I hope you're wrong because if you're right it will take foreeeeeeeeeeever. Medicare will be reformed over and over and over before it collapses from "bankruptcy". Sovereign currency governments don't deal with the same kind of credit/debt that everybody else does because they have power over the nominal. The obsession with debt is largely a product of people being trained in "real" numbers and conflating them with nominal, among many other factors. Regardless, our government doesn't truly have any debt because it is its own creditor, and it can reform that "debt" instantaneously or through a myriad of ways. I forget when it was, but at one point we started calling government obligations "debt" even though they aren't debt in the traditional sense, perhaps because the concept in macroeconomics didn't have a better word.

Also I don't see how state education will collapse. Bureaucracies don't ever collapse because of mandatory revenue streams (taxes). A shift away from public education will involve some other market and legislative dynamics IMO

Another thing to keep in mind is that GDP is much higher now than it ever has been, and probably by a lot. We just can't account for it because it's all digital. Friedman was right when he said that as years progress, the internet will make the GDP/taxes ratio bigger and bigger, but he didn't appear to foresee that we wouldn't be able to quantify the difference. This is one reason I think reform isn't necessary, even if it would be helpful. Technological growth eventually defeats bureaucracies. Even if Medicare looks like it will go bankrupt in 30 years or whatever, that doesn't account for the incredible price reductions from technology. I guess the key is to keep prices from remaining artificially high due to regulations