From the ashes...

[ensign_lee]

Allrighty. Looking back over my NBA bets, I have deviated a lot from my original plan of just fading the public. I started using other handicappers picks to augment my own; I started using simulations to try to make “+EV set-like” bets where I should win over the long run. Well guess what? Those +EV bets did horribly, and it’s not as though I didn’t give them a chance.

In the last week or so, I’ve dropped the majority of my profits I made earlier during the season. Why? Stupidity: betting the board, thinking that I actually had an edge on every game. Remember the newbie circle of death with poker? Yeah…I did that with sportsbetting with the NBA.

One good thing did come out of this entire experience, though. If you’ll look at my record from before, even though I got destroyed basically (if you add back the ‘spread factor’ games as losses and switch that number of losses to wins, I think I’m still under 50%), I’m up money. This should show you that betting underdogs on the moneyline rather than simply the spread in the NBA is long term +EV.

Had I gone even 50%, I would still be down had I used the spread, because I would have had to pay more every time I lost (1.05 units for every spread bet on the underdog lost vs. 1.00 units for every underdog moneyline bet). And yet, I’m up, despite being <50%. Wow.

Two caveats to that: against the Spurs, the Mavericks, and the Rockets, if I go against them, I will be taking the spread. The spread factors into their games WAAAAY more than it does other teams in the NBA (like 25% as opposed to 12%), so it would actually be worth it in their games to take the spread over the moneyline.

SO….what to do now?

I’m starting over to give myself a fresh start and to hopefully distance myself from the stupidity that WAS ensign_lee’s NBA bets as of late. I will post my final record before in my old thread and leave it at that (it’s still +money; thank goodness for that). So from the ashes I shall rise and hopefully go at the NBA with a much better betting strategy.

Also, I think I can more accurately gauge factors that go into a bet now, so I won’t necessarily be flat betting any longer. I will be changing the size of my bets due to the following factors:

A respected handicapper posts a play – increase play by 1 unit
Public is on a play at 66.6+% - increase play by .5 units
Public is on a play at 70+% - increase play by .5 units
Public is on a play at 80+% - increase play by 1 unit
Reverse line move of a half point – increase play by 1 unit for every half point
Pinny lean is on a play – increase play by 1 units
Favorite becomes an underdog (without injuries and without reverse line movement) – increase play by 8 units (no; not a typo. I believe in this THAT strongly)

So, for example, let's say that the game is Utah @ Portland. The spread opened at Utah -3. Later on, the game moves to Utah -2 while the public is on Utah at 74% or so. Pinnacle is holding Utah -2 (+102) while everyone else is holding a Utah -2 (-110) on this play. However, a respected handicapper has posted Utah -2 as one of his plays.

That would mean that this would be a 3 unit play (1 unit for against the public by 70+%, 2 units for reverse line move of a whole point, 1 unit for Pinny lean, -1 units for going against a respected handicapper).

Now, some of you may be saying “What happens if you end up with something like a .5 unit play, or a 1.5 unit play?” Well, now we get to use our discretion. For the former, we get to decide if we actually want to make the bet or not. For the latter, we get to decide if we think this play is strong enough to warrant a 2 unit play, or whether it is merely ‘a strong 1 unit play’.

One thing I’m going to be trying focus on is discipline. It always seems that I start off disciplined and then get my face owned when I grow undisciplined with my bets. So that’s why I created this system; so that I couldn’t let my emotions get the better of me. And I need a favor from y’all: if you see me doing stupid shit and not practicing what I preach, call me on it. I need it. Please.

Allrighty. Here we go; ensign_lee vs. the NBA, rd. 2.

[bigspenda73]

I like you're analyzation of your faults, it's good to take an honest look and if it isn't working how you would hope you should find a way to change it. Goodluck to ya and I'll probably be taking your bigger plays as my NBA plays. The one thing I did notice after you started off hot was the exponential amount of bets you started making. Just remember there is not an edge on every game and it's alright to not bet each one.

Hey man, good luck to ya and your stuff has really helped me so far!

[swiggidy]

ball on balla

[zook]

Two good pieces of advice above:

Just remember there is not an edge on every game and it's alright to not bet each one.

I need to remind myself of this. Going to try to limit myself to 2-3 NBA plays a night and up the units when I feel good about a play.

