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 Originally Posted by wufwugy
Markets are like this.
I think perhaps you're not understanding why I compare markets to evolution. Evolution is a process of variants within populations being selected for over time. The market is a process of variants within populations being selected for over time.
I'm confused on why you seem to disagree with this, so I don't have much more I can say.
Evolution is. Our explanation and understanding of Evolution is very strong. You can look into the furthest reaches of the biological world and find that we're close on the money. And our understanding of how it works in an incredible testament to what happens when brilliant minds with a lot of information apply the scientific method.
When you talk about markets, you aren't talking on the same level. I've made this point a dozen times in a dozen different ways. What you're talking about is some imagined system that has rules for how every step will unfold. Rules like, people will allocate their money based on their preferences and so each person will allocate his surplus of work to another whose work they need and will keep it from another whose work they don't need. And so the system will grow those works that are needed and shrink those works that are not.
What that is is playing imagination games with rules, it is not anywhere close to the same plane as what happens when people discuss the mechanism of evolution.
The first link I shared shows how you can craft rules to make systems 'evolve', the second was an example of how people playing under the constraints of rules can evolve (which is where markets fit in), and both of them are a far cry from natural evolution and our understanding of it.
Basically, the thing you're missing is how hard it is to be right. How hard it is to guess the future.
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