Operation Winning is a Habit

The more I think about All-in EV the more I realize how useless it is. If we were to measure luck as a whole and then figure out how much of it comes down to AIEV, we'd come up with less than 10%. HEM doesn't even measure the money put in on streets before we shove afaik.

I remember I read your posts thinking "what- why in hell does this guy play 10NL!!" I did not say anything because I did not want you to start playing beyond your bankroll.

Great posts, great accomplishments- all my kudos to you. Your journey through the stakes is very similar to mine- up, up and up! The confidence you have amassed shines through in your posts and that is excellent!

Keep it you cocky bastard

Originally Posted by iopq

amirite

no

Originally Posted by dev

The more I think about All-in EV the more I realize how useless it is. If we were to measure luck as a whole and then figure out how much of it comes down to AIEV, we'd come up with less than 10%. HEM doesn't even measure the money put in on streets before we shove afaik.

True, I get that part, and I'm winning like $150 in a session, but still have lost 4 out of 5 all-in coin flips.

And I also understand IOPQ's point about how it's easy to focus on 1 part of poker luck / variance and disregard every other facet. I've played 20k hands at an 8 ptbb/100 win rate at 50nl FR. They suck. They're weak tight, and the furnace of 100nl has my game pretty well used to thin value for big money. They're nut-camping nits. They hate getting squeezed. At 100nl, some squeezes like every other orbit. They don't 3bet much.

So I really have no clue even after 20k hands how much is luck, how much is the fact that they don't have reads, how much is the fact they're TAGG-nits while I'm TAGG-super-agro, and how much is the fact that they just suck.

I'm just happy to be winning big right now: positive variance, them sucking or whatever it is.

nice goals.

Originally Posted by Robb

Time for a couple confessions.
1. I've been playing FR.
2. I've been mass multitabling.
3. I can't beat 100nl FR without dropping a bunch of tables

woot! but you missed out one part of the confession, but your secret is safe (i won't post any hand histories )

Originally Posted by Robb

What I've found is that I can autopilot 50nl FR.

every 100nl reg watches CR vids, reads/posts 2+2, etc. There are a bunch of 100nl pros, etc. 50nl is full of people who can't make it to 100nl.... it's probably the biggest jump i've seen.

Originally Posted by Robb

r the top Iron Man level which, after a year or so, is worth >$100 / month.

it's $100 bonus for each month (awarded 6-monthly), plus about $75 in medals that can buy bonuses, plus FPPs trade at about $3/1000 in 2+2 marketplace, plus the monthly ironman freeroll is about $90 in overlay per player...

Well, my 2 week poker hiatus is over - I think I'll play tonight for an hour or two. The last two weeks, I played 3 short sessions totaling just over 1k hands, and I was up about $40. I think I'm up about 1k for the month, but I haven't looked in a while.

I've still got a crazy schedule for the next month, then I can settle back into grinding. But at least for the next 4 weeks, I'll have some time to play and stay active on FTR.

My Summer Honors camp was a big success, now my fourth year as director. We had 42 teenagers join us for academics every morning and climbing at the ropes course in the afternoon where they competed in scored leadership events. We even took a rock climbing and rappelling trip. It's a residential camp, so we had special events in the evenings like a hypnosis show and an etiquette dinner. An intense but enjoyable 12 days.

The 8 college kids who worked the camp and I went out for beers after the Awards Banquet Friday night, and we had short bit of R&R before heading to sleep off 12 days of sleep-deprivation, sunburn, dehydration and the other results of going full-bore wide-open crazy-hard at fun in 95+ degree (F) heat for two weeks.

I've got some fun pics I'll post later. We always have mostly female campers, so 6 of my employees were college girls, most of them attractive and fit since we all have to be capable rock climbers, belayers and spotters. It's a real tough job, but someone's gotta do it, amiright?

Starting Monday, I teach a class that will have 48 contact hours in the next 8 school days, and the following week take two trips: first to DC to work with the National Science Foundation, and then a trip to Austin, TX, for a math conference. I won't play a ton of poker, but at least I'll get some hands in.

Hope y'all didn't let Spoony do anything foolish while I was away

Originally Posted by Robb

We always have mostly female campers, so 6 of my employees were college girls, most of them attractive and fit since we all have to be capable rock climbers, belayers and spotters. It's a real tough job, but someone's gotta do it, amiright?

so, this got me to thinking...
I have a math degree gathering dust somewhere
I've done some climbing
I'm sure my girlfriend is the understanding type
New Zealand is kinda exotic
I'm guessing you could do with some volunteer assistance....

Originally Posted by daven

Originally Posted by Robb

We always have mostly female campers, so 6 of my employees were college girls, most of them attractive and fit since we all have to be capable rock climbers, belayers and spotters. It's a real tough job, but someone's gotta do it, amiright?

so, this got me to thinking...
I have a math degree gathering dust somewhere
I've done some climbing
I'm sure my girlfriend is the understanding type
New Zealand is kinda exotic
I'm guessing you could do with some volunteer assistance....

As soon as we get the funding, we'll do Summer Honors New Zealand and put you in charge of all hiring, training and performance evaluations of the female staff.

robb

i demand june graphs

Originally Posted by AFchung

robb

i demand june graphs

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by AFchung

robb

i demand june graphs

Uh, June ain't over, yet, guys. I'll post tonight.

Garph for the month which doesn't include about $370 in rakeback, mostly from the last part of May and first week of June when I was playing a ton of hands. Haven't played seriously June 12th. Haven't calculated to the penny, but it appears I'm $5 - $10 shy of a 1k month (if you include rb). Still have ~ 5 hours to fix that, or totally f**k it up. :P

Positive variance fairy waved her magic wand over my 800 hands tonight, and I won 2.5 BI's at 50nl. So I'm up a bit more than 1.1k for the month if you count rb.

I've been updating records from the last 2 years of poker. I have incurred $775 in expenses, about $350 in initial deposits and the rest in software, money transfer charges and poker books. I've withdrawn and spent $1,825. And I have $2,650 in bankroll.

Total poker profits lifetime appear to be ~ $,3700.

It's interesting to watch Ben talk about his plans for withdrawing. I think he has a great plan. Mine's very different, but we each at least understand ourselves, what motivates us and what will keep us working hard at improving.

My goal is to develop a record of withdrawals in the next 6 months that sets some precedent for poker profits. I'd like to make a significant purchase (something with wheels + motor) with poker bucks. I hope to take my shot at 200nl by year's end, but I'm more interested in making several $500 withdrawals to prove to my wife I'm capable of making payments.

I think some of the others around here like Ben are well ahead of me in terms of understanding the game, but I feel like I'm really advancing a lot right now. So chillin' out at 50nl and 100nl is fine for the time being, as long as I'm profiting.

Just to show how little I played in 2nd half of June, I just got a week's rakeback (June 16 - 23) for a bankroll boosting $1.34. Woot!

I've been winning at 50nl, but my layoff (and the experimenting in May/June at various games/levels) seems to have sent my 100nl 6m game into the crapper. I'll be posting a lot of HH's in the next few days to see if I can sort some things out.

I know someone will comment on the less than full stack. I've been buying in for 80BB - if I win I stay at the table. Helps me early in sessions. When I see a juicy table, I chip up.