And of course:

ball on balla

It's a marathan not a sprint, you'll come back strong lee.

[ensign_lee]

First game up is

Atlanta Moneyline (+160)
1 unit at Pinnacle

Public is on Chicago at around a 75+% clip. The line, however, has moved, but only 1 point. The +147 is the current price; I'm going to wait until gametime to get a better price and then will update the odds in a future post.


New York Moneyline (+175)
1 unit at Pinnacle

Public is on Denver at around a 4:1 clip (80% or so). However, this line HAS moved like you would have expected it to, 2.5 to 3 points in the right direction to try to induce money on the underdog. Therefore, this is only a 1 unit play. I will try to wait until closer to gametime in order to get the best price on this play.

Sacramento Moneyline (+119)
4 units at Pinnacle

I'm going to lock this in now, because this line seems to be freefall to 0 for some reason or other. I don't see any injuries which should have affected this line the way that it has been affected. Reverse line move from the opener of Phoenix -3 to now Phoenix -2. Also, a handicapper that I respect in the NBA has posted this as one of his plays. This will be my first 'non-1 unit play'.

Memphis Moneyline (+241.08)
1 unit at Matchbook

Public is on Miami at around the 66+% threshold, but the line has moved 1 point in the correct direction. However, Pinnacle has a slight lean on Memphis, so that's enough to make this a 1 unit play for me.

{edited to add the prices I got on Atlanta and New York}

[ensign_lee]

One more that qualifies today:

Minnesota -1.5 (-105)
2 units at BetTrojan

Pinny lean has been on Minnesota for the better portion of the day, with them holding Minnesota -1.5 (-111) while the rest of the world held Minnesota -1.5 (-110). Also, a respected handicapper posted Minnesota -1.5 as one of his picks today. Public is pretty divided about this game, split right down the middle, so not factor there. Erog 1+1 = a 2 unit play.

[ensign_lee]

0-5, -8.05 units. That's freaking great...

So that means I am like 0-10 my last 10 picks and something like 4-34 my last 38 picks.

Awesome...

Discipline, ensign_lee. Discipline.

[bigspenda73]

Tough break on the SAC game, thought they should have pulled it out last night.

Lee, why are you betting games where the lines moves properly. Do you think you hold that much of an edge betting these games? Don't know if you keep the m/l records like you do in football but how profitable has this range really been for you +100-+175?

Anyways, don't worry about it man, after our Texans win today it'll all feel good.

[ensign_lee]

Hey bigspenda:

Even when the line moves in the right direction, I still feel as though I have an edge. It's not as big as when the line moves in the wrong direction (hence why those bets are much bigger), but often the public is still wrong enough to make those plays +EV. If you look back through the historical records using closing lines (after they've been adjusted for the lines moving in whatever direction, usually in the right one), the public still ends up losing more often than winning.

One bet to to continue the torture tonight:
Seattle Moneyline (+230)
2 units at BetTrojan
Public is on Detroit, and yet the line has gone from DET -6.5 to -6. Public is on Detroit at around 70% or so, give or take a percent.

So, uh...if you're fading me, the play would be either DET -6 or DET moneyline.

Hopefully, this will be the first win.

[ensign_lee]

And the ashes continue to smoulder.

YTD: 0-6
Units Lost: 10.06
Spread Difference Factor: 2 games

[ensign_lee]

For tonight, I have:

Sacramento Moneyline (+152.88)
1 unit at Matchbook

Public is on Dallas at around a 3:1 clip . Line hasn't budged.

So, if you're fading me (which would have been EXTREMELY PROFITABLE over the last 40 plays or so. I'm like 4-36 my last 40), the play would be Dallas moneyline or Dallas -3 (-115) at skybook.

