Operation Winning is a Habit

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

firstly, thanks for doing this robb.

No problem! Thought of your post when I played this hand, as I was spinning through the combos on hyper-speed trying my best to narrow this range.

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

I reckon villain calls PF with JJ-22,AQo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AQs-A3s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s

then calls Flop and Turn w/ the other T (KTs,QTs,JTs,KTo,QTo,JTo,T9o),any boat (JJ,99-22) and prolly any A (AQs-A3s,AQo-A8o).

I think your preflop range is excellent. We could argue over a combo here or there, but what's the point? His range is wide and includes exactly the types of hands you're talking about.

I think there are a few more Aces in his range than you listed, and I think he'll call down with all of them. I doubt he's shoveling with them on the river. In my opinion his shovel hands are Tx, QQ+, and maybe A3, A4, 99 or 88.

The awesome thing is that he can't have most of them. As you mentioned, preflop makes the QQ+ less likely. I think QQ is in his flatting range, but not AA or KK. We can't eliminate them entirely, but we discount them heavily. Tx hands are eliminated in two ways. First, it's incredibly rare to flop quads, though most of us have done it. The Tx hands are a huge part of his initial calling range, but shrink massively after we see the flop. And for me, the turn really rules out the rest of them.

On the turn: I thought about this bet quite a lot. I decided to bet small hoping he'll raise with a Tx hand. He's capable of it. I don't think this entirely rules of Tx, but it made me feel like I was ahead heading for the river.

On the river: how much do you trust your turn read? It's rare that the river can't change anything, so the turn is money - or its wrong. I think Villain has Ax, small/med pp's here mostly. But I don't think he's stacking off with them. And he's certainly stacking off with the nuts or QQ+.

So pot control is perfect - get some chips in to get value from the range that will call down, and fold if he aggresses.