Recovery Mode

Hey everyone, it's been a long time since I've had an operation thread here. Things have gone really well since I completed Operation 100k last year in general and I'm really happy with the progress that that spurned.

However just recently I seem to have lost a lot of focus. I downswonged pretty hard and fast at 2k and 1kNL (well it was only like €12k but it felt pretty huge) and I've been break even for the last 20k hands since then. I've hardly played at all this month because I feel kinda burned out or something and when I have played the quality has been lacking.

Anyway, my short term confidence is kinda shot at the moment so I've decided to drop down all the way to 200NL for a few k hands until I can get my mojo back.

So there's 2 parts to this:
1) Win 20 buy ins at 200NL.
2) Win 20 buy ins at 400NL.

Then when I've done that I'll start playing 1kNL again I suppose.

As usual I'll keep posting hands and graphs and stats etc. as I go along.
Wish me luck!!!

nice! gl

I lost 4.5 BIs at 200NL so I know how you feel... I even tried out CAP NL today just to try to get some confidence back, but I got coolered/bad beat instead

take a few more days off from poker if u can afford it, and let the desire to play return a bit. then when you return and start playing 200NL, you will want to play more and as a result you will be more focused. the burdening mindset of lowered confidence also gets time to diminish if you take a little break after a rough patch.


GL irish, enjoy the cards!

playing PLO will quickly make you not blink at a 6-12 BI "swing" and may turn out to be fun

your last op was cool.
Best of luck with this one

Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill

take a few more days off from poker if u can afford it, and let the desire to play return a bit. then when you return and start playing 200NL, you will want to play more and as a result you will be more focused. the burdening mindset of lowered confidence also gets time to diminish if you take a little break after a rough patch.

GL irish, enjoy the cards!

Yeah I agree with all this for sure. That's why I've practically taken this whole month off so far. That's the longest break I've taken from poker in like a year I think. It's about time I got back to it. I realise I can't force the comeback as much as I'd like to try but I think I'm ready. Hopefully this operation will help focus me.

Originally Posted by drmcboy

playing PLO will quickly make you not blink at a 6-12 BI "swing" and may turn out to be fun

lol I'd have to move down to 50Nl to avoid the heart attack.

Originally Posted by daven

your last op was cool.
Best of luck with this one

Thanks dood.

Well we didn't get off to a very good start today. At one point today there was only like 6 tables of 1/2 and about 20 of 2/4 so I just played the later instead of the former and ended off down €900. I dropped a buy in at 1/2 this morning also. I think I played almost perfectly though so meh I'm ok with it. I've been really tilted when I've played recently but I didn't feel tilty at all today so that's a good thing I suppose. Hopefully tomorrow is better.

I'll throw up a hand or two in the morning when I'm refreshed.

i agree take a couple day's off once your away from poker for a lil while next thing u know u want to play and you will have better focus

Originally Posted by iopq

I lost 4.5 BIs at 200NL so I know how you feel...

Gee, how did you ever cope with that??

Actually here's a hand while I'm here.

Villain is 23/17/3. I have a note that he doesn't VB very thin and also a note that he checked back the turn on a wet board with an overpair in position.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($162.98)
CO ($403.40)
BTN ($475.40)
Hero (SB) ($428.90)
BB ($1028.00)

Pre-flop: ($6, 5 players) Hero is SB
1 fold, CO raises to $14, 1 fold, Hero calls $12, 1 fold

Flop: ($32, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $24, Hero calls $24

Turn: ($80, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $64, Hero calls $64


So he checks back his overpairs and TPGK type hands on the turn. He also checks back half of his sets to try to fill up. He also bets all his flushes and sometimes when he has the naked As and he bets AQ without a spade. I think this sounds about right.

Code:

Board: Qd 9s 7s 3s
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	32.343%  	32.34% 	00.00% 	           370 	        0.00   { QcJs }
Hand 1: 	67.657%  	67.66% 	00.00% 	           774 	        0.00   { QQ, 99, AsKs, AsQs, AsTs, As8s, As6s, As5s, KsTs, QsTs, JTs, Ts8s, 8s6s, 6s5s, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, AcQd, AcQh, AdQc, AdQh, AhQc, AhQd, AsJc, AsJd, AsJh }

I reckon I can play fairly well on most rivers because I expect him to play rather honestly so I don't have much in the way of reverse implied odds. I need 31% equity to make a straight call good here and I have about 32% according to pokerstove so my call here is fine it seems.

River: ($208, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $164, Hero folds

His range is pretty similar on the river as on the turn I think. So my fold is good.

