operation: same as everyone else

Originally Posted by rpm

i imagine he's calling the flop with all of 44-QQ (51 combos by my quick mental calculation, possibly wrong). i need him to fold 40% of the time for my turn bet to be breakeven in a vacuum. assuming he folds all of 44-JJ (48 combos) on the turn, he needs to have roughly 70 or more combos of Ax in his range for it to be -EV in a vacuum. factoring in blockers, in terms of Ax hands, thats something like A9+ (Ak,AJ,AQ have 12 each, coming to 36, AT and A9 have 16 each, coming to 68 total), however i imagine he 3bets AK pre, so perhaps as low as A8+. i'm guessing that A8 is close to the bottom of his Ax range that he calls with pre.
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ignore this, his continuing range on the turn is never ONLY Ax hands so it's inaccurate. though i think it's good to calculate stuff like that to get a feel for how certain ranges are weighted.