zook's blog

1). good to see 600NL regs sometimes spew huge too lol

2) i think a turn c/r AI would be best if we needed to consider balancing, since otherwise the semibluffs in our turn double barrel range lose a lot of fold equity once our opponent sees us take this line with KK. since villain is an aggro donk i'm not sure what i wrote applies, but it's just something that occured to me while looking at the hand.

Originally Posted by bjsaust

I'm fairly sure that last one is best to check behind. Hard to see many hands calling 3 streets that you're ahead of there.

With our history I thought he was bluffcatching 55-88 enough for there to be value here, but in retrospect I was probably wrong about that.

Played one really short session today... spent the morning dealing with paperwork for a "real" job I have coming up and it's so fucking hot here in California right now that I can't stand to be upstairs in my office anymore. Why they didn't put central air in houses built somewhat recently in an area that's warm most of the year and regularly hits 90 to 100 degrees in the summer is beyond me.

I sucked out on a regular with AKo all-in pre vs. KK and then a few minutes later experienced near instant karma in this hand... villain seemed bad but not horrible, running 28/18/1.5, and I'd seen him make a couple of bad bluffs. I squeezed him on my very first hand of the table, 3bet him soon after and c/r'ed him recently on an AJx two-tone flop, so I was ready for him to play back at me.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($1188.00)
CO ($1118.90)
Button ($1343.00)
Hero (SB) ($1267.00)
BB ($1027.00)
UTG ($1015.00)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, 10
4 folds, Hero raises to $30.00, BB raises to $100.00, Hero calls $70.00

He's been 3betting a bit and I figure this could easily be light.

Flop: ($200.00) Q, 5, A (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $160.00, Hero calls $160.00

But the problem with flatting a 3b oop with ATo against this opponent is I basically can't fold now. I considered c/r'ing but thought he would probably 2 barrel bluff, so I tanked a little and called.

Turn: ($520.00) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $390.00, Hero raises to $1005.00, BB calls $377.00 (All-In)

I'm not sure if c/c or c/r is better here, but his bet sizing made me c/r. I didn't think even this guy would bluff his last $377 into a $1300 pot on the river if I c/c'ed. When he snap called my c/shove I thought I was toast, but nope

River: ($2054.00) 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $2054.00 | Rake: $3.00

Results below:
Hero had A, 10 (one pair, Aces)
BB had K, 4 (flush, Ace high)
Outcome: BB won $2051.00

NH z. If I had flopped TP in the situation against a villain and I thought I was ahead, I'm not sure I have the patience to let him fire the turn, and if he did, I'm not sure I have the guts to call it with TPWK....

BTW, where are you in CA? Didn't know you left Seattle....

Originally Posted by cardsman1992

BTW, where are you in CA? Didn't know you left Seattle....

Bay area, moved down here in April.

That's a nice area! Expensive (at least in SF and down the coast where I visited)...but vn...

He doesn't have the Commerce and Hawaiian Gardens by him though!

Originally Posted by zook

Sit at tables, play for 5 or 6 orbits until you get stats/reads on the players, sit out if there isn't a fish 3 or fewer seats to your right and join a new table.

If I can't have the fish one or two to my right I like to have them 2 to my left more than 3. That way he will be in the blinds when I'm CO/BTN and obv they love to play out of the blinds. Also we can flat call alot of raises on the button expecting the fish to tag along.

Originally Posted by HalvSame

Originally Posted by zook

Sit at tables, play for 5 or 6 orbits until you get stats/reads on the players, sit out if there isn't a fish 3 or fewer seats to your right and join a new table.

If I can't have the fish one or two to my right I like to have them 2 to my left more than 3. That way he will be in the blinds when I'm CO/BTN and obv they love to play out of the blinds. Also we can flat call alot of raises on the button expecting the fish to tag along.

Very good point. I've been getting annoyed recently playing with big fish straight across from me because it's really hard to isolate them.

Originally Posted by zook

Originally Posted by HalvSame

Originally Posted by zook

Sit at tables, play for 5 or 6 orbits until you get stats/reads on the players, sit out if there isn't a fish 3 or fewer seats to your right and join a new table.