Hand 1: Villain is 25/18/2.2 over 77 hands with 100% cbet. I haven't played any interesting hands against him.

$0.5/$1 Deep No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($103.00)
UTG+1 ($191.05)
Hero (CO) ($108.70)
BTN ($378.50)
SB ($96.15)
BB ($204.10)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is CO
UTG raises to $3.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($8.50, 2 players)
UTG bets $6, Hero calls $6

Turn: ($20.50, 2 players)
UTG bets $15, Hero raises to $40, UTG goes all-in $93.50, $53.50 to Hero ($59.20)??


Hand 2: New to table w/ no regs, no more than 3 HH's on anyone.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (UTG) ($80.00)
UTG+1 ($100.60)
CO ($84.90)
BTN ($100.00)
SB ($100.00)
BB ($105.50)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $3.50, UTG+1 calls $3.50, CO calls $3.50, 2 folds, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($14.50, 4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks

Turn: ($14.50, 4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10, UTG+1 calls $10, CO calls $10, BB calls $10

River: ($54.50, 4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $36, 1 fold, CO goes all-in $71.40, BB folds, Hero goes all-in $30.50

Final Pot: $187.50
Hero shows:
CO shows:


Hand 3: This is one of those 3b spots that I get lost on. BB is 24/16/2.5 reg (255 hands) with 10% 3b from BB, 6% 3b over all. His squeeze is 11%. So I think he's light here a lot. Advice preflop and then flop, please.

$0.5/$1 Deep No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (UTG) ($80.00)
UTG+1 ($369.00)
CO ($105.65)
BTN ($202.60)
SB ($203.50)
BB ($191.05)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, CO calls $3.50, 2 folds, BB raises to $16.50, Hero calls $13, CO folds

Flop: ($37, 2 players)
BB bets $25, $25 to Hero ($63.50)??

One of the reasons I suck at poker is because I refuse to take good advice. Every poker mistake that exists - I'm determined to try it out myself just to verify that, in fact, it's a mistake.

The latest installment of said poker idiocy was mixing both FR and 6m in the same session. I had heard it was a bad idea, but of course I couldn't just let it be a theoretical bad idea - I had to prove it was a bad idea for me.

My problem is this:

1. I like 6m better than FR.
2. I've learned more about poker playing 6m.

Which doesn't sound like a problem except that:

3. I make more money playing FR.

Right now, on FTP, the .25/.50 FR tables are big time soft, and I can multitable my way to a nice hourly rate and earn some good rb and bonuses. It's fits easily into the time I have to play and should generate about $1k per month in profit. But it's work, not fun, 'cuz I'd rather be playing 6m.

So I put in 1k hands Saturday, then switched to 6m, and just got crushed. Then, when I went back to FR, I got crushed there. Just to review my spew-fest, I played 6m too weak-tight because of FR, and then I played FR too laggy 'cuz of 6m. So...$400 in the red later, I readjusted my FR game and played break-even for a short session, then won 3 BI's in an hour-long session today.

So I have my FR grind back in sync, and making money is certainly more fun than losing it. But I need to find some way to both generate the monthly profit I would like and leave myself serious chunks of time each month to work on my 6m game.

Perhaps the following plan is better: grind FR for the first three weeks of every month, then play 6m for about 10 days. That would allow me about 9-10 days of 6m each month while still generating a good income from poker. (I need the hands from FR to maintain iron man status and keep earning those bonuses.)

Robb I made $1500 in 6m last month, and $3000 two months ago
obviously, you can 5-6 table 6m like me and make profits and learn pokers

why would you want $1000 in FR when you can make say $750 in 6m and get better at pokers (saving yourself $200/hr in coaching, lol)

Its an ongoing decision as we move up. Money or education. It all sounds well and good to focus on improving all the time, but either we get a taste of the returns and want more, or we just get tired of always focusing on learning and just want to win some $s. Finding some balance is probably important (ideally we'd love to win nice $s as we learn, but we cant always rely on that). Your plan sounds pretty decent, try it for a few months and see how it goes.

Btw, fold 99 to the 3bet. Even with position you cant continue profitably there. Hand 1 just flat turn and river if you want to continue. 9Ts is a shitty spot after getting 2 callers on the turn. We lose value if we c/c I think, but if we get raised we're almost certainly beat. I might bet more like $20 to get called by worse and fold to a shove.

Originally Posted by iopq

Robb I made $1500 in 6m last month, and $3000 two months ago
obviously, you can 5-6 table 6m like me and make profits and learn pokers

why would you want $1000 in FR when you can make say $750 in 6m and get better at pokers (saving yourself $200/hr in coaching, lol)

Yeah, I got better at pokers for 8 months playing mostly 6m, but at some point I'd like to make steady withdrawals. My goals for the year were to take a shot at 200nl by the end of the year, and I can still do that and withdraw $2k - $3k over the next 6 months at my current win rate.

I guess I don't see why I can't manage both - when I have time to devote a couple weeks to poker, work on my 6m. When I just have 45 minutes a day a few days per week, play 50nl FR and profit. Part of winning monies at poker is putting in hands at games we can crush.

Life should settle down in the Fall - it always seems that Oct-Jan are my best months for progressing at poker. The rest of year is a struggle to keep my head above water with work, family and other obligations. So I'll kind of focus on FR until I have more time. I'll just build the roll, withdraw my targets, and generally profit, working on 6m as I have time.

Couple sessions of 50nl FR, 2.2k hands, up 7 BI. I was running like a god even though I stacked off to quads 3 times. Some of my losses from the weekend were negative variance (though not all), so I guess I'm about even.

Originally Posted by Robb

The latest installment of said poker idiocy was mixing both FR and 6m in the same session. I had heard it was a bad idea, but of course I couldn't just let it be a theoretical bad idea - I had to prove it was a bad idea for me.

need the hands from FR to maintain iron man status and keep earning those bonuses.

I'm also mixing FR and 6-max. Definitely takes discipline to switch, and i won't play both simultaneously. At least an hour break in between... TAG ranges are so different. It can be done, but it took me a while to get it sorted. Reading Jyms' why post is useful for this. Your idea sounds good.

also, you may be interested:
For low volume (<50k hands a month) low stakes ($100nl and less) grinders, FT ironman is great EV.

After 19 months:
* every month iron man equates to about $120 in medals
* every month iron man equates to likely 6-monthly $100 extra bonus
* add this to 27% rakeback if you're playing low volumes and it pumps it up heaps, but... diminishing returns as volume increases.

at a point it makes sense to play other sites as well - my plan once back in NZ involves maintaining supernova on stars/ironman on FT and Palladium on party. Most of my play will go where the best value lies that month, if similar i'll go to the best tables.

Fwiw, Ft ironman top status is easily achievable 4tabling 100nl 6m

I've noticed what may be my biggest 100nl leak. It seems that I tend to disrespect pretty much all villains I play until proven otherwise. I noticed this example in the BC yesterday and today:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...nl-t86954.html

Dozer and Spoon say fold, I'm like wtf? The board isn't that drawy, and villain's a 20/5/2.8 feesh. So he c/r'd. If he's not solid, the c/r could mean a lot of things south of the nuts. Hero has AA and board is like JT27, with the turn making a FD.

