|
|
So this guy kiwiMark does this crazy ass thing in his blog where he posts a hand + analysis fairly often and I figured what the hell, I'll give it a shot. So here's my first one. I realize its extremely tl;dr but it's more for my benefit than yours. 
weaktight | Hand | 99 - $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
MP is unknown (3 hands)
CO is 38/0/0 over 47 hands
BTN is 56/8/1 over 25 hands
SB is 70/4/1 over 27 hands
None of them have been 3bet yet.
Preflop- I thought about 3betting his minraise, but he's an unknown so I can't be 100% if he's continuing with a wide enough range to make it profitable, and there are 3 other players to act after I raise, none of which are likely to fold given stats. I opted to take a flop and continue if it was favorable, pitch it if it wasn't. Isn't poker easy?
Flop- Definitely one of the best flops for our hand. On the flop, all of their ranges are huge, we have an overpair vs massive ranges in a minraised pot vs an unknown opener. I considered c/r here, but I honestly wouldn't have felt comfortable getting it in vs the unknown. Nits ftw amirite. Anyways, I donk for a few reasons: 1.) I don't want the flop to check through, which is probably pretty likely to happen since its pretty dry. 2.) I'm getting called from an almost laughable amount of hands. 3.) Thin out the number of people in the pot, increasing my equity and decreasing the chance I get drawn out on on later streets. Looking at it now, I think my sizing could have been slightly larger, but its kind of negligible. I'm folding to a raise from CO, BTN or SB, butI may continue against MP if the others fold after his raise. Definitely pitching if he raises and gets a caller. Considering these 3's stats, I'm not surprised that they all called. I can probably make all their ranges fairly similar at this point:
{22-JJ, A2-AJ, K2s-KQs, K2o-KQo, Q2s+, QTo+, J2s+, J7o+, T6s+, 23s+, 45o+, 75s+}
For some reason Pokerstove is screwing up whenever I try to enter that range in 3 times vs my 99, but works fine with 2x vs my 99. Against two villains with that range, we're a 50% favorite, vs 3, we're probably somewhere in the 35-40% range. So we have a pretty large edge, but we're obviously vulnerable to being drawn out on, which is why I think my donkbet is the best line.
Turn- The turn is obviously another great card for us. It changes virtually nothing unless they hold 77 or already had my 99 beat. So I bet again going for straight value obviously. Now that the turn has essentially bricked, we can narrow their ranges down considerably, especially since its vs the player with the most 'reasonable' stats of the bunch. Assume he continues with all draws, and any pair 3x+, but folds all missed overs now. So his range looks something like:
{22-JJ, A2-AJ, K2s-KQs (clubs), K3o-K7o, Q2s+ (clubs), J2s+ (clubs), J7o, T6s+ (clubs), 23s-78s, 89s+ (clubs), 45o-78o, 75s+}
Against which we have 66% equity making it another clear bet. I hate my sizing looking at the numbers now. He has so many draws, pair + draws, etc that he's continuing with that I can bet MUCH closer to pot, getting more value, and charging more from his multitude of draws. I think somewhere ~55-65 would get a similar calling range vs this villain, and sets up an easier river shove.
River- Completely bricks off all the draws, few hands in his range improved to beat us, but a lot of the hands that were calling on the flop and turn are folding now. His range now is something like:
{22-JJ, A4, A7, K4, K7, Q4, Q7 (both Q's clubs only), J4, J7 (clubs), T7s (clubs), 34s-78s, 45o-78o, 75s, 97s}
Against which we have 60% equity. The thing is, I don't think his weaker 7's (say T7-) and 55-66 can call my pot size river shove. So if we cut those out, our equity is reduced to 53%, so I guess its still +EV. However, I think either betting larger on the turn setting up a smaller river shove, or betting a smaller amount on the river would be better. As played up to the river, I like a bet of 65-75 cents. It's an amount I think that he can't get away from with any of his one pair hands.
|
Reply With Quote
.
It was a pretty good night and we have plans to do something like it again in the near future. 
I hate this job so much lol.
Originally Posted by dranger7070
)
