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Cbet #3
this one doesn't appear as obvious a Cbet as the first two. it's quite possibly a bad one given i have little equity when called.
our villain here is 52/7 over 33. note on him reads "limp/call broadway card/xs in EP" (i think he limp called Q2s UTG+1 fwiw). has folded to 100% of cbets thus far (probably only 4 at most)
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($25)
UTG+1 ($22.24)
MP1 ($6.61)
MP2 ($34.32)
Hero (CO) ($28.47)
Button ($19.17)
SB ($20.15)
BB ($10)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 9 , K
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, 2 folds, Hero bets $0.60, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.50
Flop: ($1.51) 6 , 5 , 10 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.10, 1 fold
Total pot: $1.51 | Rake: $0.07
Preflop
i'm discounting JJ+ and the higher Ax hands because, despite being passive, he has raised preflop over this sample (and if he does limp say AA or KK he's likely to be limp/3betting it)
22-99,A2s-ATs,A7-AJo,K2s+,K9o+,Q2s+,Q9o+,J5s+,J9o+,T6s+,T8o+,32s-98s,42s-97s,
22-88 (42), 99 (3), A2s-A8s (28), A9s (3), ATs (4), A7o (12), A8o (12), A9o (9), ATo-AJo (24), K2s-KQs (30), K9o (5), KTo-KQo (18), Q2s-Q8s (28), Q9o (9), QTo-QJo (24), J5s-J8s (12), J9s (3), JTs (4), J9o (9), JTo (12), T6s-T8s (12), T9s (3), T8o (12), T9o (9), 32-87s (24), 98s (3), 42s-86s, 97s (3)
for a total of 357
that was tedious/probably error-laden
Flop
seeing as i should be aware of how often i need my opponent to fold before i make the bet (or should i be determining how often they fold and then decide my betsize?), i'll find my required fold % before i dissect his range.
1.10/(1.10+1.51) = 42%
55 (3), 66 (3), 77-88 (12), 99 (3), A2hh-A5hh (4), A6s (3), A7hh-A9hh (3), ATs (3), ATo (9), K2hh-K5hh (4), K6s (2), K7hh-K9hh (3), KTs (2), KJhh-KQhh (2), KTo (7), Q2hh-Q5hh (4), Q6s (3), Q7hh-Q9hh (3), QJhh (1), QTo (9), J5hh (1), J6s (3), J7hh-J9hh (3), JTo (9), T6s (3), T7s-T8s (6), T9s (2), T8o (9), T9o (7), 32-43s (8), 65s (2), 54hh (1), 76s (3), 87s (4), 98s (3) 42s (4), 53hh (1), 64s (3), 75s (3), 86s (3), 97s (4)
so he's calling with 174 combos and folding 357 - 174 = 183
183/357 = 51%
so my cbet was +EV assuming i didnt miscalculate combos or mess up the math too drastically. being as tired as i am, there's a pretty good chance i did make some errors.
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