Code:

Board: Qd 9s 7s 3s Ac
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	10.714%  	10.71% 	00.00% 	             3 	        0.00   { QcJs }
Hand 1: 	89.286%  	89.29% 	00.00% 	            25 	        0.00   { AA, QQ, 99, AsKs, AsQs, AsTs, As8s, As6s, As5s, KsTs, QsTs, JTs, Ts8s, 8s6s, 6s5s, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, AcQd, AcQh, AdQc, AdQh, AhQc, AhQd, AsJc, AsJd, AsJh }

Final Pot: $372

CO wins $369 ( won +$103 )
Hero lost -$102

Damn it's tough to stay at the top of the page in Blogs and Operations these days! :P

Here's another hand from yesterday. On the river I called because I thought that he would have bet all his 8= out draws on the turn to try to take down the pot when he had good FE and good PE. There was 2 things I didn't consider though which change things a lot;

1) I didn't have any read on him at all. I don't think it's correct for me to assume that a random and probably fishy 2/4 player will bet this turn here with all his draws.
2) For him to c/c the turn here he can only ever have 2 types of hands, hands that are weak showdown value hands on this river (9x, Jx 88 etc) and hands which make completed draw on this river (QT, clubs). Assuming he will never turn a marginal made hand into a bluff (which most players wont) then his range on this river is effectively straights, flushes and maaaybe 8T or KJ.

I don't wanna bother pokerstoving this right now but I think that when I consider these 2 points the river becomes a fold.
$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($697.30)
Hero (CO) ($513.10)
BTN ($574.00)
SB ($214.70)
BB ($372.00)

Pre-flop: ($6, 5 players) Hero is CO
UTG calls $4, Hero raises to $18, 3 folds, UTG calls $14

Flop: ($42, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($42, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $32, UTG calls $32

River: ($106, 2 players)
UTG bets $79.50, $79.50 to Hero ($463.10)?

Originally Posted by TonyB73

Originally Posted by iopq

I lost 4.5 BIs at 200NL so I know how you feel...

Gee, how did you ever cope with that??

well technically $12K is 6BI at 10/20
but it's like "... holy shit I'm 12K poorer now"
that doesn't happen at the micros

so I wish Irisheyes luck

what do you think about betting pot on the turn? It looks life a bluff given that you checked flop behind - fish think omg he has AK - so he;s calling the same range as called $32, plus building the pot on a drawy board, etc.

As played river I think KJ is the bottom of his range so folding isn't a terrible idea. I probably call though, which is why i think that it's likely bad

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

I downswonged pretty hard and fast at 2k and 1kNL (well it was only like €12k but it felt pretty huge)

I don't get it... isn't this like nothing??

I wouldn't worry too much about 15-20 buyin downswings at 5/10+, where the games are mega high variance. But it's cool that you have the discipline to drop down and re-focus.

GL GL

Originally Posted by griffey24

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

I downswonged pretty hard and fast at 2k and 1kNL (well it was only like €12k but it felt pretty huge)

I don't get it... isn't this like nothing??

I wouldn't worry too much about 15-20 buyin downswings at 5/10+, where the games are mega high variance. But it's cool that you have the discipline to drop down and re-focus.

GL GL

It was 1.5 buys at 10/20, 10 at 5/10. Then I had a little recovery before losing like 10 buys at 2/4, now I've dropped to 1/2 and I'm getting crushed there.

I realise I'm being a whiny bitch about this but it's really frustrating because it's not like I'm getting tons of bad beats. It feels like EVERY decision I make is wrong. Every time I 4bet I get shoved on, every time I 3bet I get 4bet, every time I cbet I get c/r, every time I bet the turn I get raised. My red line is PLUMMETING. Usually it goes downwards but nothing like this. I feel like absolutely EVERYTHING I thought I knew about poker was just wrong EVERY hand I play, EVERY day of the week.

Here is graph of downswing:



Thanks for listening.

[/overly dramatic emo-bitch rant]

Originally Posted by daven

what do you think about betting pot on the turn? It looks life a bluff given that you checked flop behind - fish think omg he has AK - so he;s calling the same range as called $32,

Em I'm not so sure this is true. I think if he has 88 or 9x then he will call $32 but he might fold if you bet $40. idk maybe you think different. Basically we need to bet as big as we think he will call with those hands. If you think he will call pot then go for it.

I think we've discussed this before, but that red line is madness! I wonder whats causing your non-showdown to be so low?

It's hard for me to relate, cause my red line is always sky high and my blue line always sucks ass.

I wonder if you're not barreling enough or something. I read a good post on 2+2 about the non-showdown line and how people who have a low red line could be due to not value betting thin enough and not bluff catching enough.

Suppose you make a thin river value bet when checked to, and there's like an 80% chance he'll fold. A slim chance that he'll call and you're beat and a slim chance he'll call and you'll win. If you're checking back these spots and winning, then the wins go to your showdown winnings. If you're betting in these spots and 80% of the time he folds, then the wins go to your non-showdown winnings.

Similarly with bluff catching. If you don't bluff catch, then you lose the pot and your non-showdown winnings go negative. If you do bluff catch, then your non-showdowns don't change for the hand, and your showdowns either go up or down.

Just a couple things that seemingly relate to non-showdown winnings, that most ppl don't think about.

that red line is sick
you must be running bad redline-wise
but your blue line is also break-even for 14K hands

I'm pretty sure you just ran bad, just get back on your feet when you feel confident

Interested to hear your thoughts on 200nl in general after dropping back.

