Some math on the A5cc hand:

Case 1: We jam - Need him to fold 70%


Board: Jc 2h 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 06.875% 06.87% 00.00% 1157 0.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 93.125% 93.13% 00.00% 15673 0.00 { 77, 22, AJs, KcJc, KdJd, KhJh, AJo }

This is my perceived equity that we have vs his shove calling range

When he folds X%, we are up $74

When he calls (1-X)%: -0.93125*($196) + 0.0687($196+8)
: -168.51

74X - 168.51(1-X) = 0
242.51x = 168.51
x = 0.69

So we need him to fold here almost 70% of the time to be profitable. Thats huge!


Case 2: 3bet small to around $75, need him to fold 52%

Folds X: +74

Doesn't fold and jams or peels and we give up (1-X): we lose 75+7: $82

74x - (1-x)*82 = 0
74x+82x = 82
x = 0.52

Need him to fold 52%