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 Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Originally Posted by ensign_lee
It is almost NEVER +EV to hedge a bet.
The only time is when you want to 'take a position' on a game beforehand.
Say Team D +7 is +101 now. You're sure that you'll be able to get a better price on Team C -7 (same game) later.
So teams A and B win and Team C is up. But LOOKIE! Team C is now -7 (+118) or even -6.5 (-101)! NOW It's +EV to hedge.
But really, if you don't have enough confidence in a game to let your parlay ride out, you shouldn't include it in your parlay.
Otherwise, all you're doing is eating juice at both ends of your last game in order to do hold what you would have held if you hadn't included that last team at all.
That was confusing..... 
I read Yao's article about when its okay to hedge in the latest 2p2 magazine, and he stated you shouldn't hedge unless the result of that one game affects a large portion of winnings. Say, in my example, Games 1, 2 and 3 win and so whether I win $1450 or lose $100 is decided on Game 4. After doing the math, if moneyline is still Indy -170 then by hedging I'd be guaranteed $475.
What you're saying is, instead of doing the parlay just to hedge the 4th game, bet a unit on all 4 games, my risk would be $448 to win $460? I dont see how or why it would be bad to parlay then hedge the 4th game if I risk less for the opportunity to win less?? I must be missing something here.
NOOOOO....I did NOT say that it would be more +EV to just bet the four straight (although it really should be, but that's another topic).
By taking a 4-team parlay, you are in essence saying:
"I want to place a bet on Team 1; if it wins, I want to put all the winnings plus my original stake on Team 2; if it wins, I want to put all the winnings plus my original stake on Team 3; if THAT wins, I want to put all the winnings plus my original stake on Team 4."
So if you first three teams win and you hedge out of your last bet, what you are in essence doing for the last game is:
"I already have a bet on Team A to cover +2.5 (or whatever it is) at (-110). I would now like to put a bet on Team B to cover -2.5 at (-110) so that I can cover my ass and keep the money I won on the first three teams."
BUT...if you just hadn't included the fourth team in teh first place, you'd be good to go, AND you wouldn't have to eat the juice.
Now, what I was saying earlier was that it is ONLY +EV to hedge when you got something like Team A +2.5 (+102) and then later, when you were thinking about hedging, you also got Team B -2.5 (+108). See how you're not paying juice out both ends in this example, but you were earlier?
I hope that makes more sense. Back to studying finance...
{edited to include a well placed 'not' that I forgot to type earlier}
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