If I can't have the fish one or two to my right I like to have them 2 to my left more than 3. That way he will be in the blinds when I'm CO/BTN and obv they love to play out of the blinds. Also we can flat call alot of raises on the button expecting the fish to tag along.

Very good point. I've been getting annoyed recently playing with big fish straight across from me because it's really hard to isolate them.

I'm honestly still not convinced by all this. I mean obviously I recognize that in an ideal world we'd be on the left of every fish everywhere. But certainly if there's a big big whale on a table running 50/10, its still better to be on his RIGHT t han not on the table at all??

I don't know.. I need to be convinced otherwise I think.. cause I still feel like it should be +EV.. even if not as much as in a better seat.

Haven't been feeling the blog this weekend. Posted my August results here. Didn't run well at the beginning and ofc I had a few sessions where I played like shit, but I can't complain.

Got a new desktop and finally got dual monitors and HEM setup. Very, very happy with everything so far. HEM is such a vast improvement over PT2. I've barely scratched the surface, but so far I'm loving all the 3bet stats (obv), the popup stats, the instant hh's and the "Active Player Details" window. I haven't done much self-analysis yet, but that's up next.

September started rough, running bad my first few sessions. Not the suckout, way below ev in all-ins type of running bad, the not getting KK+, not flopping well vs. fish, fish making hands against me, regs picking the right times to play back at me type of running bad. Thankfully one hand today got me back near even for the month.

Originally Posted by zook

Got a new desktop and finally got dual monitors and HEM setup. Very, very happy with everything so far. HEM is such a vast improvement over PT2. I've barely scratched the surface, but so far I'm loving all the 3bet stats (obv), the popup stats, the instant hh's and the "Active Player Details" window. I haven't done much self-analysis yet, but that's up next.

September started rough, running bad my first few sessions. Not the suckout, way below ev in all-ins type of running bad, the not getting KK+, not flopping well vs. fish, fish making hands against me, regs picking the right times to play back at me type of running bad. Thankfully one hand today got me back near even for the month.

How big are the dual monitors? I need me a couple new monitors!

Oh and sick hand.. mannnn I've never had set over set over set before. I feel like I'm due. I've never even been on the losing end of it before!

Originally Posted by griffey24

How big are the dual monitors? I need me a couple new monitors!

Main is 24" which I can 6-table easily on. Second is my old 19" which is just nice for HEM, my buddy list, etc.

Dang, I'm 8 tabling on a 17" flat.

I suck at life.

Last night I worked through HEM's first two leak finding articles and they were more helpful than I expected. For those of you who don't have it, the articles basically help you use HEM's hand filtering to compare your stats and results with a huge database of datamined players from 100nl to 1000nl. The articles give you winrates for various stats ranges (e.g. winrate goes up with vpip until ~25, it goes up with pfr until ~18, etc. etc.). I was in the highest winrate ranges for most stats but there were a few I wasn't... aggression factor, WWSF, call 3bets and double barrel %. The other thing I noticed is that sc's have been losers for me over my last 80k hands! This surprised me. I'm running way below AI expectation, but even adjusting for that I'm slightly negative.

So these articles reinforced some things that I knew in the back of my mind I should work on but hadn't taken seriously yet... 1) get a little less passive and think more about playing raise or fold poker, 2) call fewer 3bets, esp. oop (HEM's 3bet stats make these decisions a lot easier), 3) double barrel a bit less, and 4) be more selective playing sc's pre-flop. I'm going to do some more analysis, esp. on the suited connectors, to try to figure out how I'm playing them unprofitably, but I suspect it's the combination of calling too many raises pre-flop and then playing too passively with them post-flop.

So I was a man on a mission in my session this morning and played much more aggressively. I tightened up my vpip, 3bet more, 4bet more and folded to more 3bets. I'm really happy with the way I played. Unfortunately I lost a couple of flips and lost a big pot on what I think is a cooler, but that's poker.

