2014 NFLAMENTS

[surviva316]

"Relying on your defense to get a stop and then driving down for the winning score" is pretty much almost always bad.

Agreed.

The Eagles one was so glaringly, easily, inarguably awful from anyone with any modicum of Game Theory understanding.

Just go through the outcome branches. If you go can rely on a 3-and-out for your defense, then:

1) When you go for it and make it on 4th down, then you can score, kick it off deep, get the ball back with time still left and score again without ever needing an onside kick (which is a 10% crap shoot).

2) When you punt it, then you can get the ball back with ~3:30 left and no timeouts in a 1 TD + 1 FG Earns You a Coinflip's Chance at a Win scenario.

3) When you go for it and don't make it, then your D stops them for a fieldgoal, and you get the ball back with exactly as much time as you do in the "Punt it and force a 3-and-out" instance. You are now in a 2 TDs Wins scenario, which is notably worse than the TD+FG scenario with such limited time less, but they're hardly on opposite ends of the spectrum.

If you can't rely on a 3-and-out from your defense (which, again, with Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson running the read option against the Eagles D is a sizable consideration), then punting it is obviously disaster.

Basically, even if every single thing goes right in the punt-it-away scenario, then you're still forcing yourself to rely on a 1-in-10 onside kick scenario, and a Chip Kelly led offense can probably match those odds right there on 4th and 11. Add in the variables that there's a good chance that not everything will go right when you punt it and add in the consideration that missing 4th down and still have everything go mostly right is only a bit worse than the punt it away scenario, and it's just awfulawfulawfulawful.

The Falcons decision is only really bad because the coach was uninfluenced by the varying likelihood of making it based on down and distance. And, you know, those odds are a pretty fucking crucial factor when weighing "the odds." All Mike Smith (and the broadcasters) considered is that he's reached the punting down, he's on his own side of the field, and he has 3 timeouts. Auto-punt time!