You seem to have a very range focused game and review style (a good thing), which suggests you're either:

a) Running bad and hitting the top of ranges a lot, or
b) Getting your ranges wrong.

Not very useful comment, but take what you will. Do you think you've become more passive recently? Not unusual when things seem bad for people to turn more passive which ruins the old red line.

Originally Posted by griffey24

I think we've discussed this before, but that red line is madness! I wonder whats causing your non-showdown to be so low?

It's hard for me to relate, cause my red line is always sky high and my blue line always sucks ass.

I wonder if you're not barreling enough or something. I read a good post on 2+2 about the non-showdown line and how people who have a low red line could be due to not value betting thin enough and not bluff catching enough.

Suppose you make a thin river value bet when checked to, and there's like an 80% chance he'll fold. A slim chance that he'll call and you're beat and a slim chance he'll call and you'll win. If you're checking back these spots and winning, then the wins go to your showdown winnings. If you're betting in these spots and 80% of the time he folds, then the wins go to your non-showdown winnings.

Yeah I heard this before. It could be that I'm not double and triple barrelling enough. I'm always on the look out for good spots and I'm not afraid to fire at them so I really have no idea where to find more spots to fire. Similarly with VBing thin, I feel like I bet thinner than anyone else I play with.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Similarly with bluff catching. If you don't bluff catch, then you lose the pot and your non-showdown winnings go negative. If you do bluff catch, then your non-showdowns don't change for the hand, and your showdowns either go up or down.

Just a couple things that seemingly relate to non-showdown winnings, that most ppl don't think about.

This could definitely be something to do with it all right.

Would it be ok if I sweated you playing sometime on teamviewer? You don't even have to talk I just want to look for spots where you bet or call where I would fold. I'll MSN you later I suppose.

Thanks for the post.

Originally Posted by iopq

that red line is sick
you must be running bad redline-wise
but your blue line is also break-even for 14K hands

Yeah this is the thing. My redline is usually down a lot but for every 1bb that my redline goes negative, my blue line usually goes up by 1.7 or 1.8bb's or something and the difference is the winrate obv. Right now it's like BE for 14k hands, then it jumps up a bit and then it's BE for another 12k hands. That's why I'm holding on the the sliver of hope that I'm just running like death.

Originally Posted by bjsaust

Interested to hear your thoughts on 200nl in general after dropping back.

You seem to have a very range focused game and review style (a good thing), which suggests you're either:

a) Running bad and hitting the top of ranges a lot, or
b) Getting your ranges wrong.

Not very useful comment, but take what you will. Do you think you've become more passive recently? Not unusual when things seem bad for people to turn more passive which ruins the old red line.

Yep this is what I think also. Hopefully it's option a rather than option b but it's really hard to know.

Since that you say it I have noticed a bit more passivity in my game recently that I've been trying to keep my eye on. It stems from my injured mentality which thinks that I'm going to get check/raised every time I make a bet so I'm worried that I may be missing a bet here and there. It's definitely there all right but I'm watching it so hopefully it won't get too bad.

For comparison, here's my lifetime graph at the site I currently play at. I have like an 8bb/100 winrate over the sample.

Yah hit me up on msn. I'm hardly there on weekdays anymore, cause I started working quasi-fulltime till the end of september. But I try to grind on weekends and stuff now!

Anyway as an update to my progress yesterday I played a bit and lost 3.5 buys, today I sat down 20 mins ago and I'm down 3.5 already.

I'm quitting for the day.

Been a few days since I posted in here. I actually had one good day where I won €700 at 2/4 but it was quickly followed by a minus 6 buy in day at 1/2 and then I'm down €1200 at 2/4 so far today. So far I'm down about 8k this month with no end in sight.

For the first time ever I actually got my green line under my red line which is quite an accomplishment given the rte my red line descends at!

Here's a hand I played bad. I need to bet/call the turn here for a multitude of reasons like

1) I might fold a pair
2) I charge KQ
3) He doesn't have that many big hands in his range
4) balance

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($419.30)
Hero (CO) ($400.00)
BTN ($39.90)
SB ($951.50)
BB ($456.40)

Pre-flop: ($6, 5 players) Hero is CO
1 fold, Hero raises to $14, 1 fold, SB calls $12, 1 fold

Flop: ($32, 2 players)
SB bets $24, Hero raises to $76, SB calls $52

Turn: ($184, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero ($310)?

oh wow I was about to respond it's a good spot to check it back because he might let us check down with his KQ, but your reasoning seems better, nh

5-6 more buyin down at 1/2 today. Here's the graph of this month so far that I posted in SHNL. 1 buy at 3/6, 10 at 2/4, the rest at 1/2.



I've no idea what is happening to my game or how I'm losing this much. I'm moving down to .50/1.

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($162.98)
CO ($403.40)
BTN ($475.40)
Hero (SB) ($428.90)
BB ($1028.00)

Pre-flop: ($6, 5 players) Hero is SB
1 fold, CO raises to $14, 1 fold, Hero calls $12, 1 fold

I see that no no one commented on this hand.

I think calling preflop here is marginal.
When I am downswinging like this, one of the first things I do is tighten up OOP.