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 0-7
Units Won: -11.06
Spread Difference Factor: 2 games

~~~
Woot go me.

Allrighty, we have the following on deck for tomorrow. The bet sizes have been created based on the rules created earlier, so you don' thave to worry about me chasing.

Atlanta Moneyline (+200)
3 units at Skybook
Public is on Utah at around 75% or so. Pinny lean was heavy on Atlanta up until about 3 minutes ago. Line has not budged, except for reverse line movement of a half point at a few books. I'm waiting to get the best line on this.

Philadelphia Moneyline (+215)
1 unit at Pinnacle
Line has moved a half point in the wrong direction according to Pinnacle's opening line. A point and a half according to Cris's opening line. Public is on Indiana as a 6 point favorite at atround a 2:1 clip. Huh...

[ensign_lee]

YTD: 0-9
Units won: -15.06
Spread Difference Factor: 2 games

~~~
Atlanta had a fucking 21 point lead going into the fourth. I cannot believe that they just lost. Not only did they lose, but tehy also failed to cover the spread at the last possible shot too. Holy freaking crap. I am cursed.

[ensign_lee]

Let the massacre continue. I actually have two bets that fall into bettable regarding these systems tonight:

Sacramento Moneyline (+127.4) @ Denver
8 units at Matchbook

Why is this bet so big? 3 whole points of reverse line movement = 6 units. 70% or so of the public on Denver = 2 additional units. Ergo, 8 units. This is do or die, I guess. Uh oh...

New York Moneyline (+211.68) vs. Chicago
3 units at Matchbook

3 units because of 80% of the public being on Chicago, and yet the line not budging.

Here goes nothing...

[bigspenda73]

Tongiht's the night. 3 pts reverse movement? Seriously? Damn I'm all over it. Goooo Kings?

[bigspenda73]

Hold'em Dice...Hold'em

[bigspenda73]

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOT

NICE HIT SIR, see all you needed to happen was to have me on your side. I apologize.

[zook]

Way to comeback lee! Don't love the 8 unit play after your long losing streak, but obv you knew what you were doing

Congrats!

[ensign_lee]

WOOOOOOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ensign_lee]

Wow!!! I just added up the math. And I'm in the black!!!

YTD: 2-9
Units won: 1.50

WooooooooooOOOOOOOOOOOT!

[chris1195]

Sweet.

2 units (+130) pinnacle KINGS over nuggets

congrats guys.

[ensign_lee]

Thanks for having faith in me, guys. I'll admit; I was losing faith in myself.

Let's hope last night wasn't just a fluke. Here's what I've got:

Detroit -10 (-107.14)
1 unit at Matchbook
Pinnacle has been trying to shoo away Detroit money all day, trying not to budge from Detroit -10 (-112) while everyone else has Detroit -10 (-110). Good enough for me.

LA Clippers +7.5 (-105)
2 units at BetTrojan
Pinnacle has been trying to shoo away money from LA all day, just like Detroit, but even more so. I don't think they've held the best number on LA for longer than 15 seconds today, if that (I certainly haven't seen it). Their lean on LA is even heavier than that on Detroit, holding (-113) or even (-115) at times on the number that everyone else was holding at (-110). The line move from +9 to +7.5 is what makes this play worth an extra unit for me.

[ensign_lee]

Memphis Moneyline (+159)
3 units at Bodog

Public is on Utah at around a 2:1 clip. Yet the line has moved from an opener of +4.5 to +3.5 now. 1 full point reverse line movement = 2 units. 66% or so = 1 additional unit. Ergo, 3 unit play.

Here goes... :/

[ensign_lee]

2-1 on the night, with Memphis dropping the game in the last seconds, but covering. Moneyline though...so that doesn't do ME much good. :/ Won 3 units, lost 3 units. No juice. So in essence, nothing happened; MUCH better than a loss across the board, though.

YTD: 4-10
Units Won: 1.5
Spread Difference Factor: 3

[ensign_lee]

Wow; haven't seen a game that qualified for this in awhile.

Miami +1.5 (+104.76)
9 units at Bodog
The heat went from a favorite to an underdog on public money (depending on your site, public is either at 60% or 70% on LA). I got a really good line, so I also added an additional unit to make it 9. Here goes nothing...

[zook]

Damn lee! You're on fire in the NBA all of a sudden! Congrats.

[bigspenda73]

NICE HIT SIR

[ensign_lee]

Thanks guys!

For tonight, I have the following bet up. It also qualified like the previous system did: a favorite turned underdog based on public money. The public is on Chicago at anywhere from 60-80%, depending on where you get your information from. The line has moved from Minnesota -1 to Minnesota +1 or +1.5, depending on your book. Wow.

