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 Originally Posted by rpm
some things that came to mind reading your post. no hate intended.
bold number 1 - you later said "i like the barrel"
bold number 2 - agreed
bold number 3 - very few, if any, imo
bold number 4 - i doubt he ever C/C's even KQ high here. if he is floating missed broadways OOP on an ace high board, i imagine it'd be very few
bold number 5 - i like your thinking, me too.
i sorted out the original HH with range analysis, let me know where you would include/exclude different holdings at different stages of the hand.
with your opening range id probably throw in more Ax cause fish really value Ax hands, even if that means dropping some SC's from his range.
bold no1 - lol i liked it cause the turn card that came but i just meant that generally an Ace high board vs a 25/15 is not a good spot to be barrelling (obv a great spot to be cbetting but once im called im probably shutting down as far as bluffing goes, if you want to try and get 2 streets from his flush draws and he shuts down on the river and doesnt bluff when he misses, so you can win with ur K-high then thats good too)
bold no 3-
I agree very few 3's, id probably limit it to A3 (although you dont have that in his range so i guess going by ur range only 43 (even less 3's obv))
bold no 4- yea i agree, i just figured that with a double barrell you wanted to illustrate him folding a lot of combos and i wanted to make the point that even if he was floating you with missed overs then this card likely wont deter him from calling again. (pretty pointless on my part sorry)
as for your statement about him raising or w/e...if we do this as a pure bluff (which you even said it is still EV+ disregarding our 24%equity), then it doesnt matter if he calls or raises because we are assuming we lose once he continues DUCY?
also if you throw in a lot more Ax hands into his range this quickly becomes a spot where you are very dependent on your fat chunk of equity.
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