been far too busy with school work lately for any poker study or grind. that is my own fault because i let myself get so behind but whatever.

Bluff # can't remember. been too long

villain is a complete unknown as far as the notes i saved go. i'm guessing he posted in the CO and then played this hand because i would have recorded the info with the HH if i had any. basically another spot where i decided to flat a blind-steal OOP because
- he has worse K's in his range
- he has worse J's in his range
- i'm a donk and so like to give myself opportunities to donk-bet

basically i felt like this missed so much of a standard BU opening range, and i can fold out some of 22-66 and Ax which is correct in calling according to mr sklanksy.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP2 ($23.75)
CO ($26.79)
Button ($25)
SB ($19.35)
Hero (BB) ($25)
UTG ($24.10)
UTG+1 ($21.27)
MP1 ($53.44)
Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, K
5 folds, Button bets $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50
Flop: ($1.60) 7, 7, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $1, 1 fold
Total pot: $1.60 | Rake: $0.08

Preflop
complete unknown but his sizing may be an indicator that he knows a bit about stealing blinds (ie its small so he can do it with a wider range). i'm going to go ahead and assume he's somewhere between 10/8 and 16/12 which is where a huge % of the 25nlers i've encountered seem to fall. these guys typically ATS between 30 and 40%.

Range:
22+,A2s+,A2o+,K5s+,K9o+,Q7s+,Q8o+,J7s+,J8o+,43s-T9s,43o-T9o,64s-T8s

Flop

full range on flop w/blockers:

22-66 (30), 77 (1), 88-99 (12), TT (3), JJ(6), QQ-KK (6), AA (6), A2s- A6s (20), A7s (2), A8s-A9s (8), ATs (3), AJs (4), AQs-AKs (6), A2o-A6o (60), A7o (6), A8o-A9o (24), ATo (9), AJo (12), AQo-AKo (18), K5s-K6s 6), K7s (2), K8s-K9s (6), KTs (2), KJs (3), KQs (2), K9o (9), KTo (7), KJo (9), KQo (7), Q7s (1), Q8s-Q9s (6), QTs (2), QJs (3), Q8o-Q9o (18), QTo (7), QJo (9), J7s (2), J8s-J9s (8), JTs (3), J8o-J9o (24), JTo (9), 43s-65s (12), 76s (2), 87s (2), 98s (4), T9s (3), 43o-65o (36), 76o (7), 78o (7), 98o (12), T9o (9), 64s (4), 75s (2), 86s (4), 97s (2), T8s (3)

goddamn factoring in blockers. 490 combos. his preflop range is obviously the same as that plus the potential combos which became blocked by the flop cards. of this i imagine he calls a donk lead with 77+, A7, K7, Q7s, J7s, 87s, 76s, 75s, 97s, 87o, 76o, AT, KT, QT, JT, T9, T8s, 98s, 98o, 68s, J9, J8s. combos:

A7 (8), K7 (6), Q7s (1), J7s (2), 87s (2), 76s (2), 75s (2), 97s (2), 87o (6), 76o (6), AT (12), KT (9), QT (9), JT (12), T9 (12), T8s (3), 98s (4), 98o (12), 86s (4), J9 (16), J8s (4)

assuming i didn't miss anything: 134 combos he's calling with out of 490 possibles = 134/490 = 27% of his range. i need him to fold a bit less than 40% in order for my flop bet to be +EV in a vacuum. he's folding 73%. ez game. it's quite probably i fucked up some combo counting or adding because it got messy in there. however i think it is hard for someone opening 30-40% and not habitually floating air to continue with more than 60% of his range.