Whatever you think of the specific hand, what I'm realizing is that I tend to analyze opponents as though they're quite capable of big, stupid mistakes, and I include a fairly large amount of "junk" in my estimates of their ranges.

I think that's valid for a lot of 25nl and 50nl villains (and below), but what I am beginning to realize about 100nl (both FR and 6m) is that they do actually put people on ranges and are reasonably good at it.

I watch guys like griffey and daven commenting on BJ's op HH's and saying things like "how often do you show up with TP here?" I'm generally thinking "who cares?" because I don't tend to believe villains are capable of analyzing at that level.

But I think it's holding me back in terms of poker development. I don't have any plans to start respecting 25nl villains, lulz, but I think I'm going to have to start doing a better job of leveling the 100nl TAGG-regs and realizing they DO put people on ranges. I've got to play my range effectively, and merge ranges better. I've got to back off my aggression when my range is weak and ratchet it up when my range is strong (regardless of whether I have the goods or not).

I think this will help a lot.

Another question I have going forward is whether I play too TAGGy. Each at new level higher, the TAGG's get looser. My 19/16 6m style is a bit nitty at 100nl and seems more than a bit nitty compared to some 200nl players I'm familiar with. But whenever I try to open up my game, I lose.

So why not nit it up? I think I have a lot of room for improvement playing the hands I do open for a solid win rate without adding much right now. So I'm done with the "loosening up" experiments right now and focused on solid pokerz. I'm trying to maximize the number of "spots" I can pick to attack looser/laggier players, so my game will open up as the games I play in loosen up. But I'm no longer looking to add any VPiP to my playing total.

Just dont overadjust and start giving unknowns (even reggy ones) credit for thinking too well either.

I'm still running about 21/17 and beating 100nl healthily. No need to open up too much. If its not broken, dont fix it . I spoke to Griffey about openning up my range and wanting to become more of a lag, and he basically asked why the hell I'd want to do that when I can just play strong ranges against those people? Good question.

Honestly, the loosening up has a lot less to do with adding hands to your 'normal' ranges for opening and more to do with isolating fish and bad regs. If you isolate like a madman already then all you need is table selection, but I would bet you could stand to isolate more.

First session in about 7 days last night - down about $1.50 over 700 hands. The National Science Foundation is great to work with - the sign you're in the big time for folks with careers like mine - but they demand a lot of work for the tiny stipend they provide. I didn't get any poker played for 3 days before I left 'cuz I was doing work they expected me to get done prior to the meeting. Once there, it was work, work and more work. Still, small price to pay to get a chance to work for them.

Robb what's your FTP name? (Can PM if you prefer)

Yo Robb, sup bro? Update?

haven't seen you post forever robb. hope all is good

Originally Posted by AFchung

haven't seen you post forever robb. hope all is good

It's all very good. I'm on the beach at Hilton Head Island with family. My sister and her husband and 3 kids few out from Kansas City. My parents came down, and my wife and 3 kids drove over.

Before this trip, I had math conferences, one with the NSF in DC and the other in Austin, TX. So I've played like 300 hands of poker this month and maybe 3k in the last 6 weeks.

I did get in one session last weekend and was down like 3 BI, but who really flippin' cares when you're headed for the beach the next day? I flopped a set 3 way against QQ and AA overs - rivered a Q. And I flopped 2 pair against AA only for the river to pair the board. So bye bye 2 BI and off to the beach.

I'll have to get back to the grind in early August. I hope all y'all are enjoying the last weeks of summer. My summer started for real about 9 days ago, and it feels awesome.

Today is my 12th wedding anniversary. But we're not celebrating tonight. We drove back from the beach yesterday - 6.5 hours in the van with 3 kids age 5 or less My wife and I are going out for a nice dinner later this week when we can arrange for a babysitter.

Today, our soon-to-be 3 year old moved out of his crib into a toddler bed - no more bars, he's LOOSE

I got two sessions of pokerz in, down 2 BI's. But my end-of-July withdrawal means I've taken nearly $2k out of my poker accounts. Daven's idea of withdrawing on a downswing works amazingly well for me psychologically.

Final thought: winning at 50nl isn't about taking down pots with the worst hand, it's about winning the maximum with the best hand.

Final thought: I just read this thread title as Winning is a Hobbit

Originally Posted by iopq

Final thought: I just read this thread title as Winning is a Hobbit

Winnar in the randomness sweepstakes, lol

Back to the grind - I'm running about 5 ptBB/100 last 4k hands. I was running a bit cold when I first got back to grindin', but I was playing like crap, too. But even rusty I can still play.

Here are a couple of happy hands, where I got reads and played well, imo.

Hand 1: 35/20/inf (small sample), but very feeshy in one hand I've seen. Read is that I should be making this shove against this guy w/ KJo, but the BDFD made shoveling easier.

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($43.45)
UTG+1 ($28.25)
MP1 ($50.00)
MP2 ($32.95)
CO ($49.20)
BTN ($51.20)
SB ($55.25)
Hero (BB) ($60.45)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 8 players) Hero is BB
UTG raises to $1.75, 6 folds, Hero calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.75, 2 players)
Hero bets $2, UTG raises to $4, Hero calls $2

Turn: ($11.75, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $11.75, Hero raises to $47, UTG folds


Hand 2: 65/15/1 lulz - should I have value bet my K-high on the river?

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($24.05)
UTG+1 ($16.30)
MP1 ($62.50)
MP2 ($55.05)
MP3 ($10.45)
CO ($56.60)
Hero (BTN) ($40.00)
SB ($25.70)
BB ($8.25)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 9 players) Hero is BTN
UTG calls $0.50, 5 folds, Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.75, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($4.75, 2 players)
UTG bets $3, Hero calls $3

River: ($10.75, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Final Pot: $10.75
UTG shows:

Some things I'm learning.

1. Deception ain't deceiving without playing "standard" lines pretty often. Overused, it's just predictable suboptimal poker.

2. Ranges matter. I've been giving thought (and some maths) to thresholds, for example, at what PFR is it time to start squeezing certain villains light, say, with A4s or 98s? At what BTN steal% is it time to resteal from BB with A4o?

3. I probably spend way too much time randomizing various actions at the table, but I'm a geek and I like doing it.

4. ZOMFG!! betting like 1/3 or 2/5 pot on the flop is way too fun. Can't do it very often, but I use it on semi-drawy boards, half the time with total air, the other half with TPTK or an overpair. Specifically, I'm looking for situations where my opponent's range isn't draw-heavy but mine might seem to be.

5. After betting the flop 2/5's, betting the turn 4/5's is also fun.

6. Betting is a cultural thing - certain bets mean certain things to the community of players at a certain level, in a certain game type and on certain sites. So betting non-standard amounts (like #4 and #5 above) really crosses people up. It's like the conversation was in French, then someone starts talking in Japanese. No one understands it, so they react to it quickly without enough thought and make mistakes.

7. The culture of betting at 50nl FR on FTP is to NEVER AND I MEAN NEVER bet the pot, unless you're drawing/bluffing. It's almost that way, but standard bets are about 2/3's, so just throwing out a psb every now and again is speaking Japanese.

Originally Posted by Robb

Betting is a cultural thing

Great read over all! Man, your blog is packed with useful information. I almost feel greedy asking you to continue it

This betting as a culture line is gold if you think about it. Its something I have noticed a TON in MTTs and STTs. Even on stars a PSB is something I see rarely.