I will be putting up at least 8 units on this one and maybe 9, like I did last time. I'll either be on Minnesota -1 (+whatever it will be) or Minnesota Moneyline (+whatever it will be), depending on which one I think will give me a better value. I'll be waiting until closer to gametime to place this, as I think I'll get better value that way as well too. Just thought I'd give y'all a heads up as to what I was going to do so that you have time to do the same.

Oh: and record update from last time:

YTD: 5-10
Units won: 10.93 units
Spread Difference Factor: 3 games

[zook]

Thanks lee. Already had Minny, a couple of cappers posted it, but I'm going to up it a unit or two. Go T'Wolves!

[ensign_lee]

I've got one other bet tonight:

Boston Moneyline (+whatever it will be. Currently at +220 at any VIP book, theGreek, BetJamaica and Bodog)
3 units

1 unit for the public being on Denver a 70+% or so. 1 unit for Pinny holding the worst price on Boston's moneyline. 1 unit for Pinny lean on Boston = 3 units.

Line opened at +5.5 at Pinnacle, but at +7.5 at BetCris and Olympic. It stayed at 7.5 for about an hour before moving to 6.5, where it held for a grand total of 10 minutes before moving to +6, where it's been all day. I kind of want to up this to a 4 unit play because of this, but I think I'll stay conservative and keep it a 3 unit play for now. Hopefully, this bites me in the ass (because that means I won my Boston moneyline bet! )

So uh, go Celtics?

This will also be another bet that I will wait until gametime to hit up for added value. When shopping moneyline prices, the price differences in value really do add up.

[ensign_lee]

For the record, I took

Minnesota -1 (+111)
9 units at Pinnacle

[ensign_lee]

Also, for the record, I took

Boston Moneyline (+220)
4 units at Nine

I ended up biting the bullet and putting four units on it. Hopefully, it pans out.

[chris1195]

good luck lee.

i piggybacked you for:

minn +1 (+100) 1.5 units @ pinnacle
boston m/l (+220) .5 unit @ bodog

not quite as brave as you for 9 units but getting better lol.

(dumb question alert: i have been assuming 1 unit = around 2 percent of bankroll right? )

[zook]

(dumb question alert: i have been assuming 1 unit = around 2 percent of bankroll right? )

Yes, 1-2%. You could make it as high as 3% if you aren't making a lot of bets or many multiple unit bets, and if you're betting more often or don't feel confident in your edge, you could make it lower. My NBA/NCAAB unit is ~0.6% of my BR and my NFL unit is 1%, but I make a lot of bets and a lot of multiple unit bets.

[ensign_lee]

HOLY FREAKING CRAP!!!

I am glad I didn't watch that game. Would have had a freaking heart attack watching Chicago come back from behind like that. I only caught the last :02 of the game thankfully (just a shot made by Minnesota and then Chicago not forcing overtime). WOOOOOH!

and Chris - 1 unit = 1% of my initial bankroll. I recalculate my unit size (according to a new bankroll) from time to time, but right now I haven't changed it since quarterway through the NFL season.

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOH!!!!!!!!

[chris1195]

Minn by 2!
nice one lee.

wow that was as close as you can get.

[ensign_lee]

Yeah...there's a reason I try not to watch NBA games that I bet on (especially when they're big bets). I would hav ebeen going absolutely crazy.

4th quarter:
Chicago -31
Minnesota-18

[zook]

Yeah, nice hit lee! Thanks to you, it's already a + night for me in the NBA, here's hoping my other three come in...

[ensign_lee]

Split the 2 today, going 1-1. Thank goodness Minnesota left just enough in teh tank to win that one by two. I can't believe they gave up a 25 point lead...sheesh.

At any rate, record update:

YTD: 6-11
Units Won: 17.01

Tuesday: 1-1
Units Won: 6.08

[bigspenda73]

Hah, leave it to me to take the wrong game....

nice work LEE, next 9 unit play you post, Im on it

[ensign_lee]

Hah. It's ok BigSpenda. It happens.

I think I need to cut back before I spin out of control again. That Boston play really shouldn't have been any more than a 3 unit play. Stupey me...

Oh well. I want to make sure I don't spin out of control this time, so I will be posting reflection posts like this from time to time.

[bigspenda73]

I liked the Boston play much more than the Minny play just from knowing the NBA. But hey, sometimes ignorance is bliss.