Here's the cooler hand. Villain is a 5/10 reg, raises 18% in EP, folds to 3bets 65% and has a small 4b range. So I'm 3betting as a bluff obv. When he calls I put him on a mid pp, decent broadways or maybe a tricky AA/KK. I don't cbet b/c I have showdown value, I have to fold to a c/r and I might get one street of value from missed overs or lower pp's. Thoughts?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

SB ($1005)
BB ($1000)
UTG ($1805.40)
MP ($1987)
Hero (Button) ($1268)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7, 9
UTG raises to $35, 1 fold, Hero raises to $115, 2 folds, UTG calls $80

Flop: ($245) 9, 3, 10 (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($245) 7 (3 players)
UTG bets $205, Hero raises to $410, UTG raises to $1690.40 (All-In), Hero calls $743 (All-In)

River: ($2551) A (3 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $2551 | Rake: $3

Results below:
Hero had 7, 9 (two pair, nines and sevens).
UTG had 7, 7 (three of a kind, sevens).
Outcome: UTG won $2548

Definite cooler, I like the turn play a lot against his range as described...

wowowowowowow. Played some of my best poker of the year and had my worst day. Dropped 11 buyins at 2/4 and 3/6 Ran 6 buyins below expectation in all-in situations, and took some big coolers for stacks in 3bet pots (AA<99, AK <QTs, hand above). I'm happy with my aggressive play, I 3bet like a madman, my AF was 0.7 higher than normal and I finished the day positive in non-showdown winnings. Hopefully things will turn around tomorrow.

For laughs, my 2/4 line on the day:

UL zook don't worry it will turn around soon.

I hope it wasn't my telling you that you suck on msn that jinxd you!

That 15% W@SD hurts!! Those nights tilt me to no end...

Good sign of mental strength to come out of this looking forward to the next session and knowing you did things right.....good example for small stakes players.

Zooook keep grinding man, just a bump in the road.

I also admire your discipline at analyzing and fine tuning your play, even though u have a sick winrate. Props!

Just to touch on what you said about the HM articles. I ran through the first article when I got HM and it really helped my game to the point of stopping all the losses I was having in non showdown pots and I now run even or up. My problem became my showdown pots, I started being a losing player (12 BI's @$100NL and 10 @ 50NL in 2 months) since getting more aggressive and taking down more flops and turns, because from what I could tell was people were taking better hands to showdown vs me. I was getting slow played more often and building some big pots when trying to semi bluff and second barrel, causing larger than normal mediocre showdown hand losses.

I'm just letting you know what I went through and am still trying to fix. Getting both the showdown and non showdown lines to incline has been a problem for me but I think that you will solve this faster than I can, so let me know what you learn if you have the same problem.

I did do all the articles again yesterday too, and may have discovered a few new problems now, i.e: a high W@SD% and calling too many 3 bets for sure. I also do not fold to C bets and raises enough with TPMK and weak draws. Basically, I still need to be folding even though I am more aggro.

What do you mean by: "Getting both the showdown and non showdown lines to incline "?

I've noticed I have some big leaks in non-showdown pots (its only slightly positive), do you think doing the HEM articles would help? For example I saw a graph of 20BuckSpin i think, and his non-showndown winnings are HUUUUGE. I'm more passive than him, but i'm not sure if I can settle for a "just positive" non-showdown line. What do you guys think?

zook- unlucky day man, you'll turn it around! Won at Sd 15% is pretty sick running bad

Originally Posted by Alexos

What do you mean by: "Getting both the showdown and non showdown lines to incline "?

I've noticed I have some big leaks in non-showdown pots (its only slightly positive), do you think doing the HEM articles would help? For example I saw a graph of 20BuckSpin i think, and his non-showndown winnings are HUUUUGE. I'm more passive than him, but i'm not sure if I can settle for a "just positive" non-showdown line. What do you guys think?

I've told you this before, but I really think its your style such that your won at SD's are huge and without SD aren't. You c/c a lot and induce a lot of stuff, and as a result you get to showdown a ton. There's nothing wrong with that!

I don't want to derail Zook's thread so a quick couple thumb links.


$25NL right after I got HM and was about to move to $50NL before the first article.


some session last month right after the articles


This month until yesterday

jyms & Alexos: Over my last 300k hands my non-showdown winnings are tiny... like 4% of my total. And my winrate was about as high as I could ask for. I know Alexos's winrate is sick too, so obv non-showdown winnings can't be that important.