Interesting night last night. I wrote some AHK betting scripts - does anyone else do that? I haven't wanted to invest in a commercial product 'cuz the software changes mean constant updates/down time.

So I played some 2nl and 10nl, testing out a bet-2/3s-pot script (which I can't get to work right ), and those mothers must of thought I had lost my mind. I'd have 52o but have just finished some new code I thought might work, so I'd go raisy daisy. Hell, it was only a dime.

So I move up to 50nl, having to cut back on tables while I figure out my hotkeys. After an hour, I start thinking poker instead of "is that Right-click or Ctrl+Right-Click???" And I realize I'm on a massive heater, like +5 BI in 500 hands or something sick. I was getting AA and flopping A98 with some poor bastard who had AK raising my cbet. I had more sets in an hour last night than I think I've had all month, and half of them people are throwing chips at me. Weeeeeeee!!! Had a couple all-in coolers (deserved) to end the night, up about 4 BI's total over 900 hands or so.

About those scripts (which, since I'm a geek, were way more exciting than a 50nl heater - lulz) ... I play my tables stacked, so the buttons are all in the same place on every table. I hover over the "fold" and have 3 preflop hotkeys all based the "bet pot" button which auto-opens 3.5x + 1BB / limper. The other two auto-open 3x (for OTB) or 4x (for SB) by moving the mouse wheel after clicking the pot button. Just having preflop scripts is massively efficient. All the auto-open scripts move my mouse back over the Fold button as they finish, so I can take preflop actions on 10 tables in 15 seconds or less, as long as no one does anything stoopid.

Flop scripts that adjust to any pot size are harder. My scripts keep confusing FTP's software. So I'll probably have some common post flop bet sizes like $3 $5 and $10 where the script will auto-jump to the bet field, enter that bet, then allow me to scroll up or down to fine tune the bet I want.

I'm pretty much a geek as I mentioned a couple posts up, so the baby-programming was WAY more fun than it should have been if I was normal. Stayed up 'til 2 AM fiddling with it.

Just for full disclosure, I'm not trying to massively overdose on multitabling. But making all the repetitive motion extremely efficient frees up time to think about poker decisions and type notes on interesting hands.

Oh, yeah, and I've been doing a bunch of maths on squeeze bets. I'll be posting something soon. I've got the game theory and EV stuff right and 3 pages typed explaining my thought processes. I had a bug in my computations that I fixed last night, but I haven't had enough time to work through all the scenarios based on effective stacks, looser villains, etc.

Originally Posted by Robb

About those scripts (which, since I'm a geek, were way more exciting than a 50nl heater - lulz) ... I play my tables stacked, so the buttons are all in the same place on every table. I hover over the "fold" and have 3 preflop hotkeys all based the "bet pot" button which auto-opens 3.5x + 1BB / limper. The other two auto-open 3x (for OTB) or 4x (for SB) by moving the mouse wheel after clicking the pot button. Just having preflop scripts is massively efficient. All the auto-open scripts move my mouse back over the Fold button as they finish, so I can take preflop actions on 10 tables in 15 seconds or less, as long as no one does anything stoopid.

I must admit.. the engineer in my does like the sound of this too! Can you only write these scripts for FT or for stars too?

I probably don't play enough tables to warrant any of this, but it sounds sweet.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Originally Posted by Robb

About those scripts (which, since I'm a geek, were way more exciting than a 50nl heater - lulz) ... I play my tables stacked, so the buttons are all in the same place on every table. I hover over the "fold" and have 3 preflop hotkeys all based the "bet pot" button which auto-opens 3.5x + 1BB / limper. The other two auto-open 3x (for OTB) or 4x (for SB) by moving the mouse wheel after clicking the pot button. Just having preflop scripts is massively efficient. All the auto-open scripts move my mouse back over the Fold button as they finish, so I can take preflop actions on 10 tables in 15 seconds or less, as long as no one does anything stoopid.

I must admit.. the engineer in my does like the sound of this too! Can you only write these scripts for FT or for stars too?

I probably don't play enough tables to warrant any of this, but it sounds sweet.

My scripts just simulate mouse clicks. Basically, my preflop script points the mouse at the "pot" button and clicks, then moves to the "bet" button and clicks again. Then it repositions the cursor. The commands are simple Click {x-coord,y-coord} statements. I play on Starz, too, and it should work fine there, too. You just have to take a second to use the "spy" to find the cursor coords and you're in.

If you're betting by pointing and clicking, you can probably script it. The dialog box for typing in bets uses ASCII text, so you can just set up a click command to point and click there and type in 5.50, for example. After it's typed in, you can scroll up/dn to tweak it.

I'm gonna post something on baby AHK scripts for pokerz in the BC soon. Here's my latest scripting effort. When I wanna post HH's, this opens up the needed web pages.

_____

^+P::
Run http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/forum/
Run http://weaktight.com/hand/
Run http://pandora.com
return

_____

^+P sets Ctrl + Shift + P as a hotkey that sends three commands (the :: says "make that a hotkey sequence" and 'return' closes a compound command). With Mozilla open or closed, this will open three browser tabs and load FTR, weaktight and my tunes.

I'm geeking up my work computer right now with productivity enhancing hotkeys for checking Arsenal Football Club news, FTR, and downloading porn.

Oh wow. I'm completely clueless with this stuff but that scripts works like a charm! Thanks Robb! Def. hoping you make a post about your new preflop betting script because FT Shortcuts is killing me.

Originally Posted by kmind

Oh wow. I'm completely clueless with this stuff but that scripts works like a charm! Thanks Robb! Def. hoping you make a post about your new preflop betting script because FT Shortcuts is killing me.

OK, I'll do it tonight. They're really easy. I post some screen shots and sh!t so it's super easy.

Yah I'm interested in this stuff too, thanks dude!

So that above code you wrote, where is it saved? Are you writing a text file or what? sorry i'm a newb!

I guess I'll just wait for your post later :P

Originally Posted by griffey24

Yah I'm interested in this stuff too, thanks dude!

So that above code you wrote, where is it saved? Are you writing a text file or what? sorry i'm a newb!

I guess I'll just wait for your post later :P

I just use a .txt file (wintext, or w/e text editor my computer has), type the commands and save it with the .ahk extension. Windows freaks out about the file extension change, I tell it to call down, and then the system recognizes it as a script.

Thanks to grif and kmind, who got me posting this stuff.

Creating Basic Scripts for Pokerz is a tutorial that teaches the basics of scripting and gives some screen shots on the parts I had a bit of trouble with initially (Rage helped me out when I was getting started).

And I put an advertisement post in the BC: Learning to Make Your own Betting Scripts.

Great post again!

Can these scripts only handle moushe up and down movements, or can it also handle text inputs?

For example, If I want a script that opens gmail. I can open the browswer, and it opens gmail. I know the coordinates for the "user name" section and I can click inthe box. Is there a way for it to automatically enter in my username?

Or any other text in any other text box you might wanna enter text into.. a bet size text box even.

