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OK, I was reading Danny's (ISF's) and Max's suited aces blog. (I won't link to it, but it ain't hard to find.) They both play HU for mega stakes, and Max had an interesting post about a well known HU cash player who got crushed during a foray into $5k HU SnG's. Max suggested that successful HU cash players generally get pwn'd by the HU SnG regs from much lower down the poker food chain, and offered sharkoscope as a way to find evidence of this. So why is that? Max did not give many details which is his right - he does earn a living from his poker knowledge, and spent time and effort and money getting it, so why give it away? But we may be able to read between the lines. Here's what he did say:
 Originally Posted by Max at suited-aces.com
Even having a cash background I have a hard time figuring it out, but I do have some theories:
- The theoretically optimal strategy of deep cash game play and shallow hu sng is totally different. To make it worse for cash players, optimal hu sng play looks retarded to them. Because of this, they’re unwilling to be open minded about correct strategy and struggle. Even when playing the very best players, they assume that what the best players are doing can not be right.
- Cash players don’t understand game theory very well. HU sngs (in my opinion) are a very theoretical game. In cash, you can overcome a lot of theory flaws by raw poker. Now I’m not saying all cash players are bad at this I’m just guessing hu sng players are better. However, I’ll admit that it’s possible point 1 is the reason it seems that way.
- They think all they need to do is learn the 20bb and under preflop math and they’ll win. Although preflop math against a competent player is important, I think cash players assume that it’s all they need to figure out. In reality, they need to figure out 60bb-30bb stack play and postflop play much much more.
Anyone else have any theories?
I certainly don't know anything about nosebleed stakes, but I've been thinking about this. HU poker is a big card game with small ball lines. Because so many combos are live preflop, we end up playing small ball with big hands. It's almost impossible to get 3 streets of value out of TPTK or better, though we try. In position, we try some "check behind" lines even with our premium hands. Everything gets played slower because of the sheer magnitude of the junk in every range.
Edit: I wrote the stuff below, then re-wrote the above paragraph to make the whole post more coherent.
What's the key difference between HU poker and 6m (or FR)? HU poker is a post flop game, while 6m is a preflop game: 3betting light, stealing ranges, restealing, 4betting. You need a premium hand, especially in FR but also in 6m. HU poker is about two guys with trash bluffing each other, and reading the game post flop.
Almost any preflop strategy can work at the nano's, as long as you aren't shoveling every hand in the dark. You can limp, limp/3b, flat a ton of hands, PFR > 90%, whatever you like. As long as you read the postflop game better, you can win with it.
Now, it's not exactly true that 6m is a preflop game. More correctly, it's a game where preflop ranges matter. In HU, preflop ranges are often "NE2 will do!" You will bump into players who limp/call with every hand. In HU, it's the flop ranges that matter. Sure, you use whatever you can to start narrowing things down, but what their bets mean is vital: big, small, fast, slow, flop texture. The board and the betting are the key indicators HU, not the preflop ranges.
Here's the interesting thing: at HU SnG's, you begin to infer how a player will deal with flush draws by watching how they react to paired boards, and you'll have an idea how they will react to c/r's by noting how often, and on what kinds of boards/action they c/r you. Every solid read can and should spider web out into several more reads, and after two or three solid reads we can have a entirely accurate sense of how villain will react to most post flop scenarios. We don't have to c/r the turn to know how those dominoes will fall. We guess the patterns long before we leverage them.
So what the heck does all this have to do with high stakes HU cash pros sucking at HU SnG's?
I'm not sure, but this is part of it, I think. Since post flop is the crucial playing field, and since everyone's playing trash hands aggressively, big cards have even more value and small cards have even less.
Consider a hand like 65s. You can play this in a FR cash game for two reasons. You have deception working for you, and the stacks are usually deep enough that you can play several streets, even if one street gets raised. At HU, 65s is a playable hand, but it has less deception and shallow stacks that kill off its multi-street maneuvering. (Some would suggest the shallowness kills off implied odds, but since any hand can flop big and win the tourney, and since 65s can flop pretty big, it's actually wrong to say there's not enough implied odds. Winning the tourney's some pretty nice implications.)
In HU SnG's, on the other hand, we can play more passively oop, for a couple of reasons. First, the shallowness forces the ip PFR to bet smaller, more 1/2 psb rather than full psb's. Second, it's more difficult to bet every street, and impossible to bet/raise every street without getting it all in. Third, overcards are vital, even cards that just bigger than SOME of the board.
Example, QT on a K96 board is great. Villain could easily have raised preflop and cbet the flop with A9, A6, Ax + air, Kx + air, 9x and 6x. Literally dozens of combo of junk hands that now have value. You'll know soon enough if villain has Kx, since he'll play it like the nuts. Often (at the nanos), you can tell by his cbet sizing whether he's got TPGK. In our example, Villain has the 4 J's, 3 Q's and 3 T's as outs, or a 20% chance of improving on each street. Any BDFD outs just make the situation better if the board gets suited, since Hero expects to win a kicker battle if both players show down a flush (even with the T, though more so with the Q).
Also, there's a feature of HU that is extremely interesting that we don't see much at other games: counterfeiting. Suppose villain has 76s and cbets in our example. Any of the 3 K's or 3 9's really suck for him since now the board has 3 outs to double pair on the river, which gives Hero a few additional outs.
"Really, Robb?" you're asking. You're worried about double-paired-boards-on-the-river outs? You bet I am. Since at FR and even 6m, we almost never play 2nd and 3rd pair hands (and correctly so, since the average winning hand is better), we cash players undervalue big cards in HU.
Max said to one of the replies to his post that "station" play is reasonably correct post flop. This is the part that feels "retarded," I'm guessing, to most HU cash players. With deep stacks, we can run mulit-street bluffs which become effective because of multi-street value betting on TPTK hands that punish station play. In HU SnG's, almost all your post flop lines are "small ball." Very rarely do you want to cbet and then bet the turn. You miss the flop completely 2/3's of the time, and have something like J8o. You make a couple of small bets, but you're willing to check behind a lot. And because this happens so much, when you merge ranges, you have a predominantly small ball game, with big card hands and small ball lines sort of "forced" on you.
Wondering if that makes sense to y'all...
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