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General bluff #1
villain is 11/9/2.7 (3b) over 322
31% ATS, 56% flop cbet, 2/3 turn cbets
so he's what we generalisers like to call a "nitty-TAG"
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG+1 ($12.09)
MP1 ($4.80)
MP2 ($9.54)
CO ($10.05)
Hero (Button) ($13.05)
SB ($10)
BB ($14.72)
UTG ($8.05)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 5 , 5
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, CO bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.30
Flop: ($1.35) 3 , 8, 2 (3 players)
MP2 checks, CO bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60, 1 fold
Turn: ($2.55) Q (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $1.80, CO calls $1.80
River: ($6.15) J (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3.90, 1 fold
Total pot: $6.15 | Rake: $0.30
Preflop
i suspect he's opening reasonably wide here because he knows how to steal blinds to a degree, and he probably sees me as the 18/15 i am (ie not a 50/3) so i'm not going to be giving him TOO much grief (until i get some more study/practice in 3betting/3bet pots  )
Range:
22+,A2s+A7o+,K6s,+K9o+,Q8s+,Q9o+,J8s+,J8o+,T7s+,T8 o+,43s-98s, 64s-97s
i checked that in stove for a bit of actual range size/HUD%stat perspective and it came to 35% so i may be giving him a bit too much credit for stealing blinds but that's roughly the range i'd give him in the play of the hand so i'll stick with it. combos:
22-44 (18), 55 (3), 66-AA (54), A2s-A4s (4), A5s (2), A6s-AKs (32), A7o+ (84), K6s+ (32), K9o+ (48), Q8s+ (16), Q9o+ (36), J8s+ (12), J8o+ (36), T7s+ (12), T8o+ (24), 43s-98s (24), 64s-97s (16)
coming to 453 combinations.
i'm obviously flatting for set-value as well as to steal some pots from him postflop using my power of position and incredible hand-reading skills (pffft)
Flop
given this guy is a 11/9, i assumed he knows remotely how to value bet, and given his flop cbet sizing (pretty terrible if his particular holding is strong ie JJ+ or AsKs, whatever), i think he's cbetting a decent amount of air from his preflop range. that said, i have no idea how much he knows about good board textures to cbet vs certain ranges, how having more than 1 opponent effects cbet strategy etc. so most of this is highly speculative. 'im going to say that he cbets all 4+ out draws, sets, missed overcards, overpairs and top pair hands. this may be hugely unrealistic but i'm just doing it to get a feel for range sizes/weakness/strength over streets etc, not treating it as a soul-read of some faceless dude's cbet range who i've played 300 hands against.
22 (3), 33 (3), 99 (3), A4s (4), A5s (3), A8s (3), A9s+ (20), A8o (9), A9o+ (60), K8s (3), K9s+ (16), K9o+ (48), Q8s (3), Q9s+ (12), Q9o+ (36), J8s (3), J9s+ (8), J8o (9), J9o+ (24), T8s (3), T9s (4), T8o (8), T9o (12), 45s (3), 65s (3), 64s (4)
coming to 307 combos, or 307/453 = 67% of his preflop range.
Turn
i feel this is a good card for my range for a couple of reasons:
- i didn't raise the flop so i don't often have sets
- i therefore definitely have flush draws in my range on the flop
- if i bet and he calls, his range is largely Asx Ksx 99-JJ hands which i can fold out on a lot of river cards. his line makes little sense for a nut hand such as a flopped set (note shitty size cbet on flush draw board) or turned flush (more likely to lead? C/R?)
ok so he checks. i've seen some really weak/tight play at 10nl lately but i'm going to assume he leads all sets and flushes here because he an 11/9 (actually a 10/9 in my db now). he's so tight he hasn't played a hand since 'nam and now he has one he needs to get paid.
so check/calling range:
As8x (3), As9x (4), AsTx (4), AsJx (4), AQ (12), AsKx (4), Ks9x (4), KsTx (4) KsJx (4), KQ (12), 99, TT, JJ
i'm inclined to discount all AQ and KQ hands, because i think he leads them some of the time, particularly the Asqx and KsQx but i'll leave them in due to this all being speculation/me pasting my tendencies onto a relatively unknown player
River
so a good card falls (which is almost any card except and ace or a spade i think) and i decide to follow through with the plan, feeling like there is no need to bet close to pot because if he ever has TPTK here, he's not folding. i'm looking to fold out 99,TT,A8, and perhaps even AsJx. there could perhaps be an argument for checking back here with SD value. i'll divide his turn range into hands that beat me on the river and hands that don't and determine what i think he calls/folds
beats me:
As8x (3), folds
AsJx (4), folds
AQ (12), calls
KQ (12) calls
KsJx(3) folds
99 (6) folds
TT (6) folds
JJ (3) calls
22 fold, 27 call
i beat:
As9x (4),
AsTx (4),
AsKx (4),
Ks9x (4),
KsTx (4),
20 fold
69 combos, 27 are calling. 42 are folding. 42/67 = 62% of the time he folds. i need him to fold 3.9/(3.9+6.15) = 38% so my river bluff was +EV in a vacuum based on the above ranges. which are hugely questionable. i obviously didn't go into near this much quantification in the hand, i just felt like his river was going to have >50% hands that wouldn't call a bet on a non-spade or ace river due to all the Asx hands and 99-JJ 8x etc.
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