AHK can imitate just about any action that you can do on your computer. So for opening gmail and signing in you could do a run command for www.gmail.com, you'll notice the cursor is already on the account by default so have AHK send your username, tab, password, then enter. I haven't used AHK for ages but it would look something like this:

(your hotkey)::
Run http://www.gmail.com/
Send griffey24+2gmail.com
Send {TAB}
Send irtehpwnleetz
Send {ENTER}
return

The second line being your username, +2 is actually a shift keystroke plus 2 which is @ and your domain name after. Fourth line is your password, then enter. Again, kinda rusty with AHK but that's the general idea for logging into your email. Sorry if I soulread your password.

p.s. Actually gmail doesn't require you to type @gmail after it so it could simply be Send griffey24 without the @gmail.com after.

Sweeet thats awesome, thanks gobbatino!

oh man I'm gonna get addicted to these things I'm pretty sure.

ugh time to change my password :P

Nps, man. If you're planning on getting addicted to it, here's the list of commands:

http://www.autohotkey.com/docs/commands.htm

Also, with the script before, you'll need a short command after you load gmail to have the computer wait a few moments before executing the rest of the script due to loading times, opening the browser, etc. Depends on how fast your computer/internet is, I guess you'll have to test it. The command is:

Sleep, x

where x is in milliseconds so

Sleep, 1000

will have it wait one second before moving on to the next command. Enjoy!

p.s. Sorry to hijack your OP Robb.

Originally Posted by Gobbatino

p.s. Sorry to hijack your OP Robb.

LoL - I learned something in your post that helped me, so no worries. Hijack away if you know things about scripting.

Grif, here's my gmail acount script (thanks to tino):

__________

^G::
Run www.gmail.com
Sleep 5000
Send robbsinn
Send {Tab}
Send screwuthoughtidputmyrealpassworddidntu
Send {Enter}
return
__________


The sleep 5000 has the script pause for 5 second while Mozilla cranks up. Seems excessive, especially when a browser is already open. But it works (yeah, tino!!)

So I'm gonna learn to write an IF statement and possibly using a WinActive command to speed things up. I'll post it when I get it done.

oh mann yah you gotta lower that wait time, that would tilt me running a script to make my life easier/faster and having to wait 5 seconds

Good work guys, gonna give this all a go tonight!

Originally Posted by griffey24

oh mann yah you gotta lower that wait time, that would tilt me running a script to make my life easier/faster and having to wait 5 seconds

Good work guys, gonna give this all a go tonight!

Here's a nice script with two sick features:

_________

^G::
SetTitleMatchMode 2
Run www.gmail.com
WinWaitActive, Gmail
Sleep 750
Send robbsinn
Send {Tab}
Send uainteverguessinthispassword
Send {Enter}
return
_________

Sick feature 1: "WinWaitActive" command waits for a browser window/tab with "Gmail" in its title to become active.

Sick feature 2: The Sleep for 3/4's of a second starts AFTER the window activates and basically just gives a split second for the page to load. Since we go there often, most of the page is in cache, so 3/4's of a second should be enough time to load it.

Sick feature 2b: Since the "Sleep" time happens after the window activates, it doesn't matter whether the browser was open or not, or how long it takes for it to load.

Sick problem: The script doesn't recognize when gmail is ALREADY logged in, so it tries to enter some keystrokes in the URL field. I've tried a couple workarounds, but haven't fixed it, yet. I'll post again when I do.

Griffey, 750 milliseconds works pretty seamlessly for me but you can speed it if your machine/internet connection is faster.

Originally Posted by Robb

[
Sick problem: The script doesn't recognize when gmail is ALREADY logged in, so it tries to enter some keystrokes in the URL field. I've tried a couple workarounds, but haven't fixed it, yet. I'll post again when I do.

I was thinking this might be a problem. Can't you just tell the cursor to go to the coordinates where the username is normally located and click down and then type in the username. If the page isnt logged in, it will type it in, if it is already logged in, it will randomly press the coordinates which is now a location in our inbox and won't be able ot type there anyhow?

I'm just making assumptions here, I was gonna try this later.

Try using the exact name for the window before you log on. On Firefox it's:

WinWaitActive Google Mail - Mozilla Firefox

since when you're logged in it should be something different such as

Gmail - Inbox (372) - [email protected] - Mozilla Firefox

it should work, I think.

Warning: Brag. Sick heater graph:


The green line ends in top right, 'cuz this was the VERY last hand (I had sat out of all my tables except this one):

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (UTG) ($63.25)
UTG+1 ($29.75)
MP1 ($84.60)
MP2 ($10.00)
MP3 ($10.00)
CO ($11.50)
BTN ($82.55)
SB ($21.40)
BB ($19.50)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 9 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $1.75, 5 folds, BTN calls $1.75, SB raises to $3.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.75, BTN calls $1.75

Flop: ($11, 3 players)
SB bets $11, Hero calls $11, BTN raises to $39, SB goes all-in $6.90, Hero goes all-in $59.75, BTN calls $20.75

Turn: ($148.40, 3 players)

River: ($148.40, 3 players)

Final Pot: $148.40
Hero shows:
BTN shows:
SB shows:

Hero wins $145.40 ( won +$82.15 )

Hand 1 (above): Just to clarify my preflop action, SB was goofy 16/12 player I little read on but no respect for, and BTN was LAG-tard I wanted to play against deep.

Hand 2: Most folks know I'm not a nit, but both of these villains were. I REALLY wanted to shovel:

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($50.45)
UTG+1 ($60.70)
MP1 ($40.10)
MP2 ($119.25)
Hero (MP3) ($73.70)
CO ($71.30)
BTN ($50.00)
SB ($96.20)
BB ($50.00)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 9 players) Hero is MP3
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 raises to $2.25, Hero calls $2.25, 4 folds, MP1 raises to $8, MP2 raises to $27, Hero folds, MP1 goes all-in $40.10, MP2 calls $13.10

Flop: ($83.20, 2 players)

Turn: ($83.20, 2 players)

River: ($83.20, 2 players)

Final Pot: $83.20
MP1 shows:
MP2 shows:


Hand 3:And this hand made an already-tilting LAG-tard leave the table:

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($54.40)
UTG+1 ($33.15)
MP1 ($73.70)
Hero (MP2) ($117.55)
CO ($50.20)
BTN ($61.60)
SB ($57.65)
BB ($51.50)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 8 players) Hero is MP2
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.25, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls $1.75

Flop: ($5.25, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $3, UTG+1 calls $3

Turn: ($11.25, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $5, UTG+1 calls $5

River: ($21.25, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $12.50, Hero raises to $25, UTG+1 goes all-in $10.40

Final Pot: $67.05
UTG+1 shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $66.15 ( won +$30.90 )

Sorry for brag post, but I hadn't hit a straight flush in 2009 though I've paid a couple of them off.

And, of course, I made a screen shot AHK script to help speed up posting pics online 'cuz that's what I've been doing lately:

__________

^+S::
Send {PrintScreen}
Run Microsoft Photo Editor
WinWait Microsoft Photo Editor
Send !{E}
Send {N}
return

ah, some very sick hands there robb.

Hi, i'm back btw!

Keep in touch fella, i messaged you on here a little whiles ago. I have a new op.

So you're playing 50nl these days i see?

laters.

Originally Posted by wonderland

ah, some very sick hands there robb.

Hi, i'm back btw!

Keep in touch fella, i messaged you on here a little whiles ago. I have a new op.

So you're playing 50nl these days i see?

laters.

