The Search for a Witty Title

I'm Mark. I'm a 19 year old New Zealander who is currently at University (studying a bunch of stuff, but essentially Computer Science and Politics) and who likes to play poker.
I've played on and off for a couple of years now, but really badly, and have only started actually learning the game since joining #FTR in about June. For the last few weeks I've been blogging on spoonitnow.com, but spoon's reorganising his site and is taking down that blog, so I'm shifting to here.

The next post will be the complete collection of the twenty or so blog posts from spoon's site. I'm putting them together in one post because they're mostly just hand history analysis and answers to exercises set by spoon rather than anything terribly interesting to read. I think there are two non-HH blog posts, which I will possibly put in separate posts.

As such, ignore the (mammothly long and boring) next post, and skip to the third (or fourth) if you actually feel like reading this blog.

Value from mid PP on A-high board.
Wed, 09 Sep 2009

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain is 42/12 over 90 hands. Note: Flopped full house, called 1/2 pot bets on flop+turn, raised river BIG.

Stacks:
UTG sch4kistar ($4.39)
UTG+1 rasti4 ($2.08)
CO gcv86 ($4.19)
BTN CardCatcher ($6.20)
SB kiwimark ($5.14)
BB primarioops ($8.70)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 6 players) kiwimark is SB
4 folds, kiwimark raises to $0.20, primarioops calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.40, 2 players)
kiwimark bets $0.25, primarioops calls $0.25

Turn: ($0.90, 2 players)
kiwimark checks, primarioops checks

River: ($0.90, 2 players)
kiwimark bets $0.40, primarioops calls $0.40


Preflop: As it's Blind vs. Blind here, I expect his calling range to be quite wide. I missed around with PokerStove and came up with the following, which seems reasonable to my untrained eye: {A2+, K2s+, K9o+ Q8s+, QTo+, J8s+, JTo+, 22+, 32s+, 64s+}



Flop: I fire out a smallish continuation bet here, to charge draws and perhaps get value from 76, 65 etc., but not too large a continuation bet as there are a lot of Ax hands in his range. I think he's very rarely raising me here, as from what I've seen of him he tries to be trappy, so most of his continuing range is his calling range, which I'm guessing to be: {44, 66, 77+, A2+, 86, 76, 65, 64, 78, 75, any two diamonds}



Turn: The turn is the reason I really posted this hand. I don't know if I should value bet here or not. The reasons for not value betting are that there are a lot of aces in his range, and so I could be value-towning myself. However there're also draws I want to protect from, and some weaker 6x type hands from which I could be getting value. I opted for a check, which would've been a check/call then a fold to a medium to largish bet on the river.



River: The ace paired, making it less likely that he was holding Ax, and the diamond draw didn't come in. Here I did decide to value bet, which is probably kinda bad as in my eyes his calling range is only: {86s, 76s, 65s, 64s, 77, 88, TT+}. A range against which my equity is only 25%. And I'm going to have to fold to a raise from: {A2+, 99, 66, 44}.



So that's my first post. Hopefully that was the right sorta thing, if not just let me know. More from me tomorrow!


T9s - Wrong Streets of Value?
Thu, 10 Sep 2009

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain is 38/5 over 21 hands. Had seen nothing too out of line. Had seen limp/fold a couple of times.

Stacks:
UTG mr aRch ($4.85)
CO kiwimark ($5.63)
BTN IvanIvanych ($1.13)
SB therdeth ($2.90)
BB pookiemike ($8.84)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 5 players) kiwimark is CO
mr aRch calls $0.05, kiwimark raises to $0.25, 2 folds, pookiemike calls $0.20, mr aRch folds

Flop: ($0.57, 2 players)
pookiemike checks, kiwimark bets $0.40, pookiemike calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.37, 2 players)
pookiemike checks, kiwimark checks

River: ($1.37, 2 players)
pookiemike bets $0.65, kiwimark folds

Final Pot: $2.02

pookiemike wins $1.93 (net +$0.63)

kiwimark lost $0.65
mr aRch lost $0.05



Preflop: We can cut the top 5% of hands out of his calling range here, as we're assuming he would have either open-raised or limp-3bet with those. We can also cut out the some of the bottom of his limping range, as I'd seen him limp/fold. So that leaves us with an approximate range of: {A5s-ATs, A5o-AQo, K8s-KJs, K9o+, Q9s+, QTo+, J9s+, JTo+, 22-88, 54s-QJs}



Flop: Here I make a continuation bet, where I should possibly have checked. In terms of made hands, I don't think there is anything worse calling me, nor anything better folding. However there are a large number of hands in his range drawing to the straight, and so it charges/gets value from these hands. I think his continuing range here is: {A9s-ATs, A9o-AQo, K9s-KJs, K9o+, Q9s+, QTo+, J9s+, JTo, 22, 87s-QJs} Against this range we have 42% equity.



Turn: When he called the flop cbet, I thought betting the turn would be a bad idea as I would essentially be betting for him. Looking back at how much of his range are drawing hands I probably should have bet this turn to gain value from these hands, and tried to check down the river.



River: Obviously a bad card, as it completes a lot of his draws, or at least gives top pair to a lot of his drawing hands. Against his range we only have 15% equity, compared to 45% if the river had bricked. Given that, I think betting and check/calling are both -EV, so I check/fold.





I guess what I learned here is that I should try and extract as much value as I can from drawing-ranges on the flop and turn, as if the river bricks I can check, since they're likely to check back their missed draws. Whereas checking the turn is essentially just allowing him to see the river for free, where even if it bricks I'm unlikely to get as much value from a bet as a bet on the turn, since most of his range will have missed.



Cheers for the comments on the last post, will try to take them on board. (This sort of hand is presumably a perfect example of where, were I OOP, a check/call on a bricked river is much better than bet/fold, as his bluffing % is much higher if I check to him).


QJo - Greed
Sat, 12 Sep 2009

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain is 64/0 over 13 hands. 100% fold to cbet up until this point.

Stacks:
UTG d00s ($5.44)
CO AreS877 ($1.97)
BTN kiwimark ($5)
SB _SoLo_TB ($1.82)
BB vioul07 ($15.91)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 5 players) kiwimark is BTN
2 folds, kiwimark raises to $0.20, _SoLo_TB calls $0.18, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.45, 2 players)
_SoLo_TB checks, kiwimark bets $0.40, _SoLo_TB calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.25, 2 players)
_SoLo_TB checks, kiwimark bets $1.20, _SoLo_TB folds

Final Pot: $2.45

kiwimark wins $2.40 (net +$0.60)

_SoLo_TB lost $0.60


Preflop: Okay, he's playing too many hands, I doubt he's positionally aware and his tendency to limp/call makes me think my raise won't have phased him much. Given that, I'm assigning him a range of: { A2+, K2s+, K5o+, Q7s+, Q9o+, J8s+, J9o+, T7s+, T90, 96s, 22+, 32s+, 65o+, 42s+}



Flop: He seems very passive, so perhaps this is a mistake, but I'm not going to take any hands out of his calling range on the basis that he would raise them, because I don't think he would (or at least I don't think I can know that he would). He has folded to a few c-bets, however, so his continuing range to my bet here is: {A8+, K2s+, K5o+, Q7s+, Q9o+, J8s+, J9o+, 87+, 86s+, 96s+,88+}, against which we have 72% equity.



Turn: Here, since a large part of his range is comprised of draws that I'm going to be unable to get value from on the river, and since he only has a PSB in his stack, I bet the pot. This was possibly too much, and I should have just bet 3/4 pot. In any event, he folded.



Perhaps it's being results oriented, but I think a slightly smaller bet on the turn could have gotten more value in this hand.



Bluffing Exercise 1
Mon, 14 Sep 2009

Bluffing Exercise 1: Villain opens {ATs+, AJo+, KQ, 66+} in MP and we call on the button with 65s. The flop comes J73r giving us a backdoor flush draw. Villain c-bets 7bb into a pot of 9bb, and we raise to 20bb. Assume he c-bets with {ATs+, AJo+, KQ, 77, JJ+} and will fold everything worse than top pair to our raise. Is this a +EV bluff?



Solution:

Edit: Spoon pointed out I made a mistake. Corrections in red.

Edit2: I also calculated for his c-bet (7bb into 9bb), not for the raise of it(20bb into 16bb). Whoops.

For the raise to be +EV, he needs to fold more than: 20/(20+16) = 20/36 = 55%



Hands he calls with: {AJ, 77, JJ+} 12+6+3+6+6+6 = 39 combinations.

There are only 3 combinations of 77, not six, so he calls with 36 combinations.

Hands he folds: {ATs, AQ+, KQ} 4+16+16+16 = 52 combinations.



He folds: 52/(39+52) = 52/91 = 57% of the time.

52/(36+52) = 52/88 = 59%

57% > 44% .'. the c-bet is +EV.

59% > 55%







I feel like I've been a bit slack with the blog over the past week, largely due to a test and an essay due in this morning. However I now don't have any assessments until the end of the month, so I will hopefully manage daily blog posts from now on!


54s - Continuation Bet and an Exercise.
Tue, 15 Sep 2009

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
3 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain is 29/8 over 38 hands.

Stacks:
BTN kiwimark ($5)
SB mercurioxxl ($5.38)
BB birvine90 ($18.02)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 3 players) kiwimark is BTN
kiwimark raises to $0.20, mercurioxxl folds, birvine90 calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.42, 2 players)
birvine90 checks, kiwimark bets $0.30, birvine90 folds

Final Pot: $0.72

kiwimark wins $0.72 (net +$0.22)

birvine90 lost $0.20


Preflop: He's raising some hands, so I can discount those, and he's also having to call my range instead of just limping in, so I'm not expecting to see 29% of hands here. I'm saying his calling range preflop is: {A2s-A9s, A9o-ATo, K8s-K9s, KTo+, Q9s, QTo+, J9s+, JTo, 22-88}



Flop: Here I missed the flop, only picked up a couple of backdoor draws. So I decided to fire out a c-bet of $0.30 into $0.42, meaning he needs to fold 42% (0.3/0.72) of the time for this to be a +EV bluff.

I think his continuing range is: {ATo, K9s, KTo+, Q9s, QTo+, J9s+, JTo, 77} (103 combinations)

Whereas he's folding: {A2s-A9s, A9o, K8s, 22-66, 88} (75 combinations)



So he folds 42% (75/178) of the time. Which I suppose made this actually a marginal spot to continuation bet bluff.





Bluffing Exercise 2>: In FR, a 15/12 opens in the HJ with {AT+, KQ, KJs, QJ, QTs, JT, 22+} to 4bb and it folds to us in the big blind with A3s. Villain will fold everything to a 3-bet to 14x except {JJ+, AK}. Is this a profitable bluff?

Solution:>

He needs to fold 70% of the time for this to be a +EV spot.

Edit: I ignored the blinds, and thought 14x meant 14x his open, not 14x the big blind. Correct math then is: 13/(13+4+1+0.5) = 13/(18.5) = 70%

Hands he folds: {AT-AQ, KQ, KJs, QJ, QTs, JTs, JTo, 22-TT} (36+16+4+16+4+4+12+51 = 143 combinations)

Hands he calls with {JJ+, AK} {21+12 = 33 combinations)

So he folds only 81% (143/176) of the time, making this a +EV c-bet


AA - Value after flush completes?
Tue, 15 Sep 2009

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain is 43/0 over 10 hands. At that point I had no reads on him.

Stacks:
UTG vryder ($7.46)
CO kiwimark ($5.12)
BTN parnishka11 ($1.92)
SB mercurioxxl ($5.36)
BB photoguy80 ($5.85)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 5 players) kiwimark is CO
1 fold, kiwimark raises to $0.20, parnishka11 calls $0.20, 1 fold, photoguy80 calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.62, 3 players)
photoguy80 checks, kiwimark bets $0.50, parnishka11 folds, photoguy80 calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.62, 2 players)
photoguy80 checks, kiwimark checks

River: ($1.62, 2 players)
photoguy80 checks, kiwimark bets $0.80, photoguy80 calls $0.80

Final Pot: $3.22
photoguy80 shows

kiwimark shows a pair of Aces


kiwimark wins $3.07 (net +$1.57)

parnishka11 lost $0.20
photoguy80 lost $1.50


Preflop: Villain in BB is never raising so his calling range is quite wide: {A2+, K7s+, K9o+, Q9+, J9+, T9, 54s+, 75s+, 22+}



Flop: Pretty standard continuation bet for value. Villain's calling range is something like (And I dunno how to express that I'm keeping in his suited hearts not all suited cards): {A3, A7, AK, Ah2h, Ah4h-Ah6h, Ah8h-AhQh, K9o+, K7s+, Qh9h+, Jh9h+, 54s-87s, 9h8h+, 75s, 8h6h, 97s, Th8h, 33, 77, 99+} Against this range I have 73% equity.



Turn: Now we have the real reason I chose this hand to post. The flush completes, which is something that is obviously going to happen often enough, and I don't know if I should still be value-betting in these situations or if I should just shut down. So I guess I'll analyse it.

