Operation Winning is a Habit

Life is the shizzle. Poker - I've played 6 HUT $1's tonight and won 5. My thought: never underestimate the influence of the cards on your winnings. Like to think I'm awesome, but...

Here's a hand I've been thinking over. Villain is TAGG standard but a bit too passive post.

No Limit Holdem Tournament
2 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$1 + $0.10 Heads Up Sit & Go

Stacks:
SB (805)
Hero (BB) (2,195)

Blinds: 20/40

Pre-Flop: (60, 2 players) Hero is BB 7 A
SB raises to 200, 160 to Hero (2155)?

This raise is larger than his standard 2x open - he uses 3x sometimes, too. Options: Fold, Call or Raise.

Fold: Pluses - Small pot, don't give away any of commanding chip lead when likely behind. Minuses - I've noted a big bet / small hand trend, but it's only a possible read at this point.

Call: Pluses - good implied odds for flop plus in position post. Minuses - no post flop leverage, likely have get it all in to get a fold, have to fold to any reasonable donk bet on the flop.

Raise: Pluses - chance to win a big pot right away, probably not much worse than 40-60 if called. Minuses - can easily give away the chip lead.

I think (after some calculating) this hand hits the flop about 40% of the time, but when it misses it misses comprehensively. Of the 40% it's about 1/3 Axx, 1/3 7xx and 1/3 FD's.

Easy fold, now that I analyze it. Any thoughts appreciated, tho.

Life update - I finished a great family room in our basement this Fall, and I got promoted early to full professor a couple months back. My Summer Honors program has (so far) survived the budget crisis (SummerHonors.org), and the twins turn 7 next week - two birthday parties in two days.

And I'm up just over $2 in HUT's, after losing 2 of 3 $1 tourneys last night and winning a handful tonight. Hope everyone is good. I'll be trolling around a bit, checking slevin's blog and generally seeing what FTR is up to.