Looking at my 300k graph, I had a really sharp upswing starting last summer that correlated with a sharp upswing in non-showdown winnings. At my relative peak last fall my non-showdown winnings were 1/3 of my total! Then I had an 80k breakeven stretch in which I was running pretty far below all-in EV, but my non-showdown winnings were also on the decline. They went from a peak of $22k to a trough of -$5k! But shockingly, I was actually a modest overall winner during this decline (which extended past my b/e stretch obv), without running above expectation in all-in situations! Then over my past 80k hands I've been winning steadily both overall and in non-showdown pots.

Thinking about how my game has changed, I was super aggro when I went on my big upswing last fall. I was taking shots but playing almost the opposite of scared money. This accounts for my huge upswing in non-showdown winnings I think. Then I had some big losing days at 5/10 and 10/20 and I think the reality of the $ set in and I started playing less aggro. I also consciously incorporated some passivity into my game to take advantage of the crazy multi-barreling taggs. I think this correlates with the long, slow decline in non-showdown winnings, but it could also answer why I was able to make money overall while losing money in non-showdown pots... I was adjusting my game and trying to play more of a CoccoBill style.

Conclusions: 1) Non-showdown winnings are not necessary for overall winnings. In fact, you can win overall over a 100k hand sample while losing HUGE in non-showdown pots. 2) However, losing money in non-showdown pots is likely a leak. While I was able to win while losing money in non-showdown pots, my winrate was much lower than my average. 3) I'm going to keep an eye on my non-showdown winnings as an indicator that I'm being aggro enough, but I'm not going to worry too much about them.

Originally Posted by zook

, 3) double barrel a bit less

Why this?

I've been trying to barrel more if anything. If anything, I'd imagine a change should be to triple barrel more when you DO double barrel.. that seems like a decent change than double barreling less?

What are your contbet flop/turn/river numbers?

Originally Posted by griffey24

Originally Posted by zook

, 3) double barrel a bit less

Why this?

Just saw the "optimal" numbers in the HEM report thing and my double barrel % was higher.

Originally Posted by griffey24

I've been trying to barrel more if anything. If anything, I'd imagine a change should be to triple barrel more when you DO double barrel.. that seems like a decent change than double barreling less?

Meh. Maybe. People love to call in my games so I'm thinking double-barreling less is better.

Originally Posted by griffey24

What are your contbet flop/turn/river numbers?

66/51/50

I seriously love this thread. I vote for epic.

Originally Posted by ib3x

I seriously love this thread. I vote for epic.

i would expect nothing less! 5 spades!

Originally Posted by ib3x

I seriously love this thread. I vote for epic.

ty, hope you stick around ftr and post more

Thanks for the encouragement FTR. Played about as well as I can play again today and got kicked in the nuts... again. Only a couple of hands I think I misplayed, otherwise it was a day of losing flips and a fish hitting a 2 outer on the river vs. my AA for 250bb

I actually have some interesting hands to post but I can't think about poker any more right now. I'm going drinking!

Finally a good day yesterday followed by a horrible day today. This feels like my worst stretch of luck but every downswing feels that way. I have a "real" job for the next few weeks so I won't be playing or posting much. Not that psyched about the timing... I'm always most motivated to play when I'm losing and poker's going to be on my brain constantly. Nothing I can do about it though. At least my paycheck won't be vulnerable to any suckouts

Good luck with the new job!!!

BBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

On the won $ without showdown thing. If you were given the choice between:

1. High showdown winnings and losing non showdown winnings

2. Moderate showdown winnings and breakeven non-showdown winnings, or

3. Low showdown winnings and high non-showdown winnings

which would you choose?

Trick question, you'd choose whichever gave you the highest winnings overall.

Its something to be aware of, and could well indicate leaks to be plugged, but you dont want to drop your overall winnings just to bring them up.

Unless of course its just a shortterm adjustment thing and you're confident you can come out the other side with even higher overall winnings.

Since the last time I posted I've had one more day of running and playing badly followed by a much-needed winning session this morning. Something I've wanted to talk about for awhile now...

Playing back in 3bet pots

There's a lot of opportunity here against regs who 3bet a lot and cbet too much. The pot is already bloated and you can threaten opp's entire stack with a minraise, so you don't have to have a high success rate for bluffing to be +ev. Obviously I'm choosing opponents carefully and I'm a little bit careful about board texture, but it's been working pretty well. This month I've called 3bets and raised cbets 26 times and am up 6 buyins in those hands while only winning one hand at showdown. Of course I'm running good, but I still think the strategy is sound. I'll post a few...

1. Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

SB ($609)
BB ($114.85)
Hero (UTG) ($798.85)
MP ($625.50)
Button ($626)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8, 8
Hero raises to $21, 1 fold, Button raises to $71, 2 folds, Hero calls $50

Flop: ($151) 2, 10, A (3 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $115, Hero raises to $230, 1 fold

Total pot: $381 | Rake: $3

2. Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

Button ($2000)
SB ($2157)
BB ($1769)
Hero (UTG) ($2541.50)
MP ($5550.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, 7
Hero raises to $35, 1 fold, Button raises to $120, 2 folds, Hero calls $85

Flop: ($255) 3, 10, Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $185, Hero raises to $400, Button raises to $1880 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $1055 | Rake: $3

3. Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

UTG ($337.25)
MP ($918)
Hero (Button) ($1000)
SB ($2245.75)
BB ($1092)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, J
2 folds, Hero raises to $35, 1 fold, BB raises to $125, Hero calls $90

Flop: ($255) 5, Q, 3 (2 players)
BB bets $195, Hero raises to $390, 1 fold

Total pot: $645 | Rake: $3

4. This one was pretty surprising against one the biggest winning 2/4 regs. I think the turn shove is close but it's a good card for it.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

BB ($525.40)
UTG ($111.80)
CO ($245.20)
Hero (Button) ($400)
SB ($584.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6, 6
2 folds, Hero raises to $14, 1 fold, BB raises to $48, Hero calls $34

Flop: ($98) Q, 7, J (2 players)
BB bets $60, Hero raises to $130, BB calls $70

Turn: ($358) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $222 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $358 | Rake: $3

5. Obviously I have a lot more equity in this case but I was still surprised to get a fold, although villain is a bit nitty.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

Hero (CO) ($600)
Button ($600)
SB ($600)
BB ($1033.75)
UTG ($651.90)
MP ($202.90)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, Q
2 folds, Hero raises to $21, 1 fold, SB raises to $67, 1 fold, Hero calls $46

Flop: ($140) 9, 7, J (2 players)
SB bets $115, Hero raises to $252, SB calls $137

Turn: ($644) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $281 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $644 | Rake: $3

If you're IP are you still raising the first one?

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

If you're IP are you still raising the first one?

Yeah. It's closer but I think I fold a few better hands and it makes it so much easier to play.

Originally Posted by zook

Conclusions: 1) Non-showdown winnings are not necessary for overall winnings. In fact, you can win overall over a 100k hand sample while losing HUGE in non-showdown pots. 2) However, losing money in non-showdown pots is likely a leak. While I was able to win while losing money in non-showdown pots, my winrate was much lower than my average. 3) I'm going to keep an eye on my non-showdown winnings as an indicator that I'm being aggro enough, but I'm not going to worry too much about them.

Just wanted to say thanks for this. I made some adjustments back to a slightly more passive/comfortable style that was winning in the past for me. I think I need to make smaller adjustments and slowly fix my non showdown pot leak. Can you tell where I switched back after this post.



I had a very swingy couple sessions but they were more relaxed and less effort. My all in EV is down about 5 BI's too, so iPoker owes me that.

Thanks Zook

Looks like you switched around hand 5000? That's a pretty dramatic drop in non-showdown winnings but it definitely shows that they aren't required in a winning game. I've been thinking recently about how the type of game you're in really affects the relevancy of NSW. In tough games where players bet aggressively and know how to fold, it seems essential that you aren't losing a lot without showdown. But in more fishy, passive games you can afford to have negative NSW b/c you're going to get paid at showdown so much more. I would love to see CoccoBill's NSW graph if he has the software to run it...

GL jym, I hope iPoker lets your dark green line catch up to your AI EV soon.

Ok, officially running worse than I ever have. Had a nice +$4k day yesterday than proceeded to drop 10 buyins today. I wasn't playing great, probably could have saved myself 3 stacks but the rest was straight bullshit. Fuck poker!

Originally Posted by zook

Fuck poker!