I don't think I can assume that he's raising with the flush, so I think his calling range here were I to bet is only a little bit tighter than on the flop, perhaps: {33, 77, 99+, AK, Ah2h, Ah4h-Ah5h, Ah7h-AhQh, K7s+, K9o+, Qh9h+, Jh9h+, Th8h+, 9h7h+, 8h7h, 76s, 7h5h, 54s}. Against this range I still have 59% equity, so I guess a value bet was in order.

However I chose to check back the turn, so I guess his range remains largely unchanged (it's possible that he bets flushes or other hands here, but I can't be sure, so can I eliminate them from his range when he checks?)



River: He checks to me again, and so I value bet 1/2 pot, expecting his calling range to be pretty similar to what I guessed it would have been on the turn, something like: {33, 77, JJ+, AK, Ah2h, Ah4h-Ah5h, Ah7h-AhQh, K7s+, K9o+, Qh9h+, Jh9h+, Th8h+, 9h7h+, 8h7h, 76s, 7h5h, 54s} against which I have 63% equity, making it an okay spot to value bet.

Perhaps that means I should have bet more than half pot. As this goes on, I become more sure of when to bet, but bet sizing is something that I often feel unsure of.


Bluffing Exercise 3
Wed, 16 Sep 2009

Alright, I seem somehow unable to get these right first try, so let's keep practising.



Bluffing Exercise 3: It folds to us in the SB and we open to 4x and the unknown BB calls. The flop pot is 8bb and we hold As5s on a board of Kc3s4d. We bet our gutshot and our opponent calls. The turn is the Qs making the board Kc3s4dQs. This is a great card for us to fire a second barrel. We have gained a number of outs and our opponent will have a hard time calling a bet with a flopped second pair. Suppose by the turn our opponent's range is a rather pessimistic {AK, KQ, KJs, KTs, 55-QQ, 33-44, 65s}, and that he will fold without top pair, a flush draw, or an OESD to a 2/3 pot-sized bet. Is a second barrel bluff profitable here?

Solution: I'm going to work this out as if it were a pure bluff and we didn't have outs, first of all.

2/3 pot-sized bet means we need our opponent to fold 40% of the time or more.

Hands he folds: {55-JJ} (3+36 = 39 combinations)

Hands he calls with: {AK, KQ, KJs, KTs, QQ, 33-44, 65s} (9+9+3+3+3+6+3 = 36 combinations)

He folds 52% (39/75) of the time, making this a +EV second barrel.


Bluffing Exercises 4 and 5
Thu, 17 Sep 2009

Bluffing Exercise 4: The pot is some amount. How often does our opponent (heads up) need to fold if we bet exactly pot? exactly 2/3 pot? exactly 1/2 pot?



Solution:

Bet exactly pot: P/(P+P) = P/2P = 50% of the time.

Bet 2/3 pot: 2/3P / (2/3P + 3/3P) = 2/3P / 5/3P = 40% of the time.

Bet 1/2 pot: 1/2P / (1/2P + 2/2P) = 1/2P / 3/2P = 33.33% of the time.



Bluffing Exercise 5: We have a gutshot draw to the nuts on the turn. We go all-in for 2/3 pot and Villain folds exactly 40%. Are we +EV?



Yes. We need the villain to fold 40% of the time when we bet 2/3 pot, so if this were a pure bluff, it would be neither +EV nor -EV. However some percentage of the tme when he calls our bluff, we hit our out and thus still win the hand. Therefore the whole play is +EV.


AKo Continuation Bet
Fri, 18 Sep 2009

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain is 25/20 over 20 hands. Has donk lead flops with air, when OOP.

Stacks:
UTG karbursak ($4.24)
UTG+1 Hero ($6.42)
CO Breno Chuk ($6.12)
BTN dasbusch ($5.26)
SB Mr.PokerPipe ($8.36)
BB jean023 ($10)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.20, 1 fold, dasbusch calls $0.20, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.47, 2 players)
Hero bets $0.35 ...


I dunno what's up with WeakTight's hand converter, but hopefully it'll come right and I'll edit this HH later.



Preflop: Standard open. Villain's continuing range is something like: {A9-AQ, KT+, QT+, JT, 54s+, 22-QQ } against which we've got 61% equity.



Flop: Miss the flop, and decide to fire out what's a pretty standard c-bet for me. The reason I'm posting this hand is that AKo does have some showdown value, so the c-bet's possibly not automatic, but mainly because I want to see how often we need folds on this kind of board which isn't dripping wet, but does have a flush draw and a few potential gutshots.

This villain is reasonably tight though, so his continuing range is going to be something like: {AQ, Ac9c-AcJc, KQ, KcTc+, QT+, JT, 54s+, 44, 88, TT-JJ, QQ} (9+3+9+2+24+16+21+3+3+12+3 = 105 combinations)

And he's folding: {A9-AJ[exc. cc], KT+[exc. cc], 22-33, 55-77, 99} (33+22+12+18+6 = 91 combinations)

We need him to fold: 35/(35+47) = 43% of the time.

He folds: 91/(91+105) = 46% of the time.

This is therefore profitable as a pure bluff, and we also have about %30 equity against his continuing range when he calls.



Mark



Can't get Flopzilla working on Mac, but I'm sure that's solvable, and if not then I'll just borrow someone's windows box to play round with it sometime. Or get a virtual windows box running on my mac.


8h8c - Set on monotone board.
Say, 19 Sep 2009

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain is 37/8 over 86 hands. Never before 3-bet. Had been calling my raises and folding to c-bets very often.

Stacks:
UTG jcagolfer ($5.90)
UTG+1 Pythonic ($6.05)
CO Hero ($16.75)
BTN primitifcool ($4.85)
SB kiermolaev ($9.20)
BB ssj_23 ($13.35)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is CO
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, ssj_23 raises to $1.10, Hero calls $0.70

Flop: ($2.25, 2 players)
ssj_23 bets $2.20, Hero raises to $5, ssj_23 raises to $9.20, Hero goes all-in $15.65, ssj_23 goes all-in $3.05

Turn: ($30.15, 2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($30.15, 2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $26.75
Hero shows a full house, Eights full of Fours

ssj_23 shows a flush, King high


Hero wins $28.85 (net +$12.10)

ssj_23 lost $13.35


Preflop: Over 86 hands I was yet to see him 3-bet, so I suggest his 3-betting range is: {AA, KK, AK}, a range which I am clearly behind, but given he is likely to stack off with this range, and he had 17 times the raise in his stack, and I had position, I decided implied odds warranted a call.



Flop: I'd read that stacking off on a monotone board with a set was fine, but rather than just taking that for granted, and given that this is a 3-bet pot, I thought I'd analyse this hand. He fires a fair large c-bet, which I think he's doing with most of his range, however he stacks off and I think his stackoff range here consists of: {AAd, KKd, AdKd, AdK, AKd} (ie. any two cards in his range with at least one diamond)

Against this range I have 66% equity, so it seems to be a legit stackoff.


45s - Stacking off with combo draw
Sun, 20 Sep 2009

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG bucenko ($6.05)
UTG+1 Fine2Sel ($8.90)
CO Linumie ($12.20)
BTN Hero ($10)
SB Monikety ($7.80)
BB ILIESCU1964 ($13.50)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is BTN
bucenko calls $0.10, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, 1 fold, ILIESCU1964 calls $0.40, bucenko folds

Flop: ($1.15, 2 players)
ILIESCU1964 bets $1.10, Hero raises to $3, ILIESCU1964 raises to $7, Hero goes all-in $9.50 ...


Preflop: Was isolating the UTG limper who eventually folded, and the big blind, a total unknown (this was my first orbit at the table) called. Don't really know how to go about putting total unknown on ranges, but I guess I should err on the loose side, rather than ruling out possible holdings. So let his range be: {A2+, KT+, QT+, JT+, 54s+, 75s+, 22+}



Flop: Again, the reason I picked this hand to analyse (and apologies it's not a bluff) is the flop action- I believe stacking off with an OESD + FD is pretty standard, but wanted to see what kind of equity I really have. I'm saying, and I think this is reasonably pessimistic against an unknown, his stacking off range is: {AQ, 9h8h, 76s, 66, 77, QQ+}

Against which I have: 49.6% equity. So I suppose it's marginal, but not really bad.


AA - Value from a tight-ish player.
Tue, 22 Sep 2009

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain is 14/11 over 60 hands. Seemed pretty in-line.

Stacks:
CO V.A.STEEZ ($4)
BTN Kak igrat'? ($10.65)
SB x_LittleJ0HN ($12.75)
BB Hero ($12.95)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 4 players) Hero is BB
V.A.STEEZ calls $0.10, Kak igrat'? raises to $0.40, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.20, V.A.STEEZ folds, Kak igrat'? calls $0.80

Flop: ($2.55, 2 players)
Hero bets $2, Kak igrat'? raises to $4, Hero raises to $10, Kak igrat'? goes all-in $5.45

Turn: ($22, 2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($22, 2 players, 1 all-in)


Preflop: He'll be in position after calling my 3-bet, and his fold-to-3bet-PF stat was 0 for 2, so I'm saying his range is something like: {TT+, AQ+, KQs} Against this range I have 84% equity.



Flop: Now this is a pretty standard stack-off for me, the reason I'm posting it is that I'm not normally playing against players which are this tight, and so at the time I wondered it was dubious felting here, hence analysis and discussion.

I think his continuing range against my shove here is: {QQ+, AK, KQs} Against this range I only have 47% so it looks like this was close, but a bad value shove.


AKs - Broadway on monotone flop.
Thu, 24 Sep 2009

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
No stats as my tracker is messed, but he was reasonably loose preflop, and aggressive postflop (had raised my cbets in the past)

Stacks:
UTG donmclean24 ($10.25)
UTG+1 Berezovskiy7 ($14.20)
CO kochin ($10.35)
BTN tonyb562 ($13.40)
SB Hero ($10)
BB bluegrass36 ($10)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is SB
3 folds, tonyb562 raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $1, bluegrass36 calls $0.90, tonyb562 folds

Flop: ($2.30, 2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, bluegrass36 raises to $4, Hero calls $2.50

Turn: ($10.30, 2 players)
Hero checks, bluegrass36 goes all-in $5, Hero goes all-in $5 ...


Preflop: Villain had been kinda loose/passive preflop, but to flat a 3-bet, I'm suggesting his calling range is fairly tight, say: {AQ+, KQs, TT+}

Flop: I fire a continuation bet, and I suspect his calling range here is his entire preflop calling range, as everything has a piece of the flop. Against that range ( {AQ+, KQs+, TT+} ) I have 63% equity.

However he doesn't simply call, he raises my c-bet. I suspect his range here is: {AK, AhQx, TT-QQ, AhAx, KhKx} and perhaps some random holdings, since he's raised my cbet on occasion in the past. Against that range I have about 50% equity, and since there's the possibiliy he's bluffing, I just call here, to keep those bluffs in his range.



Turn: Here, when I check to him, I think he fires his entire range, against which I have 63% equity and so it's an easy call.


Excuses
Mon, 28 Sep 2009

Alright I've been a lazy motherfucker of late as far as this blog is concerned. I've been posting more on FTR and done a couple of hands of analysis there, and once my test tomorrow is out of the way you should all see more hands posted here. If not, please abuse me in IRC.


A9o - Give up on River
Wed, 30 Sep 2009

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain was 46/14 with an aggression factor of 2.0. Called PFR 34% of the time.

Stacks:
UTG ($4.20)
CO ($19.50)
Hero ($16.85)
SB ($5.90)
BB ($9.95)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is BTN
1 fold, CO calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, 2 folds, CO calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.15, 2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.80, CO calls $0.80

Turn: ($2.75, 2 players)
CO bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90

River: ($4.55, 2 players)
CO bets $7, Hero folds

Final Pot: $11.55

CO wins $11.35 (net +$2.15)

Hero lost $2.20


Preflop: Pretty standard iso for me from the button when someone's playing that many hands. Preflop calling range is {A2+, K8+, Q9s+, QTo+, J9s+, JTo, 54s+, 75s+, 22+}

Flop: Flop top pair, so of course decide to continuation bet. Continuing range here is: {Ah2h+, A4, A6, A9, AK, Kh8h+, K9, Q9s, QhTh+, 54s+, 75s-97s, Th8h, J9s, 44, 66, 99, TT+ }

Against this range we have 57% equity.



Turn: On the turn he bets into me, although quite small. Don't really know what his range for doing this is. Let's say something like: {A9, 8h7h, 8c7c, 7c5c, 44, 66, 99, TT+} Against this range I only have 23% equity but I call as I have pot odds, and because perhaps he was floating with air to try and take it away on this turn.



River: Here he overbets the pot, which I think polarises his range towards air that really wants me to fold and hands like {8h7h,8c7c, 44, 55, 99, TT} maybe also JJ+, but since all of these hands beat my A9 it's fairly irrelevant, and I fold.

AQs - Folding the River
Fri, 02 Oct 2009

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain is 16/12, with an aggression of 50%, but all only over 25 hands.

