3bet #1

villain is 20/14/7 (3bet) over 600. his ATS is 43. obviously his fold to 3bet stat (to a degree) and his c/r flop, fold to cbet etc stats would be helpful but i'm a fish so i dont have them. note to self: record them with the HH's i future. ok.

although Q9s isn't the best hand choice to 3bet "bluff" this guy, i don't think it's terrible because it plays decently postflop and is well disguised etc etc. however there may be a valid argument for not 3betting hands that his calling range can dominate ie AQ KQ etc, but i haven't even determined his calling range yet so i'll hopefully soon find out.

to be honest i think i could have 72o here and show a profit in a vacuum by 3betting pre and cbetting most flops. i also used his fold to cbet stat to guide my decisions here but for some reason didn't copy it into notepad with the HH. i'll arbitrarily say it's 60%.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP1 ($12.49)
MP2 ($25)
MP3 ($14.69)
Hero (CO) ($25.19)
Button ($7.38)
SB ($29.59)
BB ($28.06)
UTG ($25.27)
UTG+1 ($17.19)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 9, Q
3 folds, MP2 bets $0.40, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.40, 4 folds
Total pot: $1.13 | Rake: $0

Preflop
i imagine this guy is opening reasonably wide here, by 10nl standards at least. i'll say
22+, A8s+, A9o+, K9s+, KTo+, Q9s+, QTo+, J8s+, JTo.
he may be more inclined to open say 43s-T9s then some of the more marginal holdings in that range but whatever.

so we have:
22-88 (42), 99 (3), TT-JJ (12), QQ (3), KK+ (12), A8s (4), A9s (3), ATs-AJs (8), AQs (3), AKs (4), A9o (9), ATo-AJo (24), AQo (9), AKo (12), K9s (3), KTs-KJs (8), KQs (3), KTo-KJo (24), KQo (9), Q9s (3), QTs-QJs (6), QTo-QJo (18), J8s (4), J9s (3), JTs (4), JTo (12)

245 combos.

i need him to fold 1.4/(1.4+0.73) = 65%. i should not here that this table has antes which the HH doesn't clearly illustrate unless you count the total pot.

as i mentioned, i'm pretty new to 3bet bluffing so i'm not really sure of what i can expect villain's to be calling 3bets with, especially as we are 250bb deep. however, of this range i'll say he continues with (either call or 4bet):
22+, AJs+, AQo+, KQs, KQo, QJs, JTs

which comes to:
22-88 (42), 99 (3), TT-JJ (12), QQ (3), KK+ (12), AJs (8), AQs (3), AKs (4), AQo (9), AKo (12), KQs (3), KQo (9), QJs (3), JTs (4)

for a total of 127 combos. meaning he folds 245 - 127 = 118 or
118/245= 48% of his opening range. as i need him to fold 65%, my 3bet is not +EV in a preflop vacuum, however this doesn't calculate my postflop equity, or the fact that i can cbet air and get him to fold a lot of low pairs etc etc. i'm not sure if it matters this early in the hand, but i have


Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.417% 61.87% 00.55% 130303950 1155235.50 { 22+, AJs+, KQs, QJs, JTs, AQo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 37.583% 37.03% 00.55% 77998971 1155235.50 { Qs9s }

37% equity against his continuing range, plus i gain pretend money FTOP-wise when i cbet AJ3 and get him to fold 22,44-TT or whatever, which is technically "correct" in calling in sklansky-land.