4 team parlay

[bigspenda73]

I figure each one of my parlays could win 20%percent of the time.
(.8*.7*.7*.5=.196)
That means I give myself more than a 50% chance to connect on any of the 3 given parlays, meaning my actual return would be something like $55.

I'm not following the math here, what is that formula?

0.8*0.8*0.8 = 0.512, which means there is a 51% chance you go busto

If the odds are right, they say each parlay wins %10 of the time, which yields:
0.9*0.9*0.9 = 73% chance busto

If you think you have that edge then I don't think it's terrible to take it, assuming you are ok loosing it all.

Aside:
where are you getting 9:1 on a 4 team parlay (vegas)? That sucks

SportsBook - 13.1:1
Pinnacle - 12:1
Mansion - 12:1
Skybook - 11:1

The reason it was a 9:1 is b/c I was money lining a favorite in one of the parlays I first looked at, I think Baltimore. That brought it down.
The original formula was my chances that each team would win in each individual parlay.
I thought my two picks would win 80% of the time, the 3rd team 70% of the time, and the final pick 50%. All four would happen 20 percent of the time. So in poker terms I have a flush draw on the river but I get to run it 3 times. 3 chances to hit a 20% draw, that sounds pretty good to me, not sure how to figure the math out on that. The biggest odds I could get on my parly was 12:1. That's pretty standard for a 4 teamer right?