so i just re-read blind-stealing 101 and 102 in an attempt to better understand the dynamics of exploitative play in/vs the blinds. i decided that perhaps the best thing to do would be to just use some opponents from my database, make up hypothetical scenarios to do with blind play, and then toy with ranges and try to figure out how i should be playing mine based on how they play theirs. just for kicks i'm going to pretend i'm in the blinds reacting against a 3x steal from myself (or some clone who has all the same tendencies). maybe using my own play as the focus will highligh some leaks. i'm going to only use stats for my last 10k hands because there won't be much deep-stacked play in there to skew my stats.
16/13/2.6 (3bet)
ATS = 34%
CO = 26%
BU = 41%
SB = 40%
vs steal SB BB
Fold 94% 88%
Call 3% 4%
3Bet 3% 8%
so clearly i am super-exploitable in the blinds for anyone with a hud and half a brain.
0.94 * 0.88 = 82% of the time i fold my blinds to a steal
so if i saw a person with my stats in the blinds, i'd realise that i can raise a very wide and weak range as a blind-steal because they fold so often that the preflop raise is +EV in a vacuum. probably a range of something like:
22+,A2s+,A2o+,K4s+,K8o+,Q6s+,Q9o+,J7s+,J9o+,T7s+,T 8o+ as well as 98s-43s, 97s-53s, 98o-43o, 97o-86o
or roughly 48.5% of total hands.
(note to whoever may read this, the hero from now on is in the blinds, and facing a robot opponent who just opened with a range of 48.5%, which subdivides as i say it does)
so obviously "he" can't continue with very much of that range to a 3bet, which would be the first range i'd construct in my head being in the blinds facing a guy who is stealing 48.5%
how could i adjust my blind play against a very large, weak stealing range?
just because my opponents range is weak, i'm still going to 3betting value hands because he does have a hand SOMEtimes, and also i don't want my 3b range to be purely air because then it kind of sucks every time i get called.
i think i'd probably 3bet a range of something like JJ+,AK for value expecting to be flatted by (this isn't necessarily MY actual range but a caricature positionally aware 25nler opening 48.5%) something like 66-QQ,AQs,AKo and be 4bet by KK+ almost exclusively
(this range which continues, either calling or raising, to the 3bet is 5.6% of hands, so very roughly 1/9th of the opening range, meaning he continues to the BB 3bet roughly 10% of the time)
so what other hands would be the best candidates to begin including in my 3bet range as bluffs to exploit my opponents weakness?
i'm not really sure of this but i'm guessing two factors will be significant - pot equity and fold equity. so obviously aces are the most predominantly featured card in my opponents calling range, so having an ace in my hand increases my fold equity against 66+,AQs+,AKo and is my best blocker, followed by Kings. and the Ax hands with the most equity against that calling range are, intuitively, the suited ones!
so my first adjustment would probably be to include A2s-A6s. because there are only 4 combos each of these babies, my 3bet range is still going to be very small and i imagine i could go much further against an opponent who folds to 3bets 90% of the time before it becomes obvious i'm 3betting the shit out of them and forcing them to adjust (at the moment i'm 3betting roughly 5.7% of hands)
oh by the way, my current 3bet range has 49% equity against my opponents flatting range. given i have 90% fold equity, i think i have some more room to maneuvre.
so what hands next? i'm thinking Kxs, or perhaps 22-66 or suited connectors would be best. i'll consult stove.
in terms of actual pot equity against 66+,AQs+,AKo it seems that trashy suited kings, low pairs 22-66 and middlish SC's all have similar equity of between 27 and 30%. seeing as Kxs gives me more fold equity than 22-66, i think they would probably be the next best choice to include in a 3bet bluff range:
thus far we're at
JJ+,AK,A2s-A6s,K2s-K5s and are still only 3betting 6% of my range, which is tiny and may be able to be expanded upon still, though i still haven't dealt with a calling range yet. and i imagine i could be flatting a lot of hands profitably - suited broadways and middle pairs 77-QQ because my opponents range has so many dominated hands in it.
my 3bet range is currently weighted
JJ+,AK = 40 value combos
As2s-A6s, K2s-K5s = 36 bluff combos.
I'll leave there and now look at my calling range:
basically as best i understand it this range is hands that can certainly cold-call profitably versus opponent's range, but are not strong enough to 3bet for value.
so against that range i guess i could flat 88+,A9s+,ATo+,KTs+,KJo+,Q9s+,QJo,K9s,JTo,T9s-65s.
most of these hands are "top pair" type hands whose kickers i feel are strong enough to flat with OOP. and some SC hands which can flop some equity to semi-bluff flops with or whatever.
this 3bet and flatting range combined is 18.1%, so i'm folding 100 - 18.1 = 81.9%. hmm i'm probably still being very exploited. i'm starting to think including 22-66 in 3bet range as bluffs could be an idea, as they are too weak and vulnerable to flops to just flat, and because my opponents range is so wide there is little implied odds to use them to setmine. hmm.
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