[zook]

I liked the Boston play much more than the Minny play just from knowing the NBA. But hey, sometimes ignorance is bliss.

Really? I had a unit on Denver... Boston has been hot recently, but they're poorly coached and pretty young. Denver on the other hand has Iverson starting his first game, eager to prove himself to the fans and his new teammates. I think he's going to be money for them for quite some time. Add to that how tough it is to play in Denver and this was a no-brainer.

[ensign_lee]

Going against Zook for my one play tonight, to a point where we could both lose

New York Moneyline (+196)
1 unit at Matchbook

Public is on Detroit at about a 2:1 margin, and yet the line has moved from its opener of 5.5 to 5.
.5 units - 66%
1 unit - reverse line move one point

Using discretion, this would make this a 1 unit play. I'll post the line I get later; I just wanted y'all to know where I stood for the night.

Also,
Memphis -1.5 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan
Pinnacle has been trying to keep money away from Memphis all day, posting a -1 (-113) earlier in the day while the line was still -1 (-110). Now, they're posting a -1.5 (-109) while everyone else has a -1 .5 (-110). Actually, a few shops still have -1 (-110), but not enough.

And a respected handicapper also posted Memphis as one of his top plays; however, he hasn't been too hot with his NBA big plays just yet. We'll see what happens in teh future.

In accordance with this info, that would make this play a 1 unit play (I'm trying to be conservative here.

[zook]

Good call on the Knicks, lee. I'm sure you're glad you weren't watching it

[ensign_lee]

Haha. I dunno. Mighta been fun, since I didn' thave 9 units on it or anything. Thanks for the kudos, though.

[ensign_lee]

1-1 on the night, with a profit of +.91 units because of Boston winning.

YTD: 7-12
Units Won: 6.99

[ensign_lee]

One bet up for tonight:

Seattle Moneyline (+295)
1 unit at BetCris

Just under 70% of the bets are on Denver, yet the line hasn't budged. Good enough for me to warrant a 1 unit bet.

[ensign_lee]

Orlando Moneyline (+238)
2 units at Matchbook

Well, when I took this line, it looked liek reverse line movement, plus 70% on the other side, but uh...whoops. And I got the ass end of hte line movement. Yippee me...

[ensign_lee]

Charlotte Moneyline (+193)
2 units at Matchbook

New Orleans Moneyline (+156)
4 units at Pinnacle

---
Both are fading the public plays. Also, the Denver one has a 1.5 point reverse line move.

[ensign_lee]

Also,

Philadelphia Moneyline (+165)
2 units at Matchbook

Again, fading the public, but this time with a Pinny Lean.

Sorry for the short replies, I'm a little busy tonight.

[ensign_lee]

Orlando fell short by one point. Darn. Oh well. 3-1 on the night with M/L dogs is a night I'll gladly take.

Record Update:

YTD: 10-14
Units Won: 17.36
Spread Difference Factor: 4 games

[bigspenda73]

Damnit Lee, tell me when you're going to go 3-1 ahead of time plz. Nice night sir

[ensign_lee]

Thanks bigspenda. I'll try to keep that in mind for ya.

For tonight, I only have the one bet:

Minnesota Moneyline (+116.62)
3 units at Matchbook

Public is on New Jersey at right around 65-66%. Reverse line move from +3.5 (if you used opening lines at Cris or theGreek) or from +3 (if you used opening lines at Pinnacle).

Judgement call by me to make this a 3 unit play instead of a 2 unit play. Cris and theGreek held the opening line up at +3.5 for almost an hour until Pinnacle popped it out at +3 when they adjusted. The 66/65% is almost enough to not increase this as a fade the public play, but just barely makes it. The combination of these two makes this +1 unit.

Then, the reverse line movement from +3 to +2 adds 2 units. Ergo, 3 unit play.

{edited because I put 2 units before when it should have been 3}

[ensign_lee]

Minnesota couldn't pull it through for us today. Darn. Oh well.

YTD: 10-15
Units Won: 14.36
Spread Difference Factor: 4 games

[ensign_lee]

Philadelphia Moneyline (+390)
2 units at matchbook

Sorry. no time. ROCKETS GAME AT TOYOTA. BYES!

