lol the Bogota guess much less impressive now that kmind explained it..



Update post:

# hands played this week: 1975
# hours played this week: 5.75
# sessions played this week: 6
Also watched 5 vids for a total of about 5 hours study time (probably a bit more since reading forums and making this post count as study time as well).

Total profit: $68.37 (which includes spew in the last two sessions)

All in all not a bad time investment considering I worked a full week mon-fri. At the same time, it can be improved upon and I want to try and put in more volume next week.

Now for my hand analysis:

Villain has TAG stats over pretty meaningless sample (38 hands).

Stacks:
UTG soblind ($25.35)
CO BAVARIAN-1 ($30.70)
BTN 4brain ($25)
SB H3mo87 ($30.60)
BB Hero ($25)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 5 players) Hero is BB
2 folds, 4brain raises to $0.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.50, 4brain calls $1.75

Flop: ($5.10, 2 players)
Hero checks, 4brain bets $3.75, Hero calls $3.75

Turn: ($12.60, 2 players)
Hero checks, 4brain bets $18.75, $18.75 to Hero ($18.75)?



This is my reasoning for 3-betting even though I think its pretty standard: Its very possible that villain is a reg (TAG stats so far and bought in full/reloading) and will fold a TON of his BU opens to a 3-bet. Even if he's not a reg he is still probably opening the BU fairly wide and will fold a decent amount. I'm never flatting A6o from the blinds vs this guy so the choice is between folding or 3-betting as a bluff. I think its a good candidate to 3-bet as a bluff because A6o is towards the top of the range of hands that I can't flat and can't 3-bet for value. The reason its one of the better hands in this range is because equity wise it does quite well vs his calling range. Obviously if he raises then we can comfortably fold.


So he calls the 3bet and we see a flop. We really don't have a good idea for what his range is like at this point since we don't have reads on how he reacts to 3bets. Its possible that he can have hands like 87s in his range, but its also possible that his range is very tight.

Here is a possible range that is somewhere between those two extremes.

AK (discounted) 6 combos
KK (discounted) 2 combos 2nd pair + GS
QQ (discounted) 1 combo set
TT 3 combos set
99 6 combos underpair
88 6 combos underpair
AQ 6 combos 2 pair
AJ 8 combos TP + GS
KQ 12 combos 2nd pair + GS
KJ/KJs (discounted) 6 combos Straight
QJs 3 combos 2nd pair + GS
JTs 3 combos 3rd pair + GS

pretty much all of this range connects with the flop in some way (with the exception of the underpairs) but there are lots of worse hands that could call a value bet we make. I think any pair plus gutshot is calling at least one bet and lots of the stronger hands raise the flop some % of the time (which makes it easy for us to play our hand). So, I like a cbet here for value and I'm not sure why I checked as played.

He decides to bet the flop and now I think we can eliminate hands like underpairs and JTs from his range as I would expect him to just check those behind. Its possible he may even check back a hand like KQ depending on how he plays, but its also possible he bets it assuming that when I 3-bet then don't cbet this flop I must be fairly weak.



The turn is an interesting card. Obviously its now much harder for him to have a better ace than us, so correct me if I'm wrong but that makes his range more polarized since its now more likely he either has something huge (FH/straight) or like 1 pair + GS. I can't remember if I checked with the intention of shoving or the intention of calling and re eval on river. Its possible I checked to see what his betsize would be like or to value bet most rivers if he checked behind. Once I get here in this way I'm not sure what the best plan is. I don't think I like c/shoving because we're not really getting called by anything worse. I guess c/c turn with the intention of c/f the river is the best here?? Thoughts here are appreciated.

Obviously I wasn't expecting him to overbet ship the turn and I hardly ever see this at 25NL. My first insinct is to just fold becuase in general, despite whatever line is taken, when people put lots of money in the pot themselves at these stakes they usually have a strong hand. Yet, I don't see why he would want to blow me out of the hand when he has a FH (unless he's worried about a K/J river killing his action). To me this looks like either a straight/strong ace or some bluff.

To make a profitable call we need 18.75/(18.75 + 12.60) = 60% equity. From the action on the flop I said I didn't expect him to bet weak pairs that often, so if he has a bluff here he has to be taking a hand like mid pair+GS and turning it into a bluff by overbet shoving it. This seems extremely unlikely when he can just take it to the river by checking behind. I'm not even going to stove this becuase I don't think its close enough to warrant it and this is a fold.

Comments/thoughts?

side note: lol looking at this monstrous post I'd be surprised if anyone actually read it. Even so its still a good exercise to put my thoughts down on paper..