Double Barrel Spot #1

villain is 16/10 over about 100 and has folded to 2/3 cbets over this sample.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (MP3) ($10)
CO ($14.01)
Button ($9.52)
SB ($13.18)
BB ($10.15)
UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($6.99)
MP1 ($22.32)
MP2 ($7.32)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, 7
4 folds, Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, Button calls $0.30, 2 folds
Flop: ($0.75) 3, 10, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, Button calls $0.50
Turn: ($1.75) K (2 players)
Hero bets $1.20, 1 fold
Total pot: $1.75 | Rake: $0.08

Preflop Range
22-QQ (63), A8s+ (27), ATo+ (48), KTs+ (8), KQ (16), QTs+ (8), QJo (12), JTs-43s (32)

total of 224

Flop Range
55-99 (30), TT (1), JJ (6), QQ (6), AT (6), KT (8), QTs (2), KTs (2), JTs (2), T9s (2)

65 combos, so he was calling 63/224 = 29% and therefolding folding 71%, making my cbet fine in a vacuum. so he called, and i decided that he had many combinations of middle pairs in his continuing range on the flop. even though i had very little equity when called on the turn, i felt this card sucked for enough of his range for double barreling to be +EV. i'm not so sure about that now.

Turn
TT (1), AT (6), KT (6), QTs (2), JTs (2), T9s (2), QQ (6)

total of 25 combos, which is 25/65=38% of his flop continuing range that he calls a turn bet with (folding 62%)

i bet 1.2 to win 1.7, meaning i needed him to fold 1.2/(1.2+1.7) = 42% of the time, which he wasn't. so it wasn't +EV in a vacuum.

however if he peels the flop with all pairs 22-QQ, or if i had AJ, AQ or any two spades, this would mean i have more fold equity/pot equity, respectively, on the turn card, and could possibly make up the EV needed to make barreling +EV.