($31.53)
MP2 ($10.27)
CO ($55.64)
Hero (Button) ($50.60)
SB ($16.70)
BB ($30.16)
UTG ($15.20)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 4, A
3 folds, MP2 bets $0.40, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.40, 2 folds, MP2 calls $1
Flop: ($3.11) 9, 8, 2 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $1.80, MP2 calls $1.80
Turn: ($6.71) 5 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero checks
River: ($6.71) A (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $4.10, 1 fold
Total pot: $6.71 | Rake: $0.32

Preflop
not sure if ATS counts opening from the HJ, but his high ATS and VPIP/PFR ratio show that he is likely decent, positionally aware, and raising liberally from the last three seats. on this presumption i assumed that he also knows that 3bets at 10nl are typically not to be messed with. especially OOP.

22+,A6s+,A8o+,K7s+,KTo+,Q8s+,Q9o+,J8s+,J9o+,43s-T9s,75s-T8s

22-33(12), 44 (3), 55-KK (54), A6s+ (24), A8o+ (54), K7s+ (24), KTo+ (36), Q8s+ (16), Q9o+ (36), J8s+ (12), J9o+ (24), 43s-T9s(32), 75s-T8s (12)

for a total of 319 combos of which i imagine he calls with

77+,AQs+,AQo+,KQs,KQo

77-KK (42), AA (3), AQ+ (24), KQ (16)

for a total of 85 combos, meaning he folds 319 - 85 = 234
or 234/319 = 73% of his range.

i won't comment much on the postflop play of the hand, except that i think once he has checked the turn AND the river he never has any sets, and his range is mostly TT-QQ AhQh, AhKh, KhQh, and perhaps sometimes some 77 or 66. i also think my vbet sizing on the river wasn't great (i'd have preferred perhaps $3.50 so as to increase the likelihood of TT-QQ calling).

General bluff #1

villain is 11/9/2.7 (3b) over 322
31% ATS, 56% flop cbet, 2/3 turn cbets

so he's what we generalisers like to call a "nitty-TAG"

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG+1 ($12.09)
MP1 ($4.80)
MP2 ($9.54)
CO ($10.05)
Hero (Button) ($13.05)
SB ($10)
BB ($14.72)
UTG ($8.05)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 5, 5
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, CO bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.30
Flop: ($1.35) 3, 8, 2 (3 players)
MP2 checks, CO bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60, 1 fold
Turn: ($2.55) Q (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $1.80, CO calls $1.80
River: ($6.15) J (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3.90, 1 fold
Total pot: $6.15 | Rake: $0.30

Preflop
i suspect he's opening reasonably wide here because he knows how to steal blinds to a degree, and he probably sees me as the 18/15 i am (ie not a 50/3) so i'm not going to be giving him TOO much grief (until i get some more study/practice in 3betting/3bet pots )

Range:
22+,A2s+A7o+,K6s,+K9o+,Q8s+,Q9o+,J8s+,J8o+,T7s+,T8 o+,43s-98s, 64s-97s

i checked that in stove for a bit of actual range size/HUD%stat perspective and it came to 35% so i may be giving him a bit too much credit for stealing blinds but that's roughly the range i'd give him in the play of the hand so i'll stick with it. combos:

22-44 (18), 55 (3), 66-AA (54), A2s-A4s (4), A5s (2), A6s-AKs (32), A7o+ (84), K6s+ (32), K9o+ (48), Q8s+ (16), Q9o+ (36), J8s+ (12), J8o+ (36), T7s+ (12), T8o+ (24), 43s-98s (24), 64s-97s (16)

coming to 453 combinations.

i'm obviously flatting for set-value as well as to steal some pots from him postflop using my power of position and incredible hand-reading skills (pffft)

Flop
given this guy is a 11/9, i assumed he knows remotely how to value bet, and given his flop cbet sizing (pretty terrible if his particular holding is strong ie JJ+ or AsKs, whatever), i think he's cbetting a decent amount of air from his preflop range. that said, i have no idea how much he knows about good board textures to cbet vs certain ranges, how having more than 1 opponent effects cbet strategy etc. so most of this is highly speculative. 'im going to say that he cbets all 4+ out draws, sets, missed overcards, overpairs and top pair hands. this may be hugely unrealistic but i'm just doing it to get a feel for range sizes/weakness/strength over streets etc, not treating it as a soul-read of some faceless dude's cbet range who i've played 300 hands against.