I am a nit though so calling here might be completely standard for other people.

Anyways good luck on your operation.
I admire your discipline to be able to move down stakes!

Yeah you're right that it's not always advisable to make that call with QJ. I felt I had a good idea of how the guy plays so I'm comfortable enough with it but you're right that it's often a good idea to tighten up OOP when swonging.

Just got over a 1 month of either break even or -10kish streak at live $5/$10 (depending on how you look at it) so I feel your pain. One day I was stuck 6k and ended down 4k on the night. Big sea change in how the game plays and I've had to adapt. I feel your pain.

Down 6 buy ins at 100NL so far and 38 buys at various stakes so far this month. I'm only 4 tabling now and making a big effort to think about every hand as it happens and try to make the best play every time. I can definitely feel that this downswing is affecting my game and there are a good few places where I've played bad but overall I'm still playing reasonably well and it would be mind boggling to me if I couldn't beat .50/1.

Here's a hand where I bet too thin on the river and got shoved on. If he always calls with QJ and AJ then it's actually a good (though really thin) VB but I'm not convinced that he will.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($188.91)
CO ($36.85)
BTN ($95.00)
Hero (SB) ($99.00)
BB ($126.75)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is SB
3 folds, Hero raises to $4, BB calls $3

Flop: ($8, 2 players)
Hero bets $7, BB calls $7

Turn: ($22, 2 players)
Hero bets $18, BB calls $18

River: ($58, 2 players)
Hero bets $42, BB goes all-in $97.75, Hero folds

Final Pot: $197.75

BB wins $194.75 ( won +$68 )
Hero lost -$71

Here's 2 more hands I played bad. Don't really know what the point of posting them is but here they are anyway.

First one is me being tilty and making a bad shove over a shortstack. I spend half of every day folding to check/minraises and I got tilted and shoved on this one. It's pretty funny to be agonizing over these hands which are worth in total a preflop raise of the stakes I was playing a few weeks ago.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($30.02)
Hero (CO) ($100.00)
BTN ($160.10)
SB ($33.35)
BB ($361.03)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is CO
1 fold, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, SB calls $3, 1 fold

Flop: ($8, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6.50, SB raises to $13, Hero goes all-in $90 ...


Second hand I made a bad turn barrel against a fishy player. He's not going to fold any King and tons of the Tx hands have a gutshot or something to go along with them and lots of the gutshots that he might have folded the flop with have now picked up a pair.

River is pretty close surprisingly but I'm not sure that he will bet QJ always and his small bet size means that his range can be quite unpolarized so I don't think I can call profitably.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($24.75)
Hero (CO) ($103.15)
BTN ($96.30)
SB ($28.50)
BB ($383.53)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is CO
UTG calls $1, Hero raises to $4.50, BTN calls $4.50, 2 folds, UTG folds

Flop: ($11.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $8.50, BTN calls $8.50

Turn: ($28.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $22, BTN calls $22

River: ($72.50, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $30, Hero folds

Final Pot: $102.50

BTN wins $99.50 ( won +$34.50 )
Hero lost -$35
UTG lost -$1

JT hand - i would def bet a small amount of river so i think u bet way too big.

QJo - how on earth is this bad. seems super std vs a shorty

AJo - yea id prob give up on turn

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

JT hand - i would def bet a small amount of river so i think u bet way too big.

Yeah I distinctly remember that I didn't want to bet a small amount on the river because I was new to 100NL regs and I didn't know if they were capable of bluff shoving if I block bet this spot and I didn't want to put myself in that situation for that reason.

I think $16/f is easily better than what I did but I also think c/f is best given the info I had at the time.

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

QJo - how on earth is this bad. seems super std vs a shorty

Just don't think he ever has a worse hand when he c/min-r the flop. Draws would shove.

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

I think $16/f is easily better than what I did but I also think c/f is best given the info I had at the time.

how can we c/f JT two pair on that board? If you're c/f you're putting him exclusively on BD diamonds. I think he can get there with A2dd, A3dd, 56dd, 67dd and 78dd. Given that its bvb, I feel like he'll raise flops with some of these hands a certain % of the time, so that leaves about exactly 3.5 or so value combos raising river.

Given how many combos he might legitimately get to the river with in a BvB scenario, I don't think he has to have that high of a river bluffing frequency to potentially b/c here even.

Given your sizing, I think his bluffing frequency is waaay smaller so a fold is good, but I don't think b/c $30 or something is too bad.

edit: I also think your turn sizing is a bit too big. You want him to continue with a wide range here (second pair stuff that can make a worse two pair etc), and not polarize his range too much.

Well firstly I think you're leaving KJ out of his raising range on the river. I think he can definitely raise that if I bet weakly because he will know I never have a flush when I bet like that. All of his combos of KJ get to the river like this so that's another 6 to his raising range.

I'm wary of giving 100Nl reg any credit for being able to turn a made hand into a bluff also. Like I think if he floated 2 streets with 88 or A5 he's never shoving over a bet of $30 on the river as a bluff. He might shove 67 all right but he also might raise the flop with that some % of the time. He might shove 23 but he also folds that a lot preflop. I don't really see what other air you want to include in his river range?