Stacks:
UTG ($11.10)
CO ($11.85)
BTN ($9.95)
SB ($9.70)
Hero ($10.80)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is BB
2 folds, BTN raises to $0.40, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.85, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.85, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80

River: ($3.45, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $3.30, Hero folds

Final Pot: $6.75

BTN wins $6.60 (net +$1.60)

Hero lost $1.70


I'm posting this hand because I feel like I should have raised somewhere, but I don't know where.

Preflop: Villain's range is probably wider than usual on the button, something like: {AT+, KJo+, KTs+, QJo+, QTs+, 54s+, 22+}

Were I to three-bet him, I think he would only continue with: {AJ+, 99} against which we only have 45% equity, and I'm skeptical he'd be calling here with AJ and 99.



Flop: Villain is likely to c-bet any flop heads up. Range is still: {AT+, KJo+, KTs+, QJo+, QTs+, 54s+, 22+} against which I have a massive 78% equity.

Had I raised here I expect villain to continue with: {AJ+, AsTs, KsTs+, QsTs+, 5s4s+, 44, 88, AA} against which I have only 41% equity, making it a poor raise.



Turn: Villain fires again, so I narrow his range to: {AT+, KsTs+, QsTs+, 5s4s+, 22, 44, 88, AA} against which I have 52% equity.



River: On the river the flush completes, villain probably tries to check his non-flushes down, but keeps firing if he hit his flush. Also might fire with two pair and sets. I have zero percent equity against that range, and so I fold. In fact the only thing I now beat from his turn range is AT.


JJ - Value.
Sat, 03 Oct 2009

Couldn't find any nice calling hands from today. This one's got a call on the river, at least.

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain is 63/5, called preflop range 58%

Stacks:
UTG ($7.30)
UTG+1 ($10.50)
CO ($9.30)
BTN ($21)
Hero ($10.15)
BB ($10)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is SB
3 folds, BTN calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, BB calls $0.40, BTN calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.50, 3 players)
Hero bets $1.20, BB folds, BTN calls $1.20

Turn: ($3.90, 2 players)
Hero bets $2.10, BTN calls $2.10

River: ($8.10, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.80, Hero calls $2.80


Preflop: Villain is very loose. Calling range about: {Any two suited, 22+, A2o+, K2o+, Q9o+, J9o+, 76o+}



Flop: Villain's continuing range after my c-bet here is: {Any two hearts, 66+, 76o+, A6-AT, K6-KT, Q9-QT, J9-JT, T9} I have 58% equity against that range.



Turn: Villain's range is almost the same since he either has a piece or is still drawing: {Any two hearts, 66+, 76o+, A7-AT, K7-KT, Q9-QT, J9-JT, T9} against which we have 62% equity.



River: Were I to bet here, I think he would only continue with {sets, AA, sevens, two pair, K8+, AT} against which I only have 28% equity. Whereas when I check here it gives him the chance to fire his missed flush and straight draws and I can call and get value from them.


Boring Day
Sun, 04 Oct 2009

Just did my review of today and while I ran pretty hot, there aren't any interesting hands to post. So I'm going to head over to FTR and analyse a hand or two in the BC, instead.


87s - Marginal calls.
Mon, 05 Oct 2009

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain is 48/9, 100% continuation bet. All this only over 25 hands, however.

Stacks:
UTG ($10)
CO ($18.50)
Hero ($11.75)
SB ($9.25)
BB ($10.10)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is BTN
1 fold, CO raises to $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.95, 2 players)
CO bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.95, 2 players)
CO bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

River: ($2.75, 2 players)
CO bets $0.80, Hero raises to $2.10, CO folds

Final Pot: $5.65

Hero wins $5.45 (net +$2.05)

CO lost $2.10


Preflop: He's raising kinda tight, but he is in the cutoff, so let's say his range is like {ATs+, AJo+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs, 98s+, 66+}



Flop: I only flop a gutshot and a backdoor flush draw, but villain is probably c-betting his entire range heads up here, and against his whole preflop range I'm getting odds to call. (Have 35% equity)



Turn: I turn a pair, and he fires again. His range for doing that is probably: {AK, AcTc+, KcTc+, QcJc, 98s-JTs, 66+} against which I have 48% equity, easily getting pot odds to call.



River: On the river I hit my gutshot, which is always nice. He fires for the third time, so his range is probably now like: {98s-JTs, 66+} which I absolutely crush. I raise for value, hoping he'll continue with sets, and sadly he folds.


Untitled
Tue, 06 Oct 2009

Tired from test and uni today. Talked briefly about some seemingly pointless but poker-related maths with renton, made an equation. Will post two hands tomorrow. Kick me if I don't.


A lack of calling
Thu, 08 Oct 2009

Each night when I review the day's hands, I just fail to find any to post. I don't seem to get into spots where I'm drawing and am having to think about calling bets. Perhaps this is somewhere I'm missing value and I should be calling behind raisers with more speculative hands. I usually only like to call if someone else has also already called. Will hunt around a bit on FTR and read what I can find, then try calling more in late position from now on.


QJs - I called some!
Fri, 09 Oct 2009

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain is 44/4 over 27 hands.

Stacks:
UTG ($16.85)
UTG+1 ($9.60)
CO ($9.70)
Hero ($10.15)
SB ($25.95)
BB ($13.50)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is BTN
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.75, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.75, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $1, Hero calls $1

River: ($3.75, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks


Preflop: Small sample, so preflop I'm going to give him a slightly wider range than 4%: {AK, AQs, KQs, 99+}. I've only got 33% equity against this range, but I'm calling for implied odds since we're both fullstacked.



Flop: On the flop I think we can assume he's firing his entire range as a continuation bet, and I have 45% equity against that range, so it's an easy call.



Turn: On the turn he fires again, probably with a range of {99, AK} (note, because we have the Qc, he can't have either KQcc or AQcc). Against that range we have 28% equity. We're getting 2.75:1 on the call, and we need to be getting 3.6:1, so I need to make an extra $1 on the river if I hit to make this a +EV call (or a bit more, since sometimes he has AcKc?). Because his range is so strong I think it'll be fairly easy to get a 1/4 pot bet paid off on the river, so it's a correct call.



River: The river sadly bricks, and he checks to me. I just checked back in the hand, but I could possibly have bluffed here. He has 16 combinations of AK which he would fold, and 30 combinations of pocket pairs which he would call with. So he's folding 35% of the time. 0.35 = x/(x+3.75), x = 2.02, so if I think I can get him to fold AK to a bet of less than $2, that would be a +EV bluff. I'm pretty sure he would've folded AK in this spot to a $1.50 bet, so I guess that would've been the correct play. Isn't learning fun.


87o - River Shove
Mon, 12 Oct 2009


$0.1/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain was 11/8, 67% aggression.

Stacks:
CO ($6.80)
Hero ($51.45)
SB ($45.40)
BB ($41)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 4 players) Hero is BTN
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.75, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.25, SB calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.25, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.25, SB calls $3.25

River: ($10.75, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7.50, SB goes all-in $40.15, $32.65 to Hero ($38.7)?


I think I butchered this one fairly hard. Anyway:

Preflop: He's pretty tight. Range is like {AJs+, AQo+, KQs, 76s+, 22+}



Flop: We flop gin, obviously, and lead out. He calls. He might be thinking my range is mostly broadways and that I've missed and am bluffing, so I don't like to eliminate anything from his holdings yet.



Turn: Turn pairs the board, which isn't great, but we still have a straight, so we bet again. He flats, and I think his range is something like: {AhJh+, KhQh, 76s-T9s, JhTh-QhJh, 55+} against which we have 75% equity so it's an esay value bet.



River: River comes in, I bet, he shoves. I think his range for shoving is just straights and boats {55-99, 98s, 87s}, against which I have 23% equity. Which means I'd need to be getting more than 3:1 pot odds to call, and I'm getitng like 1.8:1 which means it's a fold.

So that leads me to think checking behind would be best, as I don't think I'm getting value from much of his range that I beat (would really only be lone 9's, of which he only has 4 combos.).


44 - Facing Flop Shove
Thu, 15 Oct 2009

$0.1/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain was 17/0, but I only had 13 hands on him.

Stacks:
UTG ($24.85)
UTG+1 ($25.35)
CO ($25.25)
Hero ($47.70)
SB ($24.40)
BB ($54.35)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is BTN
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, SB calls $0.90, 1 fold

Flop: ($3.25, 3 players)
SB bets $1.50, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $5.50, SB goes all-in $23.40, $17.9 to Hero ($41.2)?


Preflop: UTG+1 was fairly tight, so I called preflop since it seemed a good spot to setmine. SB called, with a range of something like: {AJs+, AQo+, KJs+, 54s+, 75s+, 22+}



Flop: I flop great, and the small blind leads out 'causing UTG+1 to fold. It's a draw-heavy board so I raise my set, expecting his continuing range to be: {87s-98s, Td9d+, 75s-T8s, Jd9d+, AdJd, 44, 66, 88, 99+} against which I have 74% equity.

However rather than just calling, SB shoves all-in, and I have to decide whether or not to call. I think his range for shoving here is: {8d7d-9d8d, 75s, 9d7d-Td8d, 44, 66, 88, JJ+} against which I have like 66% equity, so it's a very easy call. For some reason while at the table I thought that I would see a higher set a lot of the time.


Some Math
Fri, 16 Oct 2009

See next post in thread

KQs - Turn Semi-Bluff
Wed, 21 Oct 2009

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain was 27/7 over 30 hands

Stacks:
UTG jfryfgm ($24.65)
CO mcg197 ($29.20)
BTN Hero ($31.30)
SB junior344 ($21.05)
BB jagboyz ($51.25)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 5 players) Hero is BTN
jfryfgm raises to $0.75, [color=#777777:10a3e80d07][i:1

Some Math
Fri, 16 Oct 2009

The Back Story

So in IRC today there was some discussion on whether you could shove with less than 50% equity and it could be a +EV play, even if you had no fold equity. This sounded rather wrong, but there was talk of a calculated over at Deuces Cracked called "The Dude" that did these sorts of calculations so I thought I'd check it out.

Lo and behold, when I plugged the numbers in, I found that if:

There is $5 dead money in the pot. (blinds are always going to fold, or something?)

Hero and Villain have $100 effective stacks

Villain bets $16

Hero shoves, and has only 49% equity against villain's calling range.

...then the calculator informs me I need no fold equity at all to make this a +EV play.



The Problem

Now, this seems to make sense as with the dead money in the pot we stand to gain more than we stand to lose. However it also seems very counter-intuitive to be putting more money into a pot with less than 50% equity.



The Math

So I changed the situation somewhat to assume that there was no more betting to come after this (if this assumption changes something and makes the below math invalid, somebody please let me know!) and came up with the following math:

0.51 * -100 = -51 (we're risking 100, and lose 51% of the time)

0.49 * (5+16+84) = 51.45 (we win the villain's stack and the dead money 49% of the time)

EV = 51.45-51 = $0.45

It is indeed +EV. However, let's look at if we had just called the villain's $16 bet instead of shoving over it. (Note: Since villain has a FE of 0 to a shove, our equity against his betting range here is the same as against his shove-calling range, so 49%)

0.51 * -16 = -8 (we lose our call 51% of the time)

0.49 * (5+16) = 10.29 (we win the villain's bet and the dead money 49% of the time)

EV = 10.29 - 8 = $2.13



So we can see that while both plays are technically +EV, calling here is vastly superior to raising.



The Bonus math: Where does that EV go when we shove?

$0.45 - $2.13 = $-1.68 (the EV we lose when we shove)

$84 = the amount we're shoving, not including the calling of villain's bet.

(0.51 * -84) + (0.49 * 84) = $-1.68

So we can see that in fact shoving over isn't a plus EV play, it's just that when we shove we make enough back in EV on the call of the villain's $16 that the whole play becomes +EV, although not optimal.



A step back and a step forward
Wed, 21 Oct 2009

I'm moving out of home next year, which means I'm going to have to pay rent and for food on top of my current expenses (read: beer and coffee). I'm a student, so the government will loan me money each week, which covers rent and food but not much else. Life in New Zealand is fairly cheap, so I decided a couple of weeks ago that if I can make and withdraw one buy-in at 25NL per week, then that should be enough to cover the rest of my costs. This also has the advantage that I'm not really putting much pressure on myself or on poker as my essentials are already covered by student loan- if I have a bad week of poker then it just means no going out that Saturday night.

University, and therefore student loan, doesn't start here until March, so from November till March I'll be covering all of my beer/coffee expenses without student loan, and from January onwards I'll also have to cover rent/food. I've enough money saved that divided over those nine weeks it basically amounts to the same as student loan, so no worries there, that just means that from November I have to be making and withdrawing one 25NL buy-in per week and I'm set.

However I had a period of run-good and got greedy, and decided about a week or two ago that I could live off of this saved money from now until January, not withdrawing anything from my bankroll and thus grind my way to 50NL by Jan 1st, and live off of that. That would mean that unlike in the first scenario I would need to be making some money from poker each week, rather than money from poker just going towards beer and coffee. Cue pressure, cue downswing.



