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even though i haven't got my 10 vbet examples posted, i'm moving on to this weeks assignment - analysing 4 cbets, 2 3-bet bluffs, and 4 other bluffs of my choice. i'll start with the cbets.
C-bet #1
i'll start with an easy one.
villain is 22/10/6.3 (3bet) over 196
for some reason i didnt copy down his fold to cbet stat which is kind of retarded but given most of my play is against relatively unknowns i'll assume (like most 10nlers) he folds to 60-70% of cbets and doesn't float habitually.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($9.97)
UTG ($40.46)
UTG+1 ($10.48)
MP1 ($25.38)
MP2 ($9.55)
Hero (CO) ($25)
Button ($27.13)
SB ($9.20)
Preflop: Hero is CO with K , Q
4 folds, Hero bets $0.40, Button calls $0.40, 2 folds
Flop: ($1.11) J, 9, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, Button calls $0.80
Turn: ($2.71) J (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks
River: ($2.71) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.30, Button raises to $8, Hero calls $5.70
Total pot: $18.71 | Rake: $0.92
Preflop
22-JJ,A8s-AQs,AT-AQo,KTs+,KJo,Q9s+,QJo,JTs,JTo, 43s-T9s,75s-T8s
broken down into combinations:
22-JJ (60), A8s-AJs (16), AQs (3), ATo (12), AJo (12), AQo (9), KTs (3), KJs (3), KQs (2), KTo (9), KJo (9), KQo (7), Q9s-QJs (12), QJo (9), JTs (4), JTo (12), 43-T9s (32), 75s-T8s (16)
for a total of 221 combinations.
(edited after i found i had missed the "0" and said 22-JJ has only 6 total combinations)
Flop
i imagine my flop cbet would be profitable against this range in a vacuum, without the equity derived from my gutterball and two overcards (at least one of which has to be a clean pair out against what i'll assume his calling range is). i'll say he calls with all hands stronger than middle pair, all 4+ out draws. calling range:
33 (3), 99 (3), JJ (3), A9s (3), AJs (3), AJo (9), KTs (3), KJs (2), KQs (2), KJo (7), KQo (7), Q9s (2), QTs (3), QJo (6), JTs (3), JTo (9), 98s (3), T9s (3), T8s (4), 97s (3), 87s (4)
this comes to 85 combinations he is calling with. 221-85=136 combos he is folding. 136/221 = 61% percent of his range will be folded. based on my betsizing, i need him to fold 0.8 / 1.91 = 42% of his range to my flop cbet in order for it to be profitable in a vacuum. as he is folding 61% of his range on the flop, my cbet is +EV in a vacuum.
might as well keep analysing just for kicks.
(note: i decided to double check my work thus far and found some pretty big errors in the preflop and flop range analysis. these most likely carried over to my analysis of later streets, however i can't be bothered proof reading/editing them because the purpose of this exercise is to study cbets)
Turn
when he checks back here i am inclined to discount all Jx hands from his range and all sets. this is important for how the river happened to play out.
River
my lead is obviously for value because my line looks FOS (ie i'm repping a strong range but few strong hands make sense when i check the turn) and is likely to get looked up by any Tx hands which were drawing to a straight, and perhaps some 9x as a result. when he raises i had to tank for a bit - i doubt he's ever bluffing here, but he has taken a very strange line for him to ever have a full house on this river. he definitely has the two straights in his range - of which i have the better one (and blockers to him having the same hand). i'll see how often he has to have checked back Jx or a set on the turn in order for this to be a fold (i'm assuming it's a pretty easy call as is)
i have to call 5.70 more into a total pot of 13, so i'm getting about 2.3:1. translating to roughly 30% equity.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
20 games 0.030 secs 666 games/sec
Board: Jh 9s 3c Jc Th
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.500% 20.00% 22.50% 4 4.50 { KsQh }
Hand 1: 57.500% 35.00% 22.50% 7 4.50 { 99, 33, KQs, J9s, 87s, KQo }
far easier call than i thought at the time. calling becomes even more fun if he has some Jx hands in his range which dont have me beat ie JQ,JK etc.
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