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Cbet #2
SB is 12/6/0 over 200ish
fold SB to steal = 86% of 7
fold BB to steal = 70% of 10
again i forgot to record his fold to cbet business but i'm pretty sure it's high, like 70-80%, and this kind of high Fold to CB frequency is typical of these 12/6's at my stakes so i'll say he folds to cbet 75%
i didnt record the stats of any of the limpers either. i'm just going to pretend im heads up with the SB for ease of analysis.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($10.38)
BB ($25.84)
UTG ($27.78)
UTG+1 ($11.68)
MP1 ($21.34)
MP2 ($11.52)
CO ($10.32)
Hero (Button) ($25.08)
Preflop: Hero is Button with Q , K
UTG calls $0.10, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.10, 1 fold, CO (poster) checks, Hero bets $0.80, SB calls $0.75, 2 folds, MP1 calls $0.70, 1 fold
Flop: ($2.86) 3 , J, 10 (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $1.80, SB calls $1.80, 1 fold
Turn: ($6.46) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
River: ($6.46) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $4, Hero folds
Total pot: $6.46 | Rake: $0.31
Preflop
22-JJ,ATs+,ATo+,KJs+,KQo
22-JJ (60), ATs (4), AJs (4), AQs (3), AKs (3), ATo (12), AJo (12), AQo (9), AKo (9), KJs (3), KQs (2), KQo (7)
total of 128 combinations.
Flop (call)
33 (3), TT (3), JJ (3), ATs (3), AJs (3), AQs (3), AKs (3) ATo (9), AJo (9), AQo (9), AKo (9), KJs (2), KQs (2), KQo (7)
so he's calling with 68 combinations
meaning he's folding 127 - 68 = 59 or
59/127 = 46% of his range
i need him to fold 1.8 / (1.8 + 2.86) = 38% of his range in a vacuum based on my betsizing.
so my cbet is +EV in a vacuum, disregarding that i have 6 nut outs and potentially 14 outs to the best hand on the turn.
Turn
i check here because this card does not improve my perceived range and i don't think he called the flop with any pair hands that fold to another bet on this turn card. i perhaps could have bet here given i have decent equity when called and he might fold SOME hands that beat me ie ATs and the ace-high gutterballs, but my results-oriented instinct said not to bet any air here on this board vs a nitty range, and to take a free card with anywhere between 6 and 14 outs to the best hand.
River
even if he thinks he's bluffing here, with say AcQc, i don't really beat any of his range what so ever so i feel it's an easy fold.
this one took surprisingly less time than typical for me. maybe because villain's range was smaller and easier to deal with, or maybe i've made a million mistakes or missed a couple of steps. maybe i'm actually improving. i'll review later and edit any errors i may find.
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