+1

Originally Posted by Alexos

Originally Posted by zook

Fuck poker!

+2

FYP

Is it bad that I'm comforted that its not just me going through this atm?

Keep your chin up man. You are way too strong a player to not snap outta it.

Good news: I played some of my best poker this morning. I was disciplined and aggressive. Before my session I said that I would quit as soon as I made one bad hero call for a significant number of chips. I made it 2+ hours and 1160 hands before I made one and I quit right after. I think progress has been made.

Bad news: I dropped another 4 buyins for $3k. Not much I can do when I lose JJ to 99 AI pre for $1k, KK to JJ AI pre for $700, and fish flop 2pair and sets against my TPTK and overpairs. There's that 2p2 quote that gets thrown around there a lot: "You will run worse than you ever thought possible." I'm sorry to say that it's true. I'm trying to decide whether to drop 5/10 for awhile... I'm still rolled comfortably for it but my online roll is dwindling and some of my offline roll is tied up in investments. I'll probably stick to 2/4 and 3/6 unless I see megafish sitting at 5/10.

Good news: Big picture, big picture... still a 3.5ptbb/100 winner for the year and I still feel confident in my game. I still enjoy playing and thinking about poker. The Phillies are playing their best ball of the year and the Eagles are on MNF tonight. It's a beautiful day and I'm going for a run. When I get back I hope to be in the mood for another session!

Nice posts man. Staying positive is so hard to do and I definitely applaud and respect it. Sorry about the beats.

Afternoon session was much better, fought back to almost even on the day. I think my mindset is good... I'm trying not to think about getting back to even for September, just thinking about playing solid and not making mistakes.

I made a marginal calldown vs. a fish this afternoon, he was running 47/31/1.3 over 60 hands and he'd just lost a pretty big pot on the river so I thought he had some bluff in him.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

Button ($1065)
SB ($1000)
Hero (BB) ($1097)
UTG ($2205)
CO ($879)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, J
1 fold, CO raises to $20, 2 folds, Hero raises to $80, CO calls $60

Flop: ($165) 3, 7, J (2 players)
Hero bets $120, CO calls $120

Turn: ($405) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $280, Hero calls $280

River: ($965) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $399 (All-In), Hero calls $399

Total pot: $1763 | Rake: $3

Results below:
Hero had A, J (one pair, Jacks).
CO had 5, 5 (one pair, fives).
Outcome: Hero won $1760

Playing bad

I've been blogging a lot about running bad recently but of course this downswing hasn't been entirely due to bad luck. I'm prone to hero calls and spewy shoves just like everyone and I've made my share this month. It's not always tilt the way we usually talk about it... like it's a state of mind we sometimes descend into that makes all of our decisions worse... it's just, like ISF has been blogging about, a failure to be fully conscious in the moment... a failure to bring all of my poker knowledge and experience to bear on a critical decision in a big pot. I do think it's inevitable in some respects, playing 4-6 tables at a time for 5-6 hours a day, making thousands of decisions and only taking a few seconds for most of them. But fuck inevitability, we should strive for perfection and own our mistakes. Don't rationalize or try to justify them, own them and learn from them.

I made a depressing mistake in this hand when I shoved the turn for reasons I can't quite remember (something like, I have top 2 pair in a big pot and he wouldn't check behind this flop with good hands or strong draws so he probably has AsKx) and found out I was drawing dead. What I learned... probably a bad call pre-flop vs. this opp, a terrible shove and probably a fold on the turn... take more time for decisions in big pots, esp. deep.

But poker karma was kind to me and this afternoon a very good winning reg made a similarly bad play against me, which made me realize that we're all human, we all make big mistakes, and all we can do is own them, learn from them and be sure to make fewer than our opponents.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

BB ($1084.50)
UTG ($1052)
MP ($1130)
Hero (CO) ($1000)
Button ($2031)
SB ($959.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, Q
2 folds, Hero raises to $35, 2 folds, BB raises to $120, Hero calls $85

Flop: ($245) 9, A, 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $170, BB calls $170

Turn: ($585) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($585) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $710 (All-In), BB calls $710

Total pot: $2005 | Rake: $3

Results below:
BB had 9, 8 (one pair, nines).
Hero had K, Q (straight, Ace high).
Outcome: Hero won $2002

gf's out of town the next 3 days so I will be putting in many, many hands and maybe a tourney or two. And the Phillies are in 1st in the NL East!

