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our friend here is 17/9 over 46 but his stats were a bit nittier when we played this. pretty sure he was 11/7. i'm posting this because it was a tilty call and anyone who sees it should tell me i suck and that i'm a pussy calling-station.
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($15.12)
SB ($54.92)
BB ($20.43)
UTG ($31.97)
UTG+1 ($40.54)
MP1 ($17)
Hero (MP2) ($25)
MP3 ($23.62)
CO ($10.38)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K , K
UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero bets $1, 4 folds, BB raises $2.25, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50
Flop: ($5.35) 8, 3 , 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($5.35) 9 (2 players)
BB bets $3, Hero calls $3
River: ($11.35) Q (2 players)
BB bets $5, Hero calls $5
Total pot: $21.35
preflop
this guy's range is so thin i have almost no excuse not to play perfectly against it
QQ+,AK. he may have some combos of JJ in there and he may not have some combos of QQ. no real read as regards preflop 3betting. but he is a nit. so yep
quick combo count
beats me:
AA (6)
i beat:
QQ (6)
i have probably ~65% against:
AK (8)
(edit: just stoved it and AA has 70% vs AK)
there may an argument for jamming but tbh i felt like i would have been getting it in vs KK+, and i had position in a 3bet pot versus a very small range and an opponent likely to play very straighforward. so i decided to flat.
flop
he checks which perhaps weights his range towards AK a bit, but i'm unsure of that. i decide to check back because, assuming he folds all AK's, i'm value bettnig into QQ+ against which i have 50%. however if he 3bets QQ pre at a lower frequency than AA (even 5 combos of QQ to 6 of AA) then i have <50% equity and checking has a higher EV than betting. this seems standard but correct me if i'm wrong. also i don't want to fold out AK because i might be able to get a bluff lead from it on the turn.
turn
the card itself doesn't change our ranges/equity much at all. he leads, and i decide to flat because raising puts me up against AA almost all the time. and i hoped my flop check might have induced a bet like this from AK on the turn.
river
when he leads here, i'm fucked. i just tilted, checked my pot odds and then fuckyou-called him down. the only hands in his preflop range i now beat are AK. and he's not leading the turn AND river with AK very much if at all. just to show myself how much these tilty calls are costing me i'm going to look at my equity versus some different ranges.
so he bets with a range, and i have to have the best hand against that range roughly 23-24% of the time.
this is what i think his actual range is:
Board: 8s 3h 5c 9c Qc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 05.000% 00.00% 05.00% 0 0.50 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 95.000% 90.00% 05.00% 9 0.50 { QQ+ }
now i'll incrementally add in AK combos (the only hands in his preflop range that i now beat)
Board: 8s 3h 5c 9c Qc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 13.636% 09.09% 04.55% 1 0.50 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 86.364% 81.82% 04.55% 9 0.50 { QQ+, AhKh }
Board: 8s 3h 5c 9c Qc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.833% 16.67% 04.17% 2 0.50 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 79.167% 75.00% 04.17% 9 0.50 { QQ+, AdKd, AhKh }
Board: 8s 3h 5c 9c Qc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.923% 23.08% 03.85% 3 0.50 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 73.077% 69.23% 03.85% 9 0.50 { QQ+, AdKd, AhKh, AhKd
so it takes three combos of bricked AK's to tip the range scales far enough to give me 25% equity to make this a call. makes sense. 9 combos i lose to (AA,QQ), means i need to beat 3 (hence i was getting 3:1). thats actually so simple and logical i'm kind of ashamed i didn't know how to work that out before this and had to post this hand up. i should definitely be able to do this kind of math at the table. seems i need some more work on weighting ranges in my head. anyway, back to exam studyland with me.
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