Yeah, I was away from pokerz for most of June and July, and away from FTR for most of July. And all the threads/ops I was following no longer send me emails when they update **argh!!!** so I've been (slowly) going through and finding everyone's threads to get back in the loop.

Glad you're back, too. Hope poker goes well for you.

Yes, I'm playing 50nl FR the first three weeks this month to book my monthly win and needed hands for bonus level I want. The last 10 days, I'll work on my 6m and possibly HU game a little. I'll probably play a day at 25nl 6m, then 50 and then a 100nl. I'm still rolled comfortably for 100nl, but I've been withdrawing $200 / month and I'm really rusty. So I'm winning and working on theory and maths and how to program AHK scripts.

OK, in between AHK scripts, I've been working on the math behind the the Squeeze bet, specifically wider ranges for value squeezes, light squeezes and Hero adjustments to serial squeezing. Situation: 3.5 BB PFR, 1 caller, Hero 14 BB squeeze LP. All fold except (maybe) PFR.

There are three cases: PFR folds (F), calls (C) or 4bets (B). F + C + B = 1, and thus:

EV = 8 F - 14 B + C * {some function of Q and P}

The function in brackets depends on Hero's winning percentage (Q) and the average pot size when we see a flop (P). Call it F(Q,P). Hero's investment postflop is (P-5)/2 because of the 5 BB of dead money, and he wins (P+5)/2. This analysis assumes Hero can avoid reverse implied odds when forced to play postflop. When squeezing light, Hero must win a proportional share of big pots and small/medium pots, or win more than his share of small pots.

F(Q,P) = Q ( P + 5 ) / 2 - ( 1 - Q ) ( P - 5 ) / 2 = ... = P ( Q - 0.5 ) + 2.5

Setting EV = 0, and solving for Q, and then rearranging in several different ways to achieve something usable and reasonably simple, we get:

Q = (1/P) [ ( 14 B - 8.5 F ) / C ) -2.5 ] + 0.5

IMPORTANT!! The way I wrote F(Q,P) requires Q to be more than just equity, or how we think of poker equity. Q here is the "earn-able" proportion of the total dollars Hero invests that he can "win back" postflop. So Q is increased by position and includes Hero's postflop skill difference vs. this specific villain. An unimportant fact is that I assumed postflop average pot size P to be 80 BB when I worked through a few dozen example ranges, but Q turns out not to depend too heavily on it. We just need a ball park figure there.

I made an excel spreadsheet which does the math and then produced a couple hundred sample combinations of various PFR, 4b and CC ranges. (I'll ship it to you if you bothered to read all this and pm me.) But just the equation shows some interesting points.

1. The playable equity Q varies inversely with P, the postflop average pot size. This means that short stackers have a HUGE additional edge when squeezing, since their downside when they get stuck in a big pot is less.

2. The term in parenthesis is "Don't Continue Equity" divided by Continuation %. Well, whenever Villain's Fold:4b ratio is ~ 3:2, this value is positive. In other words, against any TAGG-reg, Hero can squeeze light in LP and then just break even (or slightly worse) when playing a flop to earn TONS of chips.

3. Whenever TAGG-reg Villains fail to adjust and are in positions where they continue with about half their range, Hero generally needs Q ~ 42 - 45 to break even.

4. If Villain continues with 40% of his range or less (whether PFR is small or big), Hero generally needs Q ~ 33% to break even.

5. Q doesn't change much in the blinds vs. LP squeezes, but Hero's ability to derive playable equity is severely diminished.

6. What if we're villain? Then adjusting is a giant pain in the arse. I haven't done tons of analysis here (next week's project!), but I do know it doesn't matter (much) in terms of impact on Q whether we adjust by 4b'ing lighter or calling more, but there are obviously limits to how much of our range we can 4bet when we're opening in a wide PFR spot. Obviously, flatting is better ip, and 4b'ing lighter is better oop due to playability issues.

7. Interesting Adjustment: Suppose a notoriously light squeezer is in the blinds and Hero's the flat caller in LP (so he'll have position postflop). Hero should FLAT a MUCH wider range than I would have thought, especially mediocre broadways we wouldn't generally want to play big pots with because they connect with lots of flops in the MIDDLE of the light squeezer's polarized range. There's so much dead money in the pot that Hero needs Q < 20% in most cases to profit.


Some rules of thumb when considering light squeezes:

1. Against nits and when squeezing from the blinds, we're need for F (fold %, or squeeze FE) to be ~60%, e.g. for F > 1.5 C. Otherwise, squeezing light is unlikely to be profitable.

2. LP squeezes are generally profitable when Villain will continue half or less of the time (F > C). This assumes we're squeezing light with hands like Axs or sc's where our equity will be in the 30's but we'll increase it ~42-45 by leveraging positional advantage and postflop skill advantage (which hopefully exists :P).

3. Adjusting to massive squeezing requires us to play uncomfortably big pots with medium strength hands, or tighten up preflop, or both. If we continue a third of the time or less, we're exploitable by someone squeezing with all their Axs and sc's plus a pretty wide value range.

4. Flat calling dynamics are more interesting than I realized, and in a game with lots of squeezes, Hero MUST adjust his LP flat calling strategy. Probably do it less, first of all, then shift the range away from small pp's and toward big cards hands that will hold up well when Hero flats after the PFR folds (and squeezer is in blinds).

or just flat his JJ and ship it in to a squeeze

Originally Posted by Robb

OK, in between AHK scripts, I've been working on the math behind the the Squeeze bet,

geek.
Rather than math, I've been writing-learning about some simple postflop spots and max-EV vs +-EV lines during the coupld of weeks i'm taking off plazing poker. That, and hiking and camping and general scandanavian wandering and stuff...

also, did i send you that bet-sizing math-thing about six months back?

Originally Posted by daven

Originally Posted by Robb

OK, in between AHK scripts, I've been working on the math behind the the Squeeze bet,

geek.
Rather than math, I've been writing-learning about some simple postflop spots and max-EV vs +-EV lines during the coupld of weeks i'm taking off plazing poker. That, and hiking and camping and general scandanavian wandering and stuff...

also, did i send you that bet-sizing math-thing about six months back?

Never got the bet-size math thing, I don't think. I've done plenty of the "think tank" approach where I play a range through postflop streets against different types of villains. That's definitely helpful, though my mind might wander off poker if I was in Scandinavia.

I'm going to put together some ranges and poker stove work to go along with the above squeeze maths, but I'm headed for a nap. I woke up at 4 AM (a child had wet the bed) and never back to sleep.

I just feel like there are certain "inflection" points where, if Villain is going to continue with X range and raise with Y range, that means Hero should adjust by playing combo WZ in a certain way. I want to understand those inflection points and their implications. 'Cuz learning 100nl by "feel" sucks. I feel like I need to work on the typical dealing-with-agro spots and get some coherence my adjustments for about a week from now when I start playing 6m again and readjust to 100nl after 10 weeks of rustiness and 50nl full nit.

I've got some other mathy posts in the works, too. But now it's time for sleep.

'Cuz learning 100nl by "feel" sucks.

I have a question Robb.

So, are you saying that learning 100nl by just playing it and trying just make sensible decisions, play straightforward etc. isn't working?

and if so, what are you coming up against opposition wise? AND does this imply that the only real winners at 100nl are people who are highly maths oriented?