I'm going to do a more deep analysis of this hand later and I'll look at all the different river lines. I'll get back to this.

I dont think Ive seen a 100nl ever do bluff with a made hand on river honestly. Even the regs!

Just played 200 hands of 100NL and lost 2 buys. Fuck me I swear I can't take much more of this bullshit.

Look at this shit



and that doesn't even include the 10k I lost at 5/10 at the end of last month. Am I just never gonna win again.

Sorry redic tilted. I'm switching the computer off.

Dude you are obv good enough to beat higher levels than 100nl. Go relax and watch a few poker videos that relate to 100nl or 200nl.

You'll turn this around dude, for suuure. I can't tell you how many mega downswings I've had. At least you have the discipline to move down accordingly, a lot of ppl (like myself) just ride out the downswing at our current limits if we're rolled for it.

dude, if you have a negative blue line you're just downswinging

Take a couple of days off. It's almost impossible to play an a-game when you're in a downswing. And if you're hitting negative variance at games you should crush and are not breaking even then your a-game is absent. Just something I've learnt this month being 20++ buyins behind on AI EV and almost being below breakeven - graph to come in a few days.

Remember that 100nl and 200nl play a lot different to higher stakes. Table selection is easy, if there isn't loads of dead money there are heaps of better tables.

Reg wars are kinda like headbutting a brick wall cos nobody will understand what you're representing.

um, dunno, like I don't feel i can give much advice on how to play poker - but maybe about sorting out some headspace. The last few posts in my op are me dealing/seething with these issues.

Originally Posted by iopq

dude, if you have a negative blue line you're just downswinging

hmmmm this isn't necessarily true. My graphs are perma huge red line and negative blue line, it depends a lot on style.

But in the case of irish, it's a little worrisome having both blue and red going down. They are often negatively correlated.

Thanks for the support guys. Sorry about the whining earlier, I snap turned off my computer and went and fixed my rocker cover gasket on my car instead of playing and I feel better now.

I've decided that I'm gonna contact Jared Tendler the mental game coach guy either today or tomorrow. Downswing or no downswing, over the last few weeks it's become abundantly clear that I have a large leak in the form of not being able to deal with running bad at all well. If I can somehow fix that problem then I guess it would at least put a rather beautiful silver lining on the whole affair.

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

I've decided that I'm gonna contact Jared Tendler the mental game coach guy either today or tomorrow. Downswing or no downswing, over the last few weeks it's become abundantly clear that I have a large leak in the form of not being able to deal with running bad at all well. If I can somehow fix that problem then I guess it would at least put a rather beautiful silver lining on the whole affair.

This is a good idea. I signed up for his coaching a year ago, and there was a longgg waitlist (like 5ish months long) so I went on that. By the time my name came around I felt like I was tilting a lot less, so I never ended up doing it. Let me know if there's still a wait, I might do this too. I have serious stop loss problems!

Some things I've learned since moving to 100NL:

Fish lines:
1) the min-bet, min-bet, big- bet bluff line. I think they do this because when they min-bet and you don't raise they think that you can't have a strong hand so they put out a huge bet on the next street to try to force a fold.

2) the small bet with top pair. They seem to bet really small with top pair a lot of the time. Like less then half pot and do it on multiple streets. For a while I kept calling with my mid pair or whatever thinking that I only needed to be ahead a small % of the time to make a call correct. You're never ahead though. I think this is like the fish version of a thin value bet.

3) the flop raise with top pair. This happens way more than at midstakes games. It's often a minraise. Just make sure toy don't fold your TPGK hands too much.

There's more but I can't think of them right now. I'll add to this later.

Thoughts on people c/c two streets, then donk a blank river?

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

Some things I've learned since moving to 100NL:

Fish lines:
1) the min-bet, min-bet, big- bet bluff line. I think they do this because when they min-bet and you don't raise they think that you can't have a strong hand so they put out a huge bet on the next street to try to force a fold.

2) the small bet with top pair. They seem to bet really small with top pair a lot of the time. Like less then half pot and do it on multiple streets. For a while I kept calling with my mid pair or whatever thinking that I only needed to be ahead a small % of the time to make a call correct. You're never ahead though. I think this is like the fish version of a thin value bet.

3) the flop raise with top pair. This happens way more than at midstakes games. It's often a minraise. Just make sure toy don't fold your TPGK hands too much.

There's more but I can't think of them right now. I'll add to this later.

yah I agree with all of these, flop minraise is top pair or something, and turn min raise or turn ck/min raise is mega scarrry

I'm not sure on the small small big bluff thing.. I feel like this is value a lot too..hmmm

Originally Posted by XTR1000

Thoughts on people c/c two streets, then donk a blank river?

If the draws miss it's a missed draw, if the draws hit than it's a hit draw.

Anyway status update. Had a good day yesterday at last. Dropped a load of money at first but then I had a crazy upswing and I ended up about €800 for the day.

Today is back to the usual shit though. Showdown winnings dived off a cliff. I'm also not really playing great at all.