Anyway, the stupidity of this choice only really hit me today, which is why I'm blogging about it now. I posted a hand in IRC and asked a fairly arbitrary question. Spoon's response, something along the lines of "the root of the problem here is you haven't put villain on a range yet" really hit home how far back into bad habits I've slipped, with my goal of hitting the bankroll for 50NL by the end of the year.

I play 500 hands of 25NL every day (750 on weekends) on two tables, which takes me about 2.5 hours. I review the big wins and losses of my days, and maybe analyse a hand I'm not sure about if I can be bothered. I don't do any other poker-related learning. Suddenly I realise I've been telling myself that playing and getting the hands in has to come before study and learning, and there'll be plenty of time for study once I've reached 50NL, I just need to get there.



So anyway, the point if this long post, as much as for posterity (can you say that when I mean I'm writing it for me in the future, rather than others? I'm not quite so arrogant as to suggest the latter), is that now that I've stepped back and identified some of my bad habits and thought processes, it's time to take a step forward and fix them.
Two and a half hours of play-time is absolutely fine, given that I have no other commitments in my life aside from a bit of study for my exams coming up (and after November 7th, none whatsoever), so I don't think I need to cut that down for the sake of study time, I think I can just add study time. From experience, to follow through on this ambition I'm actually going to need a schedule of sorts. My current plan:

8am: Wake up hereabouts. Shower, and have eaten breakfast by 9am.

9am: Start first session with my morning coffee, which will be 1.5 hours (300 hands)

1030am: Have a half hour break, do whatever.

11am: Poker study for 45 minutes. This can be watching poker videos (actively watching, and taking notes, not just watching it like TV) or reading poker books. This should not be hand history analysis, as that comes later.

1145am: Fifteen minute break.

12pm: Play my hour-long session for the day, knocking out my last 200 hands.

1pm: Review the days hands, analyse any interesting hands but even if I don't find an interesting hand pick one hand - however mundane - and analyse it fully in my blog. I've been using the excuse "oh no tricky spots" too often lately, when really practising putting opponents on accurate ranges and thinking about how they play them is useful, tricky spot or not. This plus the 45 minute study session at 11 should bring my daily poker study from five minutes up to at least an hour, every day. An acceptable start.



That gives me the rest of the day free to do as I please, which is of course nice. The hardest adjustment will probably be getting myself in bed by 11 to be asleep by 12 (I don't fall asleep very well), but hopefully I'll manage to maintain that.



On a more general note, I will be reverting to the plan of using poker to pay for my shit as of November, and if that means I don't hit 50NL by the end of the year then that's absolutely fine, a month or so's extra wait is worth never putting myself in a position where I'm relying on earnings from poker to survive from week to week.



I have four exams coming up over the next two and a half weeks, so there may be four days that I miss the above schedule, but other than that I have no excuses. And once my last exam (Nov 7th) is over, I shall review how things are going, and change anything as necessary. I will probably also bump up the number of hours per day I devote to poker, and possibly try playing three tables instead of two, since I will really have nothing else that needs to be occupying my time or mind over the summer break.



Wish me luck!

Well I guess that completes my transition over to here. While I don't expect that anyone's gonna read the preceding posts, I look forward to your comments on whatever I post from hereon out.

GL

I read most of it, and I'll probably re-read more thoroughly it later this week.

Good luck sir.

GL Kiwi - have printed off your mammoth post to have a look at later on.

kiwimark! Good Luck to you sirr

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

my current expenses (read: beer and coffee).

sounds familiar...

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

so I decided a couple of weeks ago that if I can make and withdraw one buy-in at 25NL per week, then that should be enough to cover the rest of my costs.

aim low imo.

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

I play 500 hands of 25NL every day (750 on weekends) on two tables,

play 3 tables.

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

Suddenly I realise I've been telling myself that playing and getting the hands in has to come before study and learning, and there'll be plenty of time for study once I've reached 50NL, I just need to get there.

good that you're realising that study now is good. etc. Talk to you about this in irc. I realised ages ago, but am not studying as much as i should = not really progressing much at all.

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

From experience, to follow through on this ambition I'm actually going to need a schedule of sorts. My current plan:

treat poker as a project

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

Wish me luck!

you shouldn't need it
bonus whore a couple of bonuses. Get a bunch of weeks worth of living $$ up your sleeve. Allow poker progression more easily.

Firstly, thanks everyone for the responses and feedback thus far. It's great to know people are reading, and I'll try and have a proper go through all of your OPs, too, although with my first exam tomorrow it may take me a day or two.

Today I tried play on three tables instead of two, meaning I got in 750 hands instead of 500. I definitely did notice a difference, but it was by all means manageable, so barring anything unpleasant in the next few days, three tables will probably remain my norm until after exams, when I'll reevaluate and consider adding a fourth.

So, today's HH analysis:


$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain is 41/18 over like 17 hands

Stacks:
UTG vliegendhert ($27.05)
CO hahaxD ($31.50)
BTN leeuwdirdir ($19.05)
SB matglad ($12.50)
BB Hero ($25)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 5 players) Hero is BB
3 folds, matglad calls $0.15, Hero raises to $1, matglad calls $0.75

Flop: ($2, 2 players)
matglad checks, Hero bets $1.25, matglad calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.50, 2 players)
matglad checks, Hero checks

River: ($4.50, 2 players)
matglad bets $1, $1 to Hero ($22.75)?


Preflop: BvB I think he's calling with a lot of crap here. But he'd also be raising some of the higher end of that crap. I'm saying his range is: {A2-A9, K8-K9, Q8-Q9, J8-J9, T9, 54s-98s, 22-88}


Flop: He checks, I cbet as a semibluff, and I think his calling range is something like: {A2-A6, Ad7d-AdTd, Kd8d-Kd9d, Qd8d-Qd9d, Jd8d-Jd9d, 54s-87s, 22-88} (68+4+2+2+2+11+33 = 122combos)

That means he's calling 122/239 combos, or folding 49% of the time.

I just went to pokerstove to work out how much equity I had for my breakeven equation to see how much fold equity I would need for this to be plus EV, and apparently I have 56% equity against that calling range. ...So I guess I'm betting for value, here.

Turn: On the turn I drop down to having 35% equity, and I don't think that anything that called the flop is folding on this turn, so I have next to zero fold equity. So I check behind.

River: The river pairs the board again, and I miss my draw. Any busted diamond draws that might be bluffing here beat me anyway, so it's an easy fold

Kiwi's got a blog now. Sweet! *BooG adds Kiwi to the list of blogs he secretly stalks*

Originally Posted by BooG690

Kiwi's got a blog now. Sweet! *BooG adds Kiwi to the list of blogs he secretly stalks*

And before you know it he'll be insta lynching you. Good luck wit the OP and the WW

hey mark, good luck on improving your game and growing your bankroll. it's apparent you have good discipline and that, plus a little skill, will take you very far down the road you're travelling; far enough to be happy with what you'll accomplish.

i enjoyed reading what you've wrote so far, and i like the depth of analysis you go into... other players like me benefit from your effort!

@Vi-Zer0Skill: Thank you very much for the kind words. They're probably more encouraging than you know.


So, today's been one of those days.
Brag: Nailed my exam this morning.
Beat: Had to stop playing mid-session because of tilt for the first time in a month or so.
Variance: I calmed down and grinded another 100 hands an hour or so later, putting me at a total of 500 for the day.

In more detail:

After nearly walking into the wrong room, I found my exam before it was too late, and then finished it in half the allotted time. Had gone to the supermarket, biked home, and was talking shit in IRC before the exam was officially over. It was my computer science exam, the one that I was least worried about, but it still feels good.

I then decided to grind today, which in retrospect was probably a mistake. I shall not be playing any poker on Thursday (the day of my next exam). About half an hour before my session was over I got into two hands on two separate tables at the same time, in both of which my stack was on the line. I got coolered in one (QQ < KK) and while I would say that kind of thing normally doesn't bother me anymore, because I was involved in the other hand I didn't feel like I had a couple of seconds to breathe and move on, and I ended up making the dumb decision of shoving with my combodraw on the turn when I had 0FE. Needless to say I missed, and was down two stacks. Even that's not something that normally bothers me, but bad play does, so I quit pokerstars.

I went and killed some aliens in Halo on the computer for about an hour, started reading m2m's op, and then fired up two (as opposed to three) 25NL tables and grinded for about another half an hour. During which time I met one of my favourite types of 25NL reg, who have discovered that the Secret To Poker is to call the flop to fold the turn, regardless of what the flop and turn actually are.

While I don't really think that today's tilt was the fault of playing three tables, tomorrow I'll start off playing just two and then add a third shortly into my session when I feel comfortable.

I am also officially never grinding with IRC open again. This is something I say in IRC quite often now, but this time I mean it. Rather than just putting on the |grind tag and hiding the application, I'm going to actually quit for each session, because somehow I always open that window back up without meaning to and stop focusing on my tables.

Alright that was pretty much just me shitting out what's on my mind right now, I'll post again later tonight with today's hand history.

nice post dude

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

Brag: Nailed my exam this morning.

rad

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

Beat: Had to stop playing mid-session because of tilt for the first time in a month or so.

nice work recognising the tilt and quitting. This skill is more valuable than you perhaps realise. I imagine that all low-mid-stakes regs here would be a lot richer if they (we) had that skill

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

I shall not be playing any poker on Thursday (the day of my next exam).

good

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

I am also officially never grinding with IRC open again. This is something I say in IRC quite often now, but this time I mean it. Rather than just putting on the |grind tag and hiding the application, I'm going to actually quit for each session, because somehow I always open that window back up without meaning to and stop focusing on my tables.

good. Put a prop agreement on it with some micro reg who wants the same thing. $1/time you catch them/they catch you or something

Even though my exam couldn't've gone more my way this morning I am totally dead to the world right now. I tried sitting down with Theory and Practice but I just wasn't taking any of it in. I'll post two hand histories tomorrow, instead of one today. This really isn't a habit I want to get into, but I did say at the start that days with exams on them were likely to be exceptions to my plan.

That said, I'm putting myself to use even if I can't think for shit. My parents are away for a couple of weeks and I'd left the place get pretty run down, especially the kitchen, but I've spent the last hour or so sorting the dishes, busting out the ol' spray and wipe and vacuuming up the cat fur that's everywhere. I have no idea why, but being in a clean house puts me in a much better frame of mind.

Err, yeah, I'm rambling.

Alrighty, here's the HH from yesterday I've picked. I'm finding double barrelling to be quite profitable at 25NL, so I'm looking to make sure I do it in the right spots.


$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain is 27/5 and has never folded to a contiunation bet (out of only three opportunities, but I still think it's worth noting)

Stacks:UTG caseybicking ($10.35)
CO jojo972 ($14.60)
BTN Hero ($50.80)
SB Parseval ($34.20)
BB quick653 ($26.70)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 5 players) Hero is BTN
caseybicking calls $0.25, jojo972 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, quick653 calls $1.25, caseybicking folds, jojo972 folds

Flop: ($3.60, 2 players)
quick653 checks, Hero bets $3, quick653 calls $3

Turn: ($9.60, 2 players)
quick653 checks, Hero bets $6.50 ...


Preflop: I iso the two limpers and the big blind calls, which from a decent player I might see as a sign of a bit of strength, since the two limpers are still to act behind him, but this guy was basically a fish, so I think his range is still fairly wide: {A5+, K8s+, KTo+, QT+, JT, 54s+, 22+}


Flop: I flop pretty hard, with an OESD+FD, and so I fire out a fairly large continuation bet. Going off stats, villain is never folding to a flop bet, so I've got like 63% equity against his range.

Turn: I miss the turn, but I figure I've still got quite a bit of equity, and the ace should give me some fold equity, so I fire again, 'cause I think he has a tough time calling with his raggy 8's and 4's now. I'd say he's calling with {A5+, Ks8s, KsQs, 6s5s, 76s, 8s7s, 98s-JTs, 44, 88-99, TT+} (96+1+1+1+4+1+8+3+6+21 = 142 combos)

So he's folding 113/255 or 44% of the time.
I'm betting $6.50 into $9.60, so for it to be a profitable pure bluff, I need him to fold at least 6.5/16.1 or 40% of the time.

So this is profitable as a pure bluff, not to mention the shit ton of equity I have if his range his tighter than I'm thinking.


PS. While doing this analysis I decided I was going to write a program over then next couple of days which, given a board and a hand (eg. 6h7cKd2c, A4o) will tell me how many combinations of the hand there are, 'cause I'm sick of adding them up each time I analyse a bluff.
But getting good at counting hand combinations quickly is probably a useful skill to have, so I might keep doing it by hand. Thoughts?

About the program, it might be useful, but at the same time I think its best to just add them up urself as I think you'll learn better that way.