I think you're right, often if we stopped and took a few seconds we'd change our mind. Its a matter of learning to do so.

Another problem is Poker rewarding those bad decisions sometimes. Like when you make a bad hero call but actually win. Its easy to think you're a soul reading guru, but in fact you just got lucky this time and most times he will have it.

I call it semi-perma-tilt.

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

I call it semi-perma-tilt.

I call it the "everyone is bluffing" syndrome. Which may result FROM semi-perma tilt yes.

If you didn't think he was bluffing in the KQ hand to some extent, then its prob an easy fold with two pair since everything else got there. IF villain in the hand above didn't think you were "on nuts or air, but he can't have nuts cause he checked through turn so he has air and is bluffing" syndrome..he would have folded too.

btw: i really like the jam on river

Had about the easiest +$1.5k session I can remember this morning, all of it won at 2/4. I only won one stack but I didn't lose any pots over 40bb. I felt really focused and I think I made some good folds. The good play carried over into the 6-max WCOOP this afternoon and I pwned my first two tables and was in the top 30 in chips for quite awhile. Some bad luck with AA and AKs did me in before the money, but I felt better about my play in this tourney than any I've played in a long time. I was going to play another session tonight but my brain is fried. So I'm railing ISF in the WCOOP and enjoying a few beers. 11!

you should practice better bankroll management...

Originally Posted by meeloche

you should practice better bankroll management...

$1k flips?

Went on a very nice heater this morning, which was sorely needed. Even though meeloche busted my Stars roll last night I ignored his BR management advice and took a shot at 10/20 b/c a couple of megafish were sitting. KK>QQ on the first hand, table broke and that was it. Other than that I ran a bunch of good hands into terrible players, the easiest recipe for success.

One interesting hand from the session... villain is 19/15/3.6, raises 29% from UTG and folds to 3bets 75% (although with only 600 hands there are sampling issues for the last two stats). A couple of aggro regs on the btn and bb and a spewy fish in the sb, so there's a chance of a squeeze. That plus the 75% fold to 3bet stat made me flat KK, which I rarely do. Post-flop comes perfectly and villain gives me his chips. I'm ahead of his valuebetting range on the river (JJ+,88,AJ imo) and there's a nonzero chance of an AK/JT-type 3 barrel bluff.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

Hero (MP) ($624)
Button ($600)
SB ($1174.40)
BB ($627)
UTG ($409.70)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K, K
UTG raises to $21, Hero calls $21, Button calls $21, 2 folds

Flop: ($72) 2, 8, J (4 players)
UTG bets $36, Hero calls $36, 1 fold

Turn: ($144) 2 (3 players)
UTG bets $118, Hero calls $118

River: ($380) 6 (3 players)
UTG bets $234.70 (All-In), Hero calls $234.70

Total pot: $849.40 | Rake: $3

Results below:
UTG had Q, 10 (one pair, twos).
Hero had K, K (two pair, Kings and twos).
Outcome: Hero won $846.40

edit: meant AK/T9-type 3 barrel bluff

Hmmm zook 75% fld to 3bet actually isnt that large, and i'd probably threebet in this spot. The rest is fine or you could raise the flop, either way.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Hmmm zook 75% fld to 3bet actually isnt that large

The average in my database of 2/4->5/10 6max players with more than 1k hands (huge sample) is 61%... HEM's database's average of 0.5/1->5/10 6max players (even larger sample) is 55%.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Hmmm zook 75% fld to 3bet actually isnt that large,

so that's exploitable, right? seems to me that everyone with fold to 3-bet >65% is asking for trouble...

75% fold to 3bet seems pretty huge, I only know a couple regs that have higher fold to 3bets!!!

Originally Posted by Alexos

75% fold to 3bet seems pretty huge, I only know a couple regs that have higher fold to 3bets!!!

me obv

btw great thread zook

Originally Posted by Genitruc

Originally Posted by Alexos

75% fold to 3bet seems pretty huge, I only know a couple regs that have higher fold to 3bets!!!

me obv

I'm pretty sure I'm one of them.