Example of bad play are this hand vs a 16/12/4.5 guy:

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($152.24)
CO ($100.65)
BTN ($141.77)
Hero (SB) ($103.23)
BB ($162.10)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is SB
UTG raises to $3.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $3, 1 fold

Flop: ($8, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $6, Hero calls $6

Turn: ($20, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $13, Hero calls $13

River: ($46, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $23, Hero calls $23

Final Pot: $92
UTG shows:

UTG wins $89 ( won +$43.50 )
Hero lost -$45.50


and this one against a guy with a 3bet of 2.4%

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($170.95)
CO ($99.50)
BTN ($143.49)
SB ($77.66)
Hero (BB) ($102.50)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is BB
2 folds, BTN raises to $3.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $13, BTN goes all-in $139.99, Hero goes all-in $89.50

Flop: ($246.49, 2 players)

Turn: ($246.49, 2 players)

River: ($246.49, 2 players)

Final Pot: $246.49
BTN shows:

BTN wins $243.49 ( won +$100 )
Hero lost -$102.50

Here's another pretty significant mistake. I knew as soon as I did it too. No idea wtf I'm trying to fold out on the turn and I'm obviously gonna get c/r a lot.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($140.42)
CO ($14.38)
BTN ($113.62)
SB ($113.50)
Hero (BB) ($105.05)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is BB
3 folds, SB raises to $3, Hero raises to $10, SB calls $7

Flop: ($20, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $13.20, SB calls $13.20

Turn: ($46.40, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $26.80 ...

as you said, basically i think he wont fold much at all on turn that called a flop. id check back for the free one.

If you're running bad/playing bad, why don't you tighten up and stop 3betting this marginal hands IP for a while?

It's amazing how much easier poker is when you actually have legit hands all the time. You've already established the image for it, to warrant tightening up for a bit.

Villain is 41/21/2.2 over a small sample. No reads.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
3 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (BTN) ($209.35)
SB ($204.10)
BB ($246.40)

Pre-flop: ($3, 3 players) Hero is BTN
Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5

Flop: ($15, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $12, BB raises to $30, Hero calls $18

If his c/r all draws and all big hands then I have 47% equity against his range. Even if I take out a few of his flush draws and all his OESD's then I still have 32% which is more than enough to call his c/r. The only way I could fold would be if I thought I had massive reverse implied odds. I guess that's possible because I don't know much about him and he could be c/r-ing better top pair hands for all I know in which case my equity is worse on the flop and I'm going to play bad on loads of turns and rivers.

Turn: ($75, 2 players)
BB bets $33, Hero calls $33

Really weird bet size from him here. Not sure what to make of it exactly.

Obviously if his range is only flush draws and sets/2 pair on the flop than I can't call here. If I think he's betting small like this because he has a set/2 pair and he's scared that I have a flush then I can shove perhaps. That would make him fold 13 combinations altogether and he would have the flush with 20 combinations. So he would fold 65% of the time which is really close to what I would need him to fold for the shove to be profitable. Shoving looks really suspicious though and sure who folds sets so I don't like that line.

If I include 89 in his flop c/r and bet turn range than I have 30% equity and I need 23 to make this call. This all seems really up in the air though and I really can't have a good enough idea of his range to know what to do.

I think I'll post this hand actually.

River: ($141, 2 players)
BB bets $136,

Originally Posted by griffey24

If you're running bad/playing bad, why don't you tighten up and stop 3betting this marginal hands IP for a while?

It's amazing how much easier poker is when you actually have legit hands all the time. You've already established the image for it, to warrant tightening up for a bit.

Em I dunno I just 3bet when I feel like it's a good spot more than depending on what hand I have. That guy was folding to tons of 3bets so it's not like I'm playing bad enough to suddenly turn 3betting him IP into a non-profitable spot. I'd have to be reeeeeally bad to so that.

I am making an effort to play tighter though in general, that's something I always do when I start running bad.

Here's a kinda thin shove I made. This guy was opening wide enough and only folding to 45% of 3bets over a decent sample.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($548.85)
CO ($214.55)
BTN ($102.60)
Hero (SB) ($396.30)
BB ($233.80)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is SB
1 fold, CO raises to $7, BTN calls $7, Hero raises to $27, 1 fold, CO calls $20, BTN folds

Flop: ($63, 2 players)
Hero bets $40, CO calls $40

Turn: ($143, 2 players)
Hero bets $150 ...

He needs to fold 50% obviously if I have 0 equity when called. I conservative estimate that he will fold about 65%. It'd be a hell of a lot better if I had either $100 or $250 left on the turn rather than $150 though. I like this hand but only marginally.

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

Some things I've learned since moving to 100NL:

Fish lines:
1) the min-bet, min-bet, big- bet bluff line. I think they do this because when they min-bet and you don't raise they think that you can't have a strong hand so they put out a huge bet on the next street to try to force a fold.

2) the small bet with top pair. They seem to bet really small with top pair a lot of the time. Like less then half pot and do it on multiple streets. For a while I kept calling with my mid pair or whatever thinking that I only needed to be ahead a small % of the time to make a call correct. You're never ahead though. I think this is like the fish version of a thin value bet.

