our villain here is 16/8/4.9 (3b) over 1.4k
semi-positionally aware with an ATS of 18%.
he c-bets only 53%, folds to cbet 61%
cbets 56% of turns and folds to 67% of cbets


it was his low cbet that made me interested because him doing an action as commonplace as c-betting at microstakes far less frequently than most must indicate that he has a strong range when he does so. so i hit up the database.

of the 19 hands where he raised preflop and checked the flop, he went to showdown 12 times (thus i can see his hand in HEM) of these 12 times he had:

missed broadways 9 times
1 gutterball + two overs (KQ on J9x in position)
1 middle pocket pair (88 on 3QJ, pretty standard check imo)
and a weird AA on 426 vs an utter fish that really was an ldo bet/bet/bet

the 7 other times in which he opened pre and checked the flop had the following boards:

AQ6r
286tt
552r
AK8tt
2K6r
AT8tt
4AQtt

some of which are decent boards to cbet with a lot of his opening range, which i'll assume is something like 22+,AJs+,KQ+.

of the 23 hands where he raised pre and bet flop, 11 went to the turn. of these he 11, he showed further aggression (bet, raise, or C/R) 7 times. one of the 4 times that he did raise pre/bet flop/check turn, he had aces on 24569 and attempted to vbet the river.

so what can i make of all this? i think it is fair to say that this guy's flop c-betting range is likely to be very strong. i obviously don't get to see his hole cards in all of them, but his small cbet %, and the fact that i have seen him check hands like KQ on 9Jx in position leads me to believe that he may only be c-betting hands stronger than top pair, and perhaps 8+ out draws (no record that he either bets or checks these). thus, the converse of this is true. when he checks he typically has middlish pairs (with at least an overcard on the board), bricked broadway hands, or weak draws. to exploit this i could begin calling his preflop raises lighter in position, best hands to start loosening up with would probably be suited aces, or suited connectors - hands which can flop me some equity for when he does have a hand and cbets, or when he check calls. this guy is also probably quite vulnerable to me firing two barrels on certain boards, because the weakness of his flop checking range likely carries over to later streets.

ok so i just realised that setting the filter to "raise preflop" and "check flop" only includes the times he checks AND his opponent checks. i assumed it was any hand in which he raised preflop and checked the flop. however the filter i was using did not include times he c/f'd, c/c'd, or c/r'd and as such may be a distorted picture of this guy's playing tendencies.