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

PS. While doing this analysis I decided I was going to write a program over then next couple of days which, given a board and a hand (eg. 6h7cKd2c, A4o) will tell me how many combinations of the hand there are, 'cause I'm sick of adding them up each time I analyse a bluff.

Flopzilla imo

Originally Posted by BooG690

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

PS. While doing this analysis I decided I was going to write a program over then next couple of days which, given a board and a hand (eg. 6h7cKd2c, A4o) will tell me how many combinations of the hand there are, 'cause I'm sick of adding them up each time I analyse a bluff.

Flopzilla imo

Can't get it working on mac, but something like I described would be easy as pie to code up.

So this hand is sorta like the opposite of the last hand- this time I was playing against someone who was quite passive, and quite fit or fold, so even though I had strong holdings I wanted to be cautious. I suspect I should have value bet a bit more in this hand, but I like that I recognised a villain to take a pot control line against, and had the discipline to do it instead of my usual approach of "MY ONE HOLE CARD LOOKS LIKE MY OTHER HOLE CARD AND IT HAS A FACE ON IT, BETBETBET". </brag> From there, I can go onto actually taking pot control lines in better spots. Hence analysis:


$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain was 15/3 and seemed to be playing really fit or fold postflop.

Stacks:
CO eskalerareal ($42.80)
BTN Hero ($31.40)
SB kripe3007 ($19.50)
BB Bluebull15 ($26.65)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 4 players) Hero is BTN
1 fold, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, Bluebull15 calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.10, 2 players)
Bluebull15 checks, Hero bets $1.50, Bluebull15 calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.10, 2 players)
Bluebull15 checks, Hero bets $2.50, Bluebull15 calls $2.50

River: ($10.10, 2 players)
Bluebull15 checks, Hero checks


Preflop: His range to call here is something like: {ATs+, AJo+, KTs+, KJo+, QJ, 76s-JTs, 22+}

Flop: He check/calls here, which alarms me a bit. I think his range is: {AJ-AQ, KJo+, KTs+, QJ, T9s-JTs, 88+} against which I only have 54% equity.

Turn: I think his range for calling the turn is almost the same as on the flop, although he maybe drops some combos of 88-TT, which could mean I don't have enough equity to value bet here. In any event I bet small, 'cause I don't want a huge pot here against this guy when I'm not feeling confident.

River: He checks the river, and I think if I were to bet again the only range that would call me is: {AJ-AQ, KJ+, QJ, JTs, JJ+} against which I have 37% equity, so I check behind.

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

PS. While doing this analysis I decided I was going to write a program over then next couple of days which, given a board and a hand (eg. 6h7cKd2c, A4o) will tell me how many combinations of the hand there are, 'cause I'm sick of adding them up each time I analyse a bluff.
But getting good at counting hand combinations quickly is probably a useful skill to have, so I might keep doing it by hand. Thoughts?

keep doing it by hand. What is the goal in hand analysis? to eventually improve your decision making during game-play?
Figure out the shortcuts to be able to do it even more quickly. Maybe break the range into groups. etc. Pretty sure spoon could give you a bunch of good tips on this - he's probably pretty much the guru of quick range calcs.

I intend to be back on later to write a real blog post with words and stuff before I go to bed tonight, but until then, here's today's hand history:


$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain was 45/35

Stacks:
UTG ReyesBleed ($38.65)
CO roulian57 ($5.15)
BTN Hero ($25)
SB coranus29 ($26.15)
BB legil279 ($31.65)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 5 players) Hero is BTN
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, legil279 calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60, 2 players)
legil279 checks, Hero bets $1, legil279 calls $1

Turn: ($3.60, 2 players)
legil279 checks, Hero bets $2.25, legil279 raises to $5.75, Hero calls $3.50

River: ($15.10, 2 players)
legil279 bets $17.50, Hero folds

Final Pot: $32.60

legil279 wins $31.90 (net +$6.90)

Hero lost $7.50



Preflop: Villain's range for calling is very wide, probably like: {A2+, K8s+, K9o+, Q9s+, QTo+, J9s+, JTo, 32s-T9s, 22+}

Flop: Villain checks, I fire out standard c-bet, villain's range is so wide preflop that I'm very sure this is a profitable bluff. Villain calls, however, and I think his range for doing so is: {AT+, K8s+, K9o+, Q9s+, QTo+, J9s+, JTo, T9s, 22+}

Turn: I thought this was a good spot for a double barrel as I picked up quite a bit of equity (my gutshot straight draw is now the nutstraight draw, and I have a flushdraw) and when the ace hits and I bet again I think I fold out a lot of his pocket pairs, and any Tx hands he has in his range.
However he check/raises me, offering me 11.6:3.5 or 3.3:1 pot odds to call. I think his range for doing that is: {AT, AK, K8+, K9o+, QJ, Jc9c-JcTc, TT, KK, AA} against which I only have like 15% equity making this a pretty horrible call on my part. At the time I was like "Whee I almost have pot odds to call on my flush alone, plus implied odds make this easy" but I guess I neglected to factor in that the board is paired, and the check/raise really is strength.

River: I whiff, making it a very easy fold.

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain was 22/13


Stacks:
UTG gambla21720 ($52.25)
UTG+1 Hero ($26.20)
CO LOLKIR ($21.20)
BTN jeffreyvw ($26.30)
SB slipperily ($49.75)
BB MajorTom9g ($25.80)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1
1 fold, Hero raises to $1, 3 folds, MajorTom9g calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.10, 2 players)
MajorTom9g checks, Hero bets $1.50, MajorTom9g raises to $5, Hero calls $3.50

Turn: ($12.10, 2 players)
MajorTom9g bets $10, $10 to Hero ($20.2)?



Preflop: I think villain's calling range out of the BB is something like: {AJo+, ATs+, KQo, KJs+, 54s-QJs, 86s-QTs, 22+}

Flop: The flop's quite nice, and I fire out a semibluff cbet, which gets raised. I think his range for raising me here is: {AK, AsTs-AsQs, KsJs+, Ts9s-QsJs, Js9s-QsTs, 44, 88, KK, AA}.
Against this range I've got 38% equity, which means I can call here given my pot odds of ~2.5:1

Turn: The turn doesn't help me, and he bets again, very large. I think his range for doing this is: {AK, AsTs+, KsJs+, 44, 88, KK, AA}.
Against this range I only have 23% equity, and while I quite often stack the villain when I hit, there are times he has a higher flush, so I don't think my implied odds are quite as high as 3:1, making this a fold.

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
villain was 41/24

Stacks:
CO oskaryanguas ($25.85)
BTN Hero ($28.75)
SB juanro_20 ($4.85)
BB QuietEarner ($48.30)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 4 players) Hero is BTN
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, juanro_20 calls $0.65, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.75, 2 players)
juanro_20 checks, Hero bets $1, juanro_20 raises to $2.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: ($6.75, 2 players)
juanro_20 checks, Hero bets $5, juanro_20 folds

Final Pot: $11.75

Hero wins $11.45 (net +$3.20)

juanro_20 lost $3.25



Preflop: Villain's range is superwide preflop: {A@+, K5s+, K9o+, Q8s+, Q9o+, J8s+, J9o+, 54s-T9s, 75s-T8s, 76o-T9o, 22+}

Flop: On the flop villain check/raises me, and it's gonna cost me $1.50 to call for $5.25, giving me 3.5:1 pot odds. Which means I need about 22% equity to call here on pot odds alone.
I think he's check raising me with {A6-A7, AQ+, 5h4h, 9h8h, 76, 66, 77, AA} against which I have 33% equity, making it a call.

Turn: Here I hit and so obviously stick the money in since he has like less than two bucks behind, and he decides to fold.

Blog post with words coming later today. I mean it this time!

Alright I guess I haven't posted since Tuesday.

On Wednesday I tried 3-tabling again, and was really happy with how I played. I disconnected from IRC, but left the application open, and I'm really glad I did it that way. Normally when I'm grinding I hide IRC, and then five or so minutes later I'll realise that I'm reading it again, without noticing I'd even dragged it back into view. That meant that I kept getting mad pattern interrupts every time I'd subconsciously drag the IRC app into view and be confronted by a blank window instead of chat. Then I'd realise I was drifting and start focussing more on poker again.

On Thursday I had my exam, so no poker. Exam went kinda averagely, but time will tell what I end up getting.

A happy consequence of playing three tables is that if I play the same number of hours per day as I used to I get 750 hands instead of 500, which is a big boost to my volume. However, I decided on Friday that a [i]happier[/b] consequence is that I can maintain the same volume of 500 hands with less hours of play. That means that I have now dropped 45 minutes of play from my daily routine, and replaced it with 45 more minutes of study. Which means my studylay ratio is finally more than 1:1, which I feel great about.
I'm struggling to feel confident at 25NL, so hopefully the increased focus on learning will mean I start to get more of a grasp of it and feel comfortable.

Saturday and today were pretty standard, poker-wise, although I think I got my butt handed to me on both days. Onwards and upwards, and all that. I am, however, a bit annoyed with myself today 'cause I failed to get done the study that I wanted to for my Economics exam on Tuesday. So I've decided that I'm gonna skip poker tomorrow (and obviously on Tuesday, since my exam's that day) to give me more time and energy to prepare. A bit of a poor start to the month, but real life obviously has to come first in this case.

My study now consists almost 50/50 of reading T&P and watching videos (and my daily HH analysis), which is a nice combination of theory and watching it being applied. I feel, however, I want to add more thinking about the game to my routine. To that end:
When I do my daily HH analysis I fire up PokerStove, and punch in likely combinations until I hit a percentage that roughly matches the villain's stats. While I think this is great for me, and highly recommend this kind of analysis to anybody starting out, I want to up the thinking a bit, so I feel it will be beneficial if I now first try to put villains on a range without PokerStove and then open it and check how close I was, adjust my range, etc. This should help me develop a feel for how ranges match up to stats much more quickly than my current approach.
Secondly, every week (or some regular time interval, not sure about this, may be subject to change, but it's important to me that it is regular) I'm going to make a blog post which is my musings/thoughts on some poker-related topic. It might be specific like 3-betting light in position, or it might be more general like preflop raising or even bankroll management, but it will be something poker-related. These might end up being phrased as if they're teaching articles or me pretentiously preaching, however I would like to stress now that there will probably be a lot of wrong thinking in them, and they're posted much less to teach others as to give me a space and a format to really think through whatever concept. You guys' feedback/arguments/corrections on those posts would be invaluable, as would your suggestions for topics (although I have a couple already). The point isn't really "take one thing and only think about that thing for a week", it's just that I find once you go to concretely set down what you know about something, you realise holes in your own understanding, or new ideas about it may come to you, and I feel like that combined with the critique I get on whatever comes out will be immensely beneficial.

I think that's all for now. Oh, and I'm shooting for gold star in November. Will proofread tomorrow, hopefully it's vaguely coherent. Oh, another goal I remembered, eat more breakfast. I always seem to run out of steam before lunch (up until poker and aside from germany (wie ich gut gehacktes vermisse) I really haven't eaten breakfast regularly in years). Night.

the weekly article thing is a good idea. Very few people will read them and posting them in the BC is a waste of time, but you'll get a lot of benefit out of this. In an ideal world you would post them and this would stimulate a load of intelligent discussion of benefit to all parties involved. Post it in the bc and you'll get one-liners and dumb responses. This forum needs a poker-strategy section - there used to be one but it got intelligently-designed out of existence...

JTs hand - pre-flop is good. Flop c-bet is fine, he's folding here often enough and you're happy to get it in if need be. Turn you need to know how you're responding to a check-raise before you bet. I think checking behind here is fine but barrelling is better for the reasons you stated = fold equity + hand equity. I don't like your range estimate on the turn though, he folds some of this on the flop regardless of his fold to c-bet stats.

KK hand - pre-flop is good. Flop is fine. Turn checking behind is better than a silly sized bet when you're always folding to a check raise. Check behind = $4.50 >>> $2.5. Checking behind has the value of looking weak and being the best way to extract river value - he won't check a jack three streets but may bet his Qx/TT type of hands on the river, and will definitely be check-calling pot after the turn checks through.


Q9s - you can 3x or even 2.5x to steal here. Has to work less often to be profitable etc. Flop c-bet is fine, turn is an easy check behind. Not so many better hands are folding, and not many worse hands are calling.

67s - pre-flop is pretty loose and flop you need to at least consider 3-bet shoving.

58s - fine, but look at stack sizes before c-betting. C-betting vs 20bb is a different game, you gotta know what you're doing vs a likely shove.

Thanks heaps for the feedback on the hands, daven, it's been read and taken on board

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain was 44/6, called preflop raise of 22%

Stacks:
UTG lemlywinks ($25)
UTG+1 jaydoggie ($25.35)
CO Hero ($25.25)
BTN CoolHand1990 ($44.75)
SB Mephisto27 ($25)
BB gromozepa ($27.85)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is CO
2 folds, Hero raises to $1, CoolHand1990 calls $1, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.35, 2 players)
Hero checks, CoolHand1990 checks

Turn: ($2.35, 2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, CoolHand1990 calls $1.50

River: ($5.35, 2 players)
Hero checks, CoolHand1990 bets $2.25, $2.25 to Hero ($22.75)?