3) the flop raise with top pair. This happens way more than at midstakes games. It's often a minraise. Just make sure toy don't fold your TPGK hands too much.

There's more but I can't think of them right now. I'll add to this later.

One of the other things I've discovered is that the fish down here donk a lot more than you find at 400NL+. The reason their frequencies are higher is that they they tend to donk with top-pair type hands a lot. I guess it's because they don't know enough to realise the benefits of being polarised.

I mention this because there has been a lot of spots where I've called down with like middle pair because I assumed the villain was polarised to draws/air and sets and been shown TPNK.

i think the last hand is fine, people are floating 3bet flops with anything nowadays plus u say his 3bet call range is wide too so he has even more marginal stuff on flop.

fish donking??

In an effort to help my redline somewhat I'm going to look at some small non-SD pots I lost today.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($53.22)
Hero (CO) ($99.00)
BTN ($164.07)
SB ($100.00)
BB ($76.40)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is CO
1 fold, Hero raises to $3.50, BTN calls $3.50, 1 fold, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($11, 3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $9, BTN folds, BB raises to $18, Hero calls $9

I have enough equity to call if he check raises loads of his flushdraws, some of his 9x and all his trips+ and then a few bluffs. Thing is though, if I only get to see the turn and he shoves his full range and I fold then I should actually fold the flop (according to StoxEV calling here to try and spike is -EV to the tune of $7) . I didn't think about this at the time and I should have.

I think this type of thing where I call to see what he does on the next street could be a leak which is driving down my non-SD winnings.

Turn: ($47, 2 players)
BB bets $54, Hero folds

Villain folds to 3bet probably pretty close to 0%, opens 30% and doesn't like to fold in general.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($165.52)
CO ($100.00)
BTN ($115.62)
SB ($60.52)
Hero (BB) ($100.00)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is BB
2 folds, BTN raises to $3.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $13, BTN calls $9.50

Flop: ($26.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $14 ...

Flopzilla tells me that his range has hit this flop approx. 40% of the time. I need him to fold like 37% for this cbet to be immediately profitable. Given that my reverse implied odds are small and my hand can improve this is probably ok. One thing counting against me is that any turn card that improves my range also hits his flop calling range pretty hard so I don't have many barrel opportunities.

I do have a big question about whether I should just call preflop more often given that I know he doesn't fold much preflop or on the flop.

Overall I think this hand is ok.

Villain is the same as the hand directly above

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
4 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
CO ($164.42)
BTN ($227.72)
SB ($55.52)
Hero (BB) ($97.05)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 4 players) Hero is BB
1 fold, BTN raises to $3.50, SB calls $3, Hero calls $2.50

Flop: ($10.50, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $9, BTN calls $9, SB folds

Hand only played a few hands with this guy and in general I think that fish can't be trusted to make properly sized and regular cbets, especially on a board like this. I really don't want to see the turn free so I like this lead. I think he would raise some overpairs here to protect his hand.

Turn: ($28.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $18, BTN calls $18

Turn bet is good. I kept it small to keep as much 7x in as possible. Have to discount some of the spades in his range here since he doesn't raise.

River: ($64.50, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $31, Hero folds

lol at this. I was in a bunch of big hands at this point and I looked at it really quickly and decided that he would only bet flushes and A7 or maaaybe AJ if he floated the flop with it. I thought he would just check behind everything else. I still think that's a fairly reasonable range for him but even at that I still can't manage to find a range for him where I don't have enough equity to call this bet. I feel that c/c is >>> than b/f or b/c though because I can't ever expect him to call with 7x other than A7.

PFR is a reg, other guy is a fish

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($201.75)
CO ($275.74)
BTN ($200.00)
Hero (SB) ($198.00)
BB ($632.34)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is SB
UTG raises to $5.75, CO calls $5.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $24, 1 fold, UTG calls $18.25, CO calls $18.25

Flop: ($74, 3 players)
Hero bets $32, UTG calls $32, CO folds

Possibly bet too big here because I think $28 or so accomplishes the same as $32. It's thin enough as a bluff but I never get played back at with the fish in the pot and they don't collectivly hit the ace enough to make this immediately -EV as a cbet.

Turn: ($138, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $35, Hero folds

He makes a tiny bet here, I don't think it's ever anything other than a better hand though so the fold is fine.

vs a redic aggro reg. 3bet's 9%

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (UTG) ($238.50)
CO ($715.21)
BTN ($205.75)
SB ($106.30)
BB ($200.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $7, 3 folds, BB raises to $24, Hero calls $17

Flop: ($49, 2 players)
BB bets $30, Hero calls $30

lol at the flop. Story of my life.

I have like 50% equity here so I'm wondering if I should just shove over his cbet to make things simple. There's a load of turn cards I don't want to see. I never really fold better or get called by worse though. I imagine I have about 45% equity vs his shove calling range which isn't great. Also hit guy never in a milllion years bet/folds something like KK here. So overall yeah I guess calling is best.