Originally Posted by wonderland

'Cuz learning 100nl by "feel" sucks.

I have a question Robb.

So, are you saying that learning 100nl by just playing it and trying just make sensible decisions, play straightforward etc. isn't working?

and if so, what are you coming up against opposition wise? AND does this imply that the only real winners at 100nl are people who are highly maths oriented?

I´d suggests a different view on stakes and skill levels. It´s not like there was THAT 100nl game and another 50nl or 2nl or 1knl or whatever stakes game. It´s all the same game and nothing changes, but ranges. Really, thats what it all comes down to. If anybody feels like generalizing and say that such games "play more aggro" or others "are full of calling stations" please realize, that in one case betting and raising ranges widen (and hence, weaken), in the other calling ranges are wider. Yet it´s not like there was any room for generalizations of such kind, you will just find a certain subset of playertypes (who are classified by common ranges in particular situations) at different stakes.

You don´t learn 100NL and neither do you learn any other stake of no boundaries hold thems. All you gotta learn is to read a hand, to perceive your opponent and to act accordingly, be it .02/.04 or 200/400. Learning a specific limit is nothing but becoming familiar with how to deal with common scenarios and to put them as a ready made action in your toolbox to save time and brain capacity at the table.

I think XTR got it right - the game is the same, but I'm not as successful in poker (50nl, 100nl, w/e) as I want to be. So the way I make sense of the game is work on maths. I haven't had a chance to post my results, yet, but I've put together sample ranges for villains of certain ilks and thought a lot about how to maximize my profit in various situations and adjust appropriately.

It's like XTR says, I think, it's all about ranges. But I understand ranges best in mathematical terms, so I do the math. Maybe I should have said "learning to respond the different ranges at 100nl by feel alone" SUCKS.

I think 100nl is the first time I've found regs who adjust to me and how I play. So I have to make my own game more flexible and resilient. Knowing what adjustments might work is easy. Knowing when and where to adjust, and why, and how effective each counter-adjustment might be ... well, that's what I'm working on.

Here's a chart to give some of the break-even points for Hero given various ranges for Villain's 4bets, flat calls and folds. I've tried to find combinations of parameters that get us Q's about 1/3, 2/5 and 1/2:



Let's talk about a TAGG-reg opening in MP with 14% of all his hands, say something like 22+, AJ+, ATs, KQ, KJs, 76s+ and A2s - A4s, which is spot on 14% and might be reasonable. What will he continue with? Let's say he 4bets QQ+ and AK, flats AQ, AJs, KQ, and 88 - JJ.

So this villain is 14/3/4.5 (that's PFR/4b/flat). That combination isn't on the chart, but it turns out that Hero needs Q = 45% to make the action profitable. Here is the stove for Hero's Squeeze with an sc and Axs, two common light squeeze choices.

Squeeze w/ 98s equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.354% 65.98% 00.37% 244044828 1371864.00 { JJ-88, AQs-AJs, KQs, AQo, KQo }
Hand 1: 33.646% 33.27% 00.37% 123069108 1371864.00 { 98s }

Squeeze w/ A4s equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.634% 58.65% 00.98% 220947144 3699358.00 { JJ-88, AQs-AJs, KQs, AQo, KQo }
Hand 1: 40.366% 39.38% 00.98% 148361020 3699358.00 { A4s }

In position squeezing with Axs, Hero's equity is only 5% less than Q, so he should be well able to eke some profit. Since this is a hand I don't much flatting with, it's a perfect candidate for squeezing. Even though sc's flop good, we can probably make more with it flatting since it's a more deceptive hand postflop. (I have a big maths posts on the flopability of sc's and Axs, which I'll get to some time this week.) What about squeezing with a hand like K9s which I would normally fold.

Squeeze w/ K9s equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.070% 63.24% 00.83% 229576996 3002414.00 { JJ-88, AQs-AJs, KQs, AQo, KQo }
Hand 1: 35.930% 35.10% 00.83% 127426624 3002414.00 { K9s }

This seems to me to be pretty borderline. I probably still fold. You can play around with various combos you typically squeeze, flat or fold and see how they match up playability-wise vs. the needed 45% Q, but remember it's breakeven equity. I'm looking for hands where I can about 50% of the time so the profits take care of the times the original flat caller bombs and when I misjudge Villain's range. So with a PFR of only 14%, I'm squeezing carefully with higher value "light" combos.

The nice thing is that we often face TAGG-reg villains who open more like 18% or 20% but don't adjust their flat calling range (like me, for example, until this post :P). What if the PFR range is 22+, 65s+, Axs, AT+, KJ and KTs+? And what if this reg doesn't adjust his 4b/flatting ranges? Then Q = 34.3%, and our equity is much better with various mediocre hands. Here are a few:

Squeeze w/ JTs equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.286% 59.90% 00.38% 217450344 1391784.00 { JJ-88, AQs-AJs, KQs, AQo, KQo }
Hand 1: 39.714% 39.33% 00.38% 142774536 1391784.00 { JTs }

Squeeze w/ A8os equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.412% 62.32% 01.09% 665873892 11673474.00 { JJ-88, AQs-AJs, KQs, AQo, KQo }
Hand 1: 36.588% 35.50% 01.09% 379256856 11673474.00 { A8o }

So you can see the results, and come to your own conclusions. But I've learned a lot. The next step for me is take this and flip toward Hero getting squeezed, reset the EV equation, recalculate Q and then look at continuation ranges Hero can use to adjust in high squeeze games.

Finally, oop sucks. I think people squeeze too light a lot of time oop. Generally, unless we expect Villain's PFR near 20% and continuation range around 8% or 9%, we're going to be hard pressed to show a profit with sc's and Axs generally speaking. But this analysis shows why squeezing is so profitable. There are lots of players who continue with a good bit LESS than 7% of their hands when squeezed, so some nit who's only gonna continue with 5% is just begging for a squeeze any time PFR ~ 11 or 12 if squeezer has position, and any time PFR ~ 13 or 14 if squeezer is oop.

First glance at adjusting. I tried the stove with AA and AKs included in Villain's flat call range (since I tend to mix up my plans with the premium comobs). By the way, this shifts Hero's Q number. Villain is now 14/2.2/5.3, and Hero's Q ~ 33%. The equity number for Axs only decreases by 2%. So shifting premium hands out of the 4b range into the flat call range WITHOUT shifting some less powerful hands back into the 4b range is HORRIBLE. In squeeze happy games, Hero can probably jam with at least 75% of premium combos, just keeping enough the flat range to mix it up slightly. The reason Hero should jam against most squeezes is that to combat the squeeze, 4b'ing is better than flatting. Since Hero needs an uncomfortably wide 4b range, it's good to leave the big hands in there and probably include some of the top end of the flat calling range I specified, say, JJ/AQ type hands.

I'm within a couple thousand 50nl hands of having enough FTP's to buy this:

Samsung T240 24-inch LCD Monitor

It costs me M = 81000 * 0.27 * 0.005 ~ $110 worth of rake, but still well over $200 worth of extra poker profits for the month. The max resolution will be about 80% more area than what I'm playing on now with enough pixels to display 4 Full Tilt tables tiled at their DEFAULT size - with room left at the side for HEM's HH window or note-taking windows although they'll be only partly visible.

