15/11/3.5 3bet over 2.2k.

folds SB 96%, folds BB 88%, rarely flats out of the blinds.
steals are 44% from CO, 59% from BU, and 80% from SB

postflop he cbets 81% of flops (100% in 3bet ones)
folds to CB 81%.

so far we can see he's basically a standard TAGgish kind of player who plays pretty straightforward - tight/aggressive preflop, folding to lots of cbets, cbetting lots of folders etc etc

81% is a shitload of flops to be cbetting. which means he's doing it with a weaker range. his turn cbet stat is only 37% which says two things:
- confirms above hypothesis about weak range on the turn when he raises pre and cbets flop
- that he seems to get "back in line" to a large degree on the turn.

master logician!

taking a look at hands where he raised pre, cbet flop, checked turn, it becomes apparent that this guy makes some weird cbets, the kind of ones where "nothing worse calls, nothing better folds", hands like

TT on A94tt
88 on Q4Kr
88 on J7Att
TT on J95tt

this guy's quite probably better than me at poker, so i may be wrong here. but these seem like pretty meh cbet spots. regardless, his range is far weaker than most people's when he cbets, and that's exploitable (his fold Cbet to raise stat is 56% out of 9 opportunities)

so what can i do to get my money printing machine working vs this guy?

his range is very weak when he cbets. because of it's size, it is probably weak in terms of both pot equity, and vulnerability to aggression (fold equity)

so as an adjustment to this, i want to be aggressive with a weak range against his flop cbet range:
- semi-bluff more flops with flush draws, open enders, and gutters
- raise more air with blockers (ie AK on Q83 type boards)/backdoor draws.
- consider taking some nut hands out of my flop raising range (i would only do this on the driest of boards, ie JJ on J52r)

so if i want to be aggressive with my weak range. i'm definitely going to be flatting all top pairs and some middlish pairs depending on the board texture. because he's cbetting with a lot worse, and rarely getting aggro on the turn or river without some idea that he's "value betting".

pity i don't play with these guys any more. hopefully soon i'll have a decent sample on some of 25nl buddies and be able to set up my 25nl money-printing machine.