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this one is a fold pre. villain is 11/11 over about 70.i tanked for a while and then the BC mantra "getting all-in pre w/KK 100bb deep is never a cooler", coupled with my fishy attachment to having the preflop second nuts, made me shove. i'm going to try do an EV equation on this one because it should be a simple one and learning how to do that kind of stuff is good for someone who wants to learn how to play poker.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($10)
UTG ($10.09)
MP1 ($9.79)
MP2 ($4.69)
Hero (CO) ($10.90)
Button ($7.89)
SB ($11.35)
Preflop: Hero is CO with K , K
UTG bets $0.40, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.40, 1 fold, SB raises to $3.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $10.90 (All-In), SB calls $7.40
Flop: ($22.30) 9, 6 , J (2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: ($22.30) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($22.30) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $22.30 | Rake: $1.11
ok so pot is 0.4 + 1.4 + 3.5 + 0.1 = 5.4.
i'm going to say for fun that his range is KK+,AK. i truly believe it's only KK+, but "wotev"
my immediate "risk" is $10.9 - 1.4 = $9.5 in order to win 5.4 (when he folds)
when i win i get current pot + opponens remaining stack. 5.4 + (10.9 - 3.5) = 12.8
when i lose, i obviously lose $10.9 which, i've established, is how much i'm "risking"
against KK+, AK i have
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.293% 43.79% 03.51% 67479612 5402286.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 52.707% 49.20% 03.51% 75823176 5402286.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
he never folds any of that range so
0 * 5.4 = ldo (he folds)
0.47 * 12.8 = 6.016 (he calls, i win)
0.53 * -10.9 = -5.77 (he calls, i lose)
6.016 - 5.77 = 0.246. super marginally +EV.
now lets see how -EV it really was.
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.618% 15.59% 07.03% 11209632 5056266.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 77.382% 70.35% 07.03% 50594604 5056266.00 { KK+ }
he never folds so yep.
0.22 * 12.8 = 2.816
0.77 * -10.9 = -8.93
2.816 - 8.93 = -6.114. not very pretty.
moral #1 - 11/11's at 10nl aren't 4betting anything but the nuts out of the blinds. especially not this size. if he does 4bet QQ or AK here i think he's more inclined to jam. definitely more so than with AA, which obv. wants to entice me to continue and create an SPR of ~1 if i call, or otherwise get it in pre.
moral #2 - even if they are 4betting the second nuts, getting it in vs that range is giving them a freeroll.
moral #3 - ranges, equity, fold equity, EV equations. i don't think this is a cooler for a player who can hand-read to a degree. granted, no tommy angelo money was exchanged (i'm sure this dude gets it in with KK pre 100% too), but i'd prefer to maximise my EV than say "oh well, he would have lost a stack in my spot. no reciprocal money changed hands"
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