22 (3), 33 (3), 99 (3), A4s (4), A5s (3), A8s (3), A9s+ (20), A8o (9), A9o+ (60), K8s (3), K9s+ (16), K9o+ (48), Q8s (3), Q9s+ (12), Q9o+ (36), J8s (3), J9s+ (8), J8o (9), J9o+ (24), T8s (3), T9s (4), T8o (8), T9o (12), 45s (3), 65s (3), 64s (4)

coming to 307 combos, or 307/453 = 67% of his preflop range.

Turn
i feel this is a good card for my range for a couple of reasons:
- i didn't raise the flop so i don't often have sets
- i therefore definitely have flush draws in my range on the flop
- if i bet and he calls, his range is largely Asx Ksx 99-JJ hands which i can fold out on a lot of river cards. his line makes little sense for a nut hand such as a flopped set (note shitty size cbet on flush draw board) or turned flush (more likely to lead? C/R?)

ok so he checks. i've seen some really weak/tight play at 10nl lately but i'm going to assume he leads all sets and flushes here because he an 11/9 (actually a 10/9 in my db now). he's so tight he hasn't played a hand since 'nam and now he has one he needs to get paid.

so check/calling range:
As8x (3), As9x (4), AsTx (4), AsJx (4), AQ (12), AsKx (4), Ks9x (4), KsTx (4) KsJx (4), KQ (12), 99, TT, JJ

i'm inclined to discount all AQ and KQ hands, because i think he leads them some of the time, particularly the Asqx and KsQx but i'll leave them in due to this all being speculation/me pasting my tendencies onto a relatively unknown player

River

so a good card falls (which is almost any card except and ace or a spade i think) and i decide to follow through with the plan, feeling like there is no need to bet close to pot because if he ever has TPTK here, he's not folding. i'm looking to fold out 99,TT,A8, and perhaps even AsJx. there could perhaps be an argument for checking back here with SD value. i'll divide his turn range into hands that beat me on the river and hands that don't and determine what i think he calls/folds

beats me:
As8x (3), folds
AsJx (4), folds
AQ (12), calls
KQ (12) calls
KsJx(3) folds
99 (6) folds
TT (6) folds
JJ (3) calls

22 fold, 27 call

i beat:
As9x (4),
AsTx (4),
AsKx (4),
Ks9x (4),
KsTx (4),

20 fold

69 combos, 27 are calling. 42 are folding. 42/67 = 62% of the time he folds. i need him to fold 3.9/(3.9+6.15) = 38% so my river bluff was +EV in a vacuum based on the above ranges. which are hugely questionable. i obviously didn't go into near this much quantification in the hand, i just felt like his river was going to have >50% hands that wouldn't call a bet on a non-spade or ace river due to all the Asx hands and 99-JJ 8x etc.

Nice bluff. Did you go into this hand planning to bluff or did it just seem like a good spot as the hand played out? If he bets the River $3.90, I'm guessing you would fold?

Also, if you use HEM, it can break up total Steal% into CO Steal% and Button Steal%. Do you check those stats separately?

ok. it is now quite clear that due to my own slackness, i won't get all of the HH's posted up before tomorrow morning when i have my next coaching session. however i WILL post them up before i start posting for the next study topic. PlayToWin, i'll respond to the above post once i finish the work on the actual hand.

Originally Posted by PlayToWin

Nice bluff. Did you go into this hand planning to bluff or did it just seem like a good spot as the hand played out? If he bets the River $3.90, I'm guessing you would fold?