LoL, my eyes aren't getting any younger, so this HAS to be +++EV.

I'll have to rewrite all my betting scripts, but I'm learning how to program GUI windows in AHK, so I'll probably automate the setup and give them to FTR folks who want to adjust them for their own setups and other poker clients, but who also don't feel like fiddling with learning to program scripts.

Originally Posted by Robb

I'm pretty much a geek as I mentioned a couple posts up, so the baby-programming was WAY more fun than it should have been if I was normal. Stayed up 'til 2 AM fiddling with it.

I know it's off topic now - but glad to see there's other geeks with the same issues as me :P I ended up making a basic HUD (more of a chart) that worked under linux from a PT3 DB back when it was in beta - spent a week or so making it behave properly... then used it for a total of what 2 weeks before I got distracted by something else and got too busy coding to actually play poker and use it.. Oops!

Geek obsessions == -EV..

I was reading Ben's op thread this morning, and I'm having a worse downswing than his. I don't talk about it a lot online 'cuz I don't like whining. I know Ben's much the same way. We have both learned to own our losses, not talk about variance when there are leaks.

But ya know what? Sometimes I HATE this poker motherf****r!!! I went on a 12 BI downswing over the last 3 sessions, and sure I tilted some (not really bad) and I played bad (not really bad). I just refocused on played again last night, up 2 BI in 1.1k hands. No real changes, so maybe the variance was the issue.

I think the uncertainty is what gets to me. Do I suck at poker? (Yes, probably.) Or is it just variance? And when I win is it just luck? I always find myself questioning myself. And that sucks.

Just consider your 12BI downswing a 10K breakeven stretch
that is when you win those buyins back in 10K hands

Originally Posted by iopq

Just consider your 12BI downswing a 10K breakeven stretch
that is when you win those buyins back in 10K hands

Yeah, this is my third 10+ BI downswing in the last few months, one of which happened at 100nl. So I was just recovering from those to manage breakeven when this one happened.

Sorry, I wasn't gonna whine.

I did order the 24" monitor with FTP's Wednesday and got $75 in rakeback today. And I am getting better at poker. I understand the game better than I did 6 months ago or a year ago. And even though I'm barely breakeven over the last few months at the tables, I've still profited by ~ $2,000 in rakeback and bonuses this year.

So it's all good. And I know it. And I still do look forward to playing poker sessions every night.

Originally Posted by Robb

So it's all good. And I know it. And I still do look forward to playing poker sessions every night.

lucky you, I have to force myself to do it

Originally Posted by Robb

Yeah, this is my third 10+ BI downswing in the last few months, one of which happened at 100nl. So I was just recovering from those to manage breakeven when this one happened.

dude, this kinda thing typically means you're playing at least a little poorly at least some of the time. Take this from someone with a number of 20+bi downswings this year.

Do some serious session analysis, HEM filtering, etc... this sort of thing http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...st-t87603.html
look at what happens in pots where you're calling big bets, look at your bet-fold hands and especially your check-call hands. Think about the role of fish.

understand what your biggest leaks are, and the high variance spots that are at best neutral or barely +ve EV.
I haven't read your squeeze post through yet, but do note that getting in situations where pot odds make a call of a 5-bet shove pre-flop +EV can also be translated as getting it in pre-flop as 80-20 dog... etc...

Originally Posted by Robb

And I am getting better at poker. I understand the game better than I did 6 months ago or a year ago. And even though I'm barely breakeven over the last few months at the tables, I've still profited by ~ $2,000 in rakeback and bonuses this year..

this is good and bad... understanding the game better <> playing better. I understand the game infinitely better than when i wrote my whispered words of wisdom post about nine months ago http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...om-t76292.html - but that hasn't always translated into better results.

A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. I think we move into interesting territory as we learn, understand, and start to apply new concepts (=better) but before we comprehend the full implications.

I'll be back in online poker world in a few more days, so i'll write more then. Kinda nervous cos i've decided that it's about time to play the stakes i'm rolled for. So i'll likely be writing a lot.

Qualified Iron Man Silver in 15 days (minimum possible). Learned about the "Iron Day" and "Iron Month" options where, if you're close to your level, you can use medals to continue. I've never really been where I needed that, but as I try to develop my withdrawals each month those bonuses will become more important.

Up nearly 3 BI today. Switched over 6m, played some 25nl yesterday and then 50nl to warm up. Downswing reached 16 BI's before turning around. That makes two ~ 15 BI downswings and a 20 BI downswing this year, probably 'cuz I suck at poker. But I'm just trying to keep playing as well as I can and learn more about the game.

Poker life is good. Whoever told all the 50nl 6m regs at FTP to "open up," I'm willing to kiss that guy on the mouth. Wow. What happened to the 18/15 6m nits that used to infest these stakes on Tilt? I find it hard to sit down at a table without at least two 40/25 types joining me. I sat with 2 known LAGG's last night, and another joined right away. Then a maniac sat down that made the 40/25 guys seem like nits. I made over 2 BI on that table for the 10 minutes the "everyone plays every hand" fun lasted.

And trust me, I'm not complaining. They aren't good LAGG's. They really suck postflop, so the wide open range is just spew heavy. I don't know what Stox vid pro suggested opening any two as long as they're sooted, but God bless him.

I'm also on the verge of my poker theorem. I've been doing a lot of maths like the Squeeze Maths above, working on 4b'ing light, 3b'ing light. I'm finding like XTR said a few posts up that mathematically and equity-wise, our opponents' range dictates a fairly narrow band of adjustments or counter-ranges. We have some room for creativity, but there is certainly a "best" proportion of raises/calls/folds that makes sense given a certain range from villain. I'm working on the math, trying to simplify into a statement of poker simplicity worthy of the name "poker theorem."

I'm also finding that, since I did the Squeeze Maths posts, I am 200% more effective at squeeze plays than I was. What I find interesting is that I was making a lot more mistakes than I realized. I was actually squeezing too rarely, and also in many of the wrong spots. So I've cleaned up the spewy spots and added a nice percentage of new and profitable spots. And it's really made a difference in my 6m results.

One problem I found is that I was attacking TAGG's in spots where their PFR range was simply too narrow. Now, I estimate their continuing ranges, then calculate back to a PFR needed for the squeeze to be profitable. If the villain's PFR is high enough, I squeeze with any legitimate hand. But I'm staying out of trouble even with "premium" light squeezing hands because I'm very focused on profitable ranges. I found that most LAGG's often possess a very inefficient and exploitable bundle of "play-back" hands relative to their PFR range, even the "maniacal" LAGG's are good candidates for a squeeze if your willing to sufficiently adjust your own ranges.

One break through I realized - finally - is that when we "open up" our stealing percentage in the CO, for example, we're very exploitable if we don't also widen our 4b/call ranges when Villain starts 3b'ing us light. We can't adjust one part of our playing range in isolation, or our proportion gets very unbalanced and exploitable. If we adjust all the pieces of our ranges at once, then we're much more difficult to adjust to and exploit.

I'm doing better now that I start at the top, and think: "against this BB Villain, I would be willing to 4b these hands, and flat the 3b with these hands, so I'll attempt to steal with all these hands." Hero can't let his steal range get too far out ahead of his continuation range (unless the villains really suck and can't adjust at all effectively).