Preflop: I think villain's range for calling my PFR is: {A5s+, ATo+, K8s+, KTo+, Q9s+, QJo, J9s+, JTo, 54s-T9s, 86s-T8s, 22+}

Flop: I miss the flop, and I think when I bet here I fold out exactly nothing that beats me (I think even TT calls here for a street) and I fold out a shit-ton of stuff that I do beat and could maybe get value from on later streets. Plus I have heaps of showdown value. So I check.

Turn: When the flop checks through I fire the turn here, I think 55-88 are now more likely to call, as are flush draws, and maybe some straight draws. I think his range for calling my turn bet is like: {A5s+, ATo+, Kh8h, KhTh+, QhTh+, JhTh, 54s-76s, 8h7h, 8h6h, Th8h, 33, 44, 55-KK, AA}
So it turns out this range absolutely owns me, and I really shouldn't be betting for value here. Maybe it's fair to say that a lot of the better part of the range bets on the flop, but I wouldn't guarantee it. It sucks being OOP.

River: The flush completes, and now I'm basically just check/folding, as his entire range consists of: pairs that beat me, flushes, pairs below me that check, and a small number of missed straights, but not enough to make this a call ever.

Today I tried four-tabling as hopefully I'll be doing that every session from next week onwards. It went great. I had no desire to open up IRC or any webpages, was focussed, and once I realised that when faced with a decision on two or more tables at the same time I could breathe and think and let my timebank tick down without the world exploding, it was an awesome session.
Here's a hand that scared me a bit playing it, even though in 3bet pots ranges should be tight and decisions easy, so I'm going to analyse it.



$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain was 24/21 over 67 hands with 15% 3bet. I'd seen him make such a squeeze once already, and his cbet took it down.

Stacks:
UTG Hero ($33.15)
UTG+1 frankvdg ($26.50)
CO lauran123 ($26.35)
BTN Odysseia ($46.15)
SB merlin1989 ($15.10)
BB generaatorM ($44.55)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, lauran123 calls $1, 2 folds, generaatorM raises to $4.95, Hero calls $3.95, lauran123 folds

Flop: ($11, 2 players)
generaatorM checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($11, 2 players)
generaatorM checks, Hero bets $6, generaatorM calls $6

River: ($23, 2 players)
generaatorM checks, Hero checks




Preflop: He has a fairly high 3bet % and I'd seen him squeeze like this before (same bet size and everything), so I'm thinking he's maybe doing it with a range like: {TT+, AJs+, AQo+, KQs}. However I've no idea how accurate a range like that would be. In any event, I'm ahead of that range, and so I call.

Flop: In the last pot I'd seen him squeeze, he cbet largely on the flop and took it down. However I obviously can't know if that was a bluff or for value, so when he checks here I think I'm best to check behind, as a range that would be calling my bet is something like: {TT+, AsJs+, KsQs} against which I've got less than 40% equity.

Turn: When he checks the turn I think it's unlikely he has aces, and perhaps slighlly less likely he has KK or TT. So I bet here expecting his continuing range to be: {TT-KK, AsJs+, KsQs} against which I've got about 50% equity, but factoring in that it seems less likely he has a strong holding, I think it's an okay value bet.

River: T comes on the river, which means no flush draws came in, and certainly none are calling me. Which leaves my range here that I expect to get a call from as: {JJ, QQ, KK} against which I'm obviously dead even. I said that I think he maybe has KK less often, so perhaps I should've value bet here, but at the time I thought maybe he's slowplaying aces (unlikely) or something, so I checked behind.

I like your reasoning for his hand ranges here, and I definitely wouldn't mind a smallish bet of like $8-12 here on the river. Like you said, its HIGHLY unlikely hes playing AA/KK this way, but I can easily see him playing JJ/QQ this way a lot. I think you're missing a fair amount of value by not betting this river smallish, since your hand is seriously underrepped as well. He might be thinking YOU are the won with missed AK/AQs and snap it off with a smaller PP.

Seems like villain never, ever, has a FD or KK+ here.

Thanks for the feedback, guys Had a good chat with BooG about it too, and came to the conclusion that he's not checking three streets with KK here, and that he probably has smaller pairs sometimes that I can get value from, so it's worth betting the river here.

So that's cool, I'm obviously much happier when I post hands that lead to improvement, rather than post hands that happen to be okay as they are.

99 hand is fine
QQ hand is fine. Thing is that you gonna have to fold to a check-raise if you bet the river and his c-c range is tiny. Betting when he's about guaranteed to fold doesn't generate a lot of value. Guess he may hero-call AK, but meh. Bet-fold small $6-$11 again or check behind?

Yeah, given history, I'm able to be persuaded that he might've been squeezing with some weaker pairs (77-99) that given the action would pay off a small river bet.

No HH from me today, study for my exam tomorrow. My last one!

Regarding the QQ hand you posted I'm gonna be honest - I didn't read a single word of that post, but I noticed you didn't value bet the river. WTF VALUE BET THE RIVER YOUR HAND IS SO SO UNDEREPPED IT LOOKS LIKE U HAVE AIR! (Choosing a bet size on river would be interesting - you can honestly expect AK to call you here sometimes if he decided to station you on the turn thinking he's chopping/ahead alot)

I might gay bet like $6 again to tilt him if he's an aggro reg but when you do this you can't fold to a c/r since your line would look kind of FOS/kind of trying to get real thin value.

m2m: Yeah that seems to be the consensus. Now I know for next time



Posted a stat-checkup in the BC, may as well post it here as well as a sorta mark of where I was on this date. Bankroll is $800, which means I've been breakeven for the last like three weeks which is a bit on the lame side, but such is life, hopefully I can pick it up. Exams are over so tomorrow will involve a lot of poker.

Stat thread:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ck-t90549.html

Alrighty, I might get roasted for not going for more value here, as with the QQ hand, but at least that'll get it into my head. Played 1200 hands at three tables today, felt like I was playing pretty decent. Probably do a longer post tonight before sleep.


$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain is 36/14 over 70 hands.

Stacks:
UTG Telemar King ($14.15)
UTG+1 cdset ($35.90)
CO Hero ($25)
BTN Geraet ($28.60)
SB Ladiesman821 ($11.10)
BB No1_Playa ($25.15)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is CO
2 folds, Hero raises to $1, Geraet calls $1, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.35, 2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, Geraet calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.35, 2 players)
Hero checks, Geraet bets $2.25, Hero calls $2.25

River: ($9.85, 2 players)
Hero checks, Geraet bets $5, $5 to Hero ($20.25)?



Preflop: Calling range is, say, {A5s+, ATo+, K9s+, KTo+, Q9s+, QTo+, J9s+, JTo+, 54s-T9s, 86s-T8s, 76o-To, 22+}

Flop: Kinda scary-ish flop, I cbet kinda small (should probably be larger). I expect he's calling here with: {AJ+, Ac5c-Ac-Tc, KT+, Kc9c, Q9s+, QTo+, J9s+, JTo, T9, 5c4c-9c8c, 8c6c-Tc8c, JJ, QQ, KK+} against which I have 55% equity.

Turn: The flush comes in, so I check. I think he bets out here with {AJ, AQ, Ac5c-Ac8c, AcKc, KT+, QJ, J9s+, JTo, 5c4c-8c7c, Tc8c, JJ, QQ, KK, AA} against which I have 27% equity, so I need to be getting a but under 3:1 to call, which the pot is offering me, so I do just that.

River: The river bricks, but I see no reason to bet out here, so I check. He bets, and I think his range for doing so is: {AJ, Ac5c-Ac8c, AcKc, KT, KJ, QJ, J9s+, JTo, 5c4c-8c7c, Tc8c, JJ, QQ, KK, AA} against which I have like no equity, making it a clear fold.

Okay, so played three tables today and felt pretty good about it. Will keep that from now until Thursday, and then review and re-evaluate how things are going.

Here's a break-down of my daily schedule that I'm now gonna stick to:

8am: Wakeup, shower, breakfast, coffee, etc.
9am: First hour-long study session
10am: First two-hour-long play session
12pm: 30 minute lunch break
1230: Second hour-long study session
1330: Second two-hour-long play session
1530: Third hour-long study session
1630: Done.

In practice, I sprinkle some five minute breaks throughout the day to have a bit of a walk round outside, and clear my head etc., so I won't get finished until 5 (or later, depending on the tables, the session times are a rough estimate, I actually go by #hands).
This will be Monday-Thursday, and Saturday. I decided to avoid burning out I'm giving myself a "weekend" on Fridays and Sundays, which means I can go out on Thursday and Saturday nights. In practice I might end up playing an hour or so on Friday and Sunday but that'd be, like, "optional".
So yeah, that's my schedule. It means my studylay ratio has fallen below 1:1 again, but I might build that back up over time, depending on how things go.

Now that my exams are over I intend to start reading through all of your guys' ops, too, which might take me a while, but I'll get there =)

So I have a couple of problems (well I've got a billion, but let's stick with two for today). One is that I feel I've become a bit more results oriented again in that I let whether I'm winning or losing affect me more than I would like. I don't check my bankroll very often (once a week at the most frequent), but when I do my daily session reviews I get a fair idea just by seeing how the big pots went.

The other problem is that when I do my daily reviews I'm pretty wiped and over it, and I tend just to skim through and be like "yeah I remember how that went, yeah that was probably fine", etc. etc., pick an arbitrary hand to analyse in here, rush through that, and then forget about it. I've resolved numerous times to actually put the effort in, but it never seems to happen. And this is something that I feel is amongst the most important things that can be done to improve my game- it's all well and good reading about concepts in books, and watching how others play in videos, but if I'm not checking that I'm applying all that stuff consistently then it's a bit of a waste.

So, here's my solution, and I feel good about it: I will no longer do daily reviews. I will do one weekly review, on Saturday morning, as my first study session of the day, when I'm awake and focussed. And it may take an hour or more, because I will go through all the hands over 33bb (and any others I've made a note of in a text file) and actually think about my actions, and what I could've done instead, and think through the alternatives. I really feel like if I tackle this first thing in the morning and know that I've set aside time for it, then I'll put the work in and benefit from it. I'll also choose five hands (now that I only play 5 days a week, that's the same as my daily-hand-post would yield anyway) to analyse in here for future reference and any critique.

Sweeeeeet, plans like this make me feel pumped. But bed now, so I can get another good day in tomorrow.

Very nice Kiwi. I like the idea of a schedule as this should ensure you are both playing and studying. However, a weekly session review where you evaluate ALL your +33bb hands may involve a lot of hands, no? It seems to me that it may take you a lot longer than an hour and you may possibly even skim over that since there'll be a lot of hands to look at. Just my feeling on it though. I'm sure you'll work it out and see how it goes after your first review.

As for being results-oriented: the same is happening with me. I'm not necessarily looking during my session, but I'm letting dumb moves affect me negatively. I get irked when I make a bad decision (which I should) and that probably shows up on the table (which it shouldn't). I've decided to do my session reviews the day AFTER playing my session. This provides me with hands to analyze without having to do it the same day and amplify my feeling of "I'm a dumbass."

Glad to see things are going well though. Good luck with the grind.

Originally Posted by BooG

It seems to me that it may take you a lot longer than an hour and you may possibly even skim over that since there'll be a lot of hands to look at. Just my feeling on it though. I'm sure you'll work it out and see how it goes after your first review.

As for being results-oriented: the same is happening with me. I'm not necessarily looking during my session, but I'm letting dumb moves affect me negatively. I get irked when I make a bad decision (which I should) and that probably shows up on the table (which it shouldn't). I've decided to do my session reviews the day AFTER playing my session. This provides me with hands to analyze without having to do it the same day and amplify my feeling of "I'm a dumbass."

Yeah it's a fair point that it may take longer than an hour, I think it comes down to whether reviewing the hands is a drag or not, as to whether I skim. And that's something I'll figure out after my first review session this Saturday, as you say. However, what I hadn't thought about as a possible solution is doing a session review the next day, in the morning, when I'm awake and onto it. That's a cool idea, so I might trial that if the weekly review doesn't work out. My one concern there would be that if I'm reviewing all my hands before each day's play then it might have a pretty big impact on me at the tables for the rest of said day.
In any event, a bunch of things for me to try, and none are going to end the world if they don't quite work out

So yeah, thanks for the idea, and I'll report back =)

Good stuff.

Today was great. I watch a lot of 25NL videos where the instructors are like "oh at the micros" this and "compared to my stakes" that and how you just need to value bet the crap out of people and I'm like "Gah, 25NL is harder than that, damnit."
Today I had the realisation that in the videos these instructors are beating 25NL doing just what they're telling me to do. Simple stupid things like making your value bets a couple of BB more, and betting more streets of value against fish, even with just second pair, etc. etc. I think today was just a furthering/culmination of this week's realisation that 25NL is not as hard as I think it is and that a lot of the "omg regs everywhere" is in my head, and I should just keep playing the game I've always been playing, and go from there.