Also, if you use HEM, it can break up total Steal% into CO Steal% and Button Steal%. Do you check those stats separately?

i certainly went into the hand planning to use my position to my advantage, which is quite often going to mean stealing pots. his cbet seemed to indicate weakness because he's a nit and the flop had two spades etc vs two opponents. most decent TAGs are betting close to pot here with anything that's for "value" (including nut flush draws). he checks the turn so i feel like he never really has a strong "made" hand, but he may have a hand with decent equity ie the range i assigned him on the turn of mostly one-card flush draws and middlish pairs. so i planned to bluff any river which didnt connect strongly with his calling range (ie a spade or an ace, or maybe a king).

i do sometimes take note of the differences betwee people's CO Steal and BU Steal at the table but i'll typically need a large sample for that, which i don't have on many players, so i just use the "ATS" stat which i believe counts opening from the CO, BU, and SB

Bluff #2

our villain is 11/7/0 over 130. 23% ATS.

basically i needed a HH to analyse for bluffing and i decided i'd donk bet a flop which didn't seem to hit the PFR's range just because i never do that, and so i thought it would be worth analysing in terms of ranges etc because it might actually be quite profitable against certain opponents/ranges.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP3 ($18.42)
CO ($30.02)
Button ($8.73)
Hero (SB) ($25.33)
BB ($25)
UTG ($19.84)
UTG+1 ($21.41)
MP1 ($25.68)
MP2 ($13.03)
Preflop: Hero is SB with K, Q
6 folds, Button bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.25, 1 fold
Flop: ($0.88) 9, 7, 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.60, 1 fold
Total pot: $0.88 | Rake: $0.04

Preflop
pretty standard seeming villain. bit of a nit, but seemingly positionally aware over my sample, i'm guessing he's raising pretty much all pairs/a few aces/all broadways

22-JJ (60), QQ-KK (6), AA (6), A8(4), A9s (3), ATs-AJs (8), AQs (3), AKs (3), A8o (12), A9o (8), ATo-AJo (24), AQo (9), AKo (9), KTs-KJs (6), KQs (2) KTo-KJo (24), KQo (6), QTs+ (6), QTo+ (18), JTs (4), JTo (12)

total of 223 combos

Flop
i'll say he continues with any any hand stronger than a pair of sevens, as well AK high just because it's too pretty to let go (basically just factoring in the possibility of him floating) i just realised this flop actually has a flush draw. i didn't realise this until just now. doubt that'll help my fold equity. anyway, calling range:

22 (3), 77 (3), 88 (6), 99 (3), TT-JJ (12), QQ-KK (6), AA (6), Ad8d (1), A9s (4), AdQd+ (3), A9o (9), AK (12), KdTd-KdQd (3), QdTd-QtJd (2), JdTd (1)

total of 75 combos, 223-75 = 148.
148/223 = 66% of his range he is folding
i bet 2/3 pot so he only needed to fold 40% of his range for my bet to be +EV in a vacuum

Yeah donking here is fine. It does suck when he turns out to be the sort of random tard who auto raises all leads, but if he does fold then you can note this isn't the case and look for more spots to donk a range of nuts, air and good draws on boards where he's unlikely to c bet. On this flop though there are a bunch of draws that you can be b/3 betting so I think this is an unlikely spot for a stright forward looking guy to play back at you.

Also we have okay equity vs any mid pair hand he'll flat and a ton of turns to barrel him off of his hand on. Given the drawy nature of this board, i expect him to raise most of his strong hands here, leaving his flatting range weak and attackable on many turns and rivers. If your plan is to barrel him off his flatting range often then this is good. The next best option is to c/f the flop expecting him to give up a fair amount so you can take it away on the turn. C/R and C/c flop are both ugly, so yah good shit sir.

cheers for the comment, carrotzz. i must admit i'm guilty of thoughtlessly raising people's leads with air from time to time. although it's usually vs the 1-4bb donk bets that seem to fold to raises 90% of the time more so than the 3/4-full pot sized leads.

in other news i crossed the 2000bb profit at 10nl mark today so i will be playing mostly 25nl from now on, unless i encounter a violent downswing or one of my favourite recreational droolers is playing 10nl. i may also take a shot at goldstar by the end of the month, although the schoolwork is piling up.

peace.

been far too busy with school work lately for any poker study or grind. that is my own fault because i let myself get so behind but whatever.

