stats from penn and teller's Bullshit! episode on 12 step programs:

1) % of people that still go to AA after 12 months = 5%. that is basically the success rate.

2) % of people that quit drinking without AA = 5%.

Now, it is equal in number value, but when you take into account all the silly bullshit they make you do, it is surely -EV. i dont denounce non 12 step programs for drinking btw.

Also FWIW, i think that south park is incredibly on point on most, if not all, issues. they just dont get much credit for it because its a comedic show.