[ensign_lee]

Darn. So that makes my record:

YTD: 10-16
Units Won: 12.36
Spread Difference Factor: 4 games

[ensign_lee]

Allrighty. To kick off Tuesday, I have the following:

Philadelphia Moneyline (+286)
2 units at BetTrojan

70-75% of the public is on Denver, thinking that AI is going to light his old team up. And yet the line hasn't moved. I'm thinking AI will try to do too much and end up losing the game for the Nuggets, essentially playing 1 on 5 the entire game. Plus, who else would know how best to beat AI than his old team?

Chicago Moneyline (+150)
2 units at BetTrojan
I'm averaging the opening lines and saying the line opened at -4. Pinnacle came out with it at -5, theGreek opened it at -3.5 (and never budged), and BetCris opened it at -4.

The line is now -3.5. I'll just count that as a half point line move. The public is on Phoenix at just barely 66% or so, but the Pinny lean is sitting on Chicago. Ergo, 2 units.

[zook]

Ridiculous loss in Chicago, but nice f'ing hit on Philly!!!

[ensign_lee]

Hah. I just looked up the box score. Way to get outscored by 11 points in the fourth, Chicago. Freaking ridiculous...

Oh well.

YTD: 11-17
Units Won: 16.08
Spread Difference Factor: 5 games

[zook]

Not just that, Chicago lead the whole game until less than a minute left in the 4th. And down 2, Phoenix went for the win instead of the tie and Barbosa hit a 3 with 1 second left.

[ensign_lee]

Not just that, Chicago lead the whole game until less than a minute left in the 4th. And down 2, Phoenix went for the win instead of the tie and Barbosa hit a 3 with 1 second left.

D'oh...

[ensign_lee]

Boston Moneyline (+142)
2 units at Pinnacle

Reverse line movement two points from +4 to +3. 66+% of the public. Rounded down from 2.5 units to 2.

GO Boston?

[ensign_lee]

Boston covered, but lost the game, so no dice for me. In fact, it seems like half the games today, the underdog covered, but didn't win. Dang.

At any rate, record update:

YTD: 11-18
Units Won: 14.08
Spread Difference Factor: 6 games

Blech...looks like I'm on a little losing streak again.

[ensign_lee]

Been a little while, eh? When I was traveling to/from New York and hanging out with people there, didn't have too much of a chance to get online and handicap. Probably a good thing; things I would have bet on just lost while I was in NY.

Allrighty. I DID have time to do some work tonight, so here goes:

For tonight:

New York -5.5 (-110)
1 unit at Skybook

Pinny doesn't seem to want any money at all on New York and has been like that all day, first serving up a NY -6 (-111) and now serving up a NY -6.5 while everyone else has NY -6.

Of course, with the kickout of US residents, I'm not sure that this should be that significant, but I guess we'll see...

[ensign_lee]

Indiana +4.5
1 unit at Skybook

Public is all over Dallas (I thought about taking Dallas on first glance as well ), but the line hasn't budged...at all. So here we are.

[zook]

Welcome back. Both your teams are hot, although I would have trouble betting against Dallas playing an Eastern Conference team. GL tonight!

[ensign_lee]

Thanks, zook. Woot go FTR team!

Orlando +5 (-110)
1 unit at Skybook

Just under 70% of the pulic is on LA, but the line has gone from -4.5 to -4. Yay free half points.

[ensign_lee]

One from another capper:

Memphis -1 (-110)
1 unit at Skybook

That's my reasoning and I'm sticking to it.

[ensign_lee]

Wow. I only barely pulled off 2-2 tonight, with both my dogs covering, but not winning. Wow. So instead of losing 4.2 units, I lost .2 units. Not a bad tradeoff, I guess.

Anyhoo..

YTD: 13-20
Units Won: 13.88

[ensign_lee]

With the current unsteady state of the offshore industry, I'm not sure any 'leads' or 'leans' can be trusted.

Until the whole flabbergasted mess gets sorted out, I doubt I will have many plays, if at all.

[ensign_lee]

With the current unsteady state of the offshore industry, I'm not sure any 'leads' or 'leans' can be trusted.

Until the whole flabbergasted mess gets sorted out, I doubt I will have many plays, if at all. Just thought I'd point that out, in case anybody was still reading.