Turn: ($109, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $46, BB goes all-in $146, Hero folds

lol again.

The turn is pretty whack so I guess I'd better explain where my retardedness comes from here. Watching a DrGiggy video essentially. My idea with this was to bet the turn and river to try to fold him off two pair or a set which I don't think is a terrible plan overall except for the fact that I didn't put enough thought into it to realise that the stacks aren't deep enough to accomplish anything. Other than that bet/betting is ok because

a)if I check behind it's really easy for him to play the river well and really hard for me because I turn my hand face up too much as something which can't play for stacks on this board.
b) only river card that helps me is a king so I don't really care about making sure I see the river
he doesn't usually have a King when he check the turn because my range is full of two pair type stuff he wants to get value from.

Anyway, obviously he c/shoves and that's that and I obviously played the hand terrible but I like the heart behind it.

Both guys are aggro regs

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($304.00)
Hero (CO) ($203.00)
BTN ($706.46)
SB ($224.90)
BB ($88.10)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is CO
1 fold, Hero raises to $5.50, BTN calls $5.50, SB calls $4.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($18.50, 3 players)
SB bets $13.87, Hero calls $13.87, BTN calls $13.87

No idea what his donk means but I know I don't want to raise and get it in so this is the best flop line I think.

Turn: ($60.11, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $44, BTN goes all-in $687.09, SB folds, Hero folds

Once the SB checks I figure he doesn't have a monster. The button also probably doesn't have a set or the like since he would have raised the flop. Also if one of them has Tx, which they probably do, this turn card is decent for making them want to fold it. The might call my turn bet with dominated draws too. Actually I don't like my size come to think of it, I should probably go for a smaller bet on the tuirn and shove any river to keep draws in and to make Tx call a bet before folding the river. I can credibly have a lot of Axhh and 2 pairs in my range on the turn.

Obviously though the button shoves and I fold. I like this hand though.

Final Pot: $791.20

BTN wins $788.20 ( won +$81.74 )
Hero lost -$63.37
SB lost -$19.37

Pretty standard I guess, villain is a Tag and the other guy is a mega fish. My hand isn't doing so hot on the turn vs his value oriented range.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($318.02)
CO ($251.38)
BTN ($483.27)
SB ($187.00)
Hero (BB) ($205.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is BB
1 fold, CO raises to $7, BTN calls $7, 1 fold, Hero calls $5

Flop: ($22, 3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $20, BTN calls $20, Hero calls $20

Turn: ($82, 3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $64, BTN folds, Hero folds

Final Pot: $146

CO wins $143 ( won +$52 )
BTN lost -$27
Hero lost -$27

Anyway, general flow of things update.

Downswing currently looks like this, pretty funny graph if you ask me.


Been grinding 1/2 and and .5/1 for about 25k hands now breakeven. Whatever hand I have, the flop, turn and river cards will be the worst ones in the deck for my hand. Whatever cards the villain needs will come no matter how small or big the pot or how strong my hand used to be. I struggle onwards.

I think I have a problem with my Went to SD % which may be causing my redline problems ( just fyi the redline you see in the above graph is ridiculous even for me and is unrepresentative of my normal game. Regardless of what I used to think I knew about poker I can promise you I'm not THAT bad in the long haul). My WtSD is only 23% over this years sample which may mean I'm getting bluffed a lot and folding too weakly. This could amount to a rather large problem since I play 27/23/3 with an 8% 3bet. As you can imagine, folding too much when played back at could cause some issues. Problem is I couldn't even begin to think how to solve this problem since doing so would involve me starting to stack off in all sorts of unfamiliar circumstances and trying to introduce that sort of stuff into your game is playing with fire. It's a lead all the same and I'll keep it in mind over the coming weeks.

I'm considering taking a break again. I'm reluctant though since I really feel that I'm not playing drastically terrible. I'm not playing my A game all day that's for sure, you only need to look at the hands I've posted to know that but I feel that I'm playing so low that even my C game should win. It doesn't of course. Also I've taken numerous breaks since this swing started and it's definitely feeling like if I keep taking breaks I'll be breakeven for the rest of the year. That doesn't really fit in with my plans for a 120k year. Things were looking so rosy around June when I was on track for like 200k, I guess I may forget about that!

One of the few silver linings on all this is that I am more motivated now to get better than I was when I was running really well, fuck knows why. I'm trying pretty hard which is good. Hopefully when I bounce back (if ever) I'll be a more capable player.

Jesus what a forlorn bastard I've become.

Why don't you tighten up a notch down from 27/23 if you're not running too great. Nothing wrong with playing 22/17 even for a while and makes life a ton easier.

I would raise that KJhh all day of my life in that spot. I'm not giving many ppl credit for leading a set on that particular board, and there are no two pairs. It's just as likely he has some kind of combo draw (56hh, 89hh type thing) that we killl and if he's leading Tx or something he's gonna have a headache OOP the rest of the hand.

Played today for the first time in over a week. Started off well and I won 3 buyins pretty quickly before it all turned to shit as usual and I ended up down 5. Played really well too not that it matters.