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[Savy]

So the combinations are 12W, 12W1L, 12W2L, 11W3L, 10W3L, ..., 1W3L 0W3L

In each of these combos the final result has to be a W when 12W and a L when 3L so can be thought of as a combination of all results except the last.

Each of these can be worked out using (total outcomes)!/ [(W outcomes)!(L outcomes)!]

Example - 8W3L can be thought of as a combo of 8Ws and 2Ls so 10!/(8!2!)

Each outcome has a probability of (x)^W * (1-x)L where x is your win%

By multiplying the # combos with the probability of each happening we get how likely that result is.

edit

Then I assume we can work out our avg # of wins just by doing # wins * how likely for every result.