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villain is 29/18/3 (VPIP/PFR/3b) over 90.
100% fold to 3b (4), 32% ATS (22), 14% fold to CB (1/7), and has check/raised 2/3 flops.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP ($37.70)
CO ($266.30)
Hero (Button) ($56.30)
SB ($20.25)
BB ($50)
UTG ($68.40)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A , 9
2 folds, CO bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, CO calls $2.50
i think a reasonable flatting range for villain here would be something like:
77-QQ,AJs-AQs,AQo. probably actually 4b/felts QQ some %. he may even flat AK sometimes but i suspect most regs will just 4b/call it off instead of playing it OOP in a 3b pot. KQs may also be in there.
breaks down to:
77 (6)
88 (6)
99 (3)
TT (6)
JJ (6)
QQ (3) discounted due to probably being 4b sometimes
AJs (3)
AQs (3)
AQo (9)
Flop: ($8.75) 3, 2, 7 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $5, CO raises to $13.25, Hero raises to $52.30 (All-In), 1 fold
flopzilla tells me he has no pair/no draw 37.5% of the time (he has an overpair 57.1%, a set 7.14%, naked ace high 35.7%) on this board. my cbet requires 5/5+13.75 = 36% folds assuming no pot equity or fold equity on later streets. so given that i never have 0% equity against his calling range, and can squeeze out some extra EV by profitably barreling some runouts, and i also expect to be C/R'd a decent amount of the time - and i think i can jam profitably over that C/R, this seems like a good cbet so long as i'm willing to play back at him some of the time when he C/R's me.
when he does check/raise me he has a really hard time repping a hand. he basically never has 33/22. and he may not even have 77 in his range (he probably shouldn't). he can't have any FD's due to my blocker, except maybe KhQh which i'm flipping against anyway. and i doubt he's ever got a de-polarised kind of range where he plans to C/R/call a hand like QQ/JJ to a jam (and neither should he really given he'll almost always be getting it in vs overpairs or FD+overcard hands)
my jam is risking 47.30 to win 27. 47.30/74.3 = 63% required fold frequency (actually less because i have ~16% equity against a reasonable calling range of {77,KhQh} and it doesn't change much even if he does have QQ/JJ)
given he has shown himself to be pretty C/R happy over a small sample, i imagine he would be C/Ring at least all of his backdoor flush draws (2 combos - AJdd,AQdd), as well as probably a decent amount of other Ax hands because they missed the flop and he thinks i'm full of shit when i cbet this board (plus he thinks he can make me fold AK)
so, some fold %'s vs different ranges (assuming he only felts 77,KhQh):
77,KhQh,AJdd,AQdd = 33% folds
77,KhQh,AJdd,AQs = 50% folds
77,KhQh,AJdd,AQs,AQo = 77% folds
77,KhQh,AJs,AQs,AQo = 79% folds
i think the latter two look more likely than the first two, which makes my jam +EV if my ranges are close. also, he may not even flat KhQh preflop, in which case all of those fold frequencies are higher, because he has less felting combos in his range.
as an aside thought - if we have decided we are going to attempt to re-bluff this guy after he has check/raised, which line is better?
A - jam flop
B - float flop to jam over turn lead (give him a chance to fire another street with a weak range?)
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