Feels good, man.

Alrighty, so I'm pretty happy with how my first weekly review went. Took about 45 minutes to go through all the hands, and now I've picked out five to go into more depth with, trying first to put them on ranges on my own, then using pokerstove:

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain was 38/30 over ~150 hands. He'd just lost a decent sized pot and exploded in chat a wee bit, so possibly kinda tilty.

Stacks:
UTG mvlpoker ($47.10)
UTG+1 Hero ($34.50)
CO I_AM_TheBank ($18.90)
BTN Cristian mdp ($41.80)
SB enejus2000 ($31.05)
BB iRiverU1 ($25.70)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1
mvlpoker calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, 3 folds, iRiverU1 calls $1, mvlpoker folds

Flop: ($2.85, 2 players)
iRiverU1 checks, Hero bets $2, iRiverU1 calls $2

Turn: ($6.85, 2 players)
iRiverU1 checks, Hero bets $4.75, iRiverU1 goes all-in $22.45, $17.7 to Hero ($26.5)?



Preflop: I try to isolate the UTG fish and instead get called by iRiverU1. I think his range for calling out of the BB is a bit tighter than his normal stats but sitll loosish, say: {22-QQ, AT-AQ, KT+, QTs+, QJo, 87s-JTs}

Flop: Flop obviously comes great for me, so I fire out a cbet here. I think he calls fairly loosely based on past history, he seems to like to float, so I'm leaving all his gutshots in his range at this point: {AT-AQ, KT+, QTs+, QJo,87s, JTs, 9s8s-Ts9s, 77, 88-QQ}. Obviously I have a boat-ton of equity against this range, so it's a clear value bet.

Turn: As I say, he likes to float, and recently lost a pot that seemed to tilt him, so I think his range here for check/raising me includes obviously really strong hands, but also a bunch of frustrated bluffs. Pot odds are a bit more than 1.9 : 1, so I need about 34% equity to call here. Against these hands which're definitely included in his range {AJ-AQ, KT, KsQs, QJ, QsTs, Ts9s, 77, JJ, QQ} I have 28% equity, and if you add in some slightly more ambitious bluffs on his part (which as I say again, I think is reasonable giving recent events), say even just adding in KQ as a gutshot insane semibluff then I have 40% equity, meaning that I think I'm alright to call the turn here.





$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain was 25/18 over ~80 hands

Stacks:
UTG MhobyDuck ($27.25)
UTG+1 duerenko ($43.10)
CO fabman2k ($38.55)
BTN Hero ($31.40)
SB gromozepa ($25)
BB tsl583 ($28.55)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is BTN
MhobyDuck raises to $0.75, 1 fold, fabman2k calls $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.60, 3 players)
MhobyDuck bets $2, fabman2k folds, Hero calls $2

Turn: ($6.60, 2 players)
MhobyDuck checks, Hero bets $3.50, MhobyDuck goes all-in $24.50, $21 to Hero ($25.15)?


Preflop: I think his range for raising UTG is: {A2s+, AJo+, KQ, 76s+, 66+}. Against that range I have 55% equity, and position, so I call.

Flop: Villain cbets with the range {A2s+, AJo+, 76s-T9s, 77, 99, AA} against which I have 55% equity so it's a call.

Turn: Here villain checks, and I bet out about half pot, expecting him to call with {A2s+, AJo+, 76s-87s, 77, 99, AA}, a range against which I still have like 57% equity so it's an easy value bet (this was the bit I was unsure about in the hand, if I should be betting out here). However villain doesn't check/call, but instead check/shoves all in. I think his range for doing that is fullhouses, quads, and maaybe 7x, but in any event a range that crushes me, so it's an easy fold.





$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain is 38/14 over 60 hands. Hadn't c/r before.

Stacks:
CO Gorbynok ($7.40)
BTN Hero ($26.40)
SB DiddyTran ($43.25)
BB LaGx-C ($57.65)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 4 players) Hero is BTN
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, DiddyTran calls $0.65, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.75, 2 players)
DiddyTran checks, Hero bets $1.25, DiddyTran raises to $3.25, Hero calls $2

Turn: ($8.25, 2 players)
DiddyTran bets $5.25, Hero calls $5.25

River: ($18.75, 2 players)
DiddyTran checks, Hero checks


Preflop: Villain calls with: {A2+, K8s+, K9o+, Q8s+, QTo+, J9s+, JT, 54s+, 75s+, 87o+, 22+}

Flop: I flop nice, but villain check-raises. {Ah2h+, Kh8h+, Qh8h+, Jh9h+, 54s, 7h6h, 44-55, 88, 99+}. I'm ahead of this range, so I call. I think I should probably have tried to get it in at this point, 'cause even if villain folds his flush draws, I don't think he's folding his overpairs and I'm ahead of that range.

Turn: Turn is an ace, and he bets again, I think with the same range but now without the pocket pairs between 88 and AA, so: {A2hh+, K8hh+, Q8hh+, J9hh+ 54s, 76hh, 44-55, 88, AA} I've got 51% equity against this range, so I call.

River: Villain checks, and I think I can elimate sets from his range. I think if I bet he calls with: {A4hh-A5hh, A8hh+, 54s} against which I have pretty much 50% equity, so it really depends on if he's calling with his one-pair aces here as to if it's a spot to go for value or not.





$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain is 26/4 over 23 hands.

Stacks:
CO roughlylunar ($25.60)
BTN Hero ($25)
SB Shtonk ($25.20)
BB hfr1 ($24.80)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 4 players) Hero is BTN
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, hfr1 calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60, 2 players)
hfr1 checks, Hero bets $1, hfr1 raises to $2, Hero raises to $4.50, hfr1 calls $2.50

Turn: ($10.60, 2 players)
hfr1 checks, Hero bets $7.50, hfr1 calls $7.50

River: ($25.60, 2 players)
hfr1 checks, Hero checks


Preflop: Villain calls with a range of: {22+, A5s+, ATo+, KTs+, KJo+, QTs+, QJo, 76s-JTs}

Fop: I flop kiiiinda nice, and villain check raises. I think I should have raised more here, as I think when he check/raises his range is fairly strong, and he'd call the same amount for, say, $6. His range for calling me here is {88, TT, QQ, KK+, AsQs, KsJs, KsQs, QTs}

Turn: Villain checks to me, and I bet 3/4 pot, expecting villain to continue with all of the range from the flop.

River: Here I checked behind when I think it's probably a clear value bet. I was thinking there are a lot of flushdraws in villain's range, but to check/raise the flop I'm not sure that there are that many, and I think I get value from overpairs/sets if I bet here.





$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain is 28/16 over 76 hands. Kinda bad-reg-ish.

Stacks:
UTG malondo ($64.20)
CO Hero ($36.15)
BTN richehm ($35.10)
SB LaGx-C ($43.60)
BB Gorbynok ($6.65)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 5 players) Hero is CO
1 fold, Hero raises to $1, richehm calls $1, 1 fold, Gorbynok calls $0.75

Flop: ($3.10, 3 players)
Gorbynok checks, Hero bets $2, richehm calls $2, Gorbynok folds

Turn: ($7.10, 2 players)
Hero bets $5.25, richehm calls $5.25

River: ($17.60, 2 players)
Hero bets $7.50, richehm calls $7.50



Preflop: I raise in the CO, I think BTN calls with something like {ATs+, AJo+, KQs, 54s-QJs, 22+}

Flop: Flop an ace, fire out a c-bet, I think villain's calling range here is: {ATs+, AJo+, 54cc-76cc, T9cc-KQcc, 87s-98s, 66, 88, 99-KK, AA} against which I have 57% equity.

Turn: Turn is a brick, and I bet again, which I think is a mistake. For some reason I got into the mentality of pwning the fish, but this guy is kinda reggy, so I think his continuing range here is like aces, sets and flushdraws, against which I only have lik 30% equity.

So I used to think that auto-piloting was like when I'm browsing the web and chatting on MSN and not paying attention to the poker tables until they pop up, I act, then go back to whatever else I was doing. And, I mean, it is that.
But it's also auto-piloting when I sit with the poker tables in the foreground, no other distractions, watch the screen the whole time, but when it's my turn to act make snap decisions based on some idea of "what I should do in this spot" rather than taking a second, looking at the relevant information, and thinking through the situation then pressing a button.

It's embarrassing to admit, but I realised that I have only auto-piloted, until yesterday and today. I just caught myself making a stupid snap decision again, and so shut down the tables, so clearly the realisation isn't a cure-all, but it surely means I can take steps towards fixing it.
I think my attitude beforehand was very much as if I was a bot, and I'd add new 'moves' to my repertoire before sessions, which is good and all, but not treating each spot/decision/button press individually is just too costly.

A big thanks to Surviva; without our chat the other night who knows how long it would've taken me to figure this out. Also cheers (as always, it seems ) to spoon for reinforcing it and offering tips, such as breathing more.

Pretty much just wanted to note this down here, as one of my many "the day I realised I'm an idiot" milestones on the ol' poker journey.

Wow, I dunno when poker became so much stress for me. I'm taking the rest of the afternoon off playing to de-stress. I've been pretty much operating under the assumption that 25NL is kicking my butt, but I guess I don't know if it's not me kicking my own butt, so I'm going to move down to 10NL for a while (at least 5k hands, is the wee thing I set myself) to try and see which it is, and to regain some confidence and lower the stress levels.

To be honest I'm putting some serious thought into withdrawing ~$500 and moving down to 10NL for the foreseeable future. Let's break down my finances. I'll do it in US dollars so it's consistent with poker, so it'll be a bit approximate but here goes:

I have $950 in savings in my bank and $720 in my pokerstars account.
By my count there are seven weeks until the end of the year, and I'm estimating I'll need $300 over that time (christmas, living etc.).
Which means as at the beginning of next year, I'll have $650 in savings, and since I'm moving out I'm estimating weekly costs of $150, with poker as my only source of income for nine weeks, and then a student loan of $120p.w. after that.

Iunno, this has gotten kinda rambly, but if I withdrew $400 now then I would have enough money sitting in the bank to last me three months, is basically what I'm saying. Then there'd be two weeks where I needed to have $150p.w., and after that my student loan kicks in and I only 'need' $30p.w. and even then if I don't get it it just means no beer/coffee/etc., I can still make rent and food.

So yeah I think I might do that (withdraw $400, move down to 10NL again for the duration) just so I have the money for three months' expenses sitting in my bank account, for my peace of mind.

Thoughts, anyone? I'm gonna wait a day or two to think about it, so let your opinions be heard if you have 'em.

It actually feels like there's some huge weight off my shoulders now, this is nuts =)

I dunno about all that money stuff, I'd just say withdraw exactly what you need?

For the most part in those hands you've posted above, your value cbets should be slightly larger IMO. Also, when facing aggression, bet sizing and timing are so freaking underrated. Like when someone c/r's the flop and then bets only 60% on the turn...I generally think "this is not a nut hand." In soooo many cases ppls sizes and sizing ratio are directly equivalent to their hand strength.

I think I'm burned out. I see I haven't posted for like eleven days but I've still been putting in 6+ hour days of poker. Expect a longer post from me later, but I think I'm gonna stop forcing the issue as far as poker is concerned, spend less time on it, and shift the focus back to improving rather than making bank. Which means taking a summer school paper and getting slightly further into debt, so as to have student loan money to live off rather than poker money, but hey, it's still points that counts towards my degree, so whatever.

As I said, longer post coming later.

Hey man.

I haven't followed your OP until giving it a looksie now. I went through the same you did. It took me a month or so to get off break even at 10NL, got rolled for 25NL quickly after that and did alright for a bit, then doomswitched. I was running really bad. Additionally I had built up all this pressure on myself, sort of believing I could blow through 25NL and keep moving up in like a month. Not being able to do that felt like failure, and I hate failure. On top of that I had real life kicking my ass, both in terms of money and general future outlook on my life's stability. All this is together is a fucking recipe for disaster.

My advice: take a break. Even if just for a week or two. Read some poker books, watch some DC vids, no need to disconnect from poker completely, but stay off the tables. It took me months of playing like shit due to all of the above for me to realise I had to gtfo for a bit, sort my shit out and then get back to it. Poker will still be there when you're ready to come back and kick it in the butt.

Anyways. Best of luck to you, man.

edit: You're definitely missing a some value in a lot of those hands a couple posts back, imo.

Hello again!

So you may have noticed in recent posts (now made several months ago) I was getting a bit disheartened. Moved into a flat at the beginning of the year and it took more than three weeks to get internet hooked up, so that, combined with not playing over christmas/new years meant I had a 4-6 week long enforced no-poker break, and came back to it about a week and a half feeling much better.

I still feel much better, and am excited about getting back into my old studious habits, so to that end I'll be going back to posting a daily hand for review, to which your comments/thoughts are very welcome and very appreciated!

