Hand 3
another one i feel i fucked up. i am perhaps trying too hard to deceive villains at my stakes by checking, hoping to induce some value on later streets. however most villains at 10nl are only thinking about the two cards whose underside they can see on their screen anyway. so checking often just allows potential action-killer cards to fall. just a thought. anyway villain is 13/0 over 8 here. again no significant reads due to small sample.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($20.66)
Button ($22.18)
SB ($20.12)
BB ($25)
UTG ($17.58)
UTG+1 ($11.55)
Hero (MP1) ($26.01)
MP2 ($46.08)
MP3 ($48.74)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, A
UTG bets $0.30, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1, 4 folds, SB calls $0.95, 2 folds
Flop: ($2.58) 4, J, 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($2.58) 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.10, SB calls $2.10
River: ($6.78) 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.80, SB calls $4.80
Total pot: $16.38 | Rake: $0.80

Preflop
because i have no reads whatsoever and a small sample of stats, i'll assume this guy is of the TAG variety and probably opens and calls all of 22-QQ, 3 combos of KK, 2 of AA (discounted for 4bet factor),AQs+,AKo UTG.

Flop
should have bet it. leaky leaky. all of 55+ is likely calling and some of it doesn't call a turn bet if a higher card comes. i was happy to aim for two streets here, and while it obviously worked out in the end, i think flop and river is best, or perhaps flop and turn. but checking this flop is a bad mistake imo.

Turn
so the turn is friendly to me once again and doesn't kill any action from 55-TT which is the part of villain's range i want to be value betting against. i'd have preferred something like $2.3 or $2.4 here but given i'm a vbet fish perhaps i should just be grateful for the time being that i didn't check it. i think villain is calling me here with all of 55-TT,QQ, as well as AQcc,AQss,AKcc,AQss. i am discounting all full houses because they typically get bet or check/raised on the turn.


Board: 4s Jc 4c 6s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 95.455% 95.45% 00.00% 1260 0.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 04.545% 04.55% 00.00% 60 0.00 { QQ, TT-77, AcKc, AcQc, AcKs, AcQs }

even if he does have full houses and quads still in his range, there are only 7 possible combinations, and even if i give him them all:


Board: 4s Jc 4c 6s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.133% 78.13% 00.00% 1272 0.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 21.867% 21.87% 00.00% 356 0.00 { QQ-66, 44, AcKc, AcQc, AcKs, AcQs }

there's too few of them compared to middle pairs to change the equities dramatically.

River
because i happened to check the flop here, i actually think he will be check/calling with a lot, if not all, of 77-TT and QQ, and either leading or checkraising all his full houses and flushes (under this assumption i'm obviously bet/folding). i think he is very rarely, if ever, bluffing me on this river if he shows any aggression. so i have a clear vbet:


Board: 4s Jc 4c 6s 2c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 81.081% 81.08% 00.00% 30 0.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 18.919% 18.92% 00.00% 7 0.00 { QQ-66, 44, AcKc, AcQc, AcKs, AcQs }