Bluff # can't remember. been too long

villain is a complete unknown as far as the notes i saved go. i'm guessing he posted in the CO and then played this hand because i would have recorded the info with the HH if i had any. basically another spot where i decided to flat a blind-steal OOP because
- he has worse K's in his range
- he has worse J's in his range
- i'm a donk and so like to give myself opportunities to donk-bet

basically i felt like this missed so much of a standard BU opening range, and i can fold out some of 22-66 and Ax which is correct in calling according to mr sklanksy.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP2 ($23.75)
CO ($26.79)
Button ($25)
SB ($19.35)
Hero (BB) ($25)
UTG ($24.10)
UTG+1 ($21.27)
MP1 ($53.44)
Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, K
5 folds, Button bets $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50
Flop: ($1.60) 7, 7, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $1, 1 fold
Total pot: $1.60 | Rake: $0.08

Preflop
complete unknown but his sizing may be an indicator that he knows a bit about stealing blinds (ie its small so he can do it with a wider range). i'm going to go ahead and assume he's somewhere between 10/8 and 16/12 which is where a huge % of the 25nlers i've encountered seem to fall. these guys typically ATS between 30 and 40%.

Range:
22+,A2s+,A2o+,K5s+,K9o+,Q7s+,Q8o+,J7s+,J8o+,43s-T9s,43o-T9o,64s-T8s

Flop

full range on flop w/blockers:

22-66 (30), 77 (1), 88-99 (12), TT (3), JJ(6), QQ-KK (6), AA (6), A2s- A6s (20), A7s (2), A8s-A9s (8), ATs (3), AJs (4), AQs-AKs (6), A2o-A6o (60), A7o (6), A8o-A9o (24), ATo (9), AJo (12), AQo-AKo (18), K5s-K6s 6), K7s (2), K8s-K9s (6), KTs (2), KJs (3), KQs (2), K9o (9), KTo (7), KJo (9), KQo (7), Q7s (1), Q8s-Q9s (6), QTs (2), QJs (3), Q8o-Q9o (18), QTo (7), QJo (9), J7s (2), J8s-J9s (8), JTs (3), J8o-J9o (24), JTo (9), 43s-65s (12), 76s (2), 87s (2), 98s (4), T9s (3), 43o-65o (36), 76o (7), 78o (7), 98o (12), T9o (9), 64s (4), 75s (2), 86s (4), 97s (2), T8s (3)

goddamn factoring in blockers. 490 combos. his preflop range is obviously the same as that plus the potential combos which became blocked by the flop cards. of this i imagine he calls a donk lead with 77+, A7, K7, Q7s, J7s, 87s, 76s, 75s, 97s, 87o, 76o, AT, KT, QT, JT, T9, T8s, 98s, 98o, 68s, J9, J8s. combos:

A7 (8), K7 (6), Q7s (1), J7s (2), 87s (2), 76s (2), 75s (2), 97s (2), 87o (6), 76o (6), AT (12), KT (9), QT (9), JT (12), T9 (12), T8s (3), 98s (4), 98o (12), 86s (4), J9 (16), J8s (4)

assuming i didn't miss anything: 134 combos he's calling with out of 490 possibles = 134/490 = 27% of his range. i need him to fold a bit less than 40% in order for my flop bet to be +EV in a vacuum. he's folding 73%. ez game. it's quite probably i fucked up some combo counting or adding because it got messy in there. however i think it is hard for someone opening 30-40% and not habitually floating air to continue with more than 60% of his range.