Genitruc.. your stat is probably 4-bet 75%

I'm the same way I don't call very many 3 bets at all but I'm 4 betting a decent amount instead.

Quick post before I head off for a backpacking weekend in Yosemite... last night and this morning I gave back half of winnings from my big session yesterday. I lost 3 big pots with AA and got set-over-setted twice, but I also misplayed a few 3bet pots, two for stacks. I'm thinking about creating a "worst of" set of hand histories... try to represent my most common mistakes so I can remind myself of them before each session. That will be first on my poker list when I get back. Enjoy your weekend!

Had an awesome weekend, might post some photos in the commune later. Played some this morning and got killed, down $4.5k in 500 hands I've been reviewing the session and I only think I made one big mistake, which I'll post below. I'm shocked I can lose that much while playing decently, but that's the way this month has gone.

Villain is an aggro reg running 21/18/3, 3betting 9% and cbetting 86% over a large sample. We have some spewy history, mainly pre-flop. When he c/c'ed the flop I put him on an underpair with 90% certainty. This guy cbets like it's his religion, esp after 3betting (89% in 35 3bet pots), he knows this is a board cbets aren't getting a lot of credit on and he knows I distrust him. My turn bet is questionable, but given our history I thought I could get one more bet out of an underpair and it would be easier on the turn than the river (a check through from me on the turn looks like a made hand going for pot control while a bet could be a float). His turn c/r was wtf... I just couldn't put him on a hand that beats me here besides 76s so I called. Definitely one of my biggest leaks is calling in these "wtf could he have spots".

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($1988)
SB ($2615)
BB ($1565)
UTG ($918.45)
Hero (MP) ($1487)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q, K
1 fold, Hero raises to $35, 2 folds, BB raises to $110, Hero calls $75

Flop: ($225) 6, Q, 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $140, BB calls $140

Turn: ($505) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $300, BB raises to $1315 (All-In), Hero calls $937 (All-In)

River: ($2979) 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $2979 | Rake: $3

Results below:
BB had 9, 6 (three of a kind, sixes).
Hero had Q, K (two pair, Queens and sixes).
Outcome: BB won $2976

Got some other work coming up for the next three weeks so I won't be playing as much. I'll try to keep posting interesting hands though.

Wow, my first thought was monster on the flop, with a mid pair less likely but still part of his range.

I don't think the stackoff is very good in a vacuum, but given history I can see the logic....

Lol, lately thats been quads for me. "Hmm, I wondered about a set, but the 2nd 6 makes 66 extremely unlikely and he shouldnt have a bare 6 so its only 33 I need to worry about".

And he flips 66.

flop looks like 99-JJ or a 67/56 type hand, possible 45s if he gets creative

In a strictly value sense (I don't play 5/10 mind you) what street is more likely to get called, the turn or river? Can you expect 3 streets here in a 3bet pot against like TT?

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

flop looks like 99-JJ or a 67/56 type hand, possible 45s if he gets creative

agree

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

In a strictly value sense (I don't play 5/10 mind you) what street is more likely to get called, the turn or river? Can you expect 3 streets here in a 3bet pot against like TT?

The turn imo (as I mentioned above) and no, but I might go for it vs. this opp.

Yea I should probably read the background/thoughts before I post but I'm lazzzzzzzzy

side note, I've been searching for that picture of you hammered now every time I open this thread to post in here but I cannot seem to find it. Frankly, I'm a little tilted over it.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

side note, I've been searching for that picture of you hammered now every time I open this thread to post in here but I cannot seem to find it. Frankly, I'm a little tilted over it.

Don't think you're going to get any help from me.

Haven't played since Monday, probably won't play much for the next couple weeks. I have contract work I'm busy with, and my month-old desktop crashed on Friday and it won't even boot up now I've had good luck with computers for years and then in the space of a couple of months I had a music hard drive and a brand new pimped-out machine crash. Oh well, the machine's still under warranty at least. So I'm going to focus on my "real" job for the next couple of weeks while Dell fixes or replaces my computer. I've been reading Jeff Hwang's PLO book recently so I might put in some hands here and there when I'm feeling poker withdrawal. I'll post anything interesting...