That's pretty much all I have to say. I'm enjoying life, being out of home is cool, currently enrolled in summer school at university here, although I only have one week of class left.
Pokerwise, I'm playing four tables of 25NL 6max and am still awful at it, so bring on the study. I play two hours a day, and will be studying one hour a day on top of that (session review + daily hand post + reading/videos [ I think I'm gonna join DC vids for a month]). In addition to that, expect to see me shitting all over the BC with my poor advice and misguided thoughts- please don't hesitate to call me an idiot and set me on the right track in any of those threads, it's why I'll be posting. I've had this plan in the past, but I'm feeling really motivated to follow through with it this time.

So, if you see me slacking, drop me a line in here asking what the deal is, and just generally abusing me

Without further ado, a hand from today's horrible session, in which I felt rather lost, will follow in the next post.

Good to be back,
Mark

Daily review thingamy. Check out the last post on the previous page, made seconds before this one, if you've just clicked on page 2 of my op to see the most recent post like a sensible person would.

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG dielloni ($29.15)
UTG+1 Caronen ($36.90)
CO blindbezahlt ($31.70)
BTN ded3000 ($36.90)
SB Hero ($25)
BB meebo641 ($25)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is SB
dielloni raises to $2.25, 3 folds, Hero raises to $6, 1 fold, dielloni calls $3.75

Flop: ($12.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $7.50, dielloni calls $7.50

Turn: ($27.25, 2 players)
Hero checks, dielloni goes all-in $15.65, Hero folds

Final Pot: $42.90

dielloni wins $41.60 (net +$12.45)

Hero lost $13.50


Villain was 83/36 over 36 hands, his raise sizes were always massive, ranging between 6 and 10 big blinds.

Preflop: When he raises his range is fairly wide, but I think to call my 3bet it's narrower, something like: {22+, AQ+} Although really I feel fairly lost on assigning ranges like this to giant fish, I don't know if they care that I 3bet or not. He'd folded to one out of two 3bets, at the time of this hand.

Flop: On the flop I fire out a continuation bet. I think probably I shouldn't've, as worse isn't calling, and I doubt I'm even folding out many of his pocket pairs.

Let's say his calling range is: {33, 55, 66+, AQdd+} (3+3+45+2 = 53 combos)
And his folding range is: {22, 44, AQ+} (3+3+11+19 = 36 combos)

So he's folding 36/89 = 40.5% of the time.

And I need him to be folding 7.5/19.75 = 38% of the time.

Soooo according to that it's a +EV cbet, but given that I'm counting his folding AQ (which I beat ldfo) in the above as a good thing, I still think it's more EV to try to check it down. Thoughts?

if I check it down (assuming now he checks down AQ and AK without the flush draw and doesn't bluff) instead of winning $12.25 40.5% of the time ( $4.96 ) and losing $7.50 59.5% of the time ( -$4.46 ) so making a total profit of $0.50, I now never lose anything, 11/89=12% of the time I win $12.25 when he has AQ ($1.47) and 9% of the time I split with AK making my EV $1.47 + $0.55 = $2.03.

Soooooo, I make more checking it down than I do cbet bluffing, the risk of course being that maybe he bets AK or AQ at some point and I have to fold.

That was fairly long and rambly, just getting back into the practice of this, be interested in knowing what you guys think.

I think your ranges are wrong - he's calling a 3bet way wider than pairs/AQ+. He's calling a shove with AQ/KJ...

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

Villain was 83/36 over 36 hands, his raise sizes were always massive, ranging between 6 and 10 big blinds.

i'd seriously consider shipping it pre, as played I dunno, I don't like the cbet much, and the sizing even less. Smaller.

Cool. Mistakes = learning. Do you usually go smaller for cbets in 3bet pots? I've been 3betting from the blinds a bit and I'm never really sure how big to make my cbet bluffs.

But yeah, ranges against such wide fish are something I feel really unsure on, and one of the main reasons for posting that hand. I forget against some players I really can just shovel massively for value.

Dropping the arrogance, dropping the "I'm a winning player, I just need to wait it out, not try to improve", dropping the "I already know about X, I don't need to read/watch anything about it".

First stop, digest every preflop video and article I can get from different sources instead of sticking with my "I've got a fairly good idea of what to open from where" approach from when I first learned about preflop opening ranges and discarding everything since as a repeat of what I already know.

There're lots of little scraps of knowledge out there and they're not doing me any good when I dismiss them out of hand because they don't fit in with my "already winning game". Open minded learning here I come. Should be good.

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

Cool. Mistakes = learning.

dude, you know how much learning i make/do every session

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

Do you usually go smaller for cbets in 3bet pots? I've been 3betting from the blinds a bit and I'm never really sure how big to make my cbet bluffs.

yes, i think you can figure out why if you try. I think i got this after reading a spenda or fnord post, as is fairly common! write your thoughts on it, post them here or in the bc, actually, make it a bc post - 'cbet sizing in 3bet pots'. cool. spoon will love it

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

digest every preflop video and article I can get from different sources instead of sticking with my "I've got a fairly good idea of what to open from where" approach from when I first learned about preflop opening ranges and discarding everything since as a repeat of what I already know.

There're lots of little scraps of knowledge out there and they're not doing me any good when I dismiss them out of hand because they don't fit in with my "already winning game". Open minded learning here I come. Should be good.

funny, my pre-flop ranges by position vary for every table i sit at these days. Hell, if i change seat at a table they change. Identify table dynamics, identify who we want to play against, who to avoid, how to play against them (e.g. is it better to flat AK here? better to 3b 9Ts? better to play TT in a small pot pre or a big pot pre? how do they like to lose their money?

i really like the discussion on AQ from utg at micros, mostly my last post. http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...?highlight=utg

Cool daven, cheers for the reply, I'll think on it

Today's review:


$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Etrain99 ($28.80)
UTG+1 DeNmiX ($14.35)
CO outperformer ($25.40)
BTN Hero ($27.85)
SB Dabbar ($25)
BB <Bogolal> ($31.80)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is BTN
1 fold, DeNmiX raises to $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, DeNmiX calls $2

Flop: ($6.35, 2 players)
DeNmiX checks, Hero bets $4.75, DeNmiX calls $4.75

Turn: ($15.85, 2 players)
DeNmiX goes all-in $6.60, $6.6 to Hero ($20.1)?


Villain is 36/23 over 44 hands



Preflop: I think his range for calling my 3bet preflop is { 22+, AQ+, 32s+ } against which I've got like 52% equity.

Flop: On the flop, I think his range for calling my cbet is: {AQ+, 77+, 32cc-JTcc, QJs-KQs } against which I've got 62% equity.

Turn: Here I think his range for open shoving is: {77, AA, QQ, AQ, 32cc-JTcc} against which I have 32% equity, so I'm getting 2.125 : 1 and calling $6.60 to win way more than 2.125*6.6 so it's an easy call.


Now my reason for posting this hand is mostly because he showed up at the end with 3c2c here. If I didn't know that (say I'd folded the turn) then I would never have included that in his range. So when doing analysis like this do you guys think it's better to include bizzare shit like that in his range, which feels like it's being results-oriented, or to ignore it and build a "sensible" range, which feels even more retarded because I'm basing the decisions of my play against a range I know to be inaccurate. Curious to hear your thoughts.

Spoon made a comment in a thread i made a few weeks back in the BC about just because the guy shows up with a hand ONE TIME, doesn't mean he will always have that kind of hand in his range, which makes a shit ton of sense.

Inspired by Bbickes's well post, I've started playing a couple of HU SNGs per day, in addition to my 6m. Won my first two $5 ones yesterday, and today dranger told me he was playing the turbos, so I tried them out and played three $6 turbos, sadly taking down only one of them. They're pretty fun, and from all accounts it should be beneficial for my game. So with any luck I'll be doing some range work on those in here in the coming days, too. For today, however, I'm reviewing yesterday's 6max, where this hand took place:

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Dennisra ($19.70)
CO john-ecom ($41.80)
BTN Wahoo2006 ($34.35)
SB Hero ($25.90)
BB Lucci1966 ($20.35)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 5 players) Hero is SB
3 folds, Hero raises to $1, Lucci1966 calls $0.75

Flop: ($2, 2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, Lucci1966 calls $1.50

Turn: ($5, 2 players)
Hero bets $3.25, Lucci1966 raises to $9.50, $6.25 to Hero ($20.15)?


I only have 9 hands on villain, putting him at 67/33. So almost an unknown.


Preflop: I'm fairly arbitarily putting his calling range preflop at: { 22+, A9o+, A8s+, KT+, QT+, JT+, 54o+, 43s+, 64s+ }

Flop: On the flop I think his continuing range is: {22+, 54-87, 64s-97s, 98ss+, T8ss+, KTss+, A8ss+} against which I have 60% equity, so I'm good to value bet here.

Turn: On the turn I don't think he folds any of the range that beats me, so I think this was probably a bad turn bet, as my equity has dropped hugely. When he raises here I'm putting him on {33+, 76-87, 75s, 87s} against which I have 27% equity, or 2.7 : 1 and the pots offering me 2.84:1 so given that it's juuuuust a call, and I don't know if I can count on him actually raising 88-JJ on this board or not, so I think it's fine to fold.

Just stopping by Kiwi...

In the 32cc hand, I agree with being unable to put 32cc in his three-bet calling range preflop. I'm sure you gave the "WTF?" face when you saw these two cards as you did not have 32cc in his range. This is where you double-click his name and take a note. You can adjust against this villain by widening your three-bet value range and shrinking your three-bet bluff range (almost to nothing since it seems he calls three-bets OOP with a shitload of hands). Anywho, keep up the grinding! Perhaps a sweat tomorrow at the times we discussed?

Cool, cheers for popping in Yeah, sweat tomorrow would be great.

I feel like I can probably beat 25NL at the moment, but in keeping with the "dropping the arrogance" thing, I'm also dropping down to 5NL and grinding my way back up. Minimum of 10k hands at each stake and a decent winrate over that sample are my only requirements for moving back up to 10NL and then 25NL.

I'm also prolly gonna be withdrawing a couple of hundred from my roll, but that's for living costs, I always knew I was gonna be doing that, 'tis nothing knew.

Just thought I should keep this updated.


EDIT: This also means I've now withdrawn more money than I've deposited, so my roll is entirely poker-earnings. That feels pretty cool.

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Boolean ($5)
UTG+1 wfred ($10.81)
CO KingIv3rson ($5)
BTN Hero ($5)
SB jack nichols ($9.88)
BB ARG-ROIX ($6.35)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero is BTN
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, 1 fold, ARG-ROIX calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.32, 2 players)
ARG-ROIX checks, Hero bets $0.25, ARG-ROIX raises to $0.70, Hero calls $0.45

Turn: ($1.72, 2 players)
ARG-ROIX bets $1, Hero raises to $2.70, ARG-ROIX calls $1.70

River: ($7.12, 2 players)
ARG-ROIX goes all-in $2.80, $1.45 to Hero ($1.45)?



Villain is 50/24 over 76 hands. Never c/r'd before.


Preflop: Villain is calling with a really wide range, something like: {22+, A2+, K9o+, K7s+, Q9o+, Q7s+, J9o+, J7s+, 54+ 75s+}

Flop: As well as being loose, villain is also aggressive as shit, so I put his c/r range here as something like: {33, 44, 77, 88+, A7, J7s, Q7s, K7s, 65, 76, 75s} against which I have 32% equity, so the pot odds (a bit less than 3:1) make it a call.

Turn: Then turn's obviously great for me, I think he's calling my raise here with {33, 44, 77, 99+, J7s-A7s, A7o}, which I'm miles ahead of.

River: On the river I think he's shoving {33, 44, 77, 99, TT+, 65} which I'm ahead of so it's an easy call.

^^

Yeah that sounds legit, the thread of future bets that I won't be able to call probably should make this a fold. At the time it was just how spastic he'd been that made me willing to call.

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG npnstuff ($5.21)
CO Hero ($5.77)
BTN AlbertOS799 ($11.53)
SB ChrisFromNH ($5.25)
BB krapule33 ($5.67)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 5 players) Hero is CO
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.20, 2 folds, krapule33 calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.42, 2 players)
krapule33 checks, Hero bets $0.30, krapule33 calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.02, 2 players)
krapule33 checks, Hero bets $0.70, krapule33 raises to $2.20, $1.5 to Hero ($4.57)?

Villain is 29/20, had never before checkraised.


Preflop: I think his calling range here is something like: {22+, AJo+, ATs+, KJ+, QJ, 54s+}

Flop: Whoop whoop, hit my set, so bet out, thinking his calling range is something like: {99, TT, JJ+, ATs, KQ, KJ, QJ, 87s, T9s, JTs } which I'm way ahead of.

Turn: On the turn I expect his calling range to be basically the same as what it was on the flop, since with the exception of 87s all his draws either hit or picked up a pair. Instead, however, he check/raises and I think his range for that is more like: {99, TT, QQ, KK+, KJ, QJ} which I have 50% equity against. So I suppose I should call. Even if he's only doing this with better sets, straights and overpairs I still have like 40% equity so it seems like it was definitely a nitty fold here on my part. For some reason at the time I